Introduction to CMI-16: The sixteenth annual meeting of the Carbon Mitigation Initiative Steve Pacala and Robert Socolow Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) Princeton University April 4, 2017
IntroductiontoCMI-16:ThesixteenthannualmeetingoftheCarbonMitigationInitiative
StevePacalaandRobertSocolowCarbonMitigationInitiative(CMI)
PrincetonUniversity
April4,2017
Co-Directors:S.PacalaR.Socolow
BP:C.FeildingG.Hill
AdvisoryCouncil:S.Benson,StanfordD.Burtraw,ResourcesfortheFutureD.Hawkins,NaturalResourcesDefense
CouncilM.Levi,CouncilonForeignRelationsD.Schrag,Harvard
Collaborators(partiallist):GFDL,PrincetonNJTsinghuaUniversityPolitecnico diMilanoUniversityofBergenClimateCentral,PrincetonNJ
ResearchGroups:ScienceTechnologyIntegration
CMIStructure
AlternatemeetingsinLondonandPrinceton
LaboratorySafety
BPmonitorslaboratorysafetyannually,eithervisitingindividuallabsorlearningaboutnewdevelopmentsattheUniversitylevel.
CMI’sCurrentLabs:Sciencelabs:Bender(gassesinice)andMorel(oceangeochemistry)
Engineeringlabs:Bourg(geologicalengineering),Steingart(batteries),andStone(fluids)
Feb14,2017:PresentationtoCindyandGardinerfromPrincetonEnvironmentalHealthandSafety(EHS,http://ehs.princeton.edu/)aboutSHIELD(Safety,Health,InspectionandEquipmentLogisticsDatabase).SHIELDisnewcampus-widehealth/safetysoftwarethatis“revolutionizing”informationmanagement.
PrincetonlabsafetyreportsaresenttoGardinereachyear.
History
CMIbeganin2000,atatimewhenJohnBrownesensedthattheworldmightpassthroughadiscontinuityandbegintotakeclimatechangeseriously.
BrownewantedBPtodevelopacomfortablerelationshipwitharesearchcenterthatwouldadvanceclimatescienceandanalyzelow-carbontechnology.
Thisremainsourjointobjective.
Timeline(lasttwoyears)
“Adangerousmomentforclimatechangeandforscience”
“Thescrimmagelineforclimatechangehasmoveddramatically,andthegamehasbecomemoredangerous…ScientistsmustfindinnovativewaystoaddressthedissidentviewsofclimatechangesciencethathavehadsuchastronginfluenceontheRepublicanParty.”
“Thepublicpolicyproblemofclimatechangeis,atitscore,aproblemofriskmanagementinthefaceofimperfectlyunderstoodrisks.Businessandmilitaryleadersarenaturalpartners,becausetheyunderstandriskmanagement.”
Nov.22,2017
RisksofclimatechangeforBP
TheclimateproblemhasthepotentialtodisruptBP’scorebusinessinatleastthreeways:
1. Effectiveclimatepoliciescanemergethatdiscouragefossilfuelconsumption,thatimposeenvironmentalperformancestandardsonproductionprocesses,andthatsubsidizeorotherwisepromoteefficiencyandlowcarbonenergy.
2. Climate-motivatedresearchcancreatedisruptivenewenergytechnology.
3. Theconsequences ofclimatechangecandirectlydisruptBP’sinvestmentsinenergyproductioninfrastructureandsupplychains.
BPsupportsCMItohelpmanagerisks
1.CMIsharpensBP’scorporateperspectiveonclimatechange.ItprovidesBPwithstrategicunderstandingofthepotentialphysical,biologicalandhumansystemsimpacts.
2.BPbenefitswhenCMIdisseminatessoundinformationthatsupportseffectivepublicpolicydiscussions.
3.BPleveragesthemuchlargerresearchprogramsoftheCMIinvestigators.
CMIAnnualReport
TableofContents
PEIBrochure
2017CMIBestPaperAward
EveryyearCMIawardsaprizetoapost-doctoralfellowwhohasmadeastrongcontributiontoastrongpaper.Thisyear’swinnerisBhargavRallabandi.Thepaperis:
BhargavRallabandi,ZhongZheng,MichaelWinton,andHowardA.Stone,Wind-DrivenFormationofIceBridgesinStraits,”PhysicalReviewLetters118,128701(March21,2017).
Break-upofanicebridgeintheNaresStrait(imagefromNASA]
Icebridgesformonlybeyondacriticalthicknessoftheseaice,relatedtowindstressesandthewidthofthestrait.Icebridges“clog”astrait,inhibitingtheexportofArcticseaiceintothewarmerAtlanticOcean.Inawarmingclimate,stableicebridgesmaynotform,acceleratingthelossofArcticseaice.
Thisisabridgepaperinasecondsense:anewGFDL-campuscollaboration.
PostersScienceGroup:KieranBhatia:"TheinfluenceofclimatechangeontropicalcyclonesintheHiFLOR model"StuartEvans:"Influenceoflandsurfaceprocessesonseasonalandinterannual variabilityofAustraliandustandclimateintheNOAA/GFDLCM3model"
BrandonReichl:"Oceansurfacewavesincoupledclimatemodeling"BhargavRallabandi:“SeaicedynamicsandbridgeformationinArcticstraits”Marjolein vanHuijgevoort:“Implementationofwatermanagementpracticesinaglobalscalelandmodel”(presentedbyChrisMilly)
TechnologyGroup:IanBourg:“Hydrophobicadsorptionatclay-waterinterfaces”GregDavies:"Batterystateofhealthestimationviamachinelearningandultrasonics”RyanEdwards:“Numericalmodelingofwaterandgasflowinshalegasformations:Wheredoesthewatergo?”
KevinKnehr:“Brominecaptureinminimalarchitecturezinc-brominebatteries”Ching-YaoLai:“Fluid-drivenfracture:scaling,flowback andfoams”Yiheng Tao:"Vertically-integrateddual-permeabilitymodelforCO2 injectioninfracturedreservoirs“
IntegrationGroup:HansMeerman:“‘Drop-in’transportfuelsviahydropyrolysis ofbiomass:aneconomicoptionfornegativeemissions?”
LeiZhao:“Interactionsbetweenurbanheatislandandheatwaveevents”(presentedbyJaneBaldwin)
AdvisoryCommittee(seefacebook)
SallyBensonStanfordUniversityProfessorof
EnergyResourcesEngineering
(unabletoattend)
FransBerkhoutKing’sCollege
LondonExecutiveDeanoftheFacultyof
SocialScienceandPublicPolicy;ProfessorofEnvironment,SocietyandClimate
OttmarEdenhoferPotsdamInstituteforClimateImpact
ResearchDeputyDirector
andChiefEconomist
(unabletoattend)
DavidHawkinsNatural
ResourcesDefenseCouncil
DirectorofClimatePrograms
DanielSchragHarvardUniversityProfessorofGeology;
ProfessorofEnvironmentalScienceandEngineering;DirectoroftheCenterfor
theEnvironment;DirectoroftheScience,TechnologyandPublicPolicyProgramatthe
KennedySchool
Agenda:Thismorning
Agenda:Thisafternoon
Agenda:Tomorrow
CMIPrincipalInvestigators
SCIENCE
TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION
PACALASARMIENTOMORELBENDERVECCHI
SOCOLOWWILLIAMS
OPPENHIMERPACALA
CELIASTEINGART
STONEBOURG
OvertoSteve
CMIScience2017
PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova
Netzero andnegativeemissionsPacala,Shevliakova
ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi,GFDL
GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova
31%11.6GtCO2/yr
FateofanthropogenicCO2 emissions(2006-2015)
Source:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglio etal2013;LeQuéréetal2016; GlobalCarbonBudget2016
26%9.7GtCO2/yr
34.1GtCO2/yr
91%
9%3.5GtCO2/yr
16.4GtCO2/yr
44%
Sources=Sinks
Changesinthebudgetovertime
Sinkshavebeenincreasingformorethan50years.
Source:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglio etal2013;LeQuéréetal2016;GlobalCarbonBudget2016
CMIScience2017
PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova
NetzeroandnegativeemissionsPacala,Sheviliakova
ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi, GFDL
GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova
ParisScenarioFossilEmissions-CO2 stabilizesat442ppmin2050
andreaches1.75°Cin2100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10
Allowed
Fossil
EmissionsGTCO2/y
2010 21002050
PredictionsoftheNOAAGFDLEarthSystemModel
Thiswouldbezerowithouttheoceanicandterrestrialsinks.
Parisnegative-carbonwedges
CCS
Negative-carbonwedges
Chair,StephenPacala(NAS),PrincetonUniversityMahdiAl-Kaisi,IowaStateUniversityMarkA.Barteau (NAE),UniversityofMichiganEricaBelmont,UniversityofWyomingSallyM.Benson,StanfordUniversityRichardBirdsey,WoodsHoleResearchCenterDaneBoysen,CyclotronRoad/LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryRileyDuren,JetPropulsionLaboratoryCharlesHopkinson,UniversityofGeorgiaChristopherJones,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnologyPeterKelemen (NAS),ColumbiaUniversityAnnieLevasseur,École Polytechnique deMontréalKeithPaustian,ColoradoStateUniversityJianwu (Jim)Tang,MarineBiologicalLaboratoryTiffanyTroxler,FloridaInternationalUniversityMichaelWara,StanfordUniversityJenniferWilcox,ColoradoSchoolofMines
CMIScience2017
PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova
NetzeroandnegativeemissionsPacala,Sheviliakova
ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi,GFDL
GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova
Mostimpactfulhurricanestendtobestrongest.Needpredictionmodelsthatcancapturethem.Newprototype
model(“GFDL-HiFLOR”,firstrunMay2014)abletosimulateCat.4-5s
Murakamietal.(2015,J.Clim)
(25kmFV3atmospherecoupledto1° MOM5)
CMIScience2017
PredictingCarbonSinksPacala,Sarmiento,Shevliakova
NetzeroandnegativeemissionsPacala,Sheviliakova
ExtremeweatherunderclimatechangeVecchi,GFDL
GlobalmethanecycleZhang,Horowitz,Poulot,Morel,Shevliakova
UnlikeCO2,methaneisrelativelyshort-livedinthetheatmosphere,but120timesmorepotentperunitmassasagreenhousegas.FromOcko etal.2017,Science, Inpress.
©2015SBCEnergyInstitute.
HumanitymustlimitemissionsofbothmethaneandCO2 toachievetheParistargets.
AtmosphericLifetimes
Greenh
ousewarmingpe
run
itmassrelativetoCO2
10 100 1000
100
1
10,000
AtmosphericLifetimeinYears
AnthropogenicMethaneSources(2000s)
Global Carbon Project 2013; Figure based on Kirschke et al. 2013
Quantifyingthecontributionofindividualsourcesandsinkstoatmosphericmethanevariabilityatglobalscales.
Discoveringcontrolsonmicrobialmethanemetabolismanditsisotopicsignatures.
NewSupplementaryAwardFromBPtoStudyGlobalMethane:2017-2020
CMIScience2017OtherStudiesDescribedinPostersandintheCMIAnnualReport:
FrancoisMorel:Oceanacidificationandtheavailabilityoftracemetals.MichaelBender:>millionyearoldicesupportscurrentunderstandingofthelinkbetweenCO2andclimate.HowardStone:Icedynamicsonlandandsea.
KieranBhatia:"TheinfluenceofclimatechangeontropicalcyclonesintheHiFLORmodel"StuartEvans:"InfluenceoflandsurfaceprocessesonseasonalandinterannualvariabilityofAustraliandustandclimateintheNOAA/GFDLCM3model"BrandonReichl:"Oceansurfacewavesincoupledclimatemodeling"Bhargav Rallabandi:“SeaicedynamicsandbridgeformationinArcticstraits”Marjolein vanHuijgevoort:“Implementationofwatermanagementpracticesinaglobalscalelandmodel”(presentedbyChrisMilly)
BacktoRob
TheweakcaseforCCU-fuels
Inthesecondhalfof2016IservedonataskforcethatwroteareportfortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy.Entitled“TaskForceReportonCO2 UtilizationandNegativeEmissionsTechnologies,”itwassubmittedtoSecretaryofEnergy,ErnestJ.Moniz,onDecember13,2016.Itisonlineathttps://energy.gov/seab/downloads/final-report-task-force-co2-utilization,wherethetaskforceparticipantsandaDOE“Assessment”ofthereportarealsofound.
HereIexploreanissuethatourreportleftunresolved.ItgoesbeyondmyHighlightinthe2016AnnualReport.
Acknowledgements:NateLewis,ArunMajumdar,SallyBenson,EmilyCarter,MikeRamage,EricToone;JulioFriedmann,JonathanForsyth,IanLuciani,RobertWilliams.
Atmosphere
Subsurface
Economy
Theeconomy’scurrentcarbonflows
Today’santhropogeniccarbonflowsaredominatedbyextractionoffossilfuelandCO2 emissiontotheatmosphere.
Aneconomyresponsivetoclimatechangemodifiestheseflows.Ourcommitteeexcludedconsiderationofthenon-carboneconomy(allrenewablesandnuclear).Welookedonlyatmodificationsthatretainaflowofcarbon.These canbereducedtocombinationsofthreebuildingblocks.
Twonet-zerobuildingblocks
Atmosphere
Subsurface
Economy
CurrentEconomy
Atmosphere
Subsurface
Economy
PreventCO2 emission
Atmosphere
Subsurface
Economy
Usecarbononlyfromair
ConvertCO2 toahydrocarbon
Atmosphere
Subsurface
Economy
Incombination:NegativeCarbon
Augmentedsinks:athirdbuildingblock
Atmosphere
Subsurface
Economy
CurrentEconomy,augmentedview
Landandoceancarbonsinks
Enhancedsinks
Inthisidealization,theflowsofcarbonthroughtheeconomyareunchanged.
Whataboutthehalfbuildingblock:CO2 captureanduse(CCU)forfuel?
MotivationforCCU-fuel:SurelythereissomethingbettertodowithCO2 thanstickitunderground!
But,whendoesCCU-fuelmakesense?
Atmosphere
Subsurface
CentralizedEnergy
DecentralizedEnergy
OthernamesforCCU:“Carbonrecycle,”“Usingcarbontwice.”
TheCCU-fuelstoryline
Atmosphere
Subsurface
CentralizedEnergy
DecentralizedEnergy
“Sourceplant”
“CO2-enablingplant”
Storyline:Acarbon-basedtransportfuelwithnoCO2 emissionsisdesired.CarbonfromCO2 thatotherwisewouldhavebeenemittedatafossilfuelpowerplantmeetsthiscriterion.
Whatneedstobetrue?A. Electricvehicles,H2 vehicles,andbiofuelareunattractiveB. Highcarbonprice,butfossilfuelpowerstillabundantC. CO2 captureandreductionachievableatmodestcostD. CO2 storageunavailable
Theexternalenablingenergy
Atmosphere
Subsurface
CentralizedEnergy
DecentralizedEnergy
Theenablingenergy(greenarrow)mustbelow-carbon,andinquantityitmustexceedtheenergyreleasedwhenthevehiclefuelisburned.
Itisnaturaltoask:Aretherebettersystems,wheretheenablingenergyisuseddifferently?
Usetheenablingenergyforvehicles?
Atmosphere
Subsurface
DecentralizedEnergy+Atmosphere
Subsurface
CentralizedEnergy
CCU-fuelwinsthiscompetitiononlyif(aswehaveagreedtoassume)electricvehicles,H2vehicles,andbiofuelsarenotavailable.
Usetheenablingenergytodisplacefossilpower?
Atmosphere
Subsurface
DecentralizedEnergy+Atmosphere
Subsurface
CentralizedEnergy
CCU-fuellosesthiscompetitionevenatahighoilprice,becausethensynfuelscanbeproducedfromwhateverwouldhavebeentheCCUfeedstock(coal,nat.gas,biomass).IncontrasttoCCU,thesynfuelsplantisintegrated,andCdoesnotgoallthewaytoCO2 beforereduction;theCgoesonlytoCO.
0thervariants:Specialinitialconditions
Atmosphere
Subsurface
CentralizedEnergy DecentralizedEnergy
ThreevariantswhereCO2 isalreadythere,forsomereason:
CCSthrivesbutthenisthwarted(aleak).CCU-fueloschoseninsteadofdiscardingtheCCunit.
Onagrid,bothsolarpowerandnaturalgaswithCCS areabundant.CCUisanalternativeto“curtailment.”Atnoon,CCSbecomesCCU(lowcapacityfactorfortheCCUunit).CCUfuelcompeteswithload-shifting,storage.
CO2 forCCUcomesfromtheair,notfromapowerplant.
Ignorenichemarkets,storageAtmosphere
Subsurface
CentralizedEnergy DecentralizedEnergy
Twofurtherobservations:
1. TheSEABCommitteechargewastolookonlyat>1GtCO2/yr markets,whichmeanssynfuelforallsectorsandmaybeplastics.Weignoredhigh-valuenichemarkets,e.g.,pharmaceuticals,membranes.
2. CCUisnotastoragestrategy.OnlythelikesofaplasticbenchwillkeepCO2 outoftheatmosphereforacenturyormore.The“delaytime,”(timefromfirsttosecondhydrocarbonoxidation)istypicallyonlymonths.
DistinguishCCU-EORandCCU-fuelDistinguishCO2 useafterconversiontoahydrocarbonvs.useasCO2.
UseofCO2 formodifiedenhancedoilrecovery(EOR)maybecomeanimportantcarbonmanagementstrategy.
CurrentEORhasroughlya1:1carbon-flowratio(oneexternalCisstoredinthereservoirforeachCproduced).
ModifiedEORmayfeatureamuchlargerratio;say,3:1.Thiswouldinvolveentirelydifferentreservoirmanagement.
ModifiedEORmaybetheonlycrediblerealizationofCCU.