INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH

INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH

Hendri Saparini, Ph.D [email protected]

www.coreindonesia.org

Seminar Mahasiswa STIAMI

Bekasi, 29 Maret 2015

Potensi Investasi dan Perdagangan

Indonesia Ekonomi Penting Dunia

Pertumbuhan Stabil dan Tertinggi Ke 3 dan GDP No. 16 Dunia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

%

0 5 10 15 20

South…

United…

Argentina

Turkey

Indonesia

Korea

Mexico

Australia

India

Canada

Italy

Russia

Brazil

United…

France

Germany

Japan

China

United…

Thousand Billion

0,87

Penduduk Terbesar No. 4 Dunia dan SDA Melimpah

Berpotensi menjadi salah satu production base dunia

Ranking Product Exported Value

(bill. US$) Share Export

(%) Share in world

exports (%) Ranking in world

exports

1 Coal 24.29 12.8 19 2

2 Petroleum gases 20.52 10.8 5 5

3 Palm oil & its fraction 17.60 9.3 46 1

4 Crude petroleum oils 12.29 6.5 1 23

5 Natural rubber 7.86 4.1 22 3

6 Copper ores and concentrates

2.59 1.4 5 5

7 Coconut (copra) 2.46 1.3 45 1

8 Petroleum coke 2.38 1.3 11 2

12 Unwrought tin 2.05 1.1 34 1

13 Plywood 2.01 1.1 14 2

Total 10 94.07 49.5

MP3EI: Enam Koridor Ekonomi

Tiap Daerah memiliki potensi dan daya saing berbeda

Mega economic centers

Economic centers

Sumatera Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of Natural Resources and As Nation’s Energy Reserves”

Kalimantan Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of National Mining and Energy Reserves”

Sulawesi Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of National Agricultural, Plantation, Fishery, Oil & Gas, and Mining”

Papua – Maluku Islands Corridor: “Center for Development of Food, Fishery, Energy and National Mining”

Java Corridor: “Driver for National Industry and Service Provision”

Bali – Nusa Tenggara Corridor: “Gateway for Tourism and National Food Support”

PMA Primer dan Sekunder Akan Tumbuh Lebih Tinggi

Indonesia tujuan investasi utama

Promising Countries For Japanese

FDI (JBIC)

American business representatives:

popular location in ASEAN for

business expansion

UNCTAD: Indonesia’s ranking rose from

position 4 to 3 as a prime investment

destination 2014-2016

Investasi PMA (skala kiri)

Investasi PMDN (skala kiri)

TK PMDN (skala kanan)

TK PMA (skala kanan)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

RIB

U O

RA

NG

TRIL

IUN

RU

PIA

H

Sumber: BKPM

Investasi Langsung Tumbuh

PMA dan PMDN

Penanaman Modal Asing 2013

Industri kendaraan bermotor mendominasi

Lainnya 9%

Transportasi, Gudang &

Komunikasi 5%

Pertanian 6%

Listrik, Gas dan Air

8%

Pertambangan

17%

Industri Lainnya

15%

Ind. Kertas dan

Percetakan 7%

Industri Makanan

13% Ind. Logam, Mesin &

Elektronik 21%

Ind. Kendaraa

n Bermotor

24%

PMA Menurut Sektor Dominasi Manufaktur

Industri Manufaktur

55%

Kimia dan Farmasi

20%

Sumber: BI

Penanaman Modal Domestik, 2013 Industri makanan masih menjadi primadona

Lainnya 4% Pertanian

5%

Konstruksi 7%

Transportasi, &

Komunikasi 13%

Pertambangan

13% Listrik, Gas

dan Air 25%

Industri Lainnya

12%

Ind. Mineral

Non Logam 10%

Ind. Kertas dan

Percetakan 14%

Ind. Logam, Mesin &

Elektronik 16%

Ind. Kimia

dan Farmasi

14%

PMDN Menurut Sektor Dominasi Manufaktur

Industri Manufaktur

33% Industri

Makanan

34%

Sumber: BI

Investasi Untuk Penguatan Daya Saing

.........ketergantungan tinggi pada impor

impor raw material dan intermediate goods

Sumber: BI

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mili

ar U

S$

Consumption Raw Material and Intermediete goods Capital goods

Struktur Impor: 70% Bahan Baku dan Penolong

Ketergantungan harus diselesaikan dengan membangun supporting industri

textiles

rubber and plastics products

fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment

other transport equipment

computer, electronic and optical products

basic metals

electrical equipment

wearing apparel

leather and related products

chemicals and chemical products

machinery and equipment n.e.c.

repair and installation of machinery and equipment

pharmaceutical products

%

Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Tidak Mudah Diselesaikan

Defisit neraca minyak, pendapatan dan jasa, akibat permasalahan

struktural

Barang , 1,641

Nonmigas, 4,637

Minyak, -6,497

Gas, 3,501

Jasa - jasa, -2,313

Pendapatan, -5,694

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Mill

ion

s o

f U

SD

Sumber : BI

ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY

ASEAN COMMUNITY

ASEAN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL

COMMUNITY

ASEAN POLITICAL AND SECURITY

COMMUNITY

Single Market and

Production Base

Competitive

Economic Region

Equitable Economic

Development

Integration into the

Global Economy

Free Flow of Goods

Free Flow of Services Initiative for ASEAN

Integration

Competition Policy Coherent approach

towards external

economic relations

Enhanced

participation in global

supply networks

SME Development

Freer Flow of Capital

Free Flow of

Skilled Labour

Consumer Protection

Priority Integration

Sectors

Food, Agriculture,

Forestry

Intellectual Property

Rights

Infrastructure

Development

Taxation

e-Commerce

Free Flow of Investment

Neraca Perdagangan Intra-ASEAN: kinerja Indonesia relatif paling buruk, defisit makin melebar

perlu strategi yang tidak memperlebar defisit perdagangan & neraca transaksi berjalan

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Milyar US$

Singapura

Thailand

Malaysia

Vietnam

Filipina

INDONESIA

Non-Migas

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US$ Milyar

Thailand

Singapura

Filipina

Vietnam

Malaysia

Indonesia

Perdagangan Jasa ASEAN defisit Indonesia terbesar dan persisten dibutuhkan strategi dan kebijakan untuk menutup defisit jasa yg lebar

Indonesia hanya tinggal mengandalkan strategi Non-Tariff Barriers

kerjasama ekonomi yang agresif, mengakibatkan

penurunan Import Tariff yang tanpa strategi

India (2013)

Brazil (2011)

China (2011)

Russia (2013)

Indonesia (2011)

All products 13.9 12.2 12.0 10.1 4.8

Agricultural 43.3 11.2 22.6 23.4 13.6

Industrial 11.8 12.3 11.2 9.2 4.2

Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China

pasca CAFTA, defisit semakin membengkak

Export

Import

Trade Balance

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mili

ar U

S$

Sumber: International Trade Center

Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang pasca JIEPA, non migas terus mengalami defisit

Export

Import

Trade Balance

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mili

ar U

S$

Value of Export & Import

Oil & gas

Non-oil and gas

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mili

ar U

S$

Trade Balance

Sumber: International Trade Center

Investasi Untuk Penyelesaian

Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran

Kinerja Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

Tidak menyelesaikan kesenjangan, kemiskinan dan pengangguran

Aceh Bengkulu

DKI Jakarta

Jawa Barat

Banten

Bali

Nusa Tenggara Barat

Nusa Tenggara Timur

Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Sulawesi Utara

Gorontalo

Sulawesi Barat

Maluku

Papua Barat

Papua

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Po

vert

y (%

)

Open Unemployment Rate (%)

HIGH POVERTY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT

Sumber: BPS, @CORE

HIGH POVERTY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT

LOW POVERTY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT

LOW POVERTY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT

Kesenjangan Melebar Kelas menengah baru pesat, kemiskinan masih sangat tinggi

45

81

93

134

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 2003 2009 2010

Mill

ion

s

(25% popul

(56

Sumber:ADB, Bank Dunia

0

10

20

30

40

DKI J

aka

rta

Bali

Kalse

l

Bab

el

Kalteng

Ban

ten

Kaltim

Kep

ri

Jam

bi

Riau

Kalba

r

Sulut

Malut

Sum

bar

Jabar

Sum

ut

Sulse

l

Sulba

r

Jatim

Sum

sel

Jateng

DIY

Sultra

Sulteng

Ben

gku

lu

Lam

pun

g

NAD

NTB

NTT

Gorontalo

Maluku

Pap

ua Barat

Pap

ua

Provinsi

Pe

rse

n

Terimakasih

Mendorong investasi bukan sekadar

mendulang Pendapatan Asli Daerah.

Perlu pertimbangan penguatan daya saing dan

penyelesaian masalah struktural