Inverse modeling of North American CO Inverse modeling of North American CO sources sources during the summer 2004 (ICARTT) during the summer 2004 (ICARTT) S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, R. C. Hudman, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, R. C. Hudman, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, F. Y. Leung, R. M. Yantosca, C. L. Heald, L. K. Emmons, D. P. F. Y. Leung, R. M. Yantosca, C. L. Heald, L. K. Emmons, D. P. Edwards, Edwards, and the INTEX Science Team and the INTEX Science Team 1. Anthropogenic emissions: • EPA emission inventories and trends: Uncertainty on the CO emissions estimated to ~ 40% by comparison with in situ observations [Parrish, in preparation] • Global inverse modeling analyses : North American FF/BF emissions of CO vary by up to ~ 70% • ICARTT observations: model seem to strongly overestimate CO in the PBL 2. Biomass burning emissions during the summer 2004 : • 2004: worst fire season in Alaska on record! • Burning in boreal forests of Canada or Siberia can have a large impact on CO on an hemispheric scale, and on air quality in the US in particular Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005 (R. Hudman)
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Inverse modeling of North American CO sources Inverse modeling of North American CO sources during the summer 2004 (ICARTT)during the summer 2004 (ICARTT)
S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, R. C. Hudman, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, F. Y. Leung, R. M. S. Turquety, D. J. Jacob, R. C. Hudman, J. A. Logan, R. M. Yevich, F. Y. Leung, R. M. Yantosca, C. L. Heald, L. K. Emmons, D. P. Edwards, Yantosca, C. L. Heald, L. K. Emmons, D. P. Edwards,
and the INTEX Science Teamand the INTEX Science Team
1. Anthropogenic emissions: • EPA emission inventories and trends: Uncertainty on the CO emissions estimated to ~ 40% by comparison with in situ observations [Parrish, in preparation]• Global inverse modeling analyses : North American FF/BF emissions of CO vary by up to ~ 70% • ICARTT observations: model seem to strongly overestimate CO in the PBL
2. Biomass burning emissions during the summer 2004 : • 2004: worst fire season in Alaska on record!• Burning in boreal forests of Canada or Siberia can have a large impact on CO on
an hemispheric scale, and on air quality in the US in particular • Burning in boreal regions expected to significantly increase as a result of climate
change
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
(R. Hudman)
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Alaska:
• > 2.6 million hectares burned
• > 8 x 10-year average
Canada:
• 15 x average area burned in Yukon Territory (60% of national total)
• 6 x average in British Columbia
US National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC)
Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center (CIFFC)
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
Biomass burning 2004: Strong signature during ICARTTBiomass burning 2004: Strong signature during ICARTT
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Daily reports of the area burned from the NIFC
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
Emissions CO 2004Emissions / unit area
A x 60%
[W.M. Hao, FSL, Personal comm.]
Derive emissions for 10 species, with 1x1 horizontal resolution: NOx, CO, lumped >= C4 alkanes, lumped >= C3 alkenes, acetone, methyl ethyl ketone, acetaldehyde, propane, formaldehyde, and ethane.
MODIS hotspots
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
Total emissions North America June 1st – August 31st = 10.3 Tg CO
Alaska : 5.7 Tg CO 3 x climatology Logan and Yevich
Canada: 4.5 Tg CO 0.9 x climatology ; Yukon territory: 2.3 Tg CO 4.4 x clim.
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Alaska
Canada
Day since June 1st, 2004
2004
Logan and Yevich
To
tal
emis
sio
ns
CO
(T
g)
Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America Bottom-up inventory of the biomass burning emissions in North America during the summer 2004during the summer 2004
(MOPITT – Model)/MOPITT
MOPITT Total CO – summer 2004 GEOS-CHEM Total CO x MOPITT AK
On average: Underestimate emissions by ~ 25% on average
Area burned? Uncertainty reports…
Emissions / unit area (fuel loads) ?
Injection heights?
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Use TOMS AI as an indicator of the altitude of the aerosol layer:
Sensitivity as altitude of the aerosol layer (low sensitivity to the PBL)
Importance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon firesImportance of injection heights for the 2004 Alaskan-Yukon fires
Solène Turquety – GEOS-CHEM Meeting April 5, 2005
Pyro-convective cloud from aircraft – June 27, 2004http://www.cpi.com/remsensing/midatm/smoke.html