Introduction to Experimental Economics Rosemarie Nagel Universitat Pompeu Fabra, ICREA, BGSE BLEESS Summer School June 2012.

Introduction to Experimental Economics

Rosemarie Nagel Universitat Pompeu Fabra, ICREA, BGSE

BLEESS Summer School June 2012

What is an (economic) experiment

Strategic game: Game theoryClear theoretic solution

Choice experiment: no clear pre-theoryNon-induces preferences;

Ebay-data created by ebay or by yourself

Or the survey I send to you!!!!!! Please do it!!!!

A very modern experiment: an auction example

“Taking a course in experimental economics is a little like going to dinner at a cannibal's house. Sometimes you will be the diner, sometimes you will be part of the dinner, sometimes both” Quote from “Experiments with Economic Principles”

Theodore Bergstrom and John H. Miller

Albert Einstein

The formulation of a problem is often more essential than its solution which may be merely a matter of mathematical or experimental skill. To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old questions from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science.” Einstein and Infeld, p. 92, The evolution of Physics, (1938)

Sources for experimental economics

• Books and surveys (experimental economics-behavioral surveys):

– Collection of experimental facts: Davis&Holt (1992), Kagel & Roth (1995)– Experimental methods: Friedman & Sunder (1994),– Facts and models: Camerer (2003),– Behavioral economics: Camerer & Loewenstein (2005);– Field experiments: Harrison and List (JEL, 2005)– Neuro economics: Camerer, Loewenstein, and Prelec (JEL, 2005)

– Soon to come: Kagel & Roth second volume! (see already Al Roth homepage)• Especially Chapter by John Duffy on Macro economics

• Other sources

– Classroom experiments and webgames: Charles Holt (2006)– Web experiments: Rubinstein, Plott etc. – Field experiments: List’s webpage with papers– Critics about experimental economics: Al Roth– Working papers: Charles Holt

• Micro text books with experimental economics– Schotter (1996)– Bergstrom and Miller (1997)

Experimental Design Issuessee Friedman and Sunder (1994), Davis and Holt (1992)

• Incentives• simplicity of game and instructions (avoid formal, technical language)• how to phrase the problem, economic context etc., abstract wording vs. "real world"

wording• example, questionnaire, test of understanding• Pilot studies• Trial rounds, • Subject pools• Subject experience• within vs. between group effect• matching procedure of subjects (e.g. random vs same subjects)• number of periods, subjects• information given to subjects• controlling communication between subjects• asking for comments• no intentional deception of subjects• strategy method vs. choices• computer experiments vs. hand-run experiments• Anonymity between subjects vs face to face

Public goodFree riding

CoordinationMultiplicity

BargainingFairness vs strategic behavior

IndustrialOrganization Competitive equilibrium

Asset MarketsPhenomena of stock market in lab

AuctionEquivalence

Individual Decision makingExpected utility vs

non-expected utility

Game theory, Applied game theory (espec.IO), MicroIn general: Utility maximization

Macro Economic questions Psychological

questionsField Data

Behavioral economics

Psychology based

Descriptive models (high and low game theory)

LearningSocial utility functionLevels of reasoning

Quantal response eq.Hyperbolic discountingBehavioral finance etc

Lab as test bed for new market design:e.g: FCC-auctions

Neuro economics:e.g experiments with patients with lesions,use of brain scans while being subject in experiment

Field experiments:Auctions of sports cards, Newspaper experimentsExternal validity

??? what is missingCOMPLEX GAMES

Experimental economics: topics

Macro experiments

Happiness

Why we do experimentssee also paper by Smith, 1992, and introduction of handbook experimental economics 1995 by Roth;

introduction by Davis and Holt, 1992

“Speaking to theorists”

What is the theoretic solution and does behavior conform with theory? (better use of theory: serves as benchmark)– in the short run– in the intermediate term (convergence)– in the long run (convergence)

what are the causes of this failure: – bounded rationality, other regarding preferences, coordination

failure, non expected utility, emotion, framing etc. – Calculation costs; difficulty of task– Also : bad design? => redesign of experiment

“Searching for facts”

• Establishing regularities - parsimonious models that describe deviation from theory? – non-expected utility models

– models of fairness

– models of adaptation and learning

– models of reasoning (levels of reasoning), etc.

– models with error

Note: model may or not be equilibrium model or have high or low rationality

• what kind of information each subject has about environment

• how many players participate• the subject pool composition• separation, isolation of problems, etc. • Communication• Responses• Replicability

Having control over important features of the environment and subjects

“Whispering in the ears of Princes”

Evaluation of policy proposal

• how to auction ‘runway rights’?

• FCC-auctions

• NASA: allocation access to space laboratory

• pollution rights, etc.

• Matching problems (schools-students)

Comparisons of environments• bargaining with one or more stages • different information structures• low number of players vs. high number of players,

etc.

Comparison of institutions, use the lab as a test-bed for institutional design

• different auctions• different mechanisms (e.g. for matching markets)• different bargaining models, etc.

Possible Criticism of Experimental Economics:

• wrong incentives (e.g. the stakes are too low)• experts behave differently than students (the

usual subject pool); more heterogeneous subject pool (different ages, educational background etc)

• how can laboratory experiments help us decide in the real world?

• having many repetitions is unrealistic• some mechanisms don't exist in the real world

What is a good experiment?(Al Roth)

• The answer depends on what you are testing or exploring, and who you are talking to.

• Loosely speaking, a good experiment is one that controls for the most plausible alternative hypotheses that might explain what is being observed, and therefore allows you to distinguish among them. But what are the most plausible alternative hypotheses may depend on who you are talking to (which is why economists and psychologists sometimes run rather different experiments concerning roughly similar phenomena). The most plausible alternative hypotheses may also depend on recent developments in theory, in the laboratory (yours or someone else’s), or in the field. So a “good experiment” is a creature of its time (and may even make itself obsolete, as when it controls for a hypothesis which it discredits, making those controls unnecessary in future experiments).

How we start with an experiment

• Read surveys, major journals• Participate in experiments• Think of questions you have come up with during your studies• Formulate an economic question

– Specify the area (e. g. Labor, Macro, Marketing) – What is an important question in a given field– Use your (theoretic) model/paper from other classes

• Use a nice game/situation/model (from class, literature) • Use a technique:

– Eg. Comparison of learning models, then search for game• Deviate from a given paper (add a new treatment)• Ask your supervisor• Know your limits

Guideline to prepare for your own experimental idea (adjusted from

Shyam Sunder, Yale University) 1. What is the question you would like to have answered after the experiment?

(Your answer should be a single sentence with a question mark at the end.) 2. What do you know already about the possible answers to the question you

have stated above? 3. What are the various possible ways of finding an answer to the question you

have stated above? Include both experimental as well as any other methods you know about.

4. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using an experiment to find an answer?

5. How important is this question to YOU? What are the chances that the answer you get from the experiment will surprise you or others? What are the chances that it will change someone’s mind?

6. How would you conduct the experiment? (Write down a design and instructions.) 7. Is your experimental design the simplest possible design to help answer the question you have stated?

7. What are the (possible) outcomes of the experiment? Do the experiment with your class mates/students/friends. Do the (possible) outcomes include at least one outcome that will answer the question you stated above? What is the chance that you will observe this outcome? At any stage of your thinking, feel free to go back and revise your earlier answers if you wish to.

8. COME AND TALK TO ME