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INDUSTRY FORESIGHTINDUSTRY FORESIGHTUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYSCENARIOSSCENARIOS
UNDERSTANDINGTHE ENVIRONMENT
SCENARIOSSCENARIOSUNDERSTANDING
THE ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
(After Johnson : 1988)
STRATEGY AND PARADIGMSSTRATEGY AND PARADIGMS
STRENGTHSSTRENGTHSand and
WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES
STRENGTHSSTRENGTHSand and
WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESand and
THREATSTHREATS
OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESand and
THREATSTHREATS
Organisational LearningOrganisational Learning
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIPSTRATEGIC LEADERSHIPAs a way of Business LifeAs a way of Business Life
Organisational LearningOrganisational Learning
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIPSTRATEGIC LEADERSHIPAs a way of Business LifeAs a way of Business Life
INDUSTRY FORESIGHTINDUSTRY FORESIGHTUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYSCENARIOSSCENARIOS
UNDERSTANDINGTHE ENVIRONMENT
SCENARIOSSCENARIOSUNDERSTANDING
THE ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
(After Johnson : 1988)
STRATEGY AND PARADIGMSSTRATEGY AND PARADIGMSIf you want to understand the World, commonly held ideas are absolutely blinding.
STRENGTHSSTRENGTHSand and
WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES
STRENGTHSSTRENGTHSand and
WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESand and
THREATSTHREATS
OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESand and
THREATSTHREATS
Organisational LearningOrganisational Learning
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIPSTRATEGIC LEADERSHIPAs a way of Business LifeAs a way of Business Life
Organisational LearningOrganisational Learning
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIPSTRATEGIC LEADERSHIPAs a way of Business LifeAs a way of Business Life
INDUSTRY FORESIGHTINDUSTRY FORESIGHTUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYSCENARIOSSCENARIOS
UNDERSTANDINGTHE ENVIRONMENT
SCENARIOSSCENARIOSUNDERSTANDING
THE ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
(After Johnson : 1988)
STRATEGY AND PARADIGMSSTRATEGY AND PARADIGMS
The only way to spot threats and opportunities is to break out of a narrow way of thinking.
STRENGTHSSTRENGTHSand and
WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES
STRENGTHSSTRENGTHSand and
WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESand and
THREATSTHREATS
OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIESand and
THREATSTHREATS
Organisational LearningOrganisational Learning
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIPSTRATEGIC LEADERSHIPAs a way of Business LifeAs a way of Business Life
Organisational LearningOrganisational Learning
STRATEGIC LEADERSHIPSTRATEGIC LEADERSHIPAs a way of Business LifeAs a way of Business Life
INDUSTRY FORESIGHTINDUSTRY FORESIGHTUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYUNDERSTANDING THE INDUSTRYSCENARIOSSCENARIOS
UNDERSTANDINGTHE ENVIRONMENT
SCENARIOSSCENARIOSUNDERSTANDING
THE ENVIRONMENT
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
BUSINESS IDEABUSINESS IDEAUNDERSTANDINGTHE INSTITUTION
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
THE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELTHE PARADIGM OR MENTAL MODELBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an OrganisationBeliefs and assumptions held in common and taken for granted in an Organisation
(After Johnson : 1988)
STRATEGY AND PARADIGMSSTRATEGY AND PARADIGMS
. . . If you’re trying to reach enlightenment, you must develop, in this order, “right view, right intention, right action.”
If you’re not seeing the world properly, you have no hope of any sort of breakthrough. (Ramo: 2009: 134)
DO
ING
Content Context
Shortsight Longsight Foresight Vision ContextFar Hindsight Near Hindsight
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Data Facts, observations, data points
Information Data with meaning
Knowledge Information with insight
Wisdom Knowledge with context
(Source: Based on Dr. Kanes Rajah: 2005)
Partial knowledge
Incorrect knowledge
False knowledge
No knowledge
BE
ING
Process
STRATEGY AND PARADIGMSSTRATEGY AND PARADIGMS
DO
ING
Content Context
Shortsight Longsight Foresight Vision ContextFar Hindsight Near Hindsight
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Data Facts, observations, data points
Information Data with meaning
Knowledge Information with insight
Wisdom Knowledge with context
(Source: Based on Dr. Kanes Rajah: 2005)
Partial knowledge
Incorrect knowledge
False knowledge
No knowledge
BE
ING
Process
More than anything, what you want to know is when change is going to begin. This sense is known as mastery of incipience, and the skill is often praised as the highest form of wisdom. (Ramo: 2009: 161).
STRATEGY AND PARADIGMSSTRATEGY AND PARADIGMS
DO
ING
Content Context
Shortsight Longsight Foresight Vision ContextFar Hindsight Near Hindsight
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Data Facts, observations, data points
Information Data with meaning
Knowledge Information with insight
Wisdom Knowledge with context
(Source: Based on Dr. Kanes Rajah: 2005)
Partial knowledge
Incorrect knowledge
False knowledge
No knowledge
BE
ING
Process
. . . truth emerges through debate, study, reflection, meditation, and, at long last, insight delivered like lightning. (paraphrase of Ramo, 2009: 212).
STRATEGY AND PARADIGMSSTRATEGY AND PARADIGMS
DO
ING
Content Context
Shortsight Longsight Foresight Vision ContextFar Hindsight Near Hindsight
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Blind spotsBlind spots
Bright sparksBright sparks
Data Facts, observations, data points
Information Data with meaning
Knowledge Information with insight
Wisdom Knowledge with context
(Source: Based on Dr. Kanes Rajah: 2005)
Partial knowledge
Incorrect knowledge
False knowledge
No knowledge
BE
ING
Process
. . . The environment is far more powerful than any individual. It is never stable and in its sudden changes from one state to another, more important than the desires of any of us . . . Context is everything . . . (Ramo: 2009: 160).
THE RELATIONSHIP OF VISION, STRATEGIES,THE RELATIONSHIP OF VISION, STRATEGIES,PLANS AND BUDGETS : A TRADITIONAL VIEWPLANS AND BUDGETS : A TRADITIONAL VIEWTHE RELATIONSHIP OF VISION, STRATEGIES,THE RELATIONSHIP OF VISION, STRATEGIES,PLANS AND BUDGETS : A TRADITIONAL VIEWPLANS AND BUDGETS : A TRADITIONAL VIEW
Specific action steps and Specific action steps and timetables to implement timetables to implement the strategiesthe strategies
Plans converted into Plans converted into financial projections and financial projections and goalsgoals
A sensible and A sensible and appealing picture of appealing picture of the futurethe future
A logic, and first level A logic, and first level of detail, for how the of detail, for how the vision can be vision can be achievedachieved
• RESTRUCTURINGRESTRUCTURING• B P RE-ENGINEERINGB P RE-ENGINEERING• COST CUTTINGCOST CUTTING• BENCHMARKINGBENCHMARKING• TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENTTOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT
• INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL FOCUSINTELLECTUAL CAPITAL FOCUS• REGENERATING STRATEGYREGENERATING STRATEGY• REINVENTING THE LEADERSHIPREINVENTING THE LEADERSHIP• REINVENTING THE ORGANISATIONREINVENTING THE ORGANISATION• REINVENTING THE INDUSTRYREINVENTING THE INDUSTRY
AS : * Competition hots up
* Growth slows, stagnates* Margins decline
* Market share falls* Substitution occurs
(Based on Hamel and Prahalad : 1994)(Based on Hamel and Prahalad : 1994)
• RESTRUCTURINGRESTRUCTURING• B P RE-ENGINEERINGB P RE-ENGINEERING• COST CUTTINGCOST CUTTING• BENCHMARKINGBENCHMARKING• TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENTTOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT
• INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL FOCUSINTELLECTUAL CAPITAL FOCUS• REGENERATING STRATEGYREGENERATING STRATEGY• REINVENTING THE LEADERSHIPREINVENTING THE LEADERSHIP• REINVENTING THE ORGANISATIONREINVENTING THE ORGANISATION• REINVENTING THE INDUSTRYREINVENTING THE INDUSTRY
AS : * Competition hots up
* Growth slows, stagnates* Margins decline
* Market share falls* Substitution occurs
(Based on Hamel and Prahalad : 1994)(Based on Hamel and Prahalad : 1994)
It is not enough for a company to get It is not enough for a company to get SMALLER and BETTER and FASTER. SMALLER and BETTER and FASTER. A company must also be capable of A company must also be capable of
fundamentally RECONCEIVING itself, fundamentally RECONCEIVING itself, of REGENERATING core strategies, and of REGENERATING core strategies, and
of REINVENTING ITS INDUSTRYof REINVENTING ITS INDUSTRY
Way of being. Inventing an Way of being. Inventing an impossible game. impossible game. Reinventing, transforming Reinventing, transforming the organisation, the industrythe organisation, the industry