Every cycle is different Are investors paying too high a price for risk aversion New Model Adviser Retreat – 13-14 September 2012 Max King, portfolio manager and strategist
Every cycle is different Are investors paying too high a price for risk aversion
New Model Adviser Retreat – 13-14 September 2012
Max King, portfolio manager and strategist
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A typical range of UK model portfolios
● Rising risk levels result in asset allocation shifting from cash through bonds to UK
equities, then emerging markets
Source: Investec Asset Management
Risk
Level UK Cash
UK
Corporate
Bonds
UK Index
Linked
Bonds
International
Bonds UK Gilts UK Equity
International
Equity UK Property
1 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 44% 5% 0% 5% 27% 5% 4% 10%
3 5% 20% 0% 15% 25% 10% 5% 20%
4 5% 33% 0% 0% 0% 27% 16% 19%
5 5% 22% 0% 0% 0% 29% 31% 13%
6 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 43% 33% 8%
7 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 50% 40% 2%
8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 43% 0%
9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 70% 0%
10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 95% 0%
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The methodology
Expected returns, volatilities and correlations were derived from the data series history for
each asset class
but
“People are habitually guided by the rear-view mirror and, for the most part, by the vistas
immediately behind them.”
Warren Buffett
If “past performance is of little or no value in itself as an indicator of future
performance” (FSA 2001 report) how can it be an appropriate way to study risk?
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What is risk?
● Risk is “the risk of a permanent loss of capital” – Benjamin Graham
● This can be split into three sets of risk: valuation risk, business/earnings risk and
balance sheet/financing risk – James Montier
● Risk is generally highest when it appears lowest and lowest when it appears highest
● Risk is not constant: it varies over the cycle and in a pattern influenced by human nature
and unpredictable events
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The perfect investment?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
19
90
19
91
19
91
19
92
19
92
19
93
19
93
19
94
19
94
19
95
19
95
19
96
19
96
19
97
19
97
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
US
D
Time
Value of $100, invested in 1990
Fairf ield Sentry S&P 500
Risk free returns?
Source: Bloomberg
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Meet the manager
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Do bonds always diversify equity risk?
● In the 1960s and the current decade, yes but in between, only in the short term
● For significant periods of time, government bonds reduced the performance of multi-
asset funds without significantly reducing risk
Rolling 10 year correlation; 12 m % change in S&P 500 & Bond yields
Source: Absolute Strategy Research
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Does equity diversification reduce risk?
● In the 2000-2003 bear market, yes. Avoiding TMT and high growth stocks for lowly-
valued “old-economy” stocks enabled investors to avoid the bear market
MSCI World index sector returns
Source: Investec Asset Management
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Does equity diversification reduce risk?
● But in 2008-2009, it didn’t work
MSCI World index sector returns
Source: Investec Asset Management
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The right base currency can help…
● …but only sometimes. Sterling based investors were insulated in 2008-2009 but not in
2000-2003
1/5/12
J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
MSCI AC WORLD U$ - TOT RETURN IND
MSCI AC WORLD £ - TOT RETURN IND
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
MSCI AC World index returns in $ and £: 2000-2003 and 2008-2009 1/5/12
2000 2001 2002 2003
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
MSCI WORLD U$ - TOT RETURN IND
MSCI WORLD £ - TOT RETURN IND
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Source: DataStream
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The rear view mirror: UK gilts
3.5% War loan rose from £20 in late 1974 to £98 at the end of 2011, resulting in a
compound nominal return of 22% per annum…
● ...but it was issued at par, and the coupon was cut from 5% in 1932, when trading well
above par! In real terms, the capital loss was about 96% between 1932 and late 1974
W AR LOAN 3 1/2% IRR. RUMP - MARKET PRICE
FROM 01/01/74 TO 16/02/12 MONTHLY
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Source: DataStream
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The rear view mirror: US equities
S&P 10 year compound total return
Source: Legg Mason, 2010
● …but bad decades have led to good decades. “Following the 13 prior periods since
1871 in which 10 year real stock returns turned negative, stocks averaged a real return
of more than 10% per year over the next 10 years”
The 10 year rolling return on US equities turned negative in late 2008, discouraging even
long term investors…
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Value matters: equities
● Prospective p/e is 12.5 X consensus 2012 earnings and 11 X the 2013 consensus
● Prospective p/e at March 2009 low was over 10 with earnings forecasts falling fast
● But note that mid 2007 saw neither euphoria nor despair
W ORLD-DS Market - PER
FROM 1/1/85 TO 4/4/12 MONTHLY
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Source: DataStream
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Value matters: bonds
● How can government bonds at historical lows and with negative real yields be an
attractive investment proposition?
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Real*
10 y
r govern
ment
bond y
ield
s
(%)
Germany US UK
Source: Newton
Bonds promoted as offering risk free returns are now poised to deliver return-free risk
Page 15 | CONFIDENTIAL
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1945
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Volatility is just a coincident indicator of bear markets
● Risk aversion based solely on volatility would lead to investors avoiding equities at
market lows
● Volatility is the inevitable counterpart to excess returns
12 month rolling S&P volatility
Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg
Bear markets
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0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
What happened next?
● January 2000 – December 2009 compound return of 5.7% with annualised volatility
of 6.9%
Rolling 18 month volatility Total return
Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg
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0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
What happened next – 10 year Greek bonds
● January 2010 – December 2011 compound return of -41% with annualised volatility
of 28.7%
Rolling 18 month volatility Total return
Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg
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What happens next? – 10 year US Treasuries
● January 2000 – April 2012 compound return of 9% with rolling 12 month volatility of 13.8%
● “past performance is of little or no value in itself as an indicator of future performance”
Source: Investec Asset Management, Bloomberg
100
150
200
250
300
0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
12 Month Rolling Volatility
Total Return
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Buy high, sell low
● Pension funds, supposedly long term investors, have reduced equity holdings in favour
of bonds as equities have become cheaper and bonds more expensive
● Bond weightings have risen from 19% in 2000 (when equities were 72%) to 43%
UK pension fund equity holdings as % of total
Source: Oriel Securities
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The trend is
holding – I’ll buy
at the next
consolidation
Market is
going up –
we need to
watch this
Damn! I missed
the consolidation,
but if I wait any
longer, I won’t
profit from the
trend. BUY!
Good thing I
didn’t wait
I’ll use this correction to
increase my position
Brilliant, at this price
lets add some more
Ouch. As
soon as it
goes back
up, I’m selling
I don’t believe it, its
below 5000. It’s hit
its absolute bottom
OK, let’s wait for it to
recover – otherwise
this will have to be a
really long-term
investment I’m selling out Good thing I
sold
It’s going to
tank anyway
Told you
so
Must be
hedge funds
selling
shorts
What’s going
on?
The buyers of this
market are going
to get buried
I knew this market was
going up
DAMN! I’ll
buy again. It’s
still cheap
● Is risk assessment any different?
Investor behaviour
Source: Investec Asset Management
The psychology of investment
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The risk of risk aversion
● Few people save enough or own sufficient assets to provide for their retirement or other
long-term spending requirements
− Investment returns are usually essential to bridge the gap
● Is regret more painful than risk?
− This can lead to capitulation to the bull case at precisely the wrong time
● “Low risk” strategies often don’t work
− How did hedge funds perform in 2008? In many cases, badly
− Are government bonds really low risk?
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Conclusions
● The characteristics of each cycle are different and subject to changing dynamics
● Portfolio construction strategies based on past experience are an exercise in preparing
to re-fight the battles of the last war: they don’t work
● Volatility should not be the sole basis for assessing risk
● Tools for short term traders have limited relevance for long term investors
● Investors are in severe danger of becoming locked into strategies which condemn them,
at best, to mediocre return
● “Avoidance of risk” will be a poor excuse for disappointed investors
● The key to investment strategies which deliver attractive low risk returns is to be flexible,
forward thinking and proactive. This has at least a chance of success whereas hindsight
trading doesn’t
Our solution for UK investors?
Investec Managed Solutions
Page 23 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Managed Solutions from Investec
Growth & Protection
● An actively managed multi-
asset fund with additional
downside protection
● Aims to protect at 80% of
the highest ever share
price*
Growth & Income
● Aims for growth & income
● Blends equities with
complementary assets
● Managed by renowned
contrarian, Alastair Mundy
Real Returns
● Aims to provide investors
with a real return of CPI
+5%pa** over the long-term
● Multi-asset portfolio aiming
to limit drawdown and
volatility
Growth
● Aims to provide capital
growth from a diversified
equity centric portfolio
● Multi-asset and
unconstrained
● Dynamic asset allocation
Source: Investec Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only based on the risk profiles of the Funds
Dynamic Planner is a registered trademark of Distribution Technology
Ratings as at 31 May 2012. *Protection is not guaranteed. **This is an aim and is not guaranteed
Pote
ntial re
turn
Potential Risk
Attractive Income
● Aims to provide an
attractive, sustainable yield
● Seeks the most attractive
yield opportunities across a
global multi-asset portfolio
Multi-Asset Protector Fund Cautious Managed Fund Diversified Growth Fund Managed Growth Fund Diversified Income Fund
Page 24 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Our approach to multi-asset investment (1)
● Good stock selection, as much as asset allocation, has been the key to equity
performance in the UK since 2000
Invest in funds with alpha!
Source: DataStream
9/2/12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEXROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP.BT GROUPNEXT
BG GROUPBRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCOBP
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Page 25 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Our approach to multi-asset investment (2)
Invest in thematic opportunities! 09/02/12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX
MSCI EM U$ - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
9/2/12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX
HSBC WORLD INCL. US SMALLER COS. $ - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
9/2/12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX
MSCI ACWI CONS STAPLES $ - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
9/2/12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX
MSCI ACWI IT $ - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
14/2/12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX
MSCI ACWI ENERGY $ - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
9/2/12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
MSCI AC WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX
HSBC GLOBAL GOLD $ - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Emerging markets: more upside? Consumer staples: more upside? Technology: more upside?
Smaller companies: more upside? Gold mining: Struggling badly Energy: run out of steam?
Source: DataStream, 09 February 2012
Page 26 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Our approach to multi-asset investment (3)
Other key objectives
● Timely tactical asset allocation
● Search for new opportunities and exercise vigilance for fading ones
● Evolution of strategic asset allocation as the market cycle advances
● Real diversification within as well as between Growth, Defensive & Uncorrelated
categories
● Control costs
Page 27 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Asset Management – RDR ready
● A comprehensive range of Managed Solutions
− Market leading and innovative funds
− Managed by highly experienced fund managers
− Risk profiled and highly regarded
● RDR friendly, clean share classes
Thank you www.investecassetmanagement.com
Appendix
Page 30 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investment team
Philip Saunders – Head of Strategy
MA History (Cambridge) 1980
● 31 years investment experience
● Originally a currency and fixed income
specialist
● Founder director of Guinness Flight Global
Asset Management (acquired by Investec
in 1998)
● Led Guinness Flight’s award winning currency
and fixed income team from 1987 to 1995
● Established and led Investec’s multi manager
activity 1999
● Head of Strategy 2004
Max King – Investment Manager
MA Economics (Cambridge) 1978, ACA
● 28 years investment experience
● Qualified chartered accountant
● LF Rothschild proprietary equity trading team
● 1987 to 1997 director / senior investment
manager Finsbury Asset Management
● JO Hambro director and UK investment
manager 1997 – 2003
● Joined Investec in 2004
Page 31 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Diversified Growth Fund (DGF)
Objective
● The Fund aims to provide investors with Real Returns of UK CPI +5%*
A modern approach to multi-asset investing
● Dynamic and flexible asset allocation across a diverse range of asset classes, including
active, passive and alternatives
● Asset classes are grouped into Growth, Defensive and Uncorrelated baskets with similar
returns characteristics
● The process seeks to limit volatility and client losses
● Unlike MAP, no protection. More active asset allocation than Cautious Managed with a
higher allocation to risk assets in growth environments, but not full risk-on, as is
Managed Growth
Managed by Investment Specialists
● Managed by IAM’s Multi-Asset Investment Team,
● Leverages Investec’s specialist in-house investment capabilities
*Over a 3 to 5 year rolling time period, gross of fees. This is an aim and is not guaranteed
Page 32 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Diversified Growth: a modern approach to portfolio construction
An integrated approach
Overall asset allocation and currency overlay
• Public and private
equities
• High yield
• Property
• Emerging markets debt
• Commodities
Growth Defensive Uncorrelated
20 - 70% 20 - 75% 5 - 30%
Risk overlay (Hedging, Tactical management)
• Government bonds
• Index linked bonds
• Investment Grade debt
• Gold
• Currencies
• Infrastructure
• Relative value
• Multi-strategy
• Trend followers
• Global Macro
These internal parameters are subject to change without notification necessarily to investors
Page 33 | CONFIDENTIAL
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NAV RISK
Uncorrelated
Growth
Defensive
Current portfolio positioning Diversified Growth as at 31 July 2012
% portfolio exposure
The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time
Source: Investec Asset Management, Data as at 31 July 2012
Update
Monthly
G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER
OEIC\MASTER Diversif ied Growth\Evidence\Diversif i
ed Growth evidence.xlsx\AA Pie
G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER
OEIC\MASTER Diversif ied Growth\Evidence\Diversif i
ed Growth evidence.xlsx\Asset
% of NAV % of Risk
21.5 0.0
20.3 22.1
11.3 8.1
Gold 1.9 4.2
3.9 5.2
3.2 4.5
47.7 70.4
9.5 17.4
11.2 11.5
17.2 29.1
0.9 1.9
1.0 2.4
2.7 4.3
1.4 1.9
5.0 8.1
6.2 10.6
1.8 4.5
3.1 5.5
4.9 2.4
10.5 7.6
5.1 3.5
4.1 2.0
0.3 0.5
1.0 1.6
100.0 100.0
Absolute Return Fixed Income
Cash
Defensive
Investment Grade
Volatility
High Yield
Growth
Global Equities (full beta)
Global Equities (defensive)
Thematic Equity
Technology
Emerging Markets
Japan
Healthcare
Private Equity
Small Cap
Property
Commodities
Uncorrelated
Diversif ied Hedge Beta
Infrastructure
Timber
Catastrophe Reinsurance
Page 34 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Diversified Growth Fund Comparative index performance track record
Past Performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future
Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, net of UK basic rate tax (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial charge), in GBP
* Since inception: 28 December 2006
** Comparative index = 45% MSCI AC World NR USD, 35% BofA ML UK Gilts 1-10 Year and 20% FTSE All-Share
Annual performance in GBP Cumulative performance in GBP
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Dec 06 Oct 07 Jul 08 May 09 Mar 10 Dec 10 Oct 11 Jul 12
Investec Diversified Growth A Inc Net
Comparative index**
17.7
26.3
0.1%
4.1%
-21.8%
20.0%
12.3%
-5.6%
4.9%
0.0%3.2%
-25.1%
28.5%
18.4%
-5.6%
5.9%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
2006 (Dec) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (YTD)
Investec Diversified Growth A Inc Net
Comparative index**
1 month 3 months YTD 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a.
Since inception
p.a.*
Comparative index** 2.3% 0.1% 4.9% -0.7% 7.9% 1.2% 1.5%
Investec Diversified Growth A Inc Net 2.4% -0.3% 5.9% -1.0% 11.2% 3.1% 3.0%
Relative performance 0.1% -0.4% 1.0% -0.3% 3.2% 1.9% 1.4%
Page 35 | CONFIDENTIAL
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“An opportunity for investors to access the market through a multi-asset
portfolio aiming to provide unlimited upside with the comfort of downside
protection.” Four elements of protection:
Investec Multi-Asset Protector Fund
* The Fund aims to provide downside protection at 80% of the Fund’s highest ever price.
1. Multi-asset universe allows for greater diversification and potential enhanced returns for
the same or less risk as an equity-only portfolio
2. Active management aims to guard against market downturns and enhance the benefit
of market upturns
3. Dynamic allocation through a pre-defined model to the cash portfolio, seeks to ensure
the Fund is less exposed to investment markets when markets are falling
4. Downside protection mechanism. The Fund will invest in a derivative contract, with a
single counterparty*. The Fund aims, through this contract, to provide protection against
the risk of a decline in the share price below 80% of the highest price ever achieved;
however, such an outcome is not guaranteed
Page 36 | CONFIDENTIAL
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-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12
Perc
enta
ge G
row
th
1246 days f rom 30 January 2009 to 31 July 2012
Investec Multi Asset Protector A Acc Net
IMA Protected
IMA Money Market
IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares
26.3
4.3
37.8
1.5
31.8
Investec Multi-Asset Protector Fund (MAP)
MAP Fund vs. Cautious Managed sector
Box information
from the website:
http://www.invest
ecassetmanage
ment.com/united-
kingdom/categor
y/2998
Use NAV price
and below it will
show the
protected price
Max investment
level comes from
Laura Reyes
Past performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future
Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, income reinvested (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial charge) net of
UK basic rate tax, in sterling
* Launch date 30 January 2009
G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER
OEIC\MASTER MAP (Philip Saunders & Max King)\Evidence\Master
MAP.xlsx\Performance_Cht
Update
Monthly
9 August 2012 MAP 2
Bid price 100.5
Protected price 80.4
Effective level
of protection 80.0
Max investment
level 99.0%
9 August 2012 MAP
Bid price 126.9
Protected price 108.9
Effective level
of protection 86.0
Max investment
level 70.0%
Page 37 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Diversified Income Fund
● Aims to provide an attractive yield through an actively managed multi-asset portfolio
● Managed by highly experienced portfolio managers John Stopford and Max King,
backed by a specialist Multi-Asset team
● Uses the breadth and depth of Investec’s global investment capabilities across the
developed and emerging world
● Actively manages downside risk
● RDR-ready share class and part of Investec’s Managed Solutions Range
Attractive income from a diversified portfolio of “global best ideas”
* The Distribution Yield reflects the amount that may be expected to be distributed over the 12 months beginning 1 October 2012, as a percentage
of the mid-market unit price of the Fund. The Underlying Yield reflects the annualised income expected to be received by the Fund. Both are based
on a snapshot of the portfolio as at 31 August 2012, are not guaranteed, will vary over time and take no account of any preliminary charge. The
Distribution Yield is higher than the Underlying Yield because the Fund’s expenses are charged to capital. This has the effec t of increasing the
Fund’s distribution (which may be taxable) whilst reducing its capital to an equivalent extent and may constrain future capital and income growth.
Distribution yield: 5.5%*
Underlying yield: 3.9%*
Page 38 | CONFIDENTIAL
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Investec Diversified Income Fund Comparative index performance track record
Past Performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future
Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, net of UK basic rate tax (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial charge), in GBP
*Since inception: 31 December 2002
** Comparative index: 33% Equities = FTSE All Share; 33% Bonds = B of A ML European Currency Non-Financial High Yield Constrained
GBP Hedged; 17% Emerging Markets Bonds = JPM GBI-EM; 17% Emerging Markets Bonds = EMBIG Global Diversified
Annual performance in GBP Cumulative performance in GBP
19.3%13.5%
17.4%
8.5%5.3%
-14.0%
34.2%
15.9%
-0.3%
9.2%
20.9%
12.8%
22.0%
16.8%
5.3%
-29.9%
30.1%
14.5%
-3.5%
4.7%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (YTD)
Comparative index**
FTSE All-Share TR
1 month 3 months YTD 1 year 3 years p.a. 5 years p.a.
Since inception
p.a.*
Comparative index** 2.1% 2.6% 9.2% 6.3% 13.1% 8.6% 10.7%
FTSE All-Share TR 1.3% -1.0% 4.7% 0.4% 11.3% 1.3% 8.4%
Relative performance 0.8% 3.6% 4.5% 6.0% 1.9% 7.3% 2.3%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
Dec 02 May 04 Sep 05 Feb 07 Jun 08 Nov 09 Mar 11 Jul 12
Comparative index**
FTSE All-Share TR
164.2
116.0
Page 39 | CONFIDENTIAL
10353
Investec Cautious Managed Fund
● Managed by IAM’s highly regarded “contrarian” team headed by Alastair Mundy
● The investment approach aims to ensure the Fund is protected against as many
different outcomes as possible
● The portfolio is built from an equity centric platform... with complementary assets added
to dampen the natural equity volatility
● The Fund is happy to use cash, international equities and international bonds as well as
UK equities
● The Fund is currently using index-linked government bonds, Norwegian krone and gold
shares to protect against the risks of high levels of inflation, currency crises and a
general lack of confidence in central banks and politicians
● Most recently, we have been adding significantly to Japanese equities as the market is
as cheap as it has been for forty years and investor disinterest is as extreme as it has
ever been
Page 40 | CONFIDENTIAL
10353
91.9
56.9
37.6
-40
-20
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11
%
Investec Cautious Managed A Acc IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares
UK Retail Price Index FTSE All-Share
Investec Cautious Managed Fund Outperformer and portfolio diversifier
Past performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future
Source: Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, income reinvested (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial
charge) net of UK basic rate tax, in GBP. Sector rankings based on IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares
Update
Monthly
G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER
OEIC\MASTER Cautious Managed (Alastair Mundy)\Evidence\Master
_UK Cautious Managed Fund.xlsx\Cautious_10
G:\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown Graphics\¬MASTER
OEIC\MASTER Cautious Managed (Alastair Mundy)\Evidence\Master
_UK Cautious Managed Fund.xlsx\Ranking
Period
Sector
ranking
1 year 90/151
3 years 46/122
5 years 15/81
10 years 5/23
Page 41 | CONFIDENTIAL
10353
“A ‘one-stop shop’ for the sterling based private investor seeking capital
growth from a diversified equity centric portfolio, which pursues the best
investment opportunities within a prudent, risk-controlled framework”
Investec Managed Growth Fund
● Fund of funds (invests predominantly in open and closed end collective investment
schemes)
● Objective of long term capital appreciation / total return focus
● Benchmark: FTSE APCIMs Private investor series growth (total return)
● Thematic approach: value added from asset type, geographic, sector, style and
structure opportunities
● Access to many of the best investors in the market at reasonable cost
● Broad diversification by asset category and manager
● Low turnover
Page 42 | CONFIDENTIAL
10353
127.1
113.1
84.7
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Dec-0
2
Ap
r-03
Jul-03
Oct-
03
Jan-0
4
Ap
r-04
Aug
-04
No
v-0
4
Feb
-05
May-0
5
Aug
-05
Dec-0
5
Mar-
06
Jun-0
6
Sep
-06
Dec-0
6
Ap
r-07
Jul-07
Oct-
07
Jan-0
8
Ap
r-08
Jul-08
No
v-0
8
Feb
-09
May-0
9
Aug
-09
No
v-0
9
Mar-
10
Jun-1
0
Sep
-10
Dec-1
0
Mar-
11
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Ap
r-12
Jul-12
Perc
enta
ge g
row
th
115 months f rom 31/12/2002 to 31/07/2012
Investec Managed Growth A Acc Net (MF) % Growth TR UKN GBP
FTSE All-Share TR (IN) % Growth TR UKN GBP
IMA Flexible Investment (IN) % Growth TR UKN GBP
Managed Growth: Performance
The pursuit of superior investment returns Percentage Growth Total Return, Tax UK Net, In GBP
Past performance figures are not audited and should not be taken as a guide to the future
Source: Lipper, dates to 31 July 2012, NAV based, income reinvested (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial
charge) net of UK basic rate tax, in GBP
Update
Monthly
\\mercury\gdrive\Depts\Marketing\Presentations\Hamilton Brown
Graphics\¬MASTER OEIC\MASTER Managed Growth Fund (Philip
Saunders)\Evidence\Evidence_Managed
Page 43 | CONFIDENTIAL
10353
Contact details
Telephone calls may be recorded for training and quality assurance purposes.
Issued by Investec Asset Management, September 2012
Investec Asset Management
2 Gresham Street
London
EC2V 7QP
United Kingdom
www.investecassetmanagement.com
Charlie Wilson
Sales Director
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7597 2184
Email: [email protected]
Fergus McCarthy
Sales Director
Tel: + 44 (0) 20 7597
Email: [email protected]
Page 44 | CONFIDENTIAL
10353
Important information GSY B
OEIC
This communication is not for general public distribution. If you are a private investor and receive it as part of a general circulation, please
contact us at +44 (0)20 7597 1900. The value of this investment, and any income generated from it, will be affected by changes in
interest rates, general market conditions and other political, social and economic developments, as well as by specific matters relating to
the assets in which it invests. The Fund’s investment objective will not necessarily be achieved and investors are not certain to make
profits; losses may be made. Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future. Performance would be lower had initial
charges been included and will vary between different share classes dependant upon their applicable charges. Returns to indiv idual
investors will vary in accordance with their personal tax status and tax domicile.
All the information contained in this communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Any opinions stated
are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. This is not a buy, sell or hold recommendation for any particular
security. The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time.
This communication is provided for general information only. It is not an invitation to make an investment nor does it consti tute an offer for
sale. The full documentation that should be considered before making an investment, including the Prospectus and Key Investor
Information Documents or Offering Memorandum, which set out the fund specific risks, is available from Investec Asset Management.
This communication should not be distributed to private customers who are resident in countries where the Fund is not registered for sale
or in any other circumstances where its distribution is not authorised or is unlawful. Please visit
www.investecassetmanagement.com/registrations to check registrations by country. For Funds registered in Switzerland, the Prospectus,
Key Investor Information Documents and Report & Accounts may be obtained free of charge from the Swiss Representative and Paying
Agent, RBC Dexia Investor Services Bank S.A., Esch-sur-Alzette, Badenerstrasse 567, P.O. Box 101, CH-8066 Zurich.
In the USA, this communication should only be read by institutional investors, professional financial advisers and, at their exclusive
discretion, their eligible clients, but must not be distributed to US Persons.
THIS INVESTMENT IS NOT FOR SALE TO US PERSONS.
Telephone calls may be recorded for training and quality assurance purposes. Issued by Investec Asset Management Limited, which is
authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, September 2012.