Price ` 12 Fair Value 20 Ban on Plastic bag to boost demand for paper Div Yield - Tenure 2-3 years Sensex 37,861.25 Nifty 11,439.80 Group/Index B Non-binding MOU's with GOI- ` 1650Cr M.cap (` in cr) 319 Equity (` In cr) 25.71 52 wk H/L ` 16.70/4.95 Face Value ` 1.00 NSE code GENUSPAPER BSE code 538961 Competitive Advantage RONW 5% P/E 17.73 P/BV 0.9 EV/EBIDTA 8.50 IN ` Expansions EV (`in cr) 396.73 BV (`in cr) 14.00 NW(`in cr) 359.89 EPS (TTM) 0.70 FY 21Est. Earnings 32.63 Equity Share Capital 25.71 1.00 25.71 EPS(FY21Est.) 1.27 Estimated Price/share 20 Note: P/E has been estimated around 16xs Year End 201803 201703 201603 201503 Tax Rate % 33.75 25.85 45.46 32.77 Receivable days 80 81 66 61 Source: Google Div. Payout % - - - - Multibagger Key Financial Data One of the leading manufacturer of multi-layer Kraft paper in India with a preferred supplier for corrugated box manufacturers & a DOMINANT player in North India. Also, Company is a preferred vendor for large FMCG clients. Major Customer includes HUL, Dabur, Onida, Moser Baer, Samsung, LG, whirlpool, Eveready etc. Moreover, to address the Growing Demand, company have leased an operational manufacturing plant for a period of 5years. The facility is located at Kashipur, Uttarakhand and has manufacturing capacity of 75,000 metric tonnes per annum (MTPA). This plant will cater to demand of existing clients of Genus paper and would help to add few more clients in that region & has enhanced its manufacturing capacities by 50%. Moreover, its Asset light strategy helps to move faster in the long term and build a sustainable business model. Company have performed very well for the FY 2018, the year has started on a encouraging note. Along with improved sales volumes, the mix has changed favorably towards the value-added products. After Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh has become the 19th state in the country to ban the usage of plastic bags. The ban will further boost the demand for the Kraft paper for manufacturing of paper bags & Genus being the dominant player in North India, would stand to benefit for the same. VALUATION (` In Cr except per share) Company has entered into two non-binding MoU with Government of Maharashtra to invest `1,050cr for setting up of Kraft Paper manufacturing plant and with the Government of Uttar Pradesh to invest ` 600cr for expansion of current manufacturing facility. The company will incur the investing amount within a period of 5 years from the date of application after completion of all effective steps. Company enjoys competitive advantage amongst other players. Has one of the largest capacities in Northern India. 11 MW Co-generation Captive Power Plant generation. Licensed bore well for sufficient Water Supply for its requirement. Zero liquid discharge plant with full fledged waste water treatment plant. Strong relation with key FMCG customers. Leased Plant and Brownfield expansion is in line with Management Vision to further Strengthen their Foothold in Northern India With growing demand company have undertaken a Brownfield expansion at its existing facility in Moradabad through debottlenecking. This will enhance the existing capacities by 50,000 MTPA. Company is continuously focusing on premiumization of products and improving internal efficiencies. With a strong start of the year, is confident of continuing on the growth trajectory for the coming quarters as well. INVESTMENT RESEARCH DARK HORSE - Genus paper & boards Ltd. Dated : 08th August 2018 FV Share Holding Pattern Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's No. of Equity Shares ACCUMULATE Investment Rationale Stock Details Key Valuation Ratios 50% 50% Promoter Others Page 1 www.rudrashares.com
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INVESTMENT RESEARCH… · Has one of the largest capacities in Northern India. ... DARK HORSE - Genus paper & boards Ltd. Dated : 08th August 2018 FV Share Holding Pattern Corporate
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Price ` 12
Fair Value 20
Ban on Plastic bag to boost demand for paper
Div Yield -
Tenure 2-3 years
Sensex 37,861.25
Nifty 11,439.80
Group/Index B
Non-binding MOU's with GOI- ` 1650Cr
M.cap (` in cr) 319
Equity (` In cr) 25.71
52 wk H/L ` 16.70/4.95
Face Value ` 1.00
NSE code GENUSPAPER
BSE code 538961
Competitive Advantage
RONW 5%
P/E 17.73
P/BV 0.9
EV/EBIDTA 8.50
IN `
Expansions
EV (`in cr) 396.73
BV (`in cr) 14.00
NW(`in cr) 359.89
EPS (TTM) 0.70
FY 21Est. Earnings 32.63
Equity Share Capital 25.71
1.00
25.71
EPS(FY21Est.) 1.27
Estimated Price/share 20
Note: P/E has been estimated around 16xs
Year End 201803 201703 201603 201503
Tax Rate % 33.75 25.85 45.46 32.77
Receivable days 80 81 66 61
Source: Google Div. Payout % - - - -
Multibagger
Key Financial Data
One of the leading manufacturer of multi-layer Kraft paper in India with a preferredsupplier for corrugated box manufacturers & a DOMINANT player in North India.
Also, Company is a preferred vendor for large FMCG clients. Major Customer includes HUL,Dabur, Onida, Moser Baer, Samsung, LG, whirlpool, Eveready etc.
Moreover, to address the Growing Demand, company have leased an operational manufacturingplant for a period of 5years. The facility is located at Kashipur, Uttarakhand and hasmanufacturing capacity of 75,000 metric tonnes per annum (MTPA). This plant will cater todemand of existing clients of Genus paper and would help to add few more clients in thatregion & has enhanced its manufacturing capacities by 50%. Moreover, its Asset lightstrategy helps to move faster in the long term and build a sustainable business model.
Company have performed very well for the FY 2018, the year has started on a encouraging note.Along with improved sales volumes, the mix has changed favorably towards the value-addedproducts. After Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh has become the 19th state in the country to ban theusage of plastic bags. The ban will further boost the demand for the Kraft paper formanufacturing of paper bags & Genus being the dominant player in North India, would standto benefit for the same.
VALUATION (` In Cr except per share)
Company has entered into two non-binding MoU with Government of Maharashtra to invest`1,050cr for setting up of Kraft Paper manufacturing plant and with the Government of Uttar
Pradesh to invest ` 600cr for expansion of current manufacturing facility.
The company will incur the investing amount within a period of 5 years from the date ofapplication after completion of all effective steps.
Company enjoys competitive advantage amongst other players. Has one of the largest capacities in Northern India. 11 MW Co-generation Captive Power Plant generation. Licensed bore well for sufficient Water Supply for its requirement. Zero liquid discharge plant with full fledged waste water treatment plant. Strong relation with key FMCG customers.
Leased Plant and Brownfield expansion is in line with Management Vision to furtherStrengthen their Foothold in Northern India
With growing demand company have undertaken a Brownfield expansion at its existing facilityin Moradabad through debottlenecking. This will enhance the existing capacities by 50,000 MTPA. Company is continuously focusing on premiumization of products and improvinginternal efficiencies. With a strong start of the year, is confident of continuing on the growthtrajectory for the coming quarters as well.
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
DARK HORSE - Genus paper & boards Ltd.Dated : 08th August 2018
FV
Share Holding Pattern
Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's
No. of Equity Shares
ACCUMULATE Investment Rationale
Stock Details
Key Valuation Ratios
50%50%
Promoter Others
Page 1 www.rudrashares.com
Growth Drivers
Exponential Growth in DEMAND
Shift to value added products- PREMIUMIZATION
RECYCLE & RESUE of waste paper
LOCATION advantage
FY18 – Revenue Break up Way Forward Add new capacities via organic and inorganic modes
Higher sales of Kraft Paper with Bursting Factor (BF) greater than 22
Increased product offering of better quality to customers
Better Realization
Improved operating efficiencies
Quarterly Highlights- Q1FY19
FY17 FY18
FY17 FY18
Kraft Paper
Mild Steel Ingot
FY17 FY18
REVENUE (` in Cr)
EBITDA (` in Cr)
PAT (` in Cr)
Owned 140000 MTPA at Moradabad(UP)
Total: 215000MTPALeased 75000 MTPA at Kashipur(Uttrakhand)
Current capacity
Contribute less than 5% of the total business. Steel ingot is manufactured by using the excesspower generated in cogeneration plant after meeting the requirement for Kraft paper. This product is used for manufacturing various types of steel bars by rolling mills.
Kraft paper is a type of industrial paper and used by packaging industry for manufacturingcorrugated boxes and liners, corrugated sacks and composite containers.Company offers Multi Layered Kraft paper with High Tear Factor (TF), High Burst Factor (BF)i.e. range from 18 to 40 BF with GSM ranging from 100-400. This paper is used to the extentof around 90 % by corrugated box manufacturer which includes FMCG, Consumer Durables,Pharmaceuticals, Garments, textiles & footwear, E-commerce, served by Genus.
Catering to Diversified Industry Needs from FMCG to Industrials to Ecommerce
Focused towards increasing asset productivity, operating efficiencies and strengthening thecompetitive position
Higher the Burst Factor (BF)
better the realization
Future Prospect
Kraft Paper demand to outspace supply
Strong Presence of FMCG & Consumer
durable Co's in North IndiaBrownfield Expansion by
50000MTPA at
Moradabad(UP)
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STOCK BROKERS LTD.
RESULTS CORNER
The Revenue stood at `121.0 Cr for Q1FY19 as against `72.8 Cr in Q1FY18 recording a growth of
66% YoY led by high volume growth.Company reported EBITDA of ` 11.1 Cr for Q1FY19 as against ` 7.3 Cr in Q1FY18 recording a
growth of 51% YoY. EBITDA margin stood at 9.1%.PAT has increased by 113% YoY to ` 5.1 Cr in Q1FY18
44%
56%
Up to 20 BF
Above 20 BF
Page 2 www.rudrashares.com
Cater to needs of multiple industries
Indian Economy
Global Paper Industry
Indian Paper Industry
Kraft Paper: Industry Dynamics
Demand for Kraft Paper to outpace the production
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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
The Indian economy grew at 6.7 per cent in 2017-18. The 7.7% growth rate achieved during Q4 FY18 putsIndia as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With private consumption picking up, ruraleconomy recovering and investments reviving as reflected in IP capital growth index and gross fixedcapital formation (GCF), India’s growth should remain positive with both the World Bank and IMFpredicting a higher growth trajectory in the years ahead., For FY18-19 the economy is projected to grow at7.4%.
Globally over 400 million tones of paper and paper products are consumed. The world’s three largest paperproducing countries are China, the United States, and Japan (these three countries account forapproximately half of the world’s total paper production), while India accounts for a small but growingshare of the global market. The global paper and pulp industry has contracted slightly over the past fiveyears, primarily due to disrupting technology, and shift in customer demand. However, the decline in growthin developed markets are expected to be offset by the demand growth in India, Middle East, Africa and Asia.
The reduction of import duties (10% to Nil) on paper and paperboard from ASEAN countries pose achallenge to India paper industry. During the year FY18 the imports of paper and paper boardstouched 1.9 MT which is ~ 35% higher than FY17. The higher cost of fiber and capital in India affectsthe competitiveness of the Indian players and could potentially impact the relevance of local players.
Genus Paper has recently expanded its capacity by ~50% by leasing a manf. plant
Looking for other organic and inorganic means of capacity expansions
The domestic demand of paper and packing is ~14 Million metric tones, which accounts for ~4% of theworld’s consumption. The estimated turnover of the industry is ` 50,000 crores, contributes
` 4,500 crores to the exchequer and provides employment to more than 0.5 Million people and 1.5 Million
people indirectly. The Indian paper industry is highly fragmented with ~ 750 paper mills, of which ~6%have capacity of 50,000 MT and above.
Page 3 www.rudrashares.com
Outlook
Valuation Conclusion
Incorporated in 2012, company is engaged in manufacturing of Multi-layer Kraft Paper & Mild Steel Ingot.Kraft Paper is classified as industrial paper and is used by packaging industry in making corrugated boxesand liners, corrugated sacks and composite containers. Multilayer Kraft paper contribute more than 95% tothe total revenue. The Company's plant is located at Moradabad, Uttar Pradesh with total capacity of215,000 MTPA and has two independent plants within the factory premises.
RUDRA SHARES &
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The Chinese government’s move to ban waste paper amidst environment concerns is expected tobenefit the Indian paper manufacturers. Waste Paper (WP) is one of the major sources of raw material usedfor manufacturing the recycled paper products. The Chinese Government’s decision to ban waste paperimports has caused a drop in global waste paper prices. As a result, the price of recycled paper inChina, used for packaging material, has increased due to short supply of WP. Indian manufacturersusing waste paper stand to benefit on account of lower global waste paper prices (on excess supply)and higher realization for recycled paper. To conclude, the global shortage of wood pulp has resulted
in increasing prices of finished paper. Indian wood pulp based having requisite self-sourcing (farmforestry) are expected to benefit from increasing global finished paper prices- Indirect benefitingGENUS.
Company Overview
Estimating the share price of the company as per P/E valuation, the estimated share price for next 2-3years tenure turns to be around ` 20-25. We recommend to Accumulate the stock at current levels to
achieve long term gains.
The Paper Industry in India is growing steadily with increasing demand from various customer segmentslike education, business & corporate and commercial printing. The demand and growth drivers have comefrom a combination of factors such as rising income levels, growing per capita expenditure, rapidurbanization, industrial production, government spending on education and increased school enrollments.Higher disposable income coupled with urbanization is expected to drive new and different consumerbehaviors and drive demand for paper products.
Company have performed very well for the FY 2018. Along with improved sales volumes, the mix haschanged favorably towards the value-added products. The ban on plastic in UP will further boost thedemand for the Kraft paper for manufacturing of paper bags & Genus being the dominant player inNorth India, would stand to benefit for the same.Moreover, company's focus on Premium products going forward, Brownfield expansion, signing ofMOU, add new capacities via organic and inorganic modes & Strong clientele (catering to packagingneeds of multiple industries- Dabur, Unilever, Havells, LG, Lays, Pepsi, Samsung, Patanjali etc.) attracts the share price at current levels.