I. Policy Cost Analysis The policy cost analysis was recommended in a report on fundamental FILP reform by the Fund Management Council in November 1997 to secure the disclosure on the future public financial burdens and fiscal soundness and was test implemented in FY1999 before full implementation from FY2001. While loans for FILP projects are basically repaid by beneficiaries of these projects, subsidies and investments are disbursed from the government (e.g. General Account, etc.) to the implementers of these projects to ease the burden on beneficiaries. The policy cost analysis represents the estimation of future subsidies for these projects and opportunity costs (interest payment alleviation effect) through past investments for the purpose of determining the adequateness of these projects. The estimation results of the policy cost analysis are published to enhance the disclosure on the future public financial burdens and the transparency of FILP. The policy cost analysis projects future cash flow for FILP-using projects for each FILP agency on certain preconditions to estimate the following three values: (1) Value of subsidies expected to be provided by the government in the future (2) Value of expected future payments to the government and corporation tax payments (3) Value of opportunity costs of past investments and non-interest-bearing loans The estimates are converted into president discounted values to compute policy cost as (1)-(2)+(3). ○政策コストのイメージ Image of “Policy Cost” Opportunity costs of capital investments and interest-free loans (= substantial subsidies for interest payment) [1] Subsidies, etc. (Funds expected to be disbursed by the government in the future) Subsidies [2] Payment to the government /corporate tax, etc. (Funds expected to be paid to the government in the future) Payment to the government/corporate tax ( [1] - [2] & Calculating the present values ) [3] Opportunity costs attributable to investments, etc. (= interest payment alleviation effect) (conceptual cost not disbursed by the government) Capital investment and interest-free loans Policy cost = [1] Subsidies – [2] Payments to the government /corporate tax + [3] Opportunity cost 1
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I.Policy Cost Analysis...II.Points of the FY2018 analysis 1.Policy cost total In FY2018, 24 FILP agencies conducted policy cost analyses, computing their total policy cost at negative
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I. Policy Cost Analysis
The policy cost analysis was recommended in a report on fundamental FILP reform by the Fund
Management Council in November 1997 to secure the disclosure on the future public financial
burdens and fiscal soundness and was test implemented in FY1999 before full implementation from
FY2001.
While loans for FILP projects are basically repaid by beneficiaries of these projects, subsidies and
investments are disbursed from the government (e.g. General Account, etc.) to the implementers of
these projects to ease the burden on beneficiaries. The policy cost analysis represents the estimation
of future subsidies for these projects and opportunity costs (interest payment alleviation effect)
through past investments for the purpose of determining the adequateness of these projects. The
estimation results of the policy cost analysis are published to enhance the disclosure on the future
public financial burdens and the transparency of FILP.
The policy cost analysis projects future cash flow for FILP-using projects for each FILP agency
on certain preconditions to estimate the following three values:
(1) Value of subsidies expected to be provided by the government in the future
(2) Value of expected future payments to the government and corporation tax payments
(3) Value of opportunity costs of past investments and non-interest-bearing loans
The estimates are converted into president discounted values to compute policy cost as (1)-(2)+(3).
○政策コストのイメージ
<①-② の現在価値を求める>
① 補助金等(将来、国から支出されると見込まれる金額)
③ 出資金等による機会費用(=利払軽減効果)(国から支出されない概念上の費用)
② 国庫納付・法人税等(将来、国に納付されると見込まれる金額)
政策コスト= ①補助金等-②国庫納付等+③機会費用
出資金・無利子貸付
出資金・無利子貸付の機会費用(実質的な利子補給金)
補助金
国庫納付・法人税
Image of “Policy Cost”
Opportunity costs of capital investments and interest-free loans (= substantial subsidies for interest payment)
[1] Subsidies, etc. (Funds expected to be disbursed by the government in the future)
Subsidies
[2] Payment to the government /corporate tax, etc. (Funds expected to be paid to the government in the future)
Payment to the government/corporate tax
( [1] - [2] & Calculating the present values )
[3] Opportunity costs attributable to investments, etc. (= interest payment alleviation effect) (conceptual cost not disbursed by the government)
Capital investment and interest-free loans
Policy cost = [1] Subsidies – [2] Payments to the government /corporate tax + [3] Opportunity cost
1
II. Points of the FY2018 analysis
1. Policy cost total
In FY2018, 24 FILP agencies conducted policy cost analyses, computing their total policy cost
at negative 804.0 billion yen, up 624.0 billion yen from negative 1,428.0 billion yen for FY2017
analyses (25 agencies).
The total policy cost is broken down as follows into category (1) to category (3) mentioned
above on page 1.
(Unit: billion yen)
Policy cost ((1)+(2)+(3))
(1) Subsidies,etc. from thegovernment
(2) Paymentsto the
government
(3) Opportunity cost for the government
Capital investments, etc. provided
before the beginning of the analysis
period
Surplus, etc. expected to be generated during the analysis period
FY2018 - 804.0 1,686.6 - 6,653.0 4,162.4 7,222.7 - 3,060.3FY2017 - 1,428.0 1,784.8 - 6,506.8 3,294.0 5,008.3 - 1,714.3It must be noted that the policy cost value widely fluctuates depending on interest rates and
other assumptions for the estimation. Among changes from the FY2017 analysis, (3) opportunity
cost for the government posts a major increase due to an assumed interest rate change.
(See p. 6 for effective changes excluding effects of an assumed interest rate)
<<Assumed interest rate>>
In the policy cost analysis, the future interest rate and discount factor are computed based on
spot market yields on government bonds (Note) on the day when the annual budget proposal is
decided (December 22, 2017, for the FY2018 analysis) and set as common assumptions.
(Note) If spot yields are negative, the future interest rate is regarded as 0% and the discount factor as 1.
Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations +20.3 +13.8Account for SME Loan Programs and Securitization Support Programs [Guarantee-type Operations] +219.2 +198.3
Account for Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food Business Operations +139.9 +137.5
Account for Operations to Facilitate Crisis Responses -18.0 -17.7Account for Operations to Facilitate Specific Businesses Promotion, etc. -0.1 -0.0
Japan Bank for International Cooperation +90.0 +101.6Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +990.6 +769.9
Japan Student Services Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +25.0 +48.9
Welfare And Medical Service Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +34.5 +22.0
Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities +203.2 +261.7
Development Bank of Japan Inc. +570.6 +587.1
7 other agencies +32.8 +32.5
Pro
ject
Ins
titu
tion
s
National Hospital Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +107.5 +103.5
National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (National Research and Development Agency) +6.6 +7.8
Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) (Construction Account) -60.5 -69.6
Welfare And Medical Service Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) -33.5 2.1 0.7 -36.3
Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities -557.3 1.1 - -558.4
Development Bank of Japan Inc. -378.5 0.8 52.1 -431.4
7 other agencies 31.7 4.2 53.0 -25.6
(Note) A breakdown of each agency’s policy cost by causative factor is estimated based on assumptions including
analysis periods and business projections differing from agency to agency. Their simple totals are as follows:
FY2018 (14 agencies) FY2017 (14 agencies)
Effect of prepayments 89.9 billion yen 87.1 billion yen
Effect of loan losses 1,524.8 billion yen 1,741.1 billion yen
Effect of the others (profit margin, etc.) - 1,405.8 billion yen - 1,538.8 billion yen
12
○The main classification of 24 agencies that analyze FY2018 policy cost
(Reference 1) Breakdown of FY2018 policy cost by investment field (by component)
Broken down the FY2018 policy cost in line with the FY2018 FILP Classification Table by Purpose[Note] For agencies falling under multiple classification categories, their policy cost for FY2018 is prorated inaccordance with the ratios appropriated at the time of preparing the abovementioned classification table.
Classification
SMEs and micro enterprises
Agriculture, forestry andfisheries
Institutions
Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food Business Operations), The OkinawaDevelopment Finance Corporation, Japan Water Agency
Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations, and for SME Loan Programs andSecuritization Support Programs), The Okinawa Development Finance Corporation
Environment
Welfare/medical care
Education
Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (General Account for Metal Mining)
The Okinawa Development Finance Corporation, The Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools of Japan,Welfare and Medical Service Agency, National Hospital Organization, National Cancer Center, National Cerebral andCardiovascular Center, National Center for Child Health and Development, National Institution for Academic Degrees and QualityEnhancement of Higher Education, Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities
Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations), The Okinawa Development FinanceCorporation, The Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools of Japan, Japan Student Services Organization, JapanFinance Organization for Municipalities
Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Operations to Facilitate Crisis Responses)
Japan Bank for International Cooperation (Ordinary Operations, Special Operations), Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA)
Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Construction Account), Urban Renaissance Agency, JapanExpressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency, Japan Water Agency, Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities, ForestResearch and Management Organization, New Kansai International Airport Co., Ltd., Organization for Promoting UrbanDevelopment, Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd.
Japan Housing Finance Agency, Urban Renaissance Agency, Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities
Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Operations to Facilitate Specific Business Promotion, etc.), The Okinawa DevelopmentFinance Corporation, Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Maritime Affairs Account), Japan Oil, Gasand Metals National Corporation (Account for Oil and Natural Gas), Development Bank of Japan Inc.
Industry/innovation
Others
Overseas investment andloans
Social capital
Housing
Agriculture,forestry and
fisheries 5.4%
Education0.3% Environment
0.001%
Industry/innovation1.0%
Housing
13.7%
Social capital38.8%
Overseas investment and
loans27.9%
Others
16.5%
<Opportunity cost for the Government: 4,162.4 billion yen>
SMEs and micro enterprises
8.4%
Agriculture, forestry and
fisheries5.0%
Education
8.0%Welfare/medical
care
9.5%
Environment0.03%Industry/innovation
0.1%
Housing5.8%
Social capital63.0%
Others0.0%
SMEs and micro enterprises
0.1%
Agriculture, forestry and
fisheries2.9%
Education0.3%
Welfare/medical care0.1%
Environment
0.001%Industry/
innovation
6.5%
Housing
67.4%
Social capital8.2%
Overseas investment and loans
14.5%
<Subsidies, etc. from the Government: 1,686.6 billion yen>
Cost-benefit analysis manual for land readjustment projects
Benefits from land price changes through improvement of profit for owners of redeveloped office buildings, and convenience and comfort for residents under land readjustment, urban redevelopment or resident land development projects in major urban regions
Projects to renew urban functions (urban renewal)
Cost-benefit analysis manual for urban redevelopment projects
Residential environment development projects
Cost-benefit analysis manual for residential development projects
Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)
Expressway projects Cost-benefit analysis manual
User benefits from shortening of travel time, savings of fuel and other transportation costs and reduction of traffic accidents through use of expressways and other toll roads
Japan Water Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)
Construction of canals (for agricultural water)
Basic data required for cost-benefit analysis for land improvement projects, etc.
Farming cost savings, crop production effects, etc. through construction of canals (for agricultural water)
Construction of canals (for city water)
Cost-benefit analysis for water supply projects
Reduction of water supply decline/disruption damage from drought and other disasters through construction of canals (for city water)
Construction of canals (for industrial water)
Guidelines for policy assessment involving industrial water supply
Reduction of industrial water procurement costs through
16
projects construction of canals (for industrial water) and avoidance of facility destruction risks through enhancement of earthquake resistance
Forest Research and Management Organization (National Research and Development Agency)
Forestation for water conservation
Project assessment manual for forestry public works projects
Reservoir recharging benefits, mountain conservation benefits, environmental conservation benefits and timber production benefits through forestation at water source forests
Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd.
Airport improvement project
Cost-benefit analysis manual for airport development projects, Ver. 4
User benefits, supplier benefits, regional business and resident benefits
Organization for PromotingUrban Development(General IncorporatedFoundation)
Central Japan InternationalAirport Co., Ltd.
Note: Figures may not add up to the total because of rounding.
Japan Finance Organizationfor Municipalities
Forest Research and ManagementOrganization(National Research andDevelopment Agency)(Water Conservation ForestAccount)
Japan Oil, Gas and MetalsNational Corporation(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)
General Account forMetal Mining
Japan Expressway Holding andDebt Repayment Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
20
(Unit: billion yen)
FY2018 -804.0 5,921
FY2017 -1,428.0 6,566 645
Fluctuation +624.0
(Real fluctuation) (+31.9)
-592.1
Impact of assumed interest: -656.6 +64.5
FY2017 -1,433.0
Fluctuation +629.0
(Real fluctuation) (+36.9)
<Government Financial Institutions>
FY2018 822.5
FY2017 842.1
Fluctuation -19.7 (Real fluctuation) (+108.3)
+24.3Impact of assumed interest: +4.7 +19.5
FY2017 63.8 ↑
Fluctuation -36.6 (Real fluctuation) (-12.3)
+7.8Impact of assumed interest: -9.5 +17.2
FY2017 68.3 ↑
Fluctuation +30.9 (Real fluctuation) (+38.7)
+9.3Impact of assumed interest: +2.6 +6.7
FY2017 9.4 ↑
Fluctuation -2.7 (Real fluctuation) (+6.6)
+86.5Impact of assumed interest: +0.0 +86.5
FY2017 699.9 ↑
Fluctuation -11.5 (Real fluctuation) (+75.0)
+0.1Impact of assumed interest: +0.0 +0.1
FY2017 0.7 ↑
Fluctuation +0.2 (Real fluctuation) (+0.3)
-0.4Impact of assumed interest: -1.3 +0.9
FY2017 0.9 ↑
Fluctuation +5.5 (Real fluctuation) (+5.1)
FY2017 71.7
Fluctuation -14.9 (Real fluctuation) (-50.6)
-34.0Impact of assumed interest: -9.7 -24.3
FY2017 68.1 ↑
Fluctuation -15.1 (Real fluctuation) (-49.1)
-1.7Impact of assumed interest: -0.9 -0.8
FY2017 3.7 ↑
Fluctuation +0.2 (Real fluctuation) (-1.5)
+20.3Impact of assumed interest: +42.9 -22.6
FY2017 173.2 ↑
Fluctuation -35.8 (Real fluctuation) (-15.5)
2: In the "Primary Cause of Real Fluctuation" column, "Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation" is the total of the Impact of assumed interest plus Policy cost during FY2017.
3: A breakdown of policy cost by causative factor was estimated and noted for agencies with a mark in the Remarks column.
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: -11.4Bad debt write-off: -47.4Advanced redemption: +1.2Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +8.4
27
Account for OrdinaryOperations
FY2018 3.8 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
20
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: -56.1Bad debt write-off: +1.2Advanced redemption: +0.3Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +53.1
20
Account for Special Operations
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: -4.6Bad debt write-off: +1.7Advanced redemption: +4.0Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +4.0
37
Japan Bank for InternationalCooperation
FY2018 56.8
FY2018 52.9 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
26
Note 1: Figures may not add up to the total because of rounding.
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: +42.8Bad debt write-off: -80.2Finalization of FY2016 results: -41.6Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +63.5
40
Japan International CooperationAgency (JICA)(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)
FY2018 137.4 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
50
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
Increase in scale of new projects covered by loss indemnification, etc.: +75.020
Account for Operations toFacilitate Specific BusinessesPromotion, etc.
FY2018 1.0 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
20
Account for Operations toFacilitate Crisis Responses
FY2018 688.3 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
20
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
Increase in clerical costs, etc. : +0.320
The Okinawa DevelopmentFinance Corporation
FY2018 6.4 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
37
◎
◎
Account for Agriculture,Forestry, Fisheries and FoodBusiness Operations
FY2018 99.2 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
60
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: -122.1Bad debt write-off: +29.9Advanced redemption: +6.0Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +74.0
31
Account for SME LoanPrograms and SecuritizationSupport Programs [Guarantee-type Operations]
FY2018 6.6 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
21
◎
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: +9.4Bad debt write-off: +14.2Advanced redemption: -10.6Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +25.8
60
Japan Finance Corporation
Account for Micro Businessand Individual Operations
FY2018 27.3 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
31
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: -70.9Bad debt write-off: -2.5Advanced redemption: +0.5Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +79.5
21
Institutions Policy Cost Primary Cause of Real FluctuationAnalysisperiod(years)
Note
Total ① (Simple addition)
Total ②(For FILP agencies [their accounts]for both FY2017 and FY2018)
FY2018 -804.0 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
Policy cost during FY2017:
4. FY2018 Policy Cost Analysis Table (Past year comparison)
21
Institutions Policy Cost Primary Cause of Real FluctuationAnalysisperiod(years)
Note
<Incorporated Administrative Agencies, etc.>
+1.5Impact of assumed interest: +0.3 +1.2
FY2017 -0.1 ↑
Fluctuation -2.9 (Real fluctuation) (-1.4)
+11.8Impact of assumed interest: +1.5 +10.3
FY2017 145.4 ↑
Fluctuation -15.3 (Real fluctuation) (-3.5)
+5.1Impact of assumed interest: -0.5 +5.6
FY2017 -20.5 ↑
Fluctuation -13.1 (Real fluctuation) (-7.9)
+4.9Impact of assumed interest: -17.9 +22.8
FY2017 129.8 ↑
Fluctuation -20.5 (Real fluctuation) (-15.6)
-2.0Impact of assumed interest: -2.5 +0.5
FY2017 6.3 ↑
Fluctuation +1.1 (Real fluctuation) (-1.0)
+0.2Impact of assumed interest: -0.6 +0.9
FY2017 15.3 ↑
Fluctuation -0.6 (Real fluctuation) (-0.4)
-0.0Impact of assumed interest: -0.0 +0.0
FY2017 4.8 ↑
Fluctuation -1.1 (Real fluctuation) (-1.1)
-
Impact of assumed interest: - -
FY2017 5.0 ↑
Fluctuation -5.0 (Real fluctuation)
+0.1Impact of assumed interest: +0.0 +0.1
FY2017 0.4 ↑
Fluctuation -0.1 (Real fluctuation) (+0.0)
FY2017 1,026.4
Fluctuation -64.0 (Real fluctuation) (+6.8)
+71.7Impact of assumed interest: -0.0 +71.8
FY2017 1,040.1 ↑
Fluctuation -67.4 (Real fluctuation) (+4.3)
-0.9Impact of assumed interest: -0.0 -0.9
FY2017 -13.7 ↑
Fluctuation +3.4 (Real fluctuation) (+2.5)
-
Impact of assumed interest: - -
FY2017 - ↑
Fluctuation - (Real fluctuation)
2: In the "Primary Cause of Real Fluctuation" column, "Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation" is the total of the Impact of assumed interest plus Policy cost during FY2017.
3: A breakdown of policy cost by causative factor was estimated and noted for agencies with a mark in the Remarks column.
Policy cost during FY2017:
Medical service income increase: -1.3Increase in operating cost grants related to policy medical care: +0.2
13
National Center for Geriatricsand Gerontology(National Research andDevelopment Agency)
FY2018 - Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
-
Policy cost during FY2017:
Increase in clerical costs : +0.030
National Institution for AcademicDegrees and QualityEnhancement of HigherEducation(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
FY2018 0.3 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
26
National Cerebral andCardiovascular Center(National Research andDevelopment Agency)
Policy cost during FY2017:
Depreciation cost decrease, etc.: -5.3Asset sale profit decrease, etc.: +4.9
27
National Cancer Center(National Research andDevelopment Agency)
Note 1: Figures may not add up to the total because of rounding.
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:Policy cost during FY2017:
FY2018 14.7
FY2018 7.3
FY2018
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: +7.0Bad debt write-off: +0.7Finalization of FY2016 results: -13.0Other e.g. (operating revenue increase): -2.6 37
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:16
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
Income decrease due to business asset decrease: +2.4Other e.g. (decrease in reversal of loan loss reserves): +0.1
16
Construction Account
FY2018 972.7 27
28
Maritime Affairs Account
◎
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: +7.0Impact of collection ration: -1.2Advanced redemption: -1.5Other e.g. (revenue increase): -7.8 26
Policy cost during FY2017:
Increase in medical service cost: +35.0Research income increase, etc.: -41.4Other e.g. (Reduction in surplus): +5.4
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:26
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:29
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:26
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:26
Japan Student ServicesOrganization (IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)
FY2018 130.1 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
26
Subsidy increase accompanying a rise in FILP projects’ share of subsidized projects: +4.3
Grant Account
FY2018 - Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
-Policy cost during FY2017:
[Exempt from analysis in FY2018]39
-10.3
Japan Railway Construction,Transport and TechnologyAgency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
29
Policy cost during FY2017:
Decrease in operating cost grants related to policy medical care : -40.4Reduction in surplus : +24.8
29
FY2018
962.4
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: -2.7Bad debt write-off: -0.7Finalization of FY2016 results: -0.1Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +2.1 26
The Promotion and Mutual AidCorporation for Private Schoolsof Japan (Grant Account)
FY2018 -3.0
National Hospital Organization(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
Policy cost during FY2017:
[Exempt from analysis in FY2018]31
Welfare And Medical ServiceAgency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)(General Account)
38
National Center for Child Healthand Development(National Research andDevelopment Agency)
FY2018 -33.5
FY2018 3.6 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
12
◎
FY2018 109.3
22
Institutions Policy Cost Primary Cause of Real FluctuationAnalysisperiod(years)
Note
+8.0Impact of assumed interest: -1.0 +8.9
FY2017 67.8 ↑
Fluctuation -27.0 (Real fluctuation) (-19.0)
-406.5Impact of assumed interest: -403.4 -3.1
FY2017 -4,352.6 ↑
Fluctuation +502.3 (Real fluctuation) (+95.8)
-221.5Impact of assumed interest: -224.8 +3.4
FY2017 838.7 ↑
Fluctuation +245.4 (Real fluctuation) (+23.9)
+19.2Impact of assumed interest: +1.2 +18.0
FY2017 58.1 ↑
Fluctuation +12.7 (Real fluctuation) (+31.9)
-121.2Impact of assumed interest: -0.8 -120.5
FY2017 -631.4 ↑
Fluctuation +74.1 (Real fluctuation) (-47.1)
-19.2Impact of assumed interest: -20.5 +1.3
FY2017 676.1 ↑
Fluctuation +36.4 (Real fluctuation) (+17.3)
FY2017 0.5
Fluctuation +0.0 (Real fluctuation) (+0.1)
+0.1Impact of assumed interest: +0.0 +0.1
FY2017 0.5 ↑
Fluctuation +0.0 (Real fluctuation) (+0.1)
-
Impact of assumed interest: - -
FY2017 - ↑
Fluctuation +0.0 (Real fluctuation)
<Special Corporations, etc.>
-22.0Impact of assumed interest: +13.6 -35.7
FY2017 -342.1 ↑
Fluctuation -36.4 (Real fluctuation) (-58.4)
-31.6Impact of assumed interest: -30.0 -1.6
FY2017 -74.4 ↑
Fluctuation -10.2 (Real fluctuation) (-41.9)
-0.6Impact of assumed interest: -0.0 -0.6
FY2017 -4.7 ↑
Fluctuation +1.7 (Real fluctuation) (+1.0)
-1.4Impact of assumed interest: -0.0 -1.4
FY2017 -64.6 ↑
Fluctuation +11.5 (Real fluctuation) (+10.1)
2: In the "Primary Cause of Real Fluctuation" column, "Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation" is the total of the Impact of assumed interest plus Policy cost during FY2017.
3: A breakdown of policy cost by causative factor was estimated and noted for agencies with a mark in the Remarks column.
Policy cost during FY2017:
Opportunity cost increase accompanying extension of analysis periods through new projects, etc.:+23.9
34
Japan Expressway Holding andDebt Repayment Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
FY2018 1,084.1 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
35
Organization for PromotingUrban Development (GeneralIncorporated Foundation)
FY2018
26Policy cost during FY2017:
Forest Research and ManagementOrganization(National Research andDevelopment Agency)(Water Conservation ForestAccount)
FY2018 712.5 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
89
FY2018 -84.7 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
41
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: -2.4Bad debt write-off: -0.4Finalization of FY2016 results: +4.0Other e.g. (decrease in clerical costs) : -0.2 21
New financing : -76.9Bad debt write-off: +2.9Advanced redemption: -0.1Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +15.7
-378.5 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
Note 1: Figures may not add up to the total because of rounding.
◎
26
Development Bank of Japan Inc.
FY2018
-3.0 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
20
Policy cost during FY2017:
Decrease in surplus due to new capital investment: +3.7Increase in estimated demand: -1.4Increase in clerical costs : +7.8 18
Policy cost during FY2017:
Increase in surplus, etc. due to revision of income and expenditure projections: -41.942
Central Japan InternationalAirport Co., Ltd.
FY2018 -53.1 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
17
New Kansai International AirportCo., Ltd.
Policy cost during FY2017:
Capital subscription increase: +3.7Timber sales revenue decrease: +13.6
89
0.5
General Account for MetalMining
FY2018 0.5 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
16
Japan Housing Finance Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
FY2018 40.8 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
40
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
New financing: +6.3Bad debt write-off: -11.9Finalization of FY2016 results: -11.9Decrease in clerical costs : -1.4 40
Japan Finance Organization forMunicipalities
FY2018 -557.3
Japan Water Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
FY2018 70.8 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
Increase in clerical cost due to new financing, etc.: +0.116
Policy cost during FY2017:
Increase in subsidies: +12.9Reduction in surplus : +21.1Other e.g. (Investment profit increase): -2.1 31
Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:19
Policy cost during FY2017:
Decrease in payment to the treasury due to increase in rental housing business expenses, etc.: +67.5Increase in receipts of subsidies, etc.: +30.9Other e.g. (Capital subscription decrease): -2.6 80
Account for Oil and NaturalGas
FY2018 0.0 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:
14
◎
Japan Oil, Gas and MetalsNational Corporation(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)
FY2018
◎
Policy cost during FY2017:
Gap between projected and actual fundraising interest rates, etc.: -47.120