IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

IREM Forecast

January 26, 2011The U.S. and Washington AreaEconomic Performance and OutlookStephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

Quarters After Trough% Change in GDPRecession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (2009 Recession has 6thQ added from GI Forecast)

Chart1

00000

0.760.080.670.860.4

2.461.321.11.391.63

3.83.61.491.92.57

6.25.642.611.923

77.833.72.333.66

7.59.924.773.155.39

1975-Q1

1982-Q3

1991-Q1

2001-Q4

2009-Q2

Sheet1

1975-Q11982-Q31991-Q12001-Q42009-Q2

000000

10.760.080.670.860.4

22.461.321.11.391.63

33.83.61.491.92.57

46.25.642.611.923

577.833.72.333.66

67.59.924.773.155.39

To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight*Projected **Actual

Quarter July 2009October 2010January 20112009 Q1 -5.5 -4.9** Q2 -2.1 -0.7** Q3 0.6 1.6** Q4 1.1 5.0**2010 Q1 1.4 3.7** Q2 2.7 1.7** Q3 2.3 1.5 2.6** Q4* 3.3 1.9 3.72011 Q1* 2.2 2.2 3.8 Q2* 2.2 3.1 Q3* 2.7 2.4 Q4* 3.7 3.3

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 2013

%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >

GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Chart1

5.4

1.4

0.1

3

0.9

3.2

2.3

2.9

-0.7

0.6

-4

-6.8

-4.9

-0.7

1.6

5

3.7

1.7

2.6

3.7

3.8

3.1

2.4

3.3

2.1

3.1

3.1

3

2.3

3.3

GDP

Sheet1

123412341234123412341234123412

GDP5.41.40.130.93.22.32.9-0.70.6-4-6.8-4.9-0.71.653.71.72.63.73.83.12.43.32.13.13.132.33.3

U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 December 2009(000s)Total - 8,363,000Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisRanked by Size in 2010


Chart1

-375

69

-377

-200

-474

-1795

-570

-2192

-544

-1206

-1563

791

35

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2Series 3

Information-3752.42

Federal Govt.694.42

Transp. & Util.-3771.83

Other Services-200

Wlse Trade-474

Construction-1,795

Financial-570

Manufacturing-2,192

Leisure & Hosp.-544

Retail Trade-1,206

Prof. & Bus. Svcs-1,563

Educ & Health Svcs791

State & Local Govt352.85


U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 December 2010(000s)Total = 1,124Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisRanked by Size in 2010


Chart1

-37

28

56

65

55

-1

-72

136

240

116

366

422

-250

Series 1

Sheet1


Information-372.42

Federal Govt.284.42

Transp. & Util.561.83

Other Services65

Wlse Trade55

Construction-1

Financial-72

Manufacturing136

Leisure & Hosp.240

Retail Trade116

Prof. & Bus. Svcs366


State & Local Govt-2502.85


U.S. Unemployment Rate%Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted9.4 %GI Fcst 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.2 7.5 6.9


Chart1

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.4

5.2

5.1

5.1

5

5

4.9

5.1

5

5

4.9

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.7

5

5

4.8

5.1

5

5.4

5.5

5.8

6.1

6.2

6.6

6.9

7.4

7.7

8.2

8.6

8.9

9.4

9.5

9.4

9.7

9.8

10.1

10

10

9.7

9.7

9.7

9.9

9.7

9.5

9.5

9.6

9.6

9.7

9.8

9.4

U.S.

Sheet1

Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10

U.S.5.75.75.65.85.65.65.65.55.45.45.45.45.45.25.45.25.15.1554.95.1554.94.74.84.74.74.64.64.84.74.64.44.54.54.64.54.44.54.54.54.64.64.74.84.7554.85.155.45.55.86.16.26.66.97.47.78.28.68.99.49.59.49.79.810.110109.79.79.79.99.79.59.59.69.69.79.89.4

Consumer Confidence100Present SituationExpectationsSource: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Chart1

125.491.9

130.596.3

133.994.4

137.193.8

138.587.9

133.588.2

136.190.1

129.988.8

138.394.4

130.189.2

121.285

11880

115.769.1

108.375.5

115.369.3

10458

90.649.4

81.950

74.247.3

65.441.4

65.343

63.252.8

66.166.5

43.535.7

42.346.2

30.244.2

29.742.5

22.327.3

21.930.2

25.551

29.771.5

2565.5

23.363.4

25.473.8

2373.7

21.167

2168.5

20.275.9

25.277.3

21.762.9

25.270.4

28.277.4

29.884.6

26.872.7

26.467.5

24.972

23.365.5

23.567.5

2474.2

Present

Expect

Sheet1

Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10

Present125.4130.5133.9137.1138.5133.5136.1129.9138.3130.1121.2118115.7108.3115.310490.681.974.265.465.363.266.143.542.330.229.722.321.925.529.72523.325.42321.12120.225.221.725.228.229.826.826.424.923.323.524

Expect91.996.394.493.887.988.290.188.894.489.2858069.175.569.35849.45047.341.44352.866.535.746.244.242.527.330.25171.565.563.473.873.76768.575.977.362.970.477.484.672.767.57265.567.574.2

Interest Rates2001 - 2015Forecast > > > > > >

Chart1

3.986.97

1.676.54

1.135.82

1.355.84

3.215.86

4.966.42

5.026.33

1.936.04

0.165.04

0.184.68

0.174.45

1.275.02

3.436.1

3.626.24

4.77.08

Fed

30-Yr

Sheet1

Fed30-YrSeries 3

20013.986.972

20021.676.542

20031.135.823

20041.355.845

20053.215.86

20064.966.42

20075.026.33

20081.936.04

20090.165.04

20100.184.68

20110.174.45

20121.275.02

20133.436.1

20143.626.24

20154.77.08

Consumer Prices2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >%Source: BLS, Global Insight

Chart1

2.8

1.6

2.3

2.7

3.4

3.2

2.9

3.8

-0.3

1.7

1.6

1.9

2

2.2

2.2

Cons $P

Sheet1

FedCons $PSeries 3

20013.982.82

20021.671.62

20031.132.33

20041.352.75

20053.213.4

20064.963.2

20075.022.9

20081.933.8

20090.14-0.3

20100.211.7

20111.71.6

20123.341.9

20133.552

20144.62.2

20152.2

Oil Prices$ per barrel$/barrelSource: Global InsightForecast > > > > > > > >


Chart1

41

57

66

72.2

99.8

61.8

78.9

82.83

89.16

93.02

96.27

100.2

Series 1

Sheet1


2004412.42

2005574.42

2006661.83

200772.22.85

200899.8

200961.8

201078.9

201182.83

201289.16

201393.02

201496.27

2015100.2

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays

%Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional AnalysisForecast > > > > >


Chart1

4.7

2.5

2.7

2.8

3.5

3.4

2.9

2.4

-0.3

-1.2

1.7

2.7

2.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

U.S.

Sheet1

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

U.S.4.72.52.72.83.53.42.92.4-0.3-1.21.72.72.41.82.22.6

Wash

Wash Proj

The Washington Economy


Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change12-MonthMoving Average

Chart1

-0.0090461383

-0.0036835146

0.0067707624

0.0144611007

0.0111964272

0.0050619558

0.0144416322

0.0097117708

0.0215692628

0.0173439007

0.0129748298

-0.0003262109

0.0091251833

-0.0033282966

-0.0260927678

-0.0065766749

0.0073798968

0.005832334

-0.005181391

0.0136767273

0.0014711816

0.0175113136

0.0088577913

0.0182041923

0.0185548322

0.0288142276

0.0319647844

0.0272657044

0.0102835006

0.0172826814

0.0241250466

0.0130273193

0.0304925686

0.0226129308

0.0143480563

0.0213197292

0.0097512096

0.0164440348

0.0139124726

-0.0045507511

0.0088875797

0.0060173582

0.0025937454

0.0041396863

-0.0131266954

-0.0101445479

0.0082911311

-0.0015976585

0.0102110133

0.0023805049

0.0072814453

0.0184955277

-0.0034490046

-0.0106778639

0.0010762722

-0.0102323035

0.0120361626

0.0073583291

-0.0030180145

-0.0069273693

-0.0089525582

0.0076190548

-0.0017604941

-0.0064157633

0.0044292195

0.0009777002

0.0019148285

0.0106301415

-0.0085066438

-0.0073141871

-0.016401701

-0.0046239256

-0.0097552568

-0.0272549472

-0.0306096986

-0.0313510878

-0.0313751412

-0.0297376609

-0.0305837417

-0.0266605049

-0.0171665976

-0.0269557311

-0.0211994638

-0.0326220154

-0.0244106685

-0.0284466409

-0.0208448208

-0.0064515491

0.0056996648

0.0058198187

0.0012

-0.0001

0.0001

0.0126

0.0145

0.0159

0.0153

0.015

0.035

0.023

0.0114

0.0059

0.00898

0.0124

0.0038

-0.0019

0.0159

Series 1

Sheet1


Jan-02-0.00904613832.42

Feb-02-0.00368351464.42

Mar-020.00677076241.83

Apr-020.01446110072.85

May-020.0111964272

Jun-020.0050619558

Jul-020.0144416322

Aug-020.0097117708

Sep-020.0215692628

Oct-020.0173439007

Nov-020.0129748298

Dec-02-0.0003262109

Jan-030.0091251833

Feb-03-0.0033282966

Mar-03-0.0260927678

Apr-03-0.0065766749

May-030.0073798968

Jun-030.005832334

Jul-03-0.005181391

Aug-030.0136767273

Sep-030.0014711816

Oct-030.0175113136

Nov-030.0088577913

Dec-030.0182041923

Jan-040.0185548322

Feb-040.0288142276

Mar-040.0319647844

Apr-040.0272657044

May-040.0102835006

Jun-040.0172826814

Jul-040.0241250466

Aug-040.0130273193

Sep-040.0304925686

Oct-040.0226129308

Nov-040.0143480563

Dec-040.0213197292

Jan-050.0097512096

Feb-050.0164440348

Mar-050.0139124726

Apr-05-0.0045507511

May-050.0088875797

Jun-050.0060173582

Jul-050.0025937454

Aug-050.0041396863

Sep-05-0.0131266954

Oct-05-0.0101445479

Nov-050.0082911311

Dec-05-0.0015976585

Jan-060.0102110133

Feb-060.0023805049

Mar-060.0072814453

Apr-060.0184955277

May-06-0.0034490046

Jun-06-0.0106778639

Jul-060.0010762722

Aug-06-0.0102323035

Sep-060.0120361626

Oct-060.0073583291

Nov-06-0.0030180145

Dec-06-0.0069273693

Jan-07-0.0089525582

Feb-070.0076190548

Mar-07-0.0017604941

Apr-07-0.0064157633

May-070.0044292195

Jun-070.0009777002

Jul-070.0019148285

Aug-070.0106301415

Sep-07-0.0085066438

Oct-07-0.0073141871

Nov-07-0.016401701

Dec-07-0.0046239256

Jan-08-0.0097552568

Feb-08-0.0272549472

Mar-08-0.0306096986

Apr-08-0.0313510878

May-08-0.0313751412

Jun-08-0.0297376609

Jul-08-0.0305837417

Aug-08-0.0266605049

Sep-08-0.0171665976

Oct-08-0.0269557311

Nov-08-0.0211994638

Dec-08-0.0326220154

Jan-09-0.0244106685

Feb-09-0.0284466409

Mar-09-0.0208448208

Apr-09-0.0064515491

May-090.0056996648

Jun-090.0058198187

Jul-090.0012

Aug-09-0.0001

Sep-090.0001

Oct-090.0126

Nov-090.0145

Dec-090.0159

Jan-100.0153

Feb-100.015

Mar-100.035

Apr-100.023

May-100.0114

Jun-100.0059

Jul-100.00898

Aug-100.0124

Sep-100.0038

Oct-10-0.0019

Nov-100.0159

Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2008 2009 2010Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Chart1

10

56

71

63

50

23

17

20

14

26

26

16

26

25

17

2

-10

-22

-25

-36

-45

-55

-58

-54

-56

-62

-76

-56

-55

-57

-28

-40

-8.7

7.9

16.1

22.4

41.6

18.7

52.3

44.6

49.2

Series 1

Sheet1


2002102.42

2003564.42

2004711.83

2005632.85

200650

200723

Jan17

Feb20

Mar14

Apr26

May26

Jun16

Jul26

Aug25

Sep17

Oct2

Nov-10

Dec-22

Jan-25

Feb-36

Mar-45

Apr-55

May-58

Jun-54

Jul-56

Aug-62

Sep-76

Oct-56

Nov-55

Dec-57

Jan-28

Feb-40

Mar-8.7

Apr7.9

May16.1

Jun22.4

Jul41.6

Aug18.7

Sep52.3

Oct44.6

Nov49.2

Job Change by SectorNov 2009 Nov 2010Washington MSA(000s)Total 49,200Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Chart1

1.5

0

-2.9

-2.6

1.3

-4.1

-4.5

10.2

13.4

0.9

12

10

18.5

Series 1

Sheet1


Transp. & Util.1.52.42

Wlse Trade04.42

Manufacturing-2.91.83

Information-2.6

Financial1.3

Other Services-4.1

Construction-4.5

Leisure & Hosp.10.2

Retail Trade13.4

State & Local Govt0.9


Federal Govt.10

Prof. & Bus. Svcs18.52.85


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov 09 Nov 10 (000s)Washington + 49,200Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Chart1

-9

4

-52

49

41

-2

10

27

5

2

-28

-32

23

26

12

Series 1

Sheet1


New York-92.42

Los Angeles44.42

Chicago-521.83

492.85

Dallas41

Philadelphia-2

Houston10

Boston27

Miami5

Atlanta2

Detroit-28

SF-Oakland-32

Minneapolis23

Phoenix26

Seattle12

10.2 DC9.3 U.S.

6.3 SMD6.0 MSA4.8 - NVAUnemployment RateSource: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Chart1

5.83.63690400476.96071832343.69734935782.8038519188

5.73.39775807246.6145219593.43289245872.6241004047

5.73.88634553437.17232333174.01703365083.0119652783

5.63.77744979657.11386656563.82398768682.9374219402

5.83.81606412657.68970025663.77680135762.9325191259

5.63.45100069586.94716560063.44102211322.6333125449

5.63.5996322147.18255120723.63610712532.733152672

5.64.0251016727.89338325744.09760196193.043629253

5.53.95060064298.44443887524.10473369842.7544974149

5.43.67511938987.28569248573.70883459062.7932201567

5.43.44053666577.26515873093.47997029782.514223624

5.43.47557083857.50843358163.58288642632.435983418

5.43.56930739157.65388687363.6775067522.5304889001

5.43.46259724727.81599663223.44874209612.4617105567

5.23.74843298396.98399567283.93213532132.7588714423

5.43.86635010867.53913587984.0584069732.813850872

5.23.61172787516.95752420323.75292489832.6431727899

5.13.36931987676.24174289423.45827517662.5832639884

5.13.57146937447.01034892553.68106028222.6670164649

53.77935902266.89519135193.96577310472.8562326995

53.54502961066.28704571763.91230984342.5430921419

4.93.41154721766.08813416783.53832934132.647531651

5.13.29013222755.92050504893.47471624032.5343071187

53.16006206425.90673803113.46553367122.3138951416

53.21484991836.01376900493.49799457622.3648400815

4.92.92800878075.92859770883.05209257572.1381419104

4.73.15131068565.6830632243.36937821952.3173516561

4.83.16024988495.80759406393.38849907022.3474602939

4.72.97706326655.66890000313.09126704432.2120815346

4.72.9039323375.43011891633.08181504962.1477606896

4.63.03198111475.82847287553.30073804242.1502040478

4.63.36451043725.88717898483.67699394552.478276824

4.83.44610652416.30164696653.8194979832.4128505288

4.73.26116138575.98304246753.45518240592.4268718651

4.63.06654107595.73254756363.27932101942.2834331905

4.42.86278633765.18836962053.26665179222.0238348736

4.52.95020415545.36578888863.29656569892.1243359456

4.52.85024527655.6341104063.01608875792.060913116

4.63.25322196575.85200221223.4770203732.3449082306

4.53.13466189855.45927315993.24432082822.30185146

4.42.88461473685.13982051522.93807262042.149744877

4.52.74656210784.85575181582.81921131032.0225056011

4.52.84519802215.15600333582.95664804282.0774007436

4.53.22347915955.62548922263.3702249432.3826500751

4.63.21639709635.72737823193.40782689462.2917623315

4.63.06961137635.42062995853.04367030162.352923955

4.73.02579601245.61489594213.05173981952.2394480877

4.82.96962980665.15818411023.07109086882.2257391094

4.72.96426335065.3918563462.93539419952.2726371896

53.03967188095.40943168962.91253365872.4109995714

4.93.50166096696.1746366793.29801146292.7608226125

4.83.34991401375.38820829973.23863781542.6595915137

5.13.41164297785.93134523323.11156571622.6992553754

53.04036211244.94027362912.96237304142.4396339826

5.53.52808669136.14545957223.49249176592.8083760311

5.53.85410570596.52483111873.92430132173.0800793355

5.74.08724709236.92879273154.12363484333.1216105287

6.14.08014681676.88926259344.04759377913.2634379162

6.13.93874639386.97824926414.04315161683.1000689808

6.54.11106676097.16788154494.32354237243.1975336252

6.84.47.75345695054.42296385763.4161947337

7.24.78.12301429864.65487072043.7971668728

8.55.58.84929216575.52578279254.6906387553

8.96.19.1978857795.97365887435.1583620096

95.98.76989869755.72389242465.1435735468

8.65.68.47834407585.52653850414.9543219034

9.16.29.86711628396.01410998615.2747336632

9.76.510.63270879576.47489473995.4541300234

9.76.210.01136253536.45471044145.0926770264

9.6610.76607714646.17836828955

9.56.211.21516239166.26491190125.1

9.56.211.67510094056.41715758224.9

9.46.111.5098233256.16742026964.8

9.76.211.94018141116.09319865954.9

10.6711.96828461366.995.8

10.46.911.70199686336.845.9

10.26.610.89668930346.565.8

9.55.99.78898129835.895

9.369.59624116416.085.2

9.66.410.47817757526.36767644575.3

9.66.310.34506966046.55047214725.2

9.56.29.99068516776.55.1

9.25.99.56.34.8

95.89.664.8

9.3610.26.34.8

US

Wsh

DC

Smd

NVA

Sheet1

Column1USWshDCSmdNVA

Nov-035.83.63690400476.96071832343.69734935782.8038519188

Dec-035.73.39775807246.6145219593.43289245872.6241004047

Jan-045.73.88634553437.17232333174.01703365083.0119652783

Feb-045.63.77744979657.11386656563.82398768682.9374219402

Mar-045.83.81606412657.68970025663.77680135762.9325191259

Apr-045.63.45100069586.94716560063.44102211322.6333125449

May-045.63.5996322147.18255120723.63610712532.733152672

Jun-045.64.0251016727.89338325744.09760196193.043629253

Jul-045.53.95060064298.44443887524.10473369842.7544974149

Aug-045.43.67511938987.28569248573.70883459062.7932201567

Sep-045.43.44053666577.26515873093.47997029782.514223624

Oct-045.43.47557083857.50843358163.58288642632.435983418

Nov-045.43.56930739157.65388687363.6775067522.5304889001

Dec-045.43.46259724727.81599663223.44874209612.4617105567

Jan-055.23.74843298396.98399567283.93213532132.7588714423

Feb-055.43.86635010867.53913587984.0584069732.813850872

Mar-055.23.61172787516.95752420323.75292489832.6431727899

Apr-055.13.36931987676.24174289423.45827517662.5832639884

May-055.13.57146937447.01034892553.68106028222.6670164649

Jun-0553.77935902266.89519135193.96577310472.8562326995

Jul-0553.54502961066.28704571763.91230984342.5430921419

Aug-054.93.41154721766.08813416783.53832934132.647531651

Sep-055.13.29013222755.92050504893.47471624032.5343071187

Oct-0553.16006206425.90673803113.46553367122.3138951416

Nov-0553.21484991836.01376900493.49799457622.3648400815

Dec-054.92.92800878075.92859770883.05209257572.1381419104

Jan-064.73.15131068565.6830632243.36937821952.3173516561

Feb-064.83.16024988495.80759406393.38849907022.3474602939

Mar-064.72.97706326655.66890000313.09126704432.2120815346

Apr-064.72.9039323375.43011891633.08181504962.1477606896

May-064.63.03198111475.82847287553.30073804242.1502040478

Jun-064.63.36451043725.88717898483.67699394552.478276824

Jul-064.83.44610652416.30164696653.8194979832.4128505288

Aug-064.73.26116138575.98304246753.45518240592.4268718651

Sep-064.63.06654107595.73254756363.27932101942.2834331905

Oct-064.42.86278633765.18836962053.26665179222.0238348736

Nov-064.52.95020415545.36578888863.29656569892.1243359456

Dec-064.52.85024527655.6341104063.01608875792.060913116

Jan-074.63.25322196575.85200221223.4770203732.3449082306

Feb-074.53.13466189855.45927315993.24432082822.30185146

Mar-074.42.88461473685.13982051522.93807262042.149744877

Apr-074.52.74656210784.85575181582.81921131032.0225056011

May-074.52.84519802215.15600333582.95664804282.0774007436

Jun-074.53.22347915955.62548922263.3702249432.3826500751

Jul-074.63.21639709635.72737823193.40782689462.2917623315

Aug-074.63.06961137635.42062995853.04367030162.352923955

Sep-074.73.02579601245.61489594213.05173981952.2394480877

Oct-074.82.96962980665.15818411023.07109086882.2257391094

Nov-074.72.96426335065.3918563462.93539419952.2726371896

Dec-0753.03967188095.40943168962.91253365872.4109995714

Jan-084.93.50166096696.1746366793.29801146292.7608226125

Feb-084.83.34991401375.38820829973.23863781542.6595915137

Mar-085.13.41164297785.93134523323.11156571622.6992553754

Apr-0853.04036211244.94027362912.96237304142.4396339826

May-085.53.52808669136.14545957223.49249176592.8083760311

Jun-085.53.85410570596.52483111873.92430132173.0800793355

Jul-085.74.08724709236.92879273154.12363484333.1216105287

Aug-086.14.08014681676.88926259344.04759377913.2634379162

Sep-086.13.93874639386.97824926414.04315161683.1000689808

Oct-086.54.11106676097.16788154494.32354237243.1975336252

Nov-086.84.47.75345695054.42296385763.4161947337

Dec-087.24.78.12301429864.65487072043.7971668728

Jan-098.55.58.84929216575.52578279254.6906387553

Feb-098.96.19.1978857795.97365887435.1583620096

Mar-0995.98.76989869755.72389242465.1435735468

Apr-098.65.68.47834407585.52653850414.9543219034

May-099.16.29.86711628396.01410998615.2747336632

Jun-099.76.510.63270879576.47489473995.4541300234

Jul-099.76.210.01136253536.45471044145.0926770264

Aug-099.6610.76607714646.17836828955

Sep-099.56.211.21516239166.26491190125.1

Oct-099.56.211.67510094056.41715758224.9

Nov-099.46.111.5098233256.16742026964.8

Dec-099.76.211.94018141116.09319865954.9

Jan-1010.6711.96828461366.995.8

Feb-1010.46.911.70199686336.845.9

Mar-1010.26.610.89668930346.565.8

Apr-109.55.99.78898129835.895

May-109.369.59624116416.085.2

Jun-109.66.410.47817757526.36767644575.3

Jul-109.66.310.34506966046.55047214725.2

Aug-109.56.29.99068516776.55.1

Sep-109.25.99.56.34.8

Oct-1095.89.664.8

Nov-109.3610.26.34.8

Economic Forecast


Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

20082009201020112012201320142015D.C.10.1 -0.610.810.39.79.69.39.4Sub. MD-4.3-26.81.515.013.615.314.914.6No. VA3.7-24.59.521.520.722.922.320.3REGION9.5-51.921.546.844.047.846.544.2


Economic Outlook (GRP) 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)%DCSMMSANVSource: GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Chart1

2.53.43.1-0.3

3.75.23.51.2

4.45.842.3

4.95.653.3

4.54.64.63.2

44.44.22.8

3.14.13.62.5

1.51.61.41.3

-0.8-1-1.20.7

3.33.82.72.3

3.3432.5

3.54.33.42.6

3.64.53.62.7

3.74.53.72.8

3.54.33.52.6

MSA

NVA

SMD

DC

Sheet1

200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

MSA2.53.74.44.94.543.11.5-0.83.33.33.53.63.73.5

NVA3.45.25.85.64.64.44.11.6-13.844.34.54.54.3

SMD3.13.5454.64.23.61.4-1.22.733.43.63.73.5

DC-0.31.22.33.33.22.82.51.30.72.32.52.62.72.82.6

%Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGDP/GRP 2000 - 2015WashingtonU.S.


Chart1

4.120005.82000

1.120012.52001

1.820023.72002

2.520034.42003

3.620044.92004

3.120054.52005

2.7200642006

1.920073.12007

020081.52008

-2.62009-0.82009

2.92.93.53.5

20113.220113.8

20122.920123.5

20133.120133.7

20143.320143.8

2015320153.5

US

US -Pro

Wsh

Wsh-Pro

Sheet1

USUS -ProWshWsh-Pro

20004.15.8

20011.12.5

20021.83.7

20032.54.4

20043.64.9

20053.14.5

20062.74

20071.93.1

200801.5

2009-2.6-0.8

20102.92.93.53.5

20113.23.8

20122.93.5

20133.13.7

20143.33.8

201533.5

policy-cra.gmu.org


GMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analyis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analyis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis*GMU Center for Regional AnalysisGMU Center for Regional Analysis

IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

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