November 19, 2020 Investment Strategy 2021 Market Outlook Brian G. Belski Chief Investment Strategist BMO Capital Markets Corp. 212-885-4151 [email protected]Nicholas Roccanova, CFA Sr. Investment Strategist BMO Capital Markets Corp. 212-885-4179 [email protected]Ryan Bohren, CFA Investment Strategist BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. 416- 359-4993 [email protected]Andrew Birstingl Associate BMO Capital Markets Corp. 212-885-4172 [email protected]This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by a Canadian affiliate, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst’s Certification, please refer to pages 32 to 34. ~16:05 ET
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November 19, 2020
Investment Strategy
2021 Market Outlook
Brian G. Belski Chief Investment Strategist BMO Capital Markets Corp. 212 -885 -4151 [email protected]
Nicholas Roccanova, CFA Sr. Investment Strategist BMO Capital Markets Corp. 212 -885 -4179 [email protected]
Ryan Bohren, CFA Investment Strategist BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. 416 -359 -4993 [email protected]
Andrew Birstingl Associate BMO Capital Markets Corp. 212 -885 -4172 [email protected]
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by a Canadian affiliate, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst’s Certification, please refer to pages 32 to 34. ~16:05 ET
Not to state the obvious, but there was no template or historical playbook when it came to forecasting
the stock market, let alone investing in 2020. One of the traps and/or tools of the trade of investment
strategy is to look to the past to provide potential guideposts for future activity. While historical analysis
is certainly helpful during periods of normalized performance, earnings growth, valuation metrics and
macro conditions– 2020 was far from normal. To be sure, 2020 was a year that will go down in the
history books for far too many important and obvious reasons relative to the world. As such, it is safe to
say that personal and professional lives intertwined more than any time in history in 2020, in our view.
Therefore, periods of heightened emotion, fear, rhetoric and overreaction clearly impacted decision-
making in both habitats, helping to define one of the most unprecedented stock market periods in
history. Granted, a once-in-a-century global pandemic, a month-long cyclical bear market, massive
amounts of fiscal stimulus and Fed intervention, a compressed recession and a contentious US
presidential election tend to rattle the cages. All of this only fueled the preponderance of negativity that
has surrounded Wall Street for most of the past 20 years. In fact, we believe this “pre-destined
negativity” has never been more evident than during the depths of the global pandemic chaos in 1Q,
leading up to a “pessimistic crescendo” thanks in part to the election fiasco, and likely another wave of
the pandemic in 4Q. Moreover, the need to make “the call” by investors and pundits alike was never
more prevalent in 2020 (e.g., calls for the next great depression, negative interest rates, value over
growth, cyclicals and small cap revival to name a few). Such behavior led many investors we interact
with to make excessively binary decisions, tactics that lacked process, discipline and most of the time
facts and analysis, in our view. Unfortunately, behaviors are hard to unwind – and will likely continue to
define stock market trends for several more quarters, if not years. As such, we believe the believability
factor of the bull market will once again be in question in 2021. While sharp price moves will
undoubtedly be defined by continued investor indecision and lack of commitment, we believe the
majority of apprehension will center on the validity of unprecedented earnings growth as fundamentals
more broadly recover from the depths of 2020. Therefore, investors should brace themselves to rely less
on traditional variables or models and be prepared to incorporate some more unconventional methods
to value and assess the market overall.
Unprecedented Ingredients Beseech Unrivaled Results Again in 2021
Even with recent positive vaccine and treatment developments, the global pandemic and its
unprecedented impact is unlikely to fade in coming months. As such, the massive fiscal and monetary
response in the US and around the world (also unprecedented) will likely remain in place to combat its
negative economic impact for the foreseeable future. Such environments have historically supported
continued stock market gains and we see no reason why 2021 will be any different. Yes, valuations
appear stretched at first glance, but they also need to be considered within the context of historically
low interest rates and little inflation, ingredients that are likely to persist throughout 2021 and beyond,
in our view. When viewed through this lens, we believe it is not unreasonable for market valuation to
sustain (or even expand slightly) from its current level. In addition, we believe corporate earnings
growth is poised to recover sharply from pandemic lows, particularly during 2H, since much of the
damage was lockdown specific and not necessarily related to companies themselves. In fact, aside from
the global financial crisis, 2020 represented the swiftest quarter-over-quarter earnings collapse for the
S&P 500 where index EPS plummeted nearly 50% during 1Q. Thus, we anticipate that 2021 has the
potential to be one of the best years ever in terms of earnings growth, something we believe will also
help to push stock prices higher.
Investment Strategy | Page 1 November 19, 2020
S&P 500 Price Target 4,200; EPS target $175
We remain optimistic and expect another year of double-digit gains as the economy and society slowly
transition back to normal. As such, we forecast that the S&P 500 will rise +15% (from our 3,650 2020
year-end target) and reach 4,200 by 2021 year end. Our expectation is based on the assumptions of a
continued low cost-of-equity rate (DDM model) and a higher-than-normal market multiple (PE model) – both of which we reconcile with an expectation for interest rates to remain historically low for the
foreseeable future. In addition, massive fiscal and monetary responses add another layer of strong
support for continued stock market gains (Exhibits 2-4), in our view.
On the earnings front, we forecast $175 for 2021 S&P 500 EPS, an almost 35% jump from the pandemic-
depressed 2020 level. Our expectation assumes that companies will build on the earnings recovery
displayed in recent quarters, as more areas of the economy adapt and get closer to normal levels of
activity throughout the year. In addition, we also believe current consensus earnings expectations are
too conservative, setting up the potential for significant upward surprise in the coming quarters – similar
to how the recently reported 3Q has transpired.
Baseline Assumptions
One or more effective vaccines become publicly available sometime during 1H
At least one more round of fiscal stimulus in the ~ $1 trillion range
Policy uncertainty (particularly on the trade front) declines
Yield curve continues to steepen as 10-year Treasury rate drifts higher, but stays below 1.5%
Exhibit 1: 2021 S&P 500 Targets
Price Target
Model Category 2021E
Dividend Discount Model Fundamental 4,250
Fair Value Price-to-Earnings Model Valuation 4,150
Source: BMO Investment Strategy Group. *Based on 11/18/2020 closing price. **Based on our prior-year EPS target if EPS is not fully reported for index.
Investment Strategy | Page 2 November 19, 2020
Exhibit 2: S&P 500 Price Performance Following Enactment of Fiscal Stimulus Annualized Return
Date Enacted Fiscal Stimulus Bill +1M +3M +6M +12M +2Y +3Y +5Y
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet.
Exhibit 10: Key BMO Investment Strategy Reports and Chart Callouts
Date Report Title Takeaway
A 11/21/19 2020 Market Outlook Initiated 3,400 S&P 500 price target
B 3/23/20 Coronavirus Positioning and the Next Bull Market Transition from the one month cyclical bear to the renewed bull market and the anticipated 40-50% rally; suspended 2020 targets, instead shifting to NTM forecasts
C 4/24/20 The Actual Earnings Number May Not Matter A recovery this fast to new all-time highs is not unprecedented
D 5/29/20 Don’t Fret Over Valuation Valuations are not that extreme when considered within the context of historically low rates and little inflation
E 7/30/20 US Presidential Elections and Stock Market Performance Market performance is about fundamentals and the economy; investors should avoid constructing portfolios around politics
F 8/28/20 Reinstating 2020 Market Targets 3,650 year-end 2020 target
WeightTarget Weight BMO Investment Strategy Group Headline
Communication Services MW 11.0 11.0 Primary beneficiary of stay-at-home trade, which will have periods of outperformance; maintain positions
Consumer Discretionary OW 11.2 12.0 Sector performance, not unlike the market, likely to broaden as recovery matures
Consumer Staples MW 6.9 6.5 Focus on staples retailing; “hoard” names are expensive and could be source of funds for cyclical growth Energy UW 2.2 1.5 Secular decline intact; range-bound commodity and renewables focus are not supportive to higher prices
Financials OW 10.2 11.5 Combo platter of steeper yield curve + improving economy + lack of investor ownership = bullish
Health Care MW 14.1 14.0 Focus on products – biotech, drugs and devices; potential new regulations and policy are headwinds
Industrials OW 8.6 9.5 Primary beneficiary of cyclical earnings and economic recovery; best to balance international and domestic
Information Technology MW 27.4 27.5 Periods of outperformance likely to be more condensed; maintain longer-term positions; trim on spikes
Materials MW 2.7 2.5 Much of recovery is likely already priced in; prefer select base metals, paper and chemical > gold
Real Estate UW 2.6 2.0 Yield proxies likely to suffer; prefer REITs slightly > Utilities given economic sensitivity
Utilities UW 3.1 2.0 Yield proxies likely to suffer; prefer REITs slightly > Utilities given economic sensitivity
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group. Performance calculated through 11/18/20. REITs are used as a historical proxy for the Real Estate sector, which was officially established in Sept. 2016.
Investment Strategy | Page 6 November 19, 2020
Overweight: Consumer Discretionary
Exhibit 13: Consumer Discretionary Sector Tends to Outpace Broader Market Once Recessions End
30% 26.0%
25%
20% 17.2%
15% 12.2%
10% 7.1% 8.8%
4.6% 5%
0% Next 6-Mos Next 12-Mos Following 12-Mos
Consumer Discretionary S&P 500
Average Price Performance Following Recessions: Consumer Discretionary vs. S&P 500
US recessions since 1973; COND sector prices prior to 1989 estimated based on weighted avg prices
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet, NBER.
Performance: Discretionary Typically Post Strong
Outperformance Following US Recessions
When examining US recessions since 1973, the Consumer
Discretionary sector has exhibited an average gain of 26% in
the 12 months following recessions, compared to an 8.8%
price return registered by the S&P 500 index.
In addition, price strength typically carries through to the
following year with the sector outpacing the overall market
by more than seven percentage points.
Exhibit 14: Consumer Discretionary Has Highest EPS LTG Forecast
EPS LTG (lhs) NTM PEG (rhs)30%
CON
D
4.0x
25% 3.5x
20% 3.0x
15% 2.5x
10% 2.0x
5% 1.5x
0% 1.0x
-5% 0.5x
-10% 0.0x
S&P 500 Sectors: EPS Long-Term Growth and NTM PEG Ratio
PEG ratio: NTM P/E divided by EPS LTG
COM
S
CON
S
ENRG
S
FIN
S
HLT
H
IND
U
INFT
MA
TRS
REA
L
UTI
L
SPX
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet, IBES.
Fundamentals: When Factoring in Long-Term EPS Growth
Expectations, Sector Has One of the Lowest PEG Ratios
While absolute and relative valuations for Discretionary
remain elevated according to our valuation composite model
(US Chartbook), the sector does not appear expensive when
factoring in long-term EPS growth.
Furthermore, the sector easily has the highest long-term EPS
growth forecast among S&P 500 sectors with Amazon being a
major driver of that feat. This puts the NTM PEG ratio for the
group well-below that of the market and one of the lowest
across the 11 GICS sectors.
Exhibit 15: US Consumer Market Conditions Have Improved
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
BMO US Consumer Market Indicator* measures standardized changes over rolling 1Y periods in
Perspective: After a Sharp Drop During the Height of the
Pandemic, US Consumer Market Conditions Have
Rebounded Recently
After displaying its sharpest move into negative territory
since the Great Recession earlier in the year during the height
of the COVID-19 pandemic, our US Consumer Market Indicator
has markedly improved. In fact, it is sitting above zero for
four straight months now, a positive signal for future
personal consumption growth, not to mention Consumer
Discretionary relative performance, in our view.
*Levels above zero indicate accommodative conditions and signal future personal consumption growth, while levels below zero indicate restrictive conditions and potential deterioration in personal consumption growth. The model measures standardized changes over rolling one-year periods in the following metrics: disposable income, nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, consumer confidence, consumer credit, oil prices, home prices, and stock prices.
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, FactSet.
Performance: Rebound in Relative Performance Likely to
Persist Amid Economic Recovery and Cyclical Rotation
We mistakenly downgraded Industrials earlier in the year
given the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding a return to
normal economic activity, coupled with the predominant
fundamental strength within the “stay-at-home” phenomenon. While the cyclical ‘’green light” in terms of both the stock market and economic recoveries remains
early, we believe Industrials will be a primary beneficiary of a
broader cyclical recovery.
As such, we are upgrading Industrials to Overweight from
Underweight and believe the continued improvement in
macro conditions, (e.g., including, but not limited to the y/y
%change in US LEI and ISM Manufacturing indices following
their April troughs) could provide significant tailwinds for the
sector’s relative performance for several more months. Potential infrastructure stimulus and a new capex cycle are
also themes to watch in 2021 that could benefit the sector.
Exhibit 20: Strong Cash Flow Generation for Machinery and Road & Rails Helped Offset Declines Across Other INDU Groups
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
Operating Cash Flow per Share: Select Industrials Industries
Source: BMO Investment Strategy Group. *Based on 11/18/2020 closing price.**Based on our prior-year EPS target if EPS is not fully reported for index.
Investment Strategy | Page 21 November 19, 2020
Sectors, Size, and Style Recommendations
Canadian Sector Opinions
Exhibit 57: Canadian Sector Opinion Summary
Sector Opinion Index
Weight Target Weight BMO Investment Strategy Group Headline
Communication Services MW 5.2 5.0 Remains our favourite yield play, despite challenges of yield strategies. Given secular dividend growth, recent underperformance provides timely longer-term opportunity
Consumer Discretionary OW 3.8 5.0 Classic Early Cyclical with long outperformance tail suggests persistent outperformance. Consumer Staples MW 4.2 4.0 Expensive sector but earnings growth remains stable. Be increasingly selective. Energy MW 11.3 11.0 Structural challenges persist, but contrarian rebounds are often sharp and difficult to anticipate.
Financials OW 29.8 31 Steadfastly maintaining holdings in the broader sector, however we prefer those companies with strong US platforms – especially within the banks (commercial banking + wealth management).
Health Care MW 1.2 1.5 Significant price correction and regulatory tailwinds within Cannabis suggest neutralized position.
Industrials OW 12.6 13.5 Well-positioned for cyclical recovery. Focus on the rails, select manufacturers and waste companies – especially those leveraged to the US.
Information Technology MW 9 9.5 Prefer the US; very select positions in Canada that are levered to secular trends.
Materials MW 14.5 14.5 A tale of two sectors within the sector = neutralize gold and precious metals on sharp outperformance; while overweight the non-gold Materials sector on cyclical recovery.
Real Estate UW 5.4 3.0 Structural issues to persist in 2021 and yield strategies likely to remain challenged as yield grind higher. Utilities UW 3.3 2.0 Rising yields, low organic growth and high payout ratios are a tough combination.
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet, IBES.
Materials = Cash Generation
While all the stars have clearly aligned for gold as a source of
stability and store of value, both Gold and Non-Gold Material
stocks have strong free cash flow.
Overall, while gold has been the clear driver of recent
performance we believe that investors, by quite simply
looking beyond just gold, can find select compelling value
opportunities within Materials that are poised to benefit from
rebounding commodities.
Investment Strategy | Page 29 November 19, 2020
Underweight: Real Estate and Utilities (Downgrade to Underweight From Market Weight)
Exhibit 80: Real Estate = Growth Challenges to Persist
Real Estate: Blended and NTM FFO Growth
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Blended Relative Growth Rate NTM
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet, IBES.
Real Estate = Structurally Challenged
Yes, Real Estate historically posts its best performance during
range-bound rate environments; however, the sector faces
many structural challenges over the coming quarters which
are likely to limit FFO and dividend growth.
Exhibit 81: Utilities = Best Performance When Rates Are Declining
S&P/TSX Utilities vs Composite Average Rolling 1Yr Relative Performance Based on Year-to-Year Change in
10Yr US Treasury Yield monthly data, beginning 1990
20% 13.6% 15% 9.5% 10% 5% 0%
-5% -0.3% -10% -3.8%
-15% -10.0% -20% -25% -18.8%
Less than - Between - Between - Between 0 Between 50 Greater 100 bps 100 bps 50 bps and bps and 50 bps and than 100
and -50 bps 0 bps bps 100 bps bps
Year-to-Year Change in 10Yr Treasury Yield
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet, FRB
Utilities = Ultimate Rate Sensitive Sector
Utilities is the most classic rate-sensitive sector, posting its
best relative performance when interest rates are declining
sharply and underperforming when interest rates start to
stabilize and creep higher.
Exhibit 82: Utilities = Elevated Valuations
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Valuation Composite: Utilities average z-score of P/E, NTM P/E, P/B, P/S and inverted DY
Valuation Composite vs S&P/TSX
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group, FactSet, IBES.
Utilities = Relatively Expensive
Our z-scored valuation composite remains well above the
one-standard deviation level, with Utilities among the most
expensive sectors in the TSX.
As such, rising yields, low organic growth and high payout
ratios are a tough combination. Areas to focus on would be
renewables and non-regulated Utilities.
Investment Strategy | Page 30 November 19, 2020
Canadian Size Opinions
Exhibit 83: Canadian Size Opinions Sector Opinion Comments
Large cap OW Valuations are generally more expensive than small cap. However, earnings growth remains more stable and profitability is strong. Resource sectors display significantly higher quality metrics than small cap.
Small cap MWRelatively attractive valuations, but lower quality resource names add risk. Meanwhile, the non-resource small-cap namesare poised for a strong cyclical rebound.
Source: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group.
I, Brian G. Belski, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.
Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/public-disclosure/.
* Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts. ** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services as percentage within ratings category. *** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services as percentage of Investment Banking clients. **** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts. ***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services as percentage of Investment Banking clients. ~ As of April 1, 2019.
Ratings Key (as of October 2016)
We use the following ratings system definitions: OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis; Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis; Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis; (S) = Speculative investment; Spd = Suspended - Coverage and rating suspended until coverage is reinstated; NR = No Rated - No rating at this time; and R = Restricted - Dissemination of research is currently restricted.
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Prior BMO Capital Markets Rating System
(April 2013 - October 2016) http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/rating_key_2013_to_2016.pdf
(January 2010 - April 2013) http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/prior_rating_system.pdf
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST BMO Financial Group (NYSE, TSX: BMO) is an integrated financial services provider offering a range of retail banking, wealth management, and investment and corporate
banking products. BMO serves Canadian retail clients through BMO Bank of Montreal and BMO Nesbitt Burns. In the United States, personal and commercial banking clients are served by BMO Harris Bank N.A., (Member FDIC). Investment and corporate banking services are provided in Canada and the US through BMO Capital Markets.
BMO Capital Markets is a trade name used by BMO Financial Group for the wholesale banking businesses of Bank of Montreal, BMO Harris Bank N.A. (member FDIC), Bank of Montreal Europe p.l.c, and Bank of Montreal (China) Co. Ltd, the institutional broker dealer business of BMO Capital Markets Corp. (Member FINRA and SIPC) and the agency broker
dealer business of Clearpool Execution Services, LLC (Member FINRA and SIPC) in the U.S., and the institutional broker dealer businesses of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Member Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund) in Canada and Asia, Bank of Montreal Europe p.l.c. (authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland) in Europe and BMO Capital Markets Limited (authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) in the UK and Australia.
“Nesbitt Burns” is a registered trademark of BMO Nesbitt Burns Corporation Limited, used under license. “BMO Capital Markets” is a trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under license. "BMO (M-Bar roundel symbol)" is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under license.
® Registered trademark of Bank of Montreal in the United States, Canada and elsewhere. TM Trademark Bank of Montreal
Director of Canadian and UK Equity Research Bert Powell, CFA 416-359-5301
Associate Director − Canada Hari Sambasivam 416-359-8357
Director of US Equity Research Carl Kirst, CFA 212-885-4113
Associate Director − US Todd J. Jonasz 212-885-4051
Head of Product Management - US Timothy Pierotti 212-885-4033
ENERGY
Oil & Gas – Integrateds Randy Ollenberger 403-515-1502
Oil & Gas – E&P Phillip Jungwirth, CFA 303-436-1127 Ray Kwan, P.Eng. 403-515-1501 Mike Murphy, P.Geol. 403-515-1540 David Round, ACA +44 (0)20 7664 8052
Oil & Gas – Oilfield Services John Gibson, CFA 403-515-1527
Oil & Gas – Market Specialist Jared Dziuba, CFA 403-515-3672
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Retailing/Consumer Peter Sklar, CPA, CA 416-359-5188
Retail & Services Simeon Siegel, CFA 212-885-4077
Cannabis Tamy Chen, CFA 416-359-5501 Peter Sklar, CPA, CA 416-359-5188
Restaurants Andrew Strelzik 212-885-4015
Toys, Games, and Leisure Gerrick L. Johnson 212-883-5192
Auto Parts Peter Sklar, CPA, CA 416-359-5188
Education Jeffrey M. Silber 212-885-4063
Special Situations Stephen MacLeod, CFA 416-359-8069 Jonathan Lamers, CFA 416-359-5253
REAL ESTATE
REITs (Canada) Jenny Ma, CFA 416-359-4955 Joanne Chen, CFA 416-359-8108
REITs (US) John P. Kim 212-885-4115 Juan C. Sanabria 312-845-4074 Ari Klein 212-885-4103 Frank Lee, CFA 415-591-2129
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
IT Services & Software Keith Bachman, CFA 212-885-4010
Information Technology Thanos Moschopoulos, CFA 416-359-5428
Commodity Strategy Colin Hamilton +44 (0)20 7664 8172
Base Metals & Mining Rene Cartier, CPA, CA, CBV, CFA 416-359-5011 David Gagliano, CFA 212-885-4013 Alexander Pearce +44 (0)20 7246 5435 Jackie Przybylowski, P.Eng., CFA 416-359-6388 Edward Sterck +44 (0)20 7246 5421
Precious Metals & Minerals Andrew Mikitchook, P.Eng., CFA 416-359-5782 Brian Quast, P.Eng., JD 416-359-6824 Raj Ray, CFA, B.Eng. +44 (0)20 7246 5430 Ryan Thompson, CFA 416-359-6814
Fertilizers & Chemicals Joel Jackson, P.Eng., CFA 416-359-4250
Food & Ag Products Kenneth B. Zaslow, CFA 212-885-4017
UTILITIES
Electric Utilities & Independent Power Ben Pham, CFA 416-359-4061
Utilities, Power & Renewables James M. Thalacker 212-885-4007 HEALTHCARE
Biotechnology George Farmer 212-885-4016 Do Kim 212-885-4091 Matthew Luchini 212-885-4119
Managed Care/Facilities Matthew Borsch, CFA 212-885-4094
BioPharma Gary Nachman 212-883-5113
MACRO
Investment Strategy Brian G. Belski 212-885-4151
416-359-5761
ESG Strategy Doug A. Morrow 416-359-5463
Economics Douglas Porter, CFA 416-359-4887 Michael Gregory, CFA 312-845-5025
416-359-4747
Quantitative/Technical Jin Li 416-359-7689 Herbert Sun 416-359-6704
Exchange Traded Funds Jin Li 416-359-7689
INDUSTRIALS
Transportation & Aerospace Fadi Chamoun, CFA 416-359-6775
Diversified Industrials Devin Dodge, CFA 416-359-6774
Machinery Joel Tiss 212-883-5112
Business Services & Industrial Services Jeffrey M. Silber 212-885-4063
FINANCIALS
Canadian Banks & Asset Managers Sohrab Movahedi 416-359-7157
US Financial Services James Fotheringham 212-885-4180
Insurance/Diversified Financials (Canada) Tom MacKinnon, FSA, FCIA 416-359-4629
Diversified Financials (Canada) Étienne Ricard, CFA 416-359-5296 SPECIAL PROJECTS
Special Projects Kimberly Berman 416-359-5611 Gaurav Mathur 416-359-7072
1 First Canadian Place, P.O. Box 150, Toronto, ON M5X 1H3 416-359-4000 • 129 Saint-Jacques Street, 10th Floor, Montreal, Quebec H2Y 1L6 • 1400, 525 - 8th Avenue S.W., Calgary, AB. T2P 1G1 95 Queen Victoria Street, London, U.K., EC4V 4HG • 3 Times Square, 29th Floor, New York, NY 10036 212-885-4000 • 200 Tower Place, 3348 Peachtree Road, NE, Suite 1430, Atlanta, GA 30326 100 High Street, 26th Floor, Boston, MA 02110 617-451-0670 • 600 17th Street, Suite 1704S, South Tower, Denver, CO 80202 • 700 Louisiana Street, Suite 2100, Houston, TX 77002 713-546-9746
One Market, Spear Tower, Suite 1515, San Francisco, CA 94105 415-591-2100 • 115 S. LaSalle Street, Chicago, IL 60603
BMO CAPITAL MARKETS INVESTMENT STRATEGY: 2021 MARKET OUTLOOK
ABOUT BMO CAPITAL MARKETS
BMO Capital Markets is a leading, full-service North American-based financial services
provider offering corporate, institutional and government clients access to a complete range
of products and services. These include equity and debt underwriting, corporate lending
and project financing, merger and acquisitions advisory services, securitization, treasury
management, market risk management, debt and equity research and institutional sales
and trading. With approximately 2,700 professionals in 33 locations around the world,
including 19 offices in North America, BMO Capital Markets works proactively with clients to
provide innovative and integrated financial solutions.
BMO Capital Markets is a member of BMO Financial Group (NYSE, TSX: BMO), one of the
largest diversified financial services providers in North America with US$709 billion total
assets and over 44,000 employees as at April 30, 2020. For more information, visit
www.bmocm.com/.
www.bmocm.com
BMO Capital Markets is a trade name used by BMO Financial Group for the wholesale banking businesses of Bank of Montreal, BMO Harris Bank N.A. (member FDIC), Bank of Montreal Europe p.l.c, and Bank of Montreal (China) Co. Ltd, the institutional broker dealer business of BMO Capital Markets Corp. (Member FINRA and SIPC) and the agency broker dealer business of Clearpool Execution Services, LLC (Member FINRA and SIPC) in the U.S., and the institutional broker dealer businesses of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Member Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund) in Canada and Asia, Bank of Montreal Europe p.l.c. (authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland) in Europe and BMO Capital Markets Limited (authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) in the UK and Australia.
® Registered trademark of Bank of Montreal in the United States, Canada and elsewhere. ™ Trademark Bank of Montreal