Fast Track Forward to Trades & Movements by Sector Theme of the Week Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com 11.1 365.50 MCB [%] NGLD Δ WoW ETFs/Commodities 12,000 400.00 WoW Movements LOTO ▲ Laggers -9.3 3.9 ASL Fund NAVs SWAN Pref Shares [Rs M] 11,037 MCB CIEL 553 11.81 -0.18% 5.6% -58.1 Latest -10.0 2.44 Fixed Income Most Active Value ▲ BTEL 21.60 3.8 Market Indices 28.80 36.02 COND — INVH 56.50 Prices & Spot Rates Foreign Participation Earnings: 1.75 ▼ USD/MUR Δ WoW [Rs] 973.64 -0.07 400.00 Latest SBM -4.0 EUDC [Rs] 1.23% Leaders 544 123.1 [# k] 845 MEDL 0.13 19.7 SITLH Investment Outlook 31-Jul-2015 Equity Equity 225.00 3.2 DELP 7.12 POLI 6.1 [%] Most Active Volume ALEX-20 1Yr T-Bill -5.0 702 COND — INVH Share of TMT Forex Mkt Watch Corporate Bonds MCB SBM BoM Interventions 10.5 Currency Weekly Prices: 14.3 FIN — CONS Sov./Interbank Rates Spot Rates 9.8 PBL Mkt Comm/Divs FIN — CONS News Snippets MCOS CTL UBP Mkt Summary MCB’s foreign driven rally to ATH singlehandedly drove local indices into the green: ALEX 20 (+1.2%), SEMDEX (+1.1%), and ALCAPEX 12 (+0.3%). Foreign participation [NFP: 81M] stood at under 25% and principally [90%] geared towards MCB. Illiquid-SWAN unexpectedly rocketed to a new All- Time High. BTEL came crashing down on a foreign dump losing 58% in just four sessions perhaps due to the recent arrival of substantially cheaper broadband offers from Orange and Emtel. 945 970 995 1,020 1,045 1,070 Index [pts] 0 5 10 15 20 Δ% in USD/MUR since 31-Mar-14 1.00 1.75 2.50 3.25 1Yr-GMTB [%] 51% 13% 13% 5% 5% 13% FIN DEBT MSCH T&L MAT Others -1.1 2.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 FIN DEBT MSCH T&L MAT WoW Chnage [%] 1
10
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Fast Track Forward to
Trades & Movements by Sector Theme of the Week
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
11.1
365.50
MCB
[%]
NGLD
Δ WoW
ETFs/Commodities
12,000
400.00
WoW Movements
LOTO
▲
Laggers
-9.3 3.9ASL
Fund NAVs
SWAN
Pref Shares
[Rs M]11,037 MCB
CIEL
553
11.81 -0.18% 5.6%
-58.1
Latest
-10.0
2.44
Fixed Income
Most Active
Value
▲
BTEL 21.60
3.8
Market Indices
28.80
36.02
COND — INVH
56.50
Prices & Spot Rates
Foreign Participation
Earnings:
1.75
▼USD/MUR
Δ WoW[Rs]
973.64-0.07
400.00
Latest
SBM
-4.0
EUDC
[Rs]
1.23%
Leaders
544
123.1[# k]
845 MEDL
0.13
19.7
SITLH
Investment Outlook31-Jul-2015
Equity Equity
225.00 3.2
DELP
7.12POLI
6.1
[%]Most
ActiveVolume
ALEX-20 1Yr T-Bill
-5.0 702
COND — INVH
Share of TMT
Forex Mkt Watch
Corporate Bonds
MCB SBM
BoM Interventions
10.5
Currency
Weekly Prices:
14.3
FIN — CONS Sov./Interbank Rates
Spot Rates
9.8
PBL
Mkt Comm/Divs
FIN — CONS
News Snippets
MCOS CTLUBP
Mkt Summary
MCB’s foreign driven rally to ATH singlehandedlydrove local indices into the green: ALEX 20 (+1.2%),SEMDEX (+1.1%), and ALCAPEX 12 (+0.3%).
Foreign participation [NFP: 81M] stood at under25% and principally [90%] geared towards MCB.
Illiquid-SWAN unexpectedly rocketed to a new All-Time High.
BTEL came crashing down on a foreign dump losing58% in just four sessions perhaps due to the recentarrival of substantially cheaper broadband offersfrom Orange and Emtel.
L HALCAPEX-12 ▲ALEX-20 ▲SEM-10 ▲SEMDEX ▲S&P Pan Africa* ▼MSCI Frontier* ▼MSCI World* ▼S&P 500* ▲ESTX Eur 50* ▼FTSE 100* ▲Nikkei 225 ▲MSCI Emerging* ▼S&P Asia 50* ▼Sensex* ▼
Foreign Participation
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
1,759.77
31.8%
1.4% 7.0%
-4.8% -6.1%
-1.67% -8.3% -20.9%-0.17% 2.3% 1.1%0.31%
570.72
1,953.78
561.17174.28
-1.9% -6.4%1.06%
-7.8%
276
17.018.6
31-Jul-15
5.0
81
5.4Key:MC = Mkt Cap.; Δ MC = Change in Mkt Cap,; TO =Turnover; FP = Foreign Participation; NFP = Net ForeignPurchases; PER = Price-Earnings Ratio; DY = Div. Yield;PBV = Price-Book (Net Asset Value) Ratio; ROE = Returnon Equity.
-14.1%
973.64
Val31-Jul YoY
31-Jul-2015
1,314.83 0.27% -5.4%
Investment Outlook
1.35%
-4.40%
17.0
1,974.500.94
18.1 0.96
‒ 52Wk ‒Indices
77
3.11
177.6
20432.8
PBVAs at
1 Wk YTD24-Jul
193.1
179.3203.7
All SEM Liquid 20279.9
1.00.6
3.11 0.92-5.2%
0.92
24.9
-5.4% -7.6%1,318.39
961.83
Change
PER DY
1.23%
3.64
Week Ended
0.94
3.95 1.5110.5
1.85
373.49378.53 155.9
166.61
2,102.15
27,705
20.6
28,371
22.812.810.322.2
2.42 2.24
-1.40% 13.9%
1.1%
18.81,762.80
6,655.01
18.5
14.1 2.772.88
23.1
2,108.63 2.02 2.833.44 1.563.85 1.89
-17.1%-2.70% 0.2% -7.8%
Activity Spread
3,575.121.46
15.0%0.21%
3,583.791.9% -1.5%
20,585894.07
0.20% 18.0%
6.2% 1.33
Net Flows
2.811.43
2.85-2.35% 3.07
3,634.64
20,5456,668.87
3,674.32-3.19% -6.3%
1.34923.56
* Previous day's closing prices
0 -5
1 1 1
81
MCB NMHL SBM CIEL PAD
Net
For
eign
pur
chas
es [R
s m]
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Indi
ces
reba
sed
to 1
00 o
n 3
0-Ju
n-20
12
SEM-10
MSCI FM
ALEX-20
ALCAPEX-12
90%
4% 2% 2%
MCB
NMHL
SBM
CIEL
PAD
2
Investment Outlook 31-Jul-2015
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
Summary & Highlights Foreign investment resumes on MCB MCB’s foreign driven rally to ATH coupled with strong gains on a select few illiquids masked the fact that there were more drops (24) than gains (17) and that sugar conglomerates weakened. ALEX 20 gained 1.2% to 974pts, SEMDEX gained 1.1% to 1,974pts, and ALCAPEX 12 a much tamer 0.3% to 1,318pts. By contrast, MSCI Frontier Index dropped 1.7% to 561pts and S&P Pan Africa Index tumbled to 167pts (-4.4%). Foreign participation stood at under 25% and principally [90%] geared towards MCB. Financial FI made up half of trades on MCB [45% of TMT] and 83% of its purchases. The largest Mauritian bank soared to new Record High Rs225 (+3.2%). A relatively thinly traded SBM followed MCB’s lead rebounding to 89cts (+1.1%). Similarly CIM edged up to Rs8.82 (+2.6%) while FINC shed 40cts to Rs20.10. Among insurers, illiquid-SWAN unexpectedly rocketed to a new All-Time High Rs400 (+11%), while MUA fell to 7Mth-Low Rs70 (-2.8%). Travel & Leisure NMHL – this week reclaiming its traditional title of ‘most active hotel’ – bounced back to Rs19 (-2.7%) in spite of foreign divestment [68% of sales], while LUX held steady at Rs61.50 (±0%) and SUN slid further down to Rs40.10 (-2.2%). CHSL improved to Rs37 (+1.1%) on thin trading, while its holding, HTLS, traded at a 20-cent premium to CHSL; i.e. at Rs37.20 (+0.5%). Gaming company LOTO was quite active at VWAP Rs5.06 (-2.2%) but closed at a higher Rs5.10 (-1.5%), while ASL cascaded down to a fresh 7½Yr-Low Rs28.80 (-10%). Multi-Sector Conglomerates/Holdings This week’s most traded MSCH were PAD’s principal investees, MEDL [7.2%] and EUDC [3.5%] at Rs66.50 (±0%) and Rs13.90 (±0%) respectively, although EUDC finished at a slightly higher Rs14 (+0.7%). UTIN eased off from record levels to Rs13.10 (-1.1%) on thin trading. Also on significantly lower volumes, OMNI fell to 3Yr-Low Rs69 (-1.4%), TERRA to 11Wk-Low Rs30 (-2.4%) and ALTEO to 4Wk-Low Rs31 (-3.1%). As for IBL, it held steady at Rs115 (±0%), while ROGE improved to Rs29.90 (+1.0%) and GAMMA declined to Rs27.15 (-3.0%).
Consumer Staples | Discretionary Foreign investors were not active [11k shares traded at VWAP Rs395.51 (+2.7%)] on PBL which bounced back to Rs400 (+3.9%). Some 273k CTL shares were at a flat Rs38.30 but inched down to Rs38.20 (-0.3%) by week’s end. Scarcely traded MCOS fell sharply to Rs56.50 (-5.0%) while LFL crept higher to Rs24.10 (+0.4%) and LFL(P) DY improved to 5.11% (+10bps). Materials | Communication UBP was uncharacteristically active [5.2% of TMT] witnessing several large crosses totalling 175k shares at Rs82 (+1.2%). MCFI and PIM both closed in negative territory at Rs22.20 (-1.3%), and Rs71 (-1.1%) respectively. BTEL came crashing down on a foreign dump with 1,400 shares sold at VWAP Rs30 (-42%) with the remaining 8.6k shares on offer at Friday’s Record Low closing price of Rs21.60 (-58%). This manic exit may perhaps have been triggered by the recent arrival of substantially cheaper broadband offers from Orange and Emtel – the domestic Telecommunications behemoths – or perhaps ahead of an exceptionally large cross. Property ENLL was the sole appreciably traded property stock [1% of TMT] at VWAP Rs47.09 (+1.3%) but which improved to a higher Rs47.50 (+2.2%). By contrast BLFE touched new All-Time Lows during the week closing at Rs4.22 (-1.9%). ENLL(P) declined to Rs40.95 (-0.1%) which stands at a 2% premium to its possible redemption price on Dec 1st. Investment Holdings CIEL reclaimed it spot as the most active [2.1%] INVH this week having plateaued at Rs6.88 (±0%). POLI improved to Rs7.12 (+3.8%), and NITL recouped Rs1 to Rs43 while MDIT inched marginally lower by 2cts to Rs5.24. FIDES slid further to a new 4¾Yr-Low Rs71 (-1.4%) while ENL(P) edged up to Rs30 (+0.7%). Debentures | ETFs Debt securities made 13% of this week’s TMT, principally due to UTIN’s R+3% M16 Bonds which was this week’s 2nd most traded security [10% of TMT] at YTM 7.18% (-44bps). Some Rs2.4M worth of MCB R+1.35% M23 Bonds trades were also exchanged at YTM 5.18% (-1bps) and Rs6M of UBP R+1.20% M23 at YTM 5.62% (-1bps). Some 300 Gold (NGLD) units (~1/100 of a troy ounce) traded at Rs365.50 (-9.3%) in-line the recent drop in precious metal prices.
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
Investment Outlook31-Jul-2015
21-Sep-15
Change
0.180.18 0.0%
Dividend Key Dates PropertiesCurrent Ex-Div. Pay Date Type Freq. p.a.
The latest meeting of the Federal Reserve stuck with the same moderate language on its outlook for theAmerican economy. Many investors are betting that the central bank will raise interest rates in September forthe first time since 2006. But although it described gains in the labour market as “solid”, low inflation is anagging concern that could push back a rate increase.
China’s stockmarkets tumbled again, a few weeks after the government sought to stabilise share prices bypumping billions of yuan into the markets. The Shanghai Composite index fell by 8.5% on July 27th, its steepestone-day decline since early 2007. Various explanations were offered for the sell-off, including the soaring priceof pork. The markets steadied after another injection of liquidity from state-controlled financial firms, known asthe “national team”.
Carmakers posted buoyant earnings, by and large. PSA Peugeot Citroën, which has revved up its business afterstruggling with draining costs, made a net profit of €571m ($627m) in the first half, its best for years. The Frenchcarmaker’s share price has risen 80% since the start of the year. And Ford made a record profit in its NorthAmerican operations. But worries persist about the slowdown in emerging markets. Volkswagen’s sales inRussia dropped by 39% and in Brazil by 26% year-on-year. Ford’s analysts predicted that industrywide car salesin China would fall this year.
BP reported a loss of $6.3 billion for the second quarter, as it absorbed the cost of its settlement with federaland state governments in America over the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. But the plunge in oil prices alsofeatured, driving profit down in oil production and exploration. Royal Dutch Shell, meanwhile, said it would layoff 6,500 workers and decrease capital spending by 20% this year. And Centrica, a British gas provider, is to cut6,000 jobs as it reduces its struggling energy-production business. The price of Brent crude fell again this weekto $53 a barrel; last summer it was trading at $115.
Pearson decided to sell the Financial Time s in order to focus on its core business of providing services toeducation. The surprise buyer is Nikkei, Japan’s largest media company. Pearson is also in talks over a separatesale of its 50% non-controlling stake in The Economist .
Fin15.00 20.00 -25.0% 27-Jul-15 10-Aug-15 21-Aug-15 Int 2
New Mauritius Hotels Ltd (NMHL)NMHL’s RCPS were fully subscribed and will commence trading on Aug 10th 2015. Some 1.25M NMHL RCPS will be offeredat Rs11 each. Further, NMHL issued Rs812M worth of bonds with maturity between 2 and 4 years through a privateplacement. The majority of the proceeds would be used to repay the Rs625M of bonds raised in 2013. The new bonds willjoin the SEM’s debt board in Sep-15.
L HNewGOLD [Rs/coz]▼Gold [Rs/coz] ▼NewPLAT [Rs/coz] ▼Plat. [Rs/coz] ▼Sugar [Rs/t] ▼B.Crude [Rs/L] ▼S&P GIVI SA Top 50 ▼*where coz ≡ centi troy ounce, i.e. ~0.3g; t ≡ tonne = 1,000kg; L ≡ Litre = 100cm 3
Forex Rates
L HUSD / MUREUR / MURGBP / MURZAR / MURAUD / MURJPY / MUR*Weight of currency in trade basket used to compute an MUR index (MURX)
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
27% 39.59
YoY
31-Jul-2015
31-Jul
347.79
373.76
-0.27%
24-Jul
▼
-0.18%
-3.3%26.41
9,269 -3.44%
39.43
2.8755.99
137.87
VWAP391.39
-4.38%
-1.7%365.50
12.2%
140.30
YTD
29.23
1 Wk
57% ▼▼▲
365.50
0.43%
-6.7%
3% ▼
56.23
24-Jul
3.0%
6%7%
Currency
-0.40%
—
▼
Wt*
-1.9%
ETF & Commodity
Change
—
356.74
12.6%
— 52Wk
11.91
-0.5%
36.0231-Jul
-1.73%
12.46
147.10
-1.9%
-4.5%
2.2%
1.1%
-0.15%
-4.50%
-22.8% 434.25
Week Ended
352.75 352.96
-42.3%
-21.9%
-8.7%
0.1
-13.4%-0.06%
389.85
8,950
-11.1%
-1.73%
Investment Outlook
-2.51%391.04
YTD —52-Wk—Wk Ended
LCP
—
2.927.8%
-21.2%
2.9%
52 Wks
1.1%
-9.7%
29.31
Change
Val.
26.45 -0.1%
-0.31%
36.09
—
0% 8.1%
16.6%1 Wk
-18
-12
-6
0
6
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-2
012
USD EUR GBP
Elections
90
100
110
120
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-1
4
NewGold [Rs] Gold [$]70
80
90
100
110
120
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-1
4
NewPlat [Rs] Plat [$]40
55
70
85
100
115
Inde
x =
100
on 3
1-M
ar-1
4
Sugar [$] Crude [$]
8
Forex Market Watch
*where USDX is the USD Dollar index and MURX is an MUR index computed by AXYS against five peers using the trade basket
Net BoM purchases on FX Market
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
During the week ended Jul 31st 2015, the Bank of Mauritius did not intervene on the domestic foreign exchange market.
31-Jul-2015Investment Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
BoM FX purchases [Rs M
] Inde
x =
100
on 3
0-Ju
n-14
BoM MURX USDX
Elections BBCL License
revoked
6.71
8.91
11.92
7.18
10.37
8.55
3.80
14.89
14.57
7.5
10.2
15.7
22.1
24.9
8.6
31
29
30 31 31
35
40 40 39
41 41
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD bought [Rs bn] EUR bought [Rs bn]
USD VWAP [Rs] EUR VWAP [Rs]
9
SEM Listed Fund Net Asset Values
Africa Sustainability FundBayport Management LtdColina Holdings LtdFidelis Opportunity Fund PCC - Focus Cell 2Global Diversified Fund PCC - Cell No. 1Global Windsor Capital Fund LtdNovare Africa Fund PCCNinetyEast Timaeus Capital Fund PCC - Cell AP.O.L.I.C.Y. LtdRSJ Prop, PCCTriangle Real Estate India Fund LLCUniversal Golden FundAfrAsia Capital Management Ltd
– ACM India Focus Fund– ACM Aussie Ltd– ACM European Ltd– AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund – AfrAsia Special Opportunities Fund
AIGO Holdings PCC– AIGO UK Residential Property Fund– AIGO Commercial Property Fund– AIGO Natural Resources Fund
Global Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd– Kotak Indian Growth Fund (Class A)– Kotak Indian Mid-Cap Fund (Class C)– Kotak Liquid Fund (Class I)
Imara– Imara African Opportunities Fund Ltd– Imara Global Fund Ltd
IPRO LtdIPRO Growth Fund LtdIPRO African Market Leaders Fund Ltd
Kotak Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (KIOFL) Class D Shares– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 1)– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 2)
*NAV provided every Friday. AXYS uses the NAV value closest to month's end
Select Abbreviations
Disclaimer
Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com
130.1%
1.5%4.05
150.01
$
▲
Rs
£
AXYS Stockbroking Ltd has issued this document without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individualrecipient. AXYS Stockbroking Ltd will not be under any liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising in connection with the contents of thisdocument. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.This document has been based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. AXYSStockbroking Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. AXYSStockbroking Ltd is a member of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Commission.
$
$▲
1,078
Month Ended
590.63
16.5927.20
81.88
180.28
1.30
▲3.3%
10.84
-0.9%$€ 346.94
820.21
13.6%
£
0.7%
$
81.69
1.005.50
1.66
$
0.0%0.0%
306.18
-26.1%
5.3957.4%
8.3%1.22
—
5.5%
6.7%
1.61 -4.3%$ (AUD)
-1.6%$
1.00
$
-0.2%
0.0%
115.09
10.84498.09
183.11
▼▼
73.88
1.28▼
▲
325.23
1,856
817.60
-6.0%
481.84
156.6394.58
$
▲
▼ -0.2%
1,869R (ZAR)
2.11
27%99.53
9.77 32.4%0.93 -2.1%
1,065
2.24
0.94
5.61
7.38
1.00
8,310
0.1%
0.0%-3.6%
99.61
-11.1%1,052 -14.4%
-0.8%
£$
$ 0.93
—
▲
Change
-5.5%May-15 Jun-15
982YTD
Investment Outlook
945
$
▼▼
1,843
16.73
1.59
▲
2.25
819.00
-3.8%$
99.45▼
676.2%
-1.4%
▼
-1.1% -5.0%▼
6.1%
0.9%28.57
▲ Rs
577.81
▬8,593
-0.6%
16.9%
28.15
31-Jul-2015
▲
81.7382.21
-0.8%499.30
£
—
-0.5%
4.1%
4.8%
—
58.1%
595.42
95.77▲
181.80181.00
1.2%
$
▼
▼
▬109.35
▼
7.54
-2.4%8,623
0.0%10.84
Sectors:FIN = Financial; TL = Travel & Leisure; MSCH = Multi-Sector Conglomerates & Holdings; CONS = Consumer Staples; COND = Consumer Discretionary; MAT =Materials; IND = Industrials; HLTH = Health; COMM = Communications; PROP = Property; INVH = Investment Holdings; UT = Utilities; GOV = Public Sector;OTH =Other.