Introduction to SUSPLAN Introduction to SUSPLAN Bjørn H. Bakken, PhD Bjørn H. Bakken, PhD SINTEF Energy Research SINTEF Energy Research [email protected][email protected]10th IAEE European Conference 10th IAEE European Conference Vienna Vienna, 8 September 2009
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Introduction to SUSPLANIntroduction to SUSPLAN
Bjørn H. Bakken, PhDBjørn H. Bakken, PhDSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research
OBJECTIVE:To develop a comprehensive set of robust guidelines forinfrastructure and network decision makers and power distributorsregionally and across Europe.
The guidelines will be established on the basis of extensive regionaland trans-national scenario studies.
They will consist of strategies, recommendations, criteria andbenchmarks for more efficient integration of renewable energysources (RES) into future infrastructures in the time perspective of2030-2050
Duration: 36 months (September 2008 – August 2011)
Fast tech developmentMajor break-throughsseveral technologies,RES, grids, demand
side
Slow tech developmentNo major technology
break-throughs; gradualdevelopment of
current technologies
Positive public attitudeHigh environmental focus in population and business.
Reduced energy consumption and demand for environmentally friendly products
Indifferent public attitudeLow environmental focus in population and business.
Higher energy consumption and no demand for environmentally friendly products or services
GreenGreenYellowYellow
BlueBlueRedRed
2009-09-089
IAEE European Conference, Vienna
SUSPLAN Storylines
Scenario setup 2030-2050Scenario setup 2030-2050
Based on existing studies
‘Today’
2010 2020 20402030 2050
Shar
e of
RES
Time (Year)
Min. RES levels
Scenario analysesRegional / Trans-national
Assume that2020 goals
are reachedbefore 2030
Electricity market model of EuropeElectricity market model of Europe A fully integrated Europeanelectricity market will be used as a
common reference between theSUSPLAN regions
Stochastic market model includingwind and hydro data
Includes non-RES technologies likenuclear and CCS in the market
balance
Includes also the regions andcountries NOT directly analyzed in
SUSPLAN
Similar approach for gasinfrastructures?
A modeling approach for moreA modeling approach for moreefficient integration of renewableefficient integration of renewableenergy into future infrastructuresenergy into future infrastructures
Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesBjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research
Long time perspective 2030-2050 There is a strong political will in Europe to promote
sustainable development and security of supply The share of RES in the European system will be large. We
shall analyse the need for infrastructures to integrate theRES
RES-E, RES-Heat and RES-Gas are considered SUSPLAN covers the stationary part of the system, not the
transport sector. However, electric vehicles and biofuelsmight influence the energy balance
Two main factors for calculating the share of RES are energydemand and volume of RES
2009-09-08 13IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Electricity market model of EuropeElectricity market model of Europe A fully integrated European
electricity market will be used as acommon reference between theSUSPLAN regions
Stochastic market model includingwind and hydro data
Includes non-RES technologieslike nuclear and CCS in the marketbalance
Includes also the regions andcountries NOT directly analyzed inSUSPLAN
Similar approach for gasinfrastructures?
2009-09-08 15IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Electricity market model (EMPS)Electricity market model (EMPS)
Electricity flowElectricity flowAverage exchange from Norway to Sweden (2030)Average exchange from Norway to Sweden (2030)
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
1 1461 2921 4381 5841 7301
MWh/h
Hours
2009-09-08 19IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
GreenNet: New wind projectsGreenNet: New wind projects(Norway)(Norway)
2009-09-08 22IAEE European Conference, Vienna
GreenNet: New capacity costGreenNet: New capacity cost(Wind, Norway)(Wind, Norway)
2009-09-08 23IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
2009-09-08 24IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Heat central
Boiler
DH Network
El load
El network
El source
Gas network
Gas source
Heat load
Tap water load
Heat source
Gas load
Aggregated area model in Aggregated area model in eTransporteTransportAggregated area loadsAggregated sources
Ref: www.sintef.no/etransport
2009-09-08 25IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El loadEl network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed-in
Simple area model in Simple area model in eTransporteTransport
Ref: www.sintef.no/etransport
2009-09-08 26IAEE European Conference, Vienna
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hours
MWh/h
El load 2010
Heat load 2010
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Hours
EUR/MWh
Elspot price 2010
Utility buyback price
Input: Load and price profilesInput: Load and price profiles
2009-09-08 27IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Rank and timing of investment alternativesRank and timing of investment alternatives
• Investment cost - resource, plant, storage and network
• Operational cost - fuel, fixed cost etc
• Environmental cost - emission penalties
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
1000
EU
RO CHP 2, El boiler (2010)
CHP 1 (2010)CHP 3, El boiler (2010)El boiler (2010)
Delayed commissioning of waste plantDelayed commissioning of waste plant
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2010_to_2015 2015_to_2020 2020_to_2025
1000
EU
RO CHP 1
CHP 2, El boilerCHP 3, El boilerEl boiler
Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El load
El network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed -in
Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El load
El network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed -in
Gas 1
Waste 2
Waste 3
CHP 1
CHP 2
CHP 3
Elspot
El market
Boiler
El load
El network
Heat network
Heat load
Storage 3
Storage 2
Heat feed -in
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
1000
EU
RO CHP 1
CHP 2, El boilerCHP 3, El boilerEl boiler
2009-09-08 30IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures• Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common
electricity market from Step 1• Correlation also with trans-national gas model
2009-09-08 31IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Connections between regional andConnections between regional andtrans-national scenario studiestrans-national scenario studies
• RES penetration + RES/energy mix per region• (RES) export/import (firm/intermittent) per region• Infrastructure needs + costs per region• Prices per region
Trans-national scenario analysis:
Min. 4 Transnational scenarios
2009-09-08 32IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Connections between regional andConnections between regional andtrans-national scenario studiestrans-national scenario studies
Three important aspects in the regional – trans-nationaldimension of more efficient integration of RES into futureinfrastructures:
• Trans-national infrastructures can allow for exploitation of RESlocated far from consumption centres
• Trans-national infrastructures can reduce the problem ofintermittent RES
• Utilisation of RES in regions with large consumption can reduceneed for trans-national infrastructures
Electricity and gas networks considered in parallel
2009-09-08 33IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures• Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common
electricity market from Step 1• Correlation also with trans-national gas model
Verify and finalize the results• If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional
and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference
2009-09-08 34IAEE European Conference, Vienna
Summary of approachSummary of approach
Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS
Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies
Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and
RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency
Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures• Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common
electricity market from Step 1• Correlation also with trans-national gas model
Verify and finalize the results• If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional
and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference
A modelling approach for moreA modelling approach for moreefficient integration of renewableefficient integration of renewableenergy into future infrastrucutresenergy into future infrastrucutres
Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesBjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research