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Every cycle is different Are investors paying too high a price for risk aversion New Model Adviser Retreat 13-14 September 2012 Max King, portfolio manager and strategist
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Page 1: Investec asset management

Every cycle is different Are investors paying too high a price for risk aversion

New Model Adviser Retreat – 13-14 September 2012

Max King, portfolio manager and strategist

Page 2: Investec asset management

Page 2 | CONFIDENTIAL

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A typical range of UK model portfolios

● Rising risk levels result in asset allocation shifting from cash through bonds to UK

equities, then emerging markets

Source: Investec Asset Management

Risk

Level UK Cash

UK

Corporate

Bonds

UK Index

Linked

Bonds

International

Bonds UK Gilts UK Equity

International

Equity UK Property

1 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2 44% 5% 0% 5% 27% 5% 4% 10%

3 5% 20% 0% 15% 25% 10% 5% 20%

4 5% 33% 0% 0% 0% 27% 16% 19%

5 5% 22% 0% 0% 0% 29% 31% 13%

6 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 43% 33% 8%

7 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 50% 40% 2%

8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 43% 0%

9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 70% 0%

10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 95% 0%

Page 3: Investec asset management

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The methodology

Expected returns, volatilities and correlations were derived from the data series history for

each asset class

but

“People are habitually guided by the rear-view mirror and, for the most part, by the vistas

immediately behind them.”

Warren Buffett

If “past performance is of little or no value in itself as an indicator of future

performance” (FSA 2001 report) how can it be an appropriate way to study risk?

Page 4: Investec asset management

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What is risk?

● Risk is “the risk of a permanent loss of capital” – Benjamin Graham

● This can be split into three sets of risk: valuation risk, business/earnings risk and

balance sheet/financing risk – James Montier

● Risk is generally highest when it appears lowest and lowest when it appears highest

● Risk is not constant: it varies over the cycle and in a pattern influenced by human nature

and unpredictable events

Page 5: Investec asset management

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The perfect investment?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

19

90

19

91

19

91

19

92

19

92

19

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93

19

94

19

94

19

95

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95

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00

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01

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01

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04

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05

20

06

20

06

20

07

20

07

20

08

US

D

Time

Value of $100, invested in 1990

Fairf ield Sentry S&P 500

Risk free returns?

Source: Bloomberg

Page 6: Investec asset management

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Meet the manager

Page 7: Investec asset management

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Do bonds always diversify equity risk?

● In the 1960s and the current decade, yes but in between, only in the short term

● For significant periods of time, government bonds reduced the performance of multi-

asset funds without significantly reducing risk

Rolling 10 year correlation; 12 m % change in S&P 500 & Bond yields

Source: Absolute Strategy Research

Page 8: Investec asset management

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Does equity diversification reduce risk?

● In the 2000-2003 bear market, yes. Avoiding TMT and high growth stocks for lowly-

valued “old-economy” stocks enabled investors to avoid the bear market

MSCI World index sector returns

Source: Investec Asset Management

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Does equity diversification reduce risk?

● But in 2008-2009, it didn’t work

MSCI World index sector returns

Source: Investec Asset Management

Page 10: Investec asset management

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The right base currency can help…

● …but only sometimes. Sterling based investors were insulated in 2008-2009 but not in

2000-2003

1/5/12

J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

MSCI AC WORLD U$ - TOT RETURN IND

MSCI AC WORLD £ - TOT RETURN IND

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

MSCI AC World index returns in $ and £: 2000-2003 and 2008-2009 1/5/12

2000 2001 2002 2003

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

MSCI WORLD U$ - TOT RETURN IND

MSCI WORLD £ - TOT RETURN IND

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Source: DataStream

Page 11: Investec asset management

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The rear view mirror: UK gilts

3.5% War loan rose from £20 in late 1974 to £98 at the end of 2011, resulting in a

compound nominal return of 22% per annum…

● ...but it was issued at par, and the coupon was cut from 5% in 1932, when trading well

above par! In real terms, the capital loss was about 96% between 1932 and late 1974

W AR LOAN 3 1/2% IRR. RUMP - MARKET PRICE

FROM 01/01/74 TO 16/02/12 MONTHLY

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Source: DataStream

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The rear view mirror: US equities

S&P 10 year compound total return

Source: Legg Mason, 2010

● …but bad decades have led to good decades. “Following the 13 prior periods since

1871 in which 10 year real stock returns turned negative, stocks averaged a real return

of more than 10% per year over the next 10 years”

The 10 year rolling return on US equities turned negative in late 2008, discouraging even

long term investors…

Page 13: Investec asset management

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Value matters: equities

● Prospective p/e is 12.5 X consensus 2012 earnings and 11 X the 2013 consensus

● Prospective p/e at March 2009 low was over 10 with earnings forecasts falling fast

● But note that mid 2007 saw neither euphoria nor despair

W ORLD-DS Market - PER

FROM 1/1/85 TO 4/4/12 MONTHLY

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Source: DataStream

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Value matters: bonds

● How can government bonds at historical lows and with negative real yields be an

attractive investment proposition?

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Real*

10 y

r govern

ment

bond y

ield

s

(%)

Germany US UK

Source: Newton

Bonds promoted as offering risk free returns are now poised to deliver return-free risk

Page 15: Investec asset management

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1945

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Volatility is just a coincident indicator of bear markets

● Risk aversion based solely on volatility would lead to investors avoiding equities at

market lows

● Volatility is the inevitable counterpart to excess returns

12 month rolling S&P volatility

Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg

Bear markets

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0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

What happened next?

● January 2000 – December 2009 compound return of 5.7% with annualised volatility

of 6.9%

Rolling 18 month volatility Total return

Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg

Page 17: Investec asset management

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0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

What happened next – 10 year Greek bonds

● January 2010 – December 2011 compound return of -41% with annualised volatility

of 28.7%

Rolling 18 month volatility Total return

Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg

Page 18: Investec asset management

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What happens next? – 10 year US Treasuries

● January 2000 – April 2012 compound return of 9% with rolling 12 month volatility of 13.8%

● “past performance is of little or no value in itself as an indicator of future performance”

Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg

100

150

200

250

300

0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

12 Month Rolling Volatility

Total Return

Page 19: Investec asset management

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Buy high, sell low

● Pension funds, supposedly long term investors, have reduced equity holdings in favour

of bonds as equities have become cheaper and bonds more expensive

● Bond weightings have risen from 19% in 2000 (when equities were 72%) to 43%

UK pension fund equity holdings as % of total

Source: Oriel Securities

Page 20: Investec asset management

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The trend is

holding – I’ll buy

at the next

consolidation

Market is

going up –

we need to

watch this

Damn! I missed

the consolidation,

but if I wait any

longer, I won’t

profit from the

trend. BUY!

Good thing I

didn’t wait

I’ll use this correction to

increase my position

Brilliant, at this price

lets add some more

Ouch. As

soon as it

goes back

up, I’m selling

I don’t believe it, its

below 5000. It’s hit

its absolute bottom

OK, let’s wait for it to

recover – otherwise

this will have to be a

really long-term

investment I’m selling out Good thing I

sold

It’s going to

tank anyway

Told you

so

Must be

hedge funds

selling

shorts

What’s going

on?

The buyers of this

market are going

to get buried

I knew this market was

going up

DAMN! I’ll

buy again. It’s

still cheap

● Is risk assessment any different?

Investor behaviour

Source: Investec Asset Management

The psychology of investment

Page 21: Investec asset management

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The risk of risk aversion

● Few people save enough or own sufficient assets to provide for their retirement or other

long-term spending requirements

− Investment returns are usually essential to bridge the gap

● Is regret more painful than risk?

− This can lead to capitulation to the bull case at precisely the wrong time

● “Low risk” strategies often don’t work

− How did hedge funds perform in 2008? In many cases, badly

− Are government bonds really low risk?

Page 22: Investec asset management

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Conclusions

● The characteristics of each cycle are different and subject to changing dynamics

● Portfolio construction strategies based on past experience are an exercise in preparing

to re-fight the battles of the last war: they don’t work

● Volatility should not be the sole basis for assessing risk

● Tools for short term traders have limited relevance for long term investors

● Investors are in severe danger of becoming locked into strategies which condemn them,

at best, to mediocre return

● “Avoidance of risk” will be a poor excuse for disappointed investors

● The key to investment strategies which deliver attractive low risk returns is to be flexible,

forward thinking and proactive. This has at least a chance of success whereas hindsight

trading doesn’t

Our solution for UK investors?

Investec Managed Solutions

Page 23: Investec asset management

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Managed Solutions from Investec

Growth & Protection

● An actively managed multi-

asset fund with additional

downside protection

● Aims to protect at 80% of

the highest ever share

price*

Growth & Income

● Aims for growth & income

● Blends equities with

complementary assets

● Managed by renowned

contrarian, Alastair Mundy

Real Returns

● Aims to provide investors

with a real return of CPI

+5%pa** over the long-term

● Multi-asset portfolio aiming

to limit drawdown and

volatility

Growth

● Aims to provide capital

growth from a diversified

equity centric portfolio

● Multi-asset and

unconstrained

● Dynamic asset allocation

Source: Investec Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only based on the risk profiles of the Funds

Dynamic Planner is a registered trademark of Distribution Technology

Ratings as at 31 May 2012. *Protection is not guaranteed. **This is an aim and is not guaranteed

Pote

ntial re

turn

Potential Risk

Attractive Income

● Aims to provide an

attractive, sustainable yield

● Seeks the most attractive

yield opportunities across a

global multi-asset portfolio

Multi-Asset Protector Fund Cautious Managed Fund Diversified Growth Fund Managed Growth Fund Diversified Income Fund

Page 24: Investec asset management

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Our approach to multi-asset investment (1)

● Good stock selection, as much as asset allocation, has been the key to equity

performance in the UK since 2000

Invest in funds with alpha!

Source: DataStream

9/2/12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEXROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.BT GROUPNEXT

BG GROUPBRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCOBP

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Page 25: Investec asset management

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Our approach to multi-asset investment (2)

Invest in thematic opportunities! 09/02/12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX

MSCI EM U$ - PRICE INDEX

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

9/2/12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX

HSBC WORLD INCL. US SMALLER COS. $ - PRICE INDEX

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

9/2/12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX

MSCI ACWI CONS STAPLES $ - PRICE INDEX

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

9/2/12

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX

MSCI ACWI IT $ - PRICE INDEX

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

14/2/12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX

MSCI ACWI ENERGY $ - PRICE INDEX

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

9/2/12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX

HSBC GLOBAL GOLD $ - PRICE INDEX

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Emerging markets: more upside? Consumer staples: more upside? Technology: more upside?

Smaller companies: more upside? Gold mining: Struggling badly Energy: run out of steam?

Source: DataStream, 09 February 2012

Page 26: Investec asset management

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Our approach to multi-asset investment (3)

Other key objectives

● Timely tactical asset allocation

● Search for new opportunities and exercise vigilance for fading ones

● Evolution of strategic asset allocation as the market cycle advances

● Real diversification within as well as between Growth, Defensive & Uncorrelated

categories

● Control costs

Page 27: Investec asset management

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Investec Asset Management – RDR ready

● A comprehensive range of Managed Solutions

− Market leading and innovative funds

− Managed by highly experienced fund managers

− Risk profiled and highly regarded

● RDR friendly, clean share classes

Page 28: Investec asset management

Thank you www.investecassetmanagement.com

Page 29: Investec asset management

Appendix

Page 30: Investec asset management

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Investment team

Philip Saunders – Head of Strategy

MA History (Cambridge) 1980

● 31 years investment experience

● Originally a currency and fixed income

specialist

● Founder director of Guinness Flight Global

Asset Management (acquired by Investec

in 1998)

● Led Guinness Flight’s award winning currency

and fixed income team from 1987 to 1995

● Established and led Investec’s multi manager

activity 1999

● Head of Strategy 2004

Max King – Investment Manager

MA Economics (Cambridge) 1978, ACA

● 28 years investment experience

● Qualified chartered accountant

● LF Rothschild proprietary equity trading team

● 1987 to 1997 director / senior investment

manager Finsbury Asset Management

● JO Hambro director and UK investment

manager 1997 – 2003

● Joined Investec in 2004

Page 31: Investec asset management

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Investec Diversified Growth Fund (DGF)

Objective

● The Fund aims to provide investors with Real Returns of UK CPI +5%*

A modern approach to multi-asset investing

● Dynamic and flexible asset allocation across a diverse range of asset classes, including

active, passive and alternatives

● Asset classes are grouped into Growth, Defensive and Uncorrelated baskets with similar

returns characteristics

● The process seeks to limit volatility and client losses

● Unlike MAP, no protection. More active asset allocation than Cautious Managed with a

higher allocation to risk assets in growth environments, but not full risk-on, as is

Managed Growth

Managed by Investment Specialists

● Managed by IAM’s Multi-Asset Investment Team,

● Leverages Investec’s specialist in-house investment capabilities

*Over a 3 to 5 year rolling time period, gross of fees. This is an aim and is not guaranteed

Page 32: Investec asset management

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Diversified Growth: a modern approach to portfolio construction

An integrated approach

Overall asset allocation and currency overlay

• Public and private

equities

• High yield

• Property

• Emerging markets debt

• Commodities

Growth Defensive Uncorrelated

20 - 70% 20 - 75% 5 - 30%

Risk overlay (Hedging, Tactical management)

• Government bonds

• Index linked bonds

• Investment Grade debt

• Gold

• Currencies

• Infrastructure

• Relative value

• Multi-strategy

• Trend followers

• Global Macro

These internal parameters are subject to change without notification necessarily to investors

Page 33: Investec asset management

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NAV RISK

Uncorrelated

Growth

Defensive

Current portfolio positioning Diversified Growth as at 31 July 2012

% portfolio exposure

The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time

Source: Investec Asset Management, Data as at 31 July 2012

Update

Monthly

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER

OEIC\MASTER Diversif ied Growth\Evidence\Diversif i

ed Growth evidence.xlsx\AA Pie

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER

OEIC\MASTER Diversif ied Growth\Evidence\Diversif i

ed Growth evidence.xlsx\Asset

% of NAV % of Risk

21.5 0.0

20.3 22.1

11.3 8.1

Gold 1.9 4.2

3.9 5.2

3.2 4.5

47.7 70.4

9.5 17.4

11.2 11.5

17.2 29.1

0.9 1.9

1.0 2.4

2.7 4.3

1.4 1.9

5.0 8.1

6.2 10.6

1.8 4.5

3.1 5.5

4.9 2.4

10.5 7.6

5.1 3.5

4.1 2.0

0.3 0.5

1.0 1.6

100.0 100.0

Absolute Return Fixed Income

Cash

Defensive

Investment Grade

Volatility

High Yield

Growth

Global Equities (full beta)

Global Equities (defensive)

Thematic Equity

Technology

Emerging Markets

Japan

Healthcare

Private Equity

Small Cap

Property

Commodities

Uncorrelated

Diversif ied Hedge Beta

Infrastructure

Timber

Catastrophe Reinsurance

Page 34: Investec asset management

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Investec Diversified Growth Fund Comparative index performance track record

Past Performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future

Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, net of UK basic rate tax (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial charge), in GBP

* Since inception: 28 December 2006

** Comparative index = 45% MSCI AC World NR USD, 35% BofA ML UK Gilts 1-10 Year and 20% FTSE All-Share

Annual performance in GBP Cumulative performance in GBP

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Dec 06 Oct 07 Jul 08 May 09 Mar 10 Dec 10 Oct 11 Jul 12

Investec Diversified Growth A Inc Net

Comparative index**

17.7

26.3

0.1%

4.1%

-21.8%

20.0%

12.3%

-5.6%

4.9%

0.0%3.2%

-25.1%

28.5%

18.4%

-5.6%

5.9%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

2006 (Dec) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (YTD)

Investec Diversified Growth A Inc Net

Comparative index**

1 month 3 months YTD 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a.

Since inception

p.a.*

Comparative index** 2.3% 0.1% 4.9% -0.7% 7.9% 1.2% 1.5%

Investec Diversified Growth A Inc Net 2.4% -0.3% 5.9% -1.0% 11.2% 3.1% 3.0%

Relative performance 0.1% -0.4% 1.0% -0.3% 3.2% 1.9% 1.4%

Page 35: Investec asset management

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“An opportunity for investors to access the market through a multi-asset

portfolio aiming to provide unlimited upside with the comfort of downside

protection.” Four elements of protection:

Investec Multi-Asset Protector Fund

* The Fund aims to provide downside protection at 80% of the Fund’s highest ever price.

1. Multi-asset universe allows for greater diversification and potential enhanced returns for

the same or less risk as an equity-only portfolio

2. Active management aims to guard against market downturns and enhance the benefit

of market upturns

3. Dynamic allocation through a pre-defined model to the cash portfolio, seeks to ensure

the Fund is less exposed to investment markets when markets are falling

4. Downside protection mechanism. The Fund will invest in a derivative contract, with a

single counterparty*. The Fund aims, through this contract, to provide protection against

the risk of a decline in the share price below 80% of the highest price ever achieved;

however, such an outcome is not guaranteed

Page 36: Investec asset management

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-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Mar-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12

Perc

enta

ge G

row

th

1246 days f rom 30 January 2009 to 31 July 2012

Investec Multi Asset Protector A Acc Net

IMA Protected

IMA Money Market

IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares

26.3

4.3

37.8

1.5

31.8

Investec Multi-Asset Protector Fund (MAP)

MAP Fund vs. Cautious Managed sector

Box information

from the website:

http://www.invest

ecassetmanage

ment.com/united-

kingdom/categor

y/2998

Use NAV price

and below it will

show the

protected price

Max investment

level comes from

Laura Reyes

Past performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future

Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, income reinvested (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial charge) net of

UK basic rate tax, in sterling

* Launch date 30 January 2009

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER

OEIC\MASTER MAP (Philip Saunders & Max King)\Evidence\Master

MAP.xlsx\Performance_Cht

Update

Monthly

9 August 2012 MAP 2

Bid price 100.5

Protected price 80.4

Effective level

of protection 80.0

Max investment

level 99.0%

9 August 2012 MAP

Bid price 126.9

Protected price 108.9

Effective level

of protection 86.0

Max investment

level 70.0%

Page 37: Investec asset management

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Investec Diversified Income Fund

● Aims to provide an attractive yield through an actively managed multi-asset portfolio

● Managed by highly experienced portfolio managers John Stopford and Max King,

backed by a specialist Multi-Asset team

● Uses the breadth and depth of Investec’s global investment capabilities across the

developed and emerging world

● Actively manages downside risk

● RDR-ready share class and part of Investec’s Managed Solutions Range

Attractive income from a diversified portfolio of “global best ideas”

* The Distribution Yield reflects the amount that may be expected to be distributed over the 12 months beginning 1 October 2012, as a percentage

of the mid-market unit price of the Fund. The Underlying Yield reflects the annualised income expected to be received by the Fund. Both are based

on a snapshot of the portfolio as at 31 August 2012, are not guaranteed, will vary over time and take no account of any preliminary charge. The

Distribution Yield is higher than the Underlying Yield because the Fund’s expenses are charged to capital. This has the effec t of increasing the

Fund’s distribution (which may be taxable) whilst reducing its capital to an equivalent extent and may constrain future capital and income growth.

Distribution yield: 5.5%*

Underlying yield: 3.9%*

Page 38: Investec asset management

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Investec Diversified Income Fund Comparative index performance track record

Past Performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future

Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, net of UK basic rate tax (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial charge), in GBP

*Since inception: 31 December 2002

** Comparative index: 33% Equities = FTSE All Share; 33% Bonds = B of A ML European Currency Non-Financial High Yield Constrained

GBP Hedged; 17% Emerging Markets Bonds = JPM GBI-EM; 17% Emerging Markets Bonds = EMBIG Global Diversified

Annual performance in GBP Cumulative performance in GBP

19.3%13.5%

17.4%

8.5%5.3%

-14.0%

34.2%

15.9%

-0.3%

9.2%

20.9%

12.8%

22.0%

16.8%

5.3%

-29.9%

30.1%

14.5%

-3.5%

4.7%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (YTD)

Comparative index**

FTSE All-Share TR

1 month 3 months YTD 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a.

Since inception

p.a.*

Comparative index** 2.1% 2.6% 9.2% 6.3% 13.1% 8.6% 10.7%

FTSE All-Share TR 1.3% -1.0% 4.7% 0.4% 11.3% 1.3% 8.4%

Relative performance 0.8% 3.6% 4.5% 6.0% 1.9% 7.3% 2.3%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

180.0%

Dec 02 May 04 Sep 05 Feb 07 Jun 08 Nov 09 Mar 11 Jul 12

Comparative index**

FTSE All-Share TR

164.2

116.0

Page 39: Investec asset management

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10353

Investec Cautious Managed Fund

● Managed by IAM’s highly regarded “contrarian” team headed by Alastair Mundy

● The investment approach aims to ensure the Fund is protected against as many

different outcomes as possible

● The portfolio is built from an equity centric platform... with complementary assets added

to dampen the natural equity volatility

● The Fund is happy to use cash, international equities and international bonds as well as

UK equities

● The Fund is currently using index-linked government bonds, Norwegian krone and gold

shares to protect against the risks of high levels of inflation, currency crises and a

general lack of confidence in central banks and politicians

● Most recently, we have been adding significantly to Japanese equities as the market is

as cheap as it has been for forty years and investor disinterest is as extreme as it has

ever been

Page 40: Investec asset management

Page 40 | CONFIDENTIAL

10353

91.9

56.9

37.6

-40

-20

20

40

60

80

100

120

Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11

%

Investec Cautious Managed A Acc IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares

UK Retail Price Index FTSE All-Share

Investec Cautious Managed Fund Outperformer and portfolio diversifier

Past performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future

Source: Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, income reinvested (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial

charge) net of UK basic rate tax, in GBP. Sector rankings based on IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares

Update

Monthly

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER

OEIC\MASTER Cautious Managed (Alastair Mundy)\Evidence\Master

_UK Cautious Managed Fund.xlsx\Cautious_10

G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER

OEIC\MASTER Cautious Managed (Alastair Mundy)\Evidence\Master

_UK Cautious Managed Fund.xlsx\Ranking

Period

Sector

ranking

1 year 90/151

3 years 46/122

5 years 15/81

10 years 5/23

Page 41: Investec asset management

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10353

“A ‘one-stop shop’ for the sterling based private investor seeking capital

growth from a diversified equity centric portfolio, which pursues the best

investment opportunities within a prudent, risk-controlled framework”

Investec Managed Growth Fund

● Fund of funds (invests predominantly in open and closed end collective investment

schemes)

● Objective of long term capital appreciation / total return focus

● Benchmark: FTSE APCIMs Private investor series growth (total return)

● Thematic approach: value added from asset type, geographic, sector, style and

structure opportunities

● Access to many of the best investors in the market at reasonable cost

● Broad diversification by asset category and manager

● Low turnover

Page 42: Investec asset management

Page 42 | CONFIDENTIAL

10353

127.1

113.1

84.7

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Dec-0

2

Ap

r-03

Jul-03

Oct-

03

Jan-0

4

Ap

r-04

Aug

-04

No

v-0

4

Feb

-05

May-0

5

Aug

-05

Dec-0

5

Mar-

06

Jun-0

6

Sep

-06

Dec-0

6

Ap

r-07

Jul-07

Oct-

07

Jan-0

8

Ap

r-08

Jul-08

No

v-0

8

Feb

-09

May-0

9

Aug

-09

No

v-0

9

Mar-

10

Jun-1

0

Sep

-10

Dec-1

0

Mar-

11

Jul-11

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Ap

r-12

Jul-12

Perc

enta

ge g

row

th

115 months f rom 31/12/2002 to 31/07/2012

Investec Managed Growth A Acc Net (MF) % Growth TR UKN GBP

FTSE All-Share TR (IN) % Growth TR UKN GBP

IMA Flexible Investment (IN) % Growth TR UKN GBP

Managed Growth: Performance

The pursuit of superior investment returns Percentage Growth Total Return, Tax UK Net, In GBP

Past performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future

Source: Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, income reinvested (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial

charge) net of UK basic rate tax, in GBP

Update

Monthly

\\mercury\gdrive\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown

Graphics\¬MASTER OEIC\MASTER Managed Growth Fund (Philip

Saunders)\Evidence\Evidence_Managed

Page 43: Investec asset management

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10353

Contact details

Telephone calls may be recorded for training and quality assurance purposes.

Issued by Investec Asset Management, September 2012

Investec Asset Management

2 Gresham Street

London

EC2V 7QP

United Kingdom

www.investecassetmanagement.com

Charlie Wilson

Sales Director

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7597 2184

Email: [email protected]

Fergus McCarthy

Sales Director

Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7597

Email: [email protected]

Page 44: Investec asset management

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10353

Important information GSY B

OEIC

This communication is not for general public distribution. If you are a private investor and receive it as part of a general circulation, please

contact us at +44 (0)20 7597 1900. The value of this investment, and any income generated from it, will be affected by changes in

interest rates, general market conditions and other political, social and economic developments, as well as by specific matters relating to

the assets in which it invests. The Fund’s investment objective will not necessarily be achieved and investors are not certain to make

profits; losses may be made. Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future. Performance would be lower had initial

charges been included and will vary between different share classes dependant upon their applicable charges. Returns to indiv idual

investors will vary in accordance with their personal tax status and tax domicile.

All the information contained in this communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Any opinions stated

are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. This is not a buy, sell or hold recommendation for any particular

security. The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time.

This communication is provided for general information only. It is not an invitation to make an investment nor does it consti tute an offer for

sale. The full documentation that should be considered before making an investment, including the Prospectus and Key Investor

Information Documents or Offering Memorandum, which set out the fund specific risks, is available from Investec Asset Management.

This communication should not be distributed to private customers who are resident in countries where the Fund is not registered for sale

or in any other circumstances where its distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. Please visit

www.investecassetmanagement.com/registrations to check registrations by country. For Funds registered in Switzerland, the Prospectus,

Key Investor Information Documents and Report & Accounts may be obtained free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying

Agent, RBC Dexia Investor Services Bank S.A., Esch-sur-Alzette, Badenerstrasse 567, P.O. Box 101, CH-8066 Zurich.

In the USA, this communication should only be read by institutional investors, professional financial advisers and, at their exclusive

discretion, their eligible clients, but must not be distributed to US Persons.

THIS INVESTMENT IS NOT FOR SALE TO US PERSONS.

Telephone calls may be recorded for training and quality assurance purposes. Issued by Investec Asset Management Limited, which is

authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, September 2012.