InterVISTAS Aviation Intelligence Report October 2014

2014

IN THIS ISSUE:PAGE 3

Feature ArticlesPAGE 7

Regional ReportsPAGE 11

Aviation NewsPAGE 14

Traffic UpdatesPAGE 17

InterVISTAS News

OCTO

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Deborah MeehanPresident and CEO

InterVISTAS Consulting Group

Vic PrinsAviation Director/Managing Director

Royal HaskoningDHV

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Hello and welcome to the October edition of the Aviation Intelligence report. This month, we bring you three feature articles. Our partner company NACO, has won a bid for the design of Mexico City’s new international airport. Ben Hasselman describes the bid and introduces our collaborating firms, Foster + Partners and Fernando Romero Enterprise (FR-EE).

Rob Andriulaitis of our Vancouver office writes on the recent recovery observed in the air cargo sector, and the hope for ongoing momentum of this positive turn.

Lastly, Bill Swellbar in our Boston office has written about the Regional Air Service Alliance, a group focused on protecting air services to small and rural communities of the U.S., which are experiencing declines in

FOREWORD NACO A KEY PLAYER IN THE WINNING TEAM TO DESIGN MEXICO CITY’S NEW INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

air service due to a cutback in the amount of regional airline traffic.

We hope you enjoy this month’s edition.

Best regards,Deborah Meehan & Vic Prins

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FeatureFeature

Feature

Ben HasselmanBusiness Development Director

The Hague, Netherlands

Mexico’s President, Enrique Peña Nieto, announced on 3 September 2014 in Mexico City that the collaboration between Foster + Partners, FR-EE (Fernando Romero Enterprise) and NACO, Netherlands Airport Consultants (a company of Royal HaskoningDHV) is the winning team to design Mexico City’s new international airport.

Together with Foster + Partners and FR-EE, NACO designed what is meant to be the world’s most sustainable airport.

It all started in February with a telephone call out of London from the famous architect Lord Norman Foster of Thames Bank OM: “Please help us establish the next level of passenger terminal building in Mexico”. We were approached by Foster + Partners because our companies have a successful history together: first with the winning design for the new terminal (T3) at Beijing Capital International Airport and currently for the design of the new passenger terminal building at Kuwait International Airport.

This request from F+P accelerated activities between the two companies - just about requiring our own shuttle service between The Hague and the British capital!. A core team of eight airport architects and planners started a pressure cooker approach from which the functional layout had to be established. The opinionated specialists had only two months for their design, but they also had to convince Lord Foster to start all over again with sketches, in order to come up with the best plan.

The Government of Mexico aims to realise a completely new greenfield international airport, an icon inspired by Mexican

NACO A KEY PLAYER IN THE WINNING TEAM TO DESIGN MEXICO CITY’S NEW INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

architecture and symbolism, on an available site approximately 30 kilometers from the centre of Mexico City. Within this context Foster and the Mexican architect Fernando Romero prepared the winning design. The original master plan concept opted for a relatively small terminal building with a train station at a distance, connected by an underground rail line. NACO suggested combining the terminal and train station to create one entity and thus ultimately creating

a more cost effective, flexible and unique passenger experience. The new facility will be “a one roof terminal” with a first phase of 550 square meters floor area capable of handling 50 million annual passengers. The total capacity of the airport, expected to be reached in 2062, is 120 million annual passengers. The new airport will be capable of handling 80 aircraft simultaneously upon completion over four years from now.

The design of this terminal is special and trend setting. The span is enormous, three times the current terminal, with the longest span approximately 170 meters across. Lord Foster describes this terminal building “as a celebration of space and light”. The light-weight structures of steel and glass and the curved roofs are designed to cope with the challenging soil conditions at the site. The special pre-fabricated system can be assembled in a quick way without the need of additional supports or scaffolding. The new airport will be a masterpiece of Mexican innovation, built by Mexican contractors and engineers.

http://www.naco.nl/english/news/news-archive/winning-design-for-mexico-citys-new-international-airport.html

To view the video and original Foster + Partner press release please go to:http://www.fosterandpartners.com/news/archive/2014/09/httpwwwfosterandpartnerscomnewsarchive201409foster-and-partners-to-design-new-international-airport-for-mexico-city/

http://www.fosterandpartners.com/practice-data/videos/#showBy=list&vid=105124073

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CARGO CAPERS

Rob AndriulaitisVice President, Transportation &

Logistics StudiesVancouver, Canada

Hard times for air cargoWhen the 2008/2009 recession hit, passenger volumes certainly declined, but that was nothing compared to freight. When the air cargo market bottomed out in January 2009, IATA statistics showed freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) were down 23.2% from the previous year. While cargo recovered to a volume exceeding pre-recession levels by early 2010, the industry has stagnated since then. Halfway into 2014, volumes were no higher than they were in early 2010, again according to IATA.

You don’t have to look hard to continue to find gloomy headlines appearing in the media: key personnel changes at Lufthansa Cargo and Cargolux, the elimination of the MD-11 freighters at Air France/KLM, a potential showdown between FIATA and IATA on a proposed Paper Air Waybill Surcharge, and questions about the future of Martinair as well as Centurian Air Cargo, which faces lawsuits for unpaid fuel bills. Taken together, these headlines suggest the industry is not yet in a happy place.

But wait … an air cargo recovery??But there are positive signs too, with some carriers showing their optimism that the industry is poised for growth. IAG Cargo is expanding in the U.S. and is expanding its agreement with Qatar Airways. DHL continues to grow its international business out of the U.S. Airbridge Cargo is launching new services focusing on pharmaceuticals. AirCargoGlobal (essentially the former AirCargoGermany operating under a Slovakian AOC) has started up service. Lufthansa Cargo and ANA obtained anti-trust immunity to optimize air

freight transport between the EU and Japan. Also, while some carriers are downsizing their freighter fleet, the new generation of passenger aircraft are more cargo friendly, handling far more containerized cargo than their predecessors, and giving shippers improved options.

The July 2014 edition of the IATA Air Freight Market Analysis showed strong overall performance, with all regions except Europe achieving in excess of 5% growth over July 2013. (Europe lagged at 1.8% growth.) Overall, there appears to be a resumption in the growth of air cargo.

So, can the current momentum be maintained?Air cargo has always been linked closely to world trade. Late in 2013, the WTO agreement struck in Bali represented the first agreement reached in over a decade since the Doha Round of negotiations began. The WTO projects the Bali Agreement will boost the global economy by $1 trillion USD a year by streamlining customs and resolving past impasses on agricultural subsidies (which is unfortunately causing a last minute hiccough that could scuttle the deal) and supporting and boosting trade for the developing nations. While trade growth was modest the last couple of years, 2014 is shaping up stronger and assuming the implementation of the Bali agreement this could well portend a return to higher growth rates, although likely not as high as we’ve seen in the past.

At the more micro level, the high degree of interest in the iPhone6 (launched September

19th) has the carriers buzzing. It may not repeat the traffic boost of the iPad, but it is still expected to be a significant mover. Fundamentally, however, I think we can also look at what is going on in the marine industry for some insights into air cargo. There has always been a trade-off between the higher costs of air versus the longer transit time by sea. During the recession, the focus was on cost, and combined with low carrying costs due to very low interest rates, there was a shift of some traffic from air to marine. However, the liners’ continuing practice of slow-steaming (and ever increasing instances of cancelled sailings) has increased marine’s time disadvantage, which puts air cargo in a more favourable light. If the forwarders and air carriers can improve co-ordination to lessen air cargo shipment times, as interest rates climb, air cargo should be well positioned to capture a significant piece of traffic that might otherwise have gone by sea. Given the huge volumes moving by ship, even modest inroads in modal share will have a huge impact on air cargo volumes.

Indeed, I think the industry can maintain the current momentum moving forward.


Feature

William S. “Bill” SwellbarExecutive Vice President

Washington, DC, United States

THE REGIONAL AIR SERVICE ALLIANCEITS MISSION: TO REMOVE IMPEDIMENTS TO, AND FIND POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR,

THE MAINTENANCE OF SUSTAINABLE AIR SERVICE TO SMALL AND MEDIUM SIzED COMMUNITIES IN THE U.S.

As the U.S. airline industry consolidated, the merging carriers promised that the newly combined networks would benefit communities of all sizes – and small communities in particular. Whereas there are a host of structural issues challenging air service in the U.S., that promise is now increasingly at risk because of a pending shortage of regional airline pilots hastened by new regulatory and legislative requirements.

The structural issues that small communities in the United States face in today’s airline industry environment are many. Carriers have removed service from smaller markets and closed secondary hubs in a wave of industry consolidation and capacity discipline. In the current era of high fuel prices, service on 37-50 seat regional jets is often not financially viable, yet there is no fuel-efficient 50-seat or less aircraft in the manufacturing pipeline. As a result, small airports are having to turn, or will be forced to turn, to expensive incentive packages to win new service and, in many cases, maintain the service they already have.

The Immediate IssueFollowing the tragic 2009 commuter airline crash outside of Buffalo, New York, the National Transportation Safety Board attributed the ultimate cause to pilot error. The United States Congress subsequently passed legislation in 2013 requiring airline first officers to hold an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate with a minimum of 1,500 hours of flight time – an increase of 500 percent. The new rule was designed to improve the level of safe air service provided by regional airlines, but it may have had dramatic unintended consequences that will put at risk the very air service it is designed to enhance. Here’s why: ■ The new rule means a substantial

increase in the amount of time and money student pilots must spend to earn an ATP certificate. With regional airline pilot starting salaries averaging below $25,000 a year, fewer people will consider the time and monetary investment worth the eventual pay-off of a higher-paying position with a large mainline airline. Without some legislative and regulatory changes, it will be much harder for airlines to find qualified applicants.

■ To ensure an adequate talent pool, regional airlines may be forced to provide additional training to cover the five-fold increase in required flight time. They also may be required to increase wages to ensure piloting regional aircraft remains a viable career choice. Regardless, regional airlines’ costs will increase and they will be forced to charge their bigger partner airlines more to provide regional air service. As costs rise, the big airlines will reevaluate the smaller cities they serve, eliminating, or reducing, service to those that can no longer support the increased expenditure.

Today, more than 265 mainland U.S. airports receive at least 90 percent of their departures from regional operators. Regional airlines provide at least 50 percent of the departures in 35 states and carry 22 percent of the nation’s demand to airports large and small. The pilot shortage issue is not just a small market problem because air service at the large hub airports depends on traffic from the regional sector.

Because air service supports local and regional economies, these new regulations will place in peril millions – if not billions – of dollars in

economic impact in the communities where the negative financial consequences will be most felt.

A reduction in regional air service will impact communities of all sizes, including the businesses and airports operating in those communities. It also will affect major airlines that rely on connecting air traffic from smaller markets to feed their larger airplanes and hubs. And it will affect regional airlines, the sector of the commercial aviation industry that operates the only type of aircraft that can profitably serve the smallest communities.

Working Toward SolutionsLosing regional air service as an unintended consequence of legislation/regulation is unacceptable. The industry must work together and act swiftly to stave off potentially devastating air service losses.

The Regional Air Service Alliance is being formed as a coalition of airports, state aviation departments, businesses, economic development agencies, chambers of commerce and others. The coalition will introduce and manage educational and lobbying initiatives designed to preserve today’s valuable regional air service. William Swelbar will serve as the Executive Director of the coalition. A board comprised of diverse members will be formed to oversee the operation of the coalition.

NOTE: Joining the coalition does not guarantee all markets served today will be served tomorrow; however coalition members will have a say in making a change to existing policies that have resulted or will clearly result in the unintended consequence of lost air service.



Regional Reports

UNITED STATES REPORT

Steve MartinSenior Vice President Washington DC, USA

Export-import bank’s role in aircraft purchases debatedThe role of the Export-Import Bank in supporting the manufacturing and sale of commercial aircraft is also under Congressional review. The “Ex-Im” Bank provides loans, loan guarantees and credit insurance to overseas buyers of U.S. goods. Its charter was to expire at the end of September, but it received a legislative extension to continue to back new loans for 9 more months. Supporters breathed a sigh of relief, but remain concerned about the Bank’s long-term outlook.

Delta Air Lines has been a vocal critic of the Ex-Im Bank’s subsidizing purchases of Boeing aircraft, which Delta then alleges causes competitive distortions. The manufacture and sale of U.S. general aviation aircraft also benefit from Ex-Im Bank financing. Statistics from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association indicate that more than 50 percent of the revenue of U.S. general aviation manufacturers in 2013 was derived from exports. A decade earlier, that figure was only 20 percent.

At a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee, Delta Air Lines CEO

Richard Anderson argued that Ex-Im has subsidized foreign airlines’ purchases of Boeing aircraft, giving them a competitive advantage. But Anderson said Delta wouldn’t oppose renewing the bank’s charter as long as several specific reforms were made. Delta believes that the Ex-Im should stop financing purchases of large jets used in international flights by state-owned airlines.Delta claimed that Emirates saves up to $20 million per aircraft with lower interest rates guaranteed by Ex-Im financing.

Delta has found some support from conservative Republicans who oppose the bank’s programs as “corporate welfare” that benefits “some of the largest, richest, most politically connected corporations in the world.” Boeing, Caterpillar and General Electric are among the biggest beneficiaries of Ex-Im financing.

The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) has also joined Delta in calling for changes to the Bank’s authority. ALPA’s resistance focuses only on financing for wide-body aircraft. ALPA also says that European nations with export credit agency financing should refrain from extending financing for wide-body aircraft.

That opposition has pitted them against their traditional allies among major corporations who have made the bank’s renewal a top priority. One compromise floated would limit the Bank’s ability to provide aid to state-owned companies. It also would lower the bank’s lending cap, responding to concerns that the bank puts too much taxpayer money at risk. And it would reauthorize the bank for just three years, rather than the five requested by Ex-Im.

A coalition of businesses led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers is supporting agency. It argues that the bank provides financing only when private-sector banks are unwilling to do so. They also say U.S. competitors in Europe, Japan and other countries benefit from more aggressive export financing by their governments.

Boeing argues that Delta’s assertions are “nothing more than sleight of hand.” Boeing disputed Delta’s claim that Emirates received a 3.41% interest rate for a deal with Boeing that was backed by Ex-Im but got a 6.17% interest rate for an Airbus A380. Boeing insisted that that A380 deal originally went to another firm (a lessor called Doric), which then leased the aircraft to Emirates. Because Doric is a smaller lessor, and because the A380 is harder to finance than the Boeing 777, the interest rates were higher, said Boeing.

Boeing also said that if Ex-Im can no longer support their customers’ financing needs, they may have no choice but to buy from Airbus.


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Ian KincaidVice President,

Economic AnalysisLondon, UK

EUROPE REPORT

Ryanair Poised for USD 11 billion 737 Max Jet OrderRyanair, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, has completed an USD 11 billion deal to buy at least 100 of Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft, launching a new version of the single-aisle plane that will allow it to squeeze in more passengers. The Irish airline also secured options on 100 more of the modified aircraft, bringing the value of the deal to about USD 22 billion, if all the options are exercised.

To be delivered between 2019 and 2023, the new short-haul aircraft form part of Ryanair’s plan to increase its fleet from 308 aircraft at present to 520 by 2024 and grow passenger numbers from 80 million to 150 million over the same period. Last year, the airline ordered 175 current-generation 737s, later adding an additional five. The airline notes that the expansion will create 3,000 new jobs for pilots, cabin crew, and engineers in Europe.

Ryanair plans to fit 197 passengers into each of the 737 Max aircraft while providing slightly

more leg room by rearranging galleys and lavatories. The airline states that adding eight extra seats to the existing 189 will increase the annual revenue by USD 1 million per plane. In addition, Boeing is adding aerodynamic improvements and different engines to the 737 Max that will improve fuel efficiency by 14% over current versions of the 737. With the modified version Ryanair has ordered, the airline expects its per-seat fuel use to drop by 18%. Further cutting operating costs is a key part of Ryanair’s strategy to grow the market while taking market share from legacy carriers such as Lufthansa, SAS, British Airways, and Alitalia.Ryanair plans to fly its new jets into primary airports vacated by network airlines that are paring short-haul services in Europe, as well as destinations in the Middle East and North Africa.

UK to liberalize transit visa regimeThe United Kingdom is to relax its transit visa regime to encourage more air passengers – particularly Chinese nationals – to travel through the country. Holders of valid visas issued by the U.S., Australia, Canada, and New zealand will no longer require visas to transit through the UK, even when they are not en route to or from these countries. Irish biometric visas will also be eligible for exempt transit.

The government will also extend the Schengen Approved Destination Status visa that will

allow about 210,000 Chinese a year travelling to the Schengen area to do so via Britain without an additional UK visa.

While the changes are undoubtedly an improvement over the existing regime, the response was lukewarm from industry stakeholders. For instance, the Airport Operators Association argued that the new measures would be ineffective in cultivating additional air routes from developing countries where margins are particularly tight. Similarly, the International Airlines Group, which owns British Airways and Iberia, expressed dissatisfaction with the scope of the changes, indicating that other European countries attract five times more Chinese visitors than the UK does.

In a separate move, the UK and China have agreed to increase the number of authorised return flights between the two countries from 31 per week to 40. UK airlines will also be allowed to serve three more Chinese cities.


Regional Reports

Debra WardExecutive Consultant

Ottawa, Canada

CANADA REPORT

WestJet adds $25 checked baggage fee and is matched by Air CanadaWestJet has added a $25 first-checked bag fee on its lowest fare bucket, Econo, for all of its domestic and U.S. flights. Air Canada was quick to follow with fees charged in its own lowest fare category. The fee is expected to generate tens of millions of dollars in new revenue annually. U.S. carriers generated approximately $3.35 billion in 2013 from baggage fees. Both carriers are following Porter Airlines, which added its own $25 checked baggage fee in May 2014.

Porter looks for buyer for Billy Bishop passenger terminalPorter’s lounge-like passenger terminal at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport is up for sale as the airline looks to raise capital for its expanding aviation services. The plan would see Porter lease back the terminal, with a professional terminal operator handling the development of retail, concessions and overall passenger experiences. This announcement comes on the heels of a number of major expansions, including the creation of an $82 million passenger tunnel. Porter’s future plans, which include jet service and a runway expansion, are waiting on a decision from Toronto City Council to lift the Island Airport ban on jets.

More seats, more passengers: Canadian airlines flying highLoad factors outpaced new capacity in August, with both Air Canada and WestJet

reporting record numbers in August. Air Canada grew its system-wide capacity by 10.4% and increased traffic by 10.8%. WestJet’s capacity grew by 5.7% and its traffic by 7.4%. Both carriers reported total load factors of close to 90%. These numbers include both airlines’ new carrier brands – Air Canada’s low-cost Rouge and WestJet’s Encore service to smaller Canadian markets.

Canadian tourism sees best numbers in fourteen yearsCanadian inbound international tourism is seeming to echo the airlines’ strong numbers with some long-awaited good news of its own. Canada saw its largest number of overnight visitors for the month of June since 2000, which included a 10% gain in overnight air arrivals from the U.S, and double digit increases from China, India, Japan, Mexico and France. Year-to-date to June 2014, overnight inbound has grown by 7.7% overall from 2013. For outbound travel, year-to-date June 2014, overall trips by Canadians grew 2.2% to 16.7 million trips, while trips to the U.S. decreased slightly (-0.6%).

And they’re off: new parliamentary session signals early start to federal campaignEven though it is a year away, the October 19, 2015 federal election call already has all three national parties vying for public support. While aviation is not (yet) on the public radar, inside Ottawa there are a number of signals of opportunity for change.

The most significant is the statutory review of the Canada Transportation Act, which includes a specific mandate to review “how the vitality of the Canadian aviation sector, air connectivity, and Canada’s ability to attract visitors and transiting travellers can be maintained and augmented in light of the range of cost factors and competitive global markets”.

Under the leadership of the highly-respected David Emerson, the review is seen as a way to examine and make recommended changes on policies that have not been revisited in years, during a time when all national parties are paying attention.


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Doris MakDirector, Special Projects

Vancouver, Canada

ASIA-PACIFIC REPORT

Malaysia Airlines Begins Restructuring EffortMalaysia Airlines has revealed a restructuring plan to address its unrelenting financial difficulties. Backed by Khazanah, Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund, the restructuring plan involves cutting staff, removing unprofitable routes, and injecting USD 1.9 billion into the airline over three years. The company’s shares are being delisted by the end of the year as part of an offer by Khazanah – the 69 percent shareholder – for the remaining stock. The plan aims for the carrier to regain profitability by 2017, with relisting possible between then and 2019.

Malaysia Airlines has been losing business in China after Flight 370 disappeared on its way to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur in March of this year. No trace has been found of the Boeing 777 jet or the 239 passengers and crew on board. The airline’s difficulties were further exacerbated when, in July, Flight 17 crashed in eastern Ukraine, killing 298 people. The plane, also a Boeing 777, is believed to have been downed by a surface-to-air missile during a flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.

However, Malaysia’s economic woes have been persistent and predate the recent incidents. Despite having undergone several previous restructurings, the carrier still accumulated USD 2.6 billion of net adjusted losses from 2001 to 2014. In August, it reported a widening of quarterly losses to USD 49.9 million, compared with a net loss of USD 28.6 million in the same period a year ago.

One of Malaysia Airlines’ biggest problems is the size of its workforce – 19,500 staff – which is about 30 percent larger than that of

comparable airlines. In terms of available seat kilometers, a measure of capacity, the carrier provides 3.6 meters per employee, lagging behind Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines at 5.1 meters and 6.1 meters respectively. The Khazanah restructuring plan calls for 6,000 redundancies, more than a quarter of Malaysia Airlines’ existing workforce. Although the airline’s unions have limited staff cuts in the past, senior union officials have stated that they will support the restructuring plan.

Malaysia Airlines also plans to cut several routes from its network, especially in China and Europe. The carrier has faced intense regional competition from low-cost carriers such as AirAsia, as well as from Gulf carriers Emirates and Etihad on long-distance routes between Asia and Europe or the United States. The Malaysian market is particularly competitive, with between three and six carriers on most main routes and airline capacity growing at 10 percent a year, outstripping demand growth of 8 percent. On top of cutting long-haul routes, the Khazanah plan aims to narrow the cost gap between Malaysia Airline’s short-haul operations and the low-cost carriers from 42 percent to 15 percent.

Hong Kong Airlines to Apply for Dual-Currency IPOHong Kong Airlines will submit a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for a USD 500 million initial public offering that would be the city’s first dual-currency IPO. The airline, which provides short-haul flights to destinations including Bali and Beijing, is planning to offer half of the shares in the retail tranche of the IPO in renminbi-

denominated offerings. The retail portion will make up 10 percent of the total IPO. Investors who buy from the institutional tranche of the IPO, accounting for 90 percent of the deal, will be allotted some renminbi-denominated shares if there is sufficient demand for them.

Demand from institutional investors is likely to be limited, given that most invest in US dollars. Moreover, these investors typically have access to onshore renminbi and are more likely to want shares denominated in Hong Kong dollars. However, Hong Kong is home to nearly 60% of the Chinese currency held offshore and the IPO may garner interest from Hong Kong residents who can buy in the retail tranche. In the past, a lack of investment products and a long-held belief that renminibi would rise steadily has to date resulted in largely idle deposits of Chinese currency in Hong Kong. By the end of June, Chinese currency deposits in Hong Kong totalled CNY 925.9 billion (USD 150.4 billion).

The Hong Kong Airlines deal, expected to price in the fourth quarter, is also a marketing opportunity for the carrier, which is considering offering air miles or discount tickets as shareholder perks. The airline has a fleet of around 23 aircraft and is looking to list as it contends with high fuel prices and competition from bigger rival Cathay Pacific Airways. Funds raised from an IPO would go toward financing its plan to buy more aircraft.


partnership strategy” said Chris Avery, Vice-President, Network Planning, Alliances, and Corporate Development. This is the twelfth codeshare agreement for WestJet since 2011. These codeshares include American Airlines, Air France, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Japan Airlines, KLM, Korean Air and Qantas.

ANA and Lufthansa Cargo Obtain Antitrust Immunity for Japan-Europe Joint VentureLufthansa Cargo and ANA have received regulatory approval to begin a joint cargo shipping venture between Japan and Europe, beginning in 2015. Japan’s Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport granted ANA anti-trust immunity for the venture, with European regulators having already given consent. This allows ANA and Lufthansa tojointly manage activities such as network planning, pricing and sales for all affected routes between Japan and Europe.

Thai Regulator Grounds City Airways due to Maintenance IssuesThe Thailand Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) grounded City Airways after an audit of their maintenance program revealed safety violations. “We were concerned about passenger safety following a report that revealed that City Airways has not been following proper procedures during maintenance on their planes,” Santi Pawai,

Aviation New

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MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

World Health and Transportation Organizations Make Joint Statement in Relation to Ebola OutbreakThe Ebola outbreak in Africa began in Guinea in December of 2013. It has since spread to Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone, with more than 3,400 deaths. To address the risk of the virus spreading, several health and transportation organizations have formed a Travel and Transport Task Force in order to monitor the situation. These associations include the World Health Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization , the World Tourism Organization, the Airport Council International and the Internation Air Transport Association. Risk of transmission due to aviation travel is considered low as Ebola is not air-borne and a person is only infectious after they are displaying symptoms.

ASIA PACIFIC

China Airlines and WestJet Announce Codeshare AgreementWestJet and China Airlines announced they have entered into a codesharing agreement, allowing the carrier to begin selling WestJet-operated flights. “Just a few years ago, WestJet’s agreement with China Airlines laid the groundwork for future interline and code-share agreements as part of our airline

the director of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, told the Phuket Gazette. As a result the DCA also asked Hong Kong authorities to revoke City Airways’ Chek Lap Kok landing and parking rights. Stranded passengers were rerouted through R Airlines in order to complete their disrupted travel planes.

BOC Aviation Replenishes Fleet With Major Boeing OrderBank of China Aviation has expanded their fleet with an order of 82 new planes from Boeing. The order is comprised mainly of 737s, with 50 737-MAX and 30 737-300. The remaining two planes are 777-300ER which have already been leased. The order is scheduled to be filled between 2016 and 2021. BOC Aviation currently has 251 aircraft, 118 of which are Boeing.

Poor Procedures, Lack of Weather Information Frame Lion Air Bali CrashA Lion Air Boeing 737-800 crashed, short of the runway, at Bali’s Denpasar-Ngurah Rai Bali International Airport on April 13th, 2013. Indonesia’s National Transportation Safety Committee (NTSC) concluded that several errors were made by the pilot which, when combined with the poor weather, led to the crash. Specifically they found,1. The descent rate was too high, without a clear view of the runway.


participants and Live Different volunteers.

Air Canada to Launch Seasonal Flights from Vancouver to Osaka, JapanAir Canada Rouge will be launching non-stop flights between Vancouver International Airport and Osaka’s Kansai International Airport beginning May 1st, 2015. Flights will operate up to five times per week. The route will be flown by Boeing 767-300ER.

Bombardier’s CSeries Returns to Flight TestingBombardier announced that the CSeries will resume flight testing after a three month delay. An engine incident occurred, while on the ground, on May 29th, 2014. Since then Bombardier and Pratt and Whitney addressed the issue, modifying the engine’s oil lubrication system. The CSeries is on track to enter service in the second half of 2015.

Qantas Expands Canadian Codesharing DealQantas has struck a codesharing deal with WestJet to increase their access to the Canadian market. Qantas will connect with WestJet flights in Los Angeles and Honolulu, which then connect to Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary. The codeshare came into effect on October 15th.

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2. Not enough time to attempt a go-around.3. Meteorological service did not update pilots on heavy rain associated with a thunderstorm.4. Runway lights had not been turned on that afternoon.Fortunately, all 101 passengers and 7 crew survived the crash.

Vietnam Airlines Receives Approval for Initial Public OfferingVietnam Airlines, until now a publically operated airline, will make an initial public offer of 1,410,164,000 shares. Of these shares, 75% will be retained by the government and 25% open to investors. The government has also stated it will reduce its stake to 65% sometime in the future. As part of this deal, Vietnam Airlines will also have access to government-guaranteed loans, in accordance with the government’s resolutions and decrees. The IPO is scheduled for November 2014.

CANADA

WestJet Agrees to Three-year Partnership with Live DifferentWestJet has renewed their partnership with Live Different, a Canadian charity. Since 2012, WestJet and Live Different have run their Hero Holiday program in the community of Nuevo Renacer, located near Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Over the next three years volunteers will construct a minimum of five family homes per year in Nuevo Rencer. WestJet also provides flight discounts for Hero Holiday

EUROPE

airBaltic and British Airways Sign Codesharing DealBritish Airways and airBaltic have agreed to a codesharing deal, expanding both carriers’ networks. The deal connects Riga Latvia, airBaltic’s base of operations, to London England. Martin Gauss, Chief Executive Officer of airBaltic: “Riga to London is by far the most popular city-pair for travelers starting or finishing their journey in the Baltic region. We are very pleased to add British Airways, UK’s largest international airline and one of the world’s leading global premium carriers, to our growing family of code-share partners and jointly serve passengers on the busy Riga-London market.”

Aegean Increases A320 Order to Seven AircraftAegean Airlines has expanded their fleet with the order of seven A320s. This is an expansion of an existing deal for five planes which was delayed due to Greece’s economic turbulence. The seven planes are scheduled to be delivered between June 2015 and early 2016. Mr. Theodoros Vassilakis, Chairman of AEGEAN, stated: “AEGEAN’s decision to take delivery of 7 new Airbus A320, shows its commitment to invest once more in the ongoing qualitative growth of the aviation sector in the country.”

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FeatureAviation N

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Lufthansa Operations Return to Normal Following Pilots StrikeLufthansa experienced minimal disruption due to the pilot strike on September 5th. The strike’s duration was only six hours but forced the cancelation of 218 short and medium flights, impacting over 26,000 passengers. Lufthansa sent 29,000 text messages and emails to customers and re-booked more than 14,000 trips. Impressively there were no disruptions to flights the following Saturday due to the strike.

LATIN AMERICA

VivaAerobus Plans a Transborder PushOn September 11th Mexican airline VivaAerobus applied to begin service between Dallas and several Mexican cities, notably Guadalajara, Cancun, Monterrey and San Jose del Cabo. Currently VivaAerobus’ only tranborder route is between Monterrey and Houston Intercontinental. It has been speculated that the challenges faced in the domestic market are forcing Mexican airlines to seek other opportunities.

Embraer Announces Sale of 50 Aircraft Republic Airways Holdings Inc. announced a firm contract for 50 Embraer E175 Jets. This order, worth USD 2.1 billion, is in addition to the 47 firm and 47 option jets that Republic ordered in 2013. “We have long and successful relationships established with both Republic and United. This new contract further strengthens these important bonds,”

said Paulo Cesar Silva, President & CEO, Embraer Commercial Aviation.

UNITED STATES

Porter Joins JetBlue for Interline AgreementToronto-based Porter Airlines and New York-based JetBlue Airways have announced a comprehensive interline partnership, adding over a dozen new destinations for Porter passengers. “Porter’s connection with JetBlue opens up many new business and exciting leisure destinations from our convenient downtown Toronto location,” said Robert Deluce, president and CEO of Porter Airlines. Boston Logan International Airport will be the connecting point for these interline flights. Flights from Toronto City Airport are available for sale immediately, with these purchases eligible for travel as of November 3rd.

Atlanta Upgrades Ground Surveillance SuiteThe Atlanta Airport is upgrading their Saab-built Aerobahn surface management system. The improvements will include extended-range displays for incoming and outgoing aircraft, more surveillance options for ground vehicles and a manager specifically to reduce taxi times while de-icing thereby increasing airport throughput during winter operations. Since 2012 it is estimated the Aerobahn system has saved 36,400 hours of taxi time and prevented 64,400 hours of schedule delay.

Alcoa and Boeing Reveal Their Largest-Ever AgreementBoeing and Alcoa, the world’s third largest producer of aluminum, have signed a long term contract for aluminum sheet and plate products. The multiyear deal, estimated to be worth USD 1 billion, is the largest ever signed between the two companies. “This historic agreement not only continues the 35-year Alcoa-Boeing partnership, it will take our collaboration on next-generation metallic technologies even further,” said Klaus Kleinfeld, Alcoa Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The agreement makes Alcoa the sole supplier of wing skins on all of Boeing’s metallic structure in the aircraft. Alcoa produces wing ribs and other structural parts that will be used in every Boeing aircraft.

DOT Rejects NAI Request for Exemption While the long term flight status of Norwegian Air International (NAI) is being determined by the US Department of Transportation (DOT), NAI will not be flying in the U.S. before that decision. In a ruling on September 4th the DOT rejected the proposed exemption which would have allowed NAI to operate in the U.S. until a final ruling was given. The complication in this case is that NAI plans to operate out of Ireland, on a Irish air operating certificate. This would allow them to use Irish flight crews instead of U.S.or Norwegian. Opponents say NAI is dodging Norway’s stricter labour laws and is therefore violating the spirit of the U.S.-EU open skies agreement.

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AIRLINE DATA – ASIA PACIFICAsia-Pacific Airlines Release Traffic Figures for August 2014

Airline Traffic(RPKs – millions)

Capacity (ASKs – millions)

Load Factor

9,517

h3.0%

11,933

h0.3%

79.7%

h1.0 pts

8,588

h0.3%

10,332

i0.5%

83.1%

h0.7 pts

5,641

i0.1%

7,411

i0.2%

76.1%

h0.1 pts

10,314

h7.7%

11,833

h7.1%

87.2%

h0.5 pts

Source: Carrier traffic reports.

AIRLINE DATA – EUROPEEuropean Airlines Release Traffic Figures for August 2014

Notes: 1. Includes Lufthansa Passenger Airlines, SWISS, and Austrian Airlines. 2. Includes British Airways, Iberia (including Iberia Express), and Vueling. Vueling traffic is currently accounted as non-premium traffic.Source: Carrier traffic reports

Airline Traffic(RPKs – millions)

Capacity (ASKs – millions)

Load Factor

22,611

h3.1%

25,400

h1.8%

89.0%

h1.1pts

1

22,273

h5.1%

25,786

h4.0%

86.4%

h1.0 pts

220.053

h8.7%

23.676

h9.5%

84.7%

i0.6 pts


FeatureAviation Traffic

Airline Traffic(RPMs – millions)

Capacity (ASMs – millions)

Load Factor

Canada

6,645

h10.8%

7,398

h10.4%

89.8%

h0.3 pts

2,023

h7.4%

2,267

h5.7%

89.3%

h1.4 pts

United States

3,718

h6.7%

4,210

h4.9%

88.3%

h1.5 pts

19,539

h0.1%

22,379

h0.2%

87.3%

i0.1 pts

20,015

h0.0%

23,654

h1.1%

84.6%

i0.9 pts

20,034

h3.1%

22,866

h2.7%

87.6%

h0.3 pts

9,622

h4.9%

11,252

i0.2%

85.5%

h4.2 pts

630

h14.5%

708

h16.5%

88.9%

i1.6 pts

AIRLINE DATA – NORTH AMERICANorth American Carriers Release Traffic Figures for August 2014

Notes: 1. Represents the combined traffic results of American and US Airways. 2. Results include flights operated under contract carrier arrangements. 3. Total system includes scheduled service, fixed fee contract. Source: Carrier traffic reports

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Toronto Vancouver Montréal Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Winnipeg Halifax Victoria Kelowna Saskatoon Regina

2013

September +3.6% +3.1% +1.2% +4.9% +5.4% -1.1% -2.0% -1.0% +3.3% +5.2% +1.8% -1.2%

3rd Quarter +9.6% +4.3% +3.8% +5.2% +5.2% -0.6% -1.2% -0.5% +2.8% +5.3% +4.3% +3.6%

October +4.2% +2.2% +1.6% +4.8% +3.2% -1.3% -2.0% +2.2% +1.8% +6.0% +6.6% -0.2%

November +3.2% +2.6% +1.7% +6.2% +3.5% -1.5% -3.4% +1.3% +5.9% +5.3% +6.1% +6.6%

December +6.2% +7.1% +4.1% +8.0% +9.9% +1.6% +4.7% +6.3% +7.1% +7.1% +8.8% +6.3%

4th Quarter +4.6% +4.0% +2.5% +6.4% +5.6% -0.4% -0.2% +3.2% +4.8% +6.2% +7.2% +4.3%

Full Yearea +4.3% +2.1% +2.1% +4.8% +4.6% -2.3% -1.5% -0.7% +3.3% +3.9% +4.7% +3.5%

2014

January +3.7% +8.9% +3.1% +7.3% +5.8% -0.6% +0.2% +0.2% +5.2% +7.3% +6.2% +3.8%

February +6.5% +6.7% +2.7% +9.4% +4.8% -0.2% +2.2% +0.2% +5.4% +8.5% +6.6% +3.9%

March +2.0% +6.9% -2.8% +6.4% +5.0% -3.5% +0.8% -6.5% +3.7% +7.5% +5.5% +2.7%

1st Quarter +3.9% +7.5% +0.8% +7.6% +3.4% -1.5% +1.1% -2.6% +4.7% +7.8% +6.1% +3.5%

April +7.2% +9.3% +3.3% +9.7% +8.3% -0.1% +7.7% +0.3% +6.8% +11.0% +8.0% -0.2%

May +7.0% +10.0% +6.0% +6.5% +4.2% +0.5% N/A +5.6% +5.0% +6.5% +3.9% -0.2%

June +7.2% +7.8% +0.5% +4.6% +5.6% +5.0% +6.5% +3.9% +4.3% +6.1% +10.0% 4.3%

2nd Quarter +7.2% +9.0% +5.3% +8.0% +6.3% +1.3% +6.0% +3.5% +4.8% +7.8% +7.3% +2.6%

July +10.8% +7.3% +7.0% +6.4% +5.9% +2.0% n/a +3.7% +8.0% +5.7% +10.0% +6.2%

August +9.8% +8.0% +6.5% +5.9% +6.9% +0.5% n/a +6.0% +7.7% +6.4% +8.5% +2.8%

United States International

Atlanta Chicago LosAngeles

Dallas Denver New York JFK

London Heathrow

ParisCDG

Frankfurt Beijing Tokyo Narita

Mexico City

September -1.0% +1.7% +5.0% +3.8% -0.7% -2.3% +3.4% +1.0% +3.6% +1.7% +7.6% +8.6%

3rd Quarter -2.2% +1.3% +4.4% +4.0% -2.9% -1.5% +5.5% +1.4% +4.1% -0.2% +7.6% +8.4%

October -2.2% +4.2% +6.2% +4.7% -0.6% +6.2% +4.6% +3.4% +3.5% +4.5% +11.1% +7.1%

November -4.8% +1.6% +2.3% -1.1% -3.5% -3.4% +0.6% -0.1% +3.5% +0.9% +7.9% +8.3%

December +5.6% +8.1% +9.3% -0.5% +4.8% +4.6% +2.8% +3.5% +2.9% +0.2% +7.6% +8.4%

4th Quarter -0.6% +4.6% +6.0% +1.1% +0.2% +2.6% +2.7% +2.3% +3.3% +2.0% +8.9% +8.0%

Full Yearea -1.4% +1.2% +4.8% +3.1% -1.1% -0.5% +3.4% +0.7% +1.7% +2.1% +7.9% +6.9%

2014

January -3.5% -7.5% +6.8% +5.6% +0.8% -2.7% +3.8% +5.3% +3.4% +9.2% +10.6% +10.0%

February -4.1% +3.2% +6.5% +1.6% +2.2% +1.7% +1.0% +3.4% +1.8% +3.6% +4.7% +10.4%

March +2.2% +4.7% +4.3% +3.0% +2.0% -1.3% -2.8% +0.0% +0.9% -3.5% +7.9% +7.0%

1st Quarter -1.5% +0.3% +5.8% +3.5% +1.7% -0.9% +0.5% +2.8% +2.0% +2.9% +7.8% +9.1%

April +3.1% 11.5% +7.6 +4.7% +3.2 +13.6% +6.7% +7.4% +0.9% 2.1% +2.0% +12.4%

May +7.8% +5.1% +6.4% +4.8% +2.1% +4.8% +2.2% +3.2% +3.7% +0.6% +2.3% +11.8%

June +1.8% +5.6% +6.7% +6.1% +2.4% +5.3% +1.1% +6.1% +1.0% +.01% -3.2% +5.9%

2nd Quarter +4.2% +7.2% +6.9% +5.2% +2.6% +7.7% +3.2% +5.5% +1.9% +0.9% +0.3% +10.0%

July +3.6% +7.7% +6.3% +6.7% +2.2% +5.2% +0.5% +3.9% +2.3% +3.7% -1.7% +4.8%

August +2.6% +4.8% +6.1% +6.3% +2.2% +7.6% +1.3% +6.2% +5.4% +0.7% -1.9% +9.2%

AIRPORT TRAFFIC: SELECTED CANADIAN AIRPORTSSummary of Total Year-Over-Year Passenger Traffic Performance at Selected Canadian Airports

AIRPORT TRAFFIC: SELECTED U.S. & INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTSSummary of Total Year-Over-Year Passenger Traffic Performance at Selected Canadian Airports

2013

16 aviation intelligence report | InterVISTAS InterVISTAS | aviation intelligence report 16

FeatureInterVISTAS N

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THE INTERVISTAS GROUP CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE IN DELIVERING A DIVERSE RANGE OF CONSULTING PROJECTS

AROUND THE WORLD

Economic Impact Studies for Dublin and Cork Airports ■ InterVISTAS was commissioned to

prepare economic impact studies for Dublin Airport Authority on both Dublin and Cork Airports. These studies will also include catalytic and economic analysis of future scenarios.

Congratulations to San José, Costa Rica on New Southwest Airlines Service ■ We are delighted to announce that

our client, AERIS Costa Rica and the Juan Santamaria International Airport, will become the newest international destination for Southwest Airlines in March of 2015. San José becomes the first new destination announced by Southwest Airlines after its merger with AirTran Airways.

Commercial Airport Planning Services for Moscow Domodedovo Airport ■ InterVISTAS was awarded a prestigious

contract to provide commercial

airport planning services for Moscow Domodedovo Airport (DME). DME is the largest airport in Russia and we will work in conjunction with our partners at NACO and ACTM.

Israel Airports Authority Commercial Consultancy Contract Extension ■ We have received a two year extension

to our framework agreement for commercial consultancy services for Israel Airports Authority (IAA). The initial 3-year contract began in December 2011 and we have provided service on projects such as duty-free tender assistance, new Timna Airport planning review, advertising market research and tender assistance and landside commercial business planning. We look forward to continuing our relationship with IAA.

U.S. Surface Transportation Board Methodology Review and Analysis ■ InterVISTAS was selected by the U.S.

Surface Transportation Board (STB) to

complete a major review and analysis of the methodologies it uses to determine the reasonableness of railroad rates, evaluate alternative approaches, and review rate methodologies used by other regulatory agencies that oversee network industries. STB is the federal agency that provides broad economic regulatory oversight of commercial rail activities in the United States and we look forward to working with them on this important project.

Network Planning for Start Up Airline in South America ■ Recently we had a “turn-key solutions”

product launch featuring the signing of a 3-year contract to provide network planning for a start-up airline in South America.


Meet Mike Tretheway at the European Aviation Conference 2014 in Amsterdam, Netherlands on November 5 – 7, 2014.

InterVISTAS is a sponsor of the conference where world class speakers will present leading cases, alternated by lively debates among experts from academia and the aviation industry. This year’s conference is entitled Aviation Infrastructure Capacity: too much or too little?” and Mike will present the opening and closing remarks on Day 2 of the event held at Schiphol Airport.

Meet Nina Brooks at the ICAO Symposium on Innovation in Aviation Security.

Nina Brooks will participate in the first ever Symposium on Innovation in Aviation Security. The symposium is designed to help States, industry, academic researchers, and other AVSEC professionals explore how technology, tools and equipment can help States and industry meet both existing and future aviation security challenges.

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The symposium will be held in Montreal, Canada on October 21 - 23, 2014. Nina will co-host the Innovative Passenger Processing and Airport Infrastructure session on Day 2 of the conference and will present Mobile Technology - Possibilities and Pitfalls.

Nina Brooks co-hosts workshop at AVSEC World 2014Nina Brooks will co-host an interactive workshop at the AVESEC World 2014 Conference to be held in Washington, D.C. on October 27 - 29, 2014.

The conference will focus on creating a sustainable Aviation and Border Security System and look at the need for greater flexibility in regulation, recognition of measures between countries and the alignment of border and aviation security.

Mike Tretheway to participate in the OECD Rail Efficiency ForumMike Tretheway will participate in roundtable discussions at the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) - International Transport Forum on Measuring Railway Efficiency on November 18 – 19, 2014.The International Transport Forum at the OECD is an intergovernmental organisation with 54 member countries. It acts as a strategic think tank for transport policy and its goal is to help shape the transport policy agenda on a global level, and ensure that it contributes to economic growth,

environmental protection, social inclusion and the preservation of human life and well-being.The economic research, statistics collection and policy analysis and evidence-based insights on transport policy issues make the ITF an important think tank for policy-makers and the global transport community. Researchers deliver impartial analysis of the highest quality. Leading academics, regulators and government economists regularly engage in debate in the Research Centre’s roundtables on critical issues for transport policy.

This event is part of the think tank work that the International Transport Forum (ITF) provides and will review and discuss Measuring Railway Efficiency.


Staff Announcements

Dona Palmer, Administrative Assistant – Washington D.C. officeWe are pleased to announce that Dona Palmer joined InterVISTAS on October 1st as Administrative Assistant working from the Washington D.C. office. Dona will be providing support to the Finance and Accounting team. Dona has worked in a professional services firm environment and has an extensive background and broad range of experience on the accounting side (e.g. AP/AR/client billings/financial and project reporting), as well as administrative support and office management. Welcome Dona!

InterVISTAS welcomes the following new team members:

Nicholas Ross, Analyst - Vancouver officeWe are pleased to announce that Nicholas Ross joined InterVISTAS on September 2nd as an Analyst. Nicholas will support the Airline Strategies at Airports (ASA) and Airlines business lines with a focus on network and financial modelling. Nicholas graduated from the University of British Columbia with a Bachelor of Commerce in Finance. While completing his studies he participated in an exchange program that allowed him to do some of his course work at the Stockholm School of Economics. Welcome Nicholas!

InterVISTAS congratulates the following team members on their promotions:

Ken Lee, Senior Consultant – Market Intelligence – Vancouver officeKen lee was promoted from Consultant to Senior Consultant in our Market Intelligence business line in September. Congratulations Ken!

Mariel Koed, Senior Analyst – Boston officeWe are pleased to announce that Mariel Koed joined InterVISTAS on October 1st as Senior Analyst working from the Boston office. Mariel will work with the Airline Strategies at Airports (ASA) team and her support will be primarily focused on tourism development and task force development. Mariel graduated from the University of Massachusetts, Isenberg School of Management with a Bachelor of Science in Hospitality and Tourism Management with a concentration in Tourism, Convention and Event Planning courses. Welcome Mariel!


WASHINGTON

SÃO PAULO

OTTAWA BATH

THE HAGUE

SKOP JEBOSTON

VANCOUVER

InterVISTAS Consulting Group is a management consulting company with extensive expertise in aviation,

transportation and tourism. Our exceptional people have successfully delivered projects in over 70 countries around the world. We are committed to working collaboratively with our clients to apply vision and expertise to achieve results.

NACO, the Netherlands Airport Consultants, B.V. is one of the world’s leading independent airport consultancy and engineering firms offering integrated, full-service

planning and design services. With more than 60 years of experience, they have the expertise that is instrumental in solving the increasing complexity of developing today’s airports. NACO has assisted over 550 airports of all sizes in more than 100 countries with realizing their goals; goals that entail every aspect of airport design and development.

Royal HaskoningDHV combine global expertise with local knowledge to deliver a multidisciplinary range of professional engineering, consultancy and project management services in

aviation, buildings, energy, industry, infrastructure, maritime, mining, rural areas, urban areas and water.

royalhaskoningdhv.com

InterVISTAS’ Aviation Intelligence Report is a collection of information gathered from public sources, such as press releases, media articles, etc., information from confidential sources, and items heard on the street. Thus, some of the information is speculative and may not materialise.

To provide comments/feedback on the InterVISTAS’ Aviation Intelligence Report, please contact Paul Ouimet at [email protected] or 1-604-717-1800.

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InterVISTAS Aviation Intelligence Report October 2014

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