Item No. 3: Annual Presentation by Invesco — Active Commodities Manager (August 13, 2014, Regular Retirement Board Meeting) INVESTMENT MANAGER SUMMARY MANAGEMENT Firm Name Invesco Manager Tenure with Fund 11 Months Investment StrategyNehicle Commodities Contract Expiration Open Ended ASSETS' Total Firm AUM $802.4 Billion Total Firm Assets in Strategy $1.5 Billion Total Assets Managed for WPERP RP - $102.4 Million HP - $ 17.9 Million ' As of 6/30/2014 PERFORMANCE* as of 6/30/2014 QTD YTD Inception2 Invesco Balanced Risk Commodity Strategy (gross) 1.75% 3.13% -3.17% Invesco Balanced Risk Commodity Strategy (est. net) 1.57% 2.77% -3.62% DJ-UBS Commodities Index3 0.08% 7.08% 3.25% Difference (net of fees) 1.49% -4.31% -6.87% `Source: BNY Mellon 2 Inception date of 9/1/2013 3 As of 6/30/2014, DJ-UBS Commodities changed its name to Bloomberg Commodities Index FEES Current Fee 0.70% First $100 Million 0.55% Over $100 Million WATCH STATUS N/A PREVIOUSLY DISCLOSED LITIGATION N/A 3
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INVESTMENT MANAGER SUMMARY · 13/08/2014 · Firm Name Invesco Manager Tenure with Fund 11 Months Investment StrategyNehicle Commodities Contract Expiration Open Ended ASSETS' Total
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Item No. 3: Annual Presentation by Invesco — Active Commodities Manager (August 13, 2014, Regular Retirement Board Meeting)
Difference (net of fees) 1.49% -4.31% -6.87% `Source: BNY Mellon 2 Inception date of 9/1/2013 3 As of 6/30/2014, DJ-UBS Commodities changed its name to Bloomberg Commodities Index
FEES
Current Fee 0.70% First $100 Million 0.55% Over $100 Million
WATCH STATUS
N/A
PREVIOUSLY DISCLOSED LITIGATION
N/A
3
The Invesco Collective Trust Funds are bank collective trust funds for which Invesco National Trust Company serves as trustee and investment manager. They are available exclusively to qualified retirement plans. The funds are not FDIC insured or registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Fund investors and potential investors are strongly encouraged to review the funds' Declaration of Trust for additional information regarding the operation and investment objectives of the funds. Invesco Distributors, Inc., is the US distributor for the Invesco Collective Trust Funds. Both Invesco National Trust Company and Invesco Distributors, Inc. are indirect, wholly owned subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation of any security or product, nor constitute a recommendation of the suitability of any investment strategy for a particular investor. When evaluating whether a fund is appropriate for your investment goals, fund performance, fees and expenses are only a few of the criteria you should consider. You may also consider the investment objective, strategy and risks. Investment products offered are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and are Not Bank Guaranteed. 9599-08/14
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy Update for Second Quarter 2014
Water and Power Employees’ Retirement Plan August 13, 2014
Table of contents
2
Company Overview
Investment Process and Discipline
Market Overview
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance Review
Fee Schedule
Additional Information and Disclosures
Glossary of Investment Terms
3
Introduction
David Gluch, CFA – Client Portfolio Manager, Invesco Global Asset Allocation • Joined Invesco in 1995 • Served as head of U.S. Product Management from 2005 to 2012, overseeing
product positioning, strategy and servicing for the retail and institutional channels
• Received his B.B.A. in finance from University of Texas and is a CFA charter holder
Delia M. Roges – Managing Director, Public Funds Sales & Service Team • Joined Invesco in 2011 • Over 20 years of institutional investment management experience • Board of Regents Loyola Marymount University, Board of Advisors to the Dean
of the School of Education, Loyola Marymount University • MBA, University of Southern California; B.B.A.-Finance, Loyola Marymount
University
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Within the BRCS strategy, the team manages accounts for 3 public plans totalling $125M in AUM.
Explore Intentional Investing with Invesco
4
®
At Invesco, all of our people and all of our resources are dedicated to helping investors worldwide achieve their financial objectives. It’s a philosophy of investment excellence we call Intentional Investing®. As an independent firm, our global organization is solely focused on investment management: More than 750 investment professionals Global assets under management of
US$802.4 billion More than 6,000 employees worldwide
Invesco Asia-Pacific Asia ex-Japan Greater China Japan Australia Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, Melbourne, New Delhi, Shenzhen, Sydney, Taipei, Tokyo
Invesco Canada Trimark Investments Canadian, regional, sector and global equity Canadian and global fixed income Balanced portfolios Location: Toronto
Invesco Fixed Income Global liquidity Stable value Global and US broad fixed income Global alternatives and bank loans
Locations: Atlanta, Chicago, Hong Kong, Houston, London, Louisville, Melbourne, New York, Palm Harbor, FL, San Diego, Tokyo
Invesco Fundamental Equity US growth equity US value equity International and global growth equity Sector equity Balanced portfolios Locations: Austin, Houston, San Francisco
Invesco Global Asset Allocation Global macro Risk parity Commodities Active balanced solutions Locations: Atlanta, Frankfurt
Invesco Perpetual Global and regional equity, including UK, European, Asian, Japanese and emerging markets Global macro Fixed income Location: Henley, UK
Invesco PowerShares Index-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) and notes (ETNs) and actively managed ETFs Domestic and international equity Taxable and tax-free fixed income Commodities and currencies
Location: Chicago
Invesco Private Capital Private equity funds of funds Customized portfolios Locations: London, New York, San Francisco
Invesco Quantitative Strategies Quantitative equity Enhanced Long/short strategies Locations: Boston, Frankfurt, New York, Tokyo
Invesco Real Estate Global direct real estate investing Global public real estate investing
Locations: Atlanta, Beijing, Dallas, Hong Kong, London, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Munich, New York, Newport Beach, Paris, Prague, San Francisco, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Warsaw
Invesco Global Core Equity Emerging markets International and global equity US equity Locations: Atlanta, Hong Kong, San Francisco
WL Ross & Co. Distressed and restructuring private equity Energy private equity Locations: Beijing, Mumbai, New York, Tokyo
Source: Invesco. Invesco Ltd. client-related data, investment professional, employee data and AUM are as of June 30, 2014, and include all assets under advisement, distributed and overseen by Invesco, including those of its affiliates Invesco Distributors, Inc. and Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC, which have an agreement with Deutsche Bank to provide certain marketing services for the PowerShares DB products. Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC is the sponsor for the PowerShares QQQ and BLDRS products. ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the distributor of PowerShares QQQ, BLDRS Funds and the PowerShares DB Funds. Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC and Invesco Distributors, Inc. are wholly owned, indirect subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd. Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the US distributor for Invesco Ltd.’s retail products. Invesco Ltd. is not affiliated with ALPS Distributors, Inc. or Deutsche Bank. The listed centers do not all provide products or services that are available in all jurisdictions, nor are their products and services available on all platforms. The entities listed are each wholly owned, indirect subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd., except ALPS Distributors Inc., Deutsche Bank and Invesco Great Wall in Shenzhen, which is a joint venture between Invesco and Great Wall Securities, and the Huaneng Invesco WLR Investment Consulting Company Ltd. in Beijing, which is a joint venture between Huaneng Capital Services and Invesco WLR Limited. Please consult your Invesco representative for more information.
5
Invesco Global Asset Allocation Investment strategies
Source: Invesco as of 06/30/14. 1Strategy will occasionally have small short positions in individual commodities. Short sales may cause the strategy to repurchase a security at a higher price, causing a loss. As there is no limit on how much the price of the security can increase, the strategy’s exposure is unlimited. Total GAA assets include $6.0 billion managed in multi-asset portfolios.
Global Asset Allocation: $29.6 B
Long-Only Long-Short
Multi-Asset Classes
Invesco Balanced-Risk Allocation Strategy (IBRA): $21.1 B
Invesco Global Markets Strategy (GMS): $539mm
Individual Asset Classes
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy (BRCS)1: $1.5 B Invesco Macro International Equity Strategy: $8.3mm
Invesco Macro Long/Short Strategy: $14.1mm
Research Focus:
Risk Allocation and Management – balance risk exposures and create well-defined risk budgets
Smart Beta – improve the expected Sharpe Ratio within asset classes
Tactical Allocation – improve the risk-return profile by shifting away from the strategic portfolio weights
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Within the BRCS strategy, the team manages accounts for 3 public plans totalling $125M in AUM.
Invesco Global Asset Allocation Investment team
6
As of 06/30/14. In addition to the members above, the team is supported by one Business Analyst and two Portfolio Analysts. Client portfolio managers (CPMs) are integrated with Invesco’s investment teams and involved in the ongoing research matters of their respective team’s portfolios. The primary responsibilities of the CPM are to represent the portfolios in the marketplace and to manage the business responsibilities of the investment team. The CPM does not manage fund assets.
Team founded in 2000
11 team members with 20 years average experience
Team Member
In the Industry Since
With the Firm Since
Education
Scott Wolle, CFA Chief Investment Officer
1991 1999 Duke University, M.B.A. Virginia Tech, B.Sc.
Mark Ahnrud, CFA Portfolio Manager
1985 2000 Duke University, M.B.A. Babson College, B.Sc.
Chris Devine, CFA Portfolio Manager
1996 1998 University of Georgia, M.B.A. Wake Forest University, B.A.
Scott Hixon, CFA Portfolio Manager, Head of Investment Research
1992 1994 Georgia State University, M.B.A. Georgia Southern University, B.B.A.
Christian Ulrich, CFA Portfolio Manager
1987 2000 KV Zurich Business School, Switzerland
John Centner Investment Systems Analyst
1999 2012 University of Tennessee, B.A.
Raymond Fu Quantitative Analyst
2007 2007 Georgia State University, M.S. Georgia Institute of Technology, B.Sc.
David Gluch, CFA Client Portfolio Manager
1995 1995 University of Texas, B.B.A.
Mike McHugh, CFA Client Portfolio Manager
1996 1998 Bellevue University, B.S.
Dr. Bernhard Pfaff Portfolio Manager
1998 2005 University of Freiburg i. Br., Doctorate Degree University of Freiburg i. Br.
Max Andres Widmer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 1988 2013 Graduate School of Business Administration, (GSBA
Zurich, Switzerland), B.B.A.
Invesco Global Asset Allocation Key Invesco contacts
7
Source: Invesco. As of 06/30/14.
Delia Roges Managing Director, Invesco Public Funds 101 California Street, Suite 1800 San Francisco, CA 94111 415-445-3388 Dave Gluch, CFA Client Portfolio Manager, Invesco Global Asset Allocation 11 Greenway Plaza, Suite 1000 Houston, TX 77046 713-214-7994 George Avery Senior Product Manager, Invesco Global Asset Allocation 1555 Peachtree Street, NE Atlanta, GA 30309 404-439-3460 Scott Wolle, CFA Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Global Asset Allocation 1555 Peachtree Street, NE Atlanta, GA 30309 404-439-3064
Table of contents
8
Company Overview
Investment Process and Discipline
Market Overview
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance Review
Strategy objectives The investment objective is to provide total return.
Outperform the Bloomberg Commodity Index by 5% per year over a full market cycle
Better diversification than the index
Additional benefits No lock-up
Daily liquidity
Transparency
Please see the derivatives and leverage risk disclosures on page 31 of this document. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index changed it’s name to the Bloomberg Commodity Index on 06/30/14.
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy Drivers of return: four key sources
10
Source: Invesco. As of 06/30/14. For illustrative purposes only.
Structural Sources Tactical Sources
Storage Difficulty Rebalancing Optimal Roll Tactical Allocation
Long-term returns driven by average term structure which is determined by difficulty of storage and scarcity
Potential rebalancing return is higher than that available for most other asset classes; most indices ignore this
Term structure of commodity futures creates opportunity to achieve higher returns than available through front-month investments
Alter exposure to commodities based on three considerations:
Sources: Invesco analysis and Bloomberg. Time period represented: 10/90 – 12/13. Backwardation refers to a status where prices of futures contracts with a longer maturity are lower than the spot price of the commodity. Contango refers to a status where prices of futures contracts with a longer maturity are higher than the spot price of the commodity. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.
WTI Crude Oil
Heating Oil
Natural Gas
Gasoline
Copper
Gold Silver
Soy Meal
Wheat
Soybean Oil
Soybeans
Corn
Live Cattle
Gasoil
Cotton Coffee
Sugar
Aluminum
Brent
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
-20 -10 0 10 20
Ave
rage
Ann
ualiz
ed E
xces
s Ret
urn
(%)
Average Annualized Term Structure (%)
Universe
Define universe of commodities: Liquid commodities
Backwardation Contango
Top 30% get a weight multiplier of 1.0 and the bottom 30% are excluded
Commodities between the 30th and 70th percentile are ranked according to their term structure
Term Structure Adjustment
Strategic allocation based on term structure to emphasize commodities that are scarce or difficult to store
100% 0%
Backwardation
Contango
Focus on Storage Difficulty Strategic Commodity Selection
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy Step one: Tactical sources of return - optimal roll yield
13
Sources: Invesco analysis and DataStream. Data from 12/31/91 to 12/31/13. For illustrative purposes only. Front Month return is the GSCI Crude Oil excess return. Optimal Roll return is the Deutsche Bank Optimum Yield Light Crude Oil excess return. Term Structure of futures contracts refers to the price curve formed by the prices of futures contracts over various expiration months. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
02/09 04/09 06/09 08/09 10/09 12/09
Con
trac
t Pr
ice
on 1
2/31
/08
(%)
Contract Expiration
-8.2
-1.9
0
5
10
15
20
20 30 40
Ann
ualiz
ed E
xces
s Ret
urn
(%)
Standard Deviation (Risk)
Optimal Roll 11.7 / 26.1
Front Month 4.2 / 32.2
Term Structure Optimal Roll vs. Front Month: Excess Return and Risk
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy Step two: Structural sources of return - portfolio construction
14
Sources: Invesco analysis and DataStream. As of 06/30/14. 1The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index changed it’s name to the Bloomberg Commodity Index on 06/30/14.
Strategic Allocation is calculated through volatility and correlation estimates and re-set monthly
Active positioning allows the asset weights to deviate from the long-term strategic allocation and is adjusted monthly
Depending on the tactical indicators, the portfolio can be positioned within the pre-determined risk ranges
15
Asset classes are subject to change and are not buy/sell recommendations. Source: Invesco analysis. Above figures do not represent specific time periods or actual portfolio results. For illustrative purposes only.
Source: Invesco analysis. The risk contributions represent each asset class as a percentage of the total portfolio standard deviation in the month in which it was implemented. Data as of 06/30/14.
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance Review
Fee Schedule
Additional Information and Disclosures
Glossary of Investment Terms
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101
111
Inde
x Val
ue (
100=
Peak
)
Months from Peak
Commodity performance tends to reverse The experience since 2008 has been as bad as any in modern history
18
100
1,000
12/7
0
12/7
5
12/8
0
12/8
5
12/9
0
12/9
5
12/0
0
12/0
5
12/1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101
111
Inde
x Val
ue (
100=
Peak
)
Months from Peak
1974 1980
1997 2008
11/1974 10/1980
5/1997
6/2008
-46% -51%
-41%
-55%
Jan-14 -42%
2008
Best & Worst of
1974, 1980, 1997
After 72 months, the index is still 42% below prior peaks – nearly the
worst experience in modern history.
1974 had the fastest recovery at 5 years. 1980 took 10 years but
bottomed after 5.
Commodity excess return index1 Major losses and recoveries 2008 vs. best and worst experiences
Sources: DataStream and Invesco analysis. Data from 01/31/70 to 06/30/14. 1GSCI Commodity Index used for this analysis. Please note that a logarithmic scale is being used in the left chart. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The four periods of loss are named for the year in which the index reached a major local peak. The recovery is considered complete when the index exceeds the prior local peak. Excess return above treasury bills.
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy Representative asset class performance returns
19
Industrial Metals Energy Agriculture Precious Metals
Sources: Bloomberg L.P., GSCI and Invesco analysis. Data as of 06/30/14 based on continuous future return indices. commodities represented by the S&P GSCI sub-indices. *Not included in the Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy strategic allocation. **Non-index assets included in the Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index changed it’s name to the Bloomberg Commodity Index on 06/30/14. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy Term structure - based asset selection for strategic allocation
20
Source: Invesco analysis. As of 06/30/14. *Gold receives a full weight in the strategic allocation due to the requirement that each complex have at least one fully weighted asset. For illustrative purposes only. Term Structure of futures contracts refers to the price curve formed by the prices of futures contracts over various expiration months.
Commodity excess returns tend to move along with the global GDP
Sources: DataStream, World Bank, Goldman Sachs and Invesco analysis. Data from 01/31/70 to 12/31/13. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 1 Excess return above treasury bills. 2 2013 estimate and 2014 forecast from Goldman Sachs Economic Research.
Table of contents
22
Company Overview
Investment Process and Discipline
Market Overview
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance Review
Fee Schedule
Additional Information and Disclosures
Glossary of Investment Terms
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Trust Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan account portfolio summary
23
All data as of 06/30/14. Source: Invesco analysis. Water & Power’s combined account fee schedule is 70 bp on the first $100mm and 55 bp thereafter. 1Bloomberg Commodity Index. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index changed it’s name to the Bloomberg Commodity Index on 06/30/14.
All data as of 06/30/14. Source: Invesco analysis. Water & Power’s combined account fee schedule is 70 bp on the first $100mm and 55 bp thereafter. 1Bloomberg Commodity Index. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index changed it’s name to the Bloomberg Commodity Index on 06/30/14.
25
Source: Invesco analysis and gross of fees. Data as of 06/30/14. *Portfolio performance inception: 09/01/13. Note: Returns are gross of fees; net returns will be lower. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Attribution Returns Since Inception
Precious Metals (%)
Agriculture/ Livestock (%)
Energy (%)
Industrial Metals (%)
Active Positioning (%)
Cash (%)
Total (%)
Retirement Plan -2.38 0.99 0.52 0.01 -2.37 0.06 -3.17
Health Benefit -2.40 0.96 0.52 -0.01 -2.41 0.06 -3.28
0.06
-2.38
0.99
0.52 0.01
-2.37 -3.17
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Since Inception Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Return Attribution (%)
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance history as of June 30, 2014
0.06
-2.40
0.96
0.52 -0.01
-2.41 -3.28
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Since Inception Water & Power Retiree Health Benefits Plan Return Attribution (%)
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Fund Asset Growth
26
Portfolio Changes (Retirement Plan)
Amount
Initial Value Invested as of 9/1/13 $105,761,290
Net Additions/(Withdrawals) $0
Income Received $0
Market Appreciation $(3,354,840)
Market Value as of 6/30/14 $102,406,452
Portfolio Changes (Retiree Health Benefits Fund)
Amount
Initial Value Invested as of 9/1/13 $18,499,898
Net Additions/(Withdrawals) $0
Income Received $0
Market Appreciation $(607,490)
Market Value as of 6/30/14 $17,892,408
Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy Asset allocation versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index
27
Sources: Invesco analysis and Bloomberg. Past allocations are not a guarantee of future allocations. Data as of 06/30/14. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index changed its name to the Bloomberg Commodity Index on 06/30/14.
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance Review
Fee Schedule
Additional Information and Disclosures
Glossary of Investment Terms
Water and Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Fee Schedule
29
• Management Fee: o 70 basis points on the first $100 million o 55 basis points thereafter
Table of contents
30
Company Overview
Investment Process and Discipline
Market Overview
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance Review
Fee Schedule
Additional Information and Disclosures
Glossary of Investment Terms
Invesco disclaimer
31
Derivatives Risk The Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy invests (directly or indirectly) a substantial portion of its assets in "derivatives"–so-called because their value "derives" from the value of an underlying asset (including an underlying security), reference rate or index–the value of which may rise or fall more rapidly than other investments. The strategy invests principally in exchange-traded futures across a diverse mix of assets including equities, bonds and commodities. The Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy is a long-only strategy, so the portfolio will hold no net short positions at any time. For some derivatives, it is possible to lose more than the amount invested in the derivative. If the portfolio uses derivatives to "hedge" a portfolio risk, it is possible that the hedge may not succeed. This may happen for various reasons, including unexpected changes in the value of the rest of the portfolio. Over the counter derivatives are also subject to counterparty risk, which is the risk that the other party to the contract will not fulfill its contractual obligation to complete the transaction with the Fund. Leverage Risk The Invesco Balanced-Risk Commodity Strategy employs leverage as a fundamental element within the investment strategy. The implementation of a risk parity strategy requires the use of leverage in order to increase the risk of the government bond allocation in the strategy so that it can be balanced against the portfolio’s exposure to stocks and commodities. The use of derivatives facilitates the ability to create the desired level of leverage in the portfolio. Leverage may cause the portfolio to be more volatile than if the portfolio had not been leveraged because leverage can exaggerate the effect of any increase or decrease in the value of securities held by the portfolio.
Table of contents
32
Company Overview
Investment Process and Discipline
Market Overview
Water & Power Employees’ Retirement Plan Performance Review
Fee Disclosure
Additional Information and Disclosures
Glossary of Investment Terms
Backwardation. A status where prices of futures contracts with a longer maturity are lower than the spot price of the commodity.
Contango. A status where prices of futures contracts with a longer maturity are higher than the spot price of the commodity.
Front Month. Used in futures trading to refer to the contract month with an expiration date closest to the current date, which is often in the same month.
Futures Contract. A financial contract obligating the buyer to purchase an asset (or the seller to sell an asset), such as a physical commodity or a financial instrument, at a predetermined future date and price. Futures contracts detail the quality and quantity of the underlying asset; they are standardized to facilitate trading on a futures exchange.
Optimal Roll. Optimizing the roll yield by choosing the most attractive futures contract.
Roll Yield. The amount of return generated in a backwardated futures market that is achieved by rolling a short-term contract into a longer-term contract and profiting from the convergence toward a higher spot price.
Spot Price. The current price at which a particular security can be bought or sold at a specified time and place. A security's spot price is regarded as the explicit value of the security at any given time in the marketplace.
Standard Deviation. Standard deviation measures a fund’s range of total returns and identifies the spread of a fund’s short-term fluctuations.
Term Structure. Term Structure of futures contracts refers to the price curve formed by the prices of futures contracts over various expiration months.