Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

Introduction to Causal Analysis

Introduction to Causal Analysis

Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

What is a cause?What is a cause?

Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

What is a cause?What is a cause?

Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

for exercise

• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation

What is a Cause?

• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation

What is a Cause?

Fitting in clothes one size smaller

• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation

What is a Cause?

… because I want to be healthy.

• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation

What is a Cause?

My commitment and will power makes me exercise.

• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation

What is a Cause?

• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation

What is a Cause?Root

Cause

Immediate cause

Relapse

Analyze & Understan

d

Change

• Events– Not physical objects

• Absent before, present now

Cause and Effects Are Events

My spouse makes me exercise

My spouse reminded me to exercise

Causes are Temporary Events

All Causes Describe a Mechanism

Root caus

e… Direct

causeEffec

t

All Causes Describe a Mechanism

Watching a late

show

Sleeping late

Waking up late

No exercise before work

• No sure relationship

The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain

• No sure relationship

The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain

Watching a late

show

Sleeping late

Waking up late

Exercise

before work

• ↑ effect

Causes Increase Likelihood of Effects

Vacation

Exercise

Causes Precede Effects

Vacation

Exercise

Causes Precede Effects

Anticipation of going on vacation

Exercise

Effect

Cause

Other cause

s

Everything Is Not a Cause

Exercise

Bike to

work

Make a bike route

Everything Is Not a Cause

Exercise

Bike to

work

Everything Is Not a Cause

• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …

Counterfactual

• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …

Counterfactual

Got up early

Phone call

No exercise

I got up early and almost did my morning exercise before I got interrupted by a call.

• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …

Counterfactual

I could have exercised if I had gotten up early.

• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …

Counterfactual

I would have exercised if I were on vacation.

• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …

Counterfactual

Instead of getting up early to exercise I took my time and made a good breakfast.

• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …

Counterfactual

Get a

ball

Invite friends

Play soccer

Get right cloth

es

Causes Working In Concert

Sell car and

bike to work

Give up space and park at far end of the lot

Exercise

Alternative Causes

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

New Thinking

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

A cause is an event that occurs sometimes

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Precedes the effect

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Co-occurs frequently with the effect

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Absent cause, absent effect

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Directly leads to the effect

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Describes a mechanism

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Can be modified

Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson

Search for Causes

An event that occurs sometimes

Frequently precedes the effect

Describes a mechanism

Can be modified