International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data

International Workshop on

Population Projectionsusing Census Data

14 – 16 January 2013Beijing, China

Session VII:Presentation of the results of projections

• Guidelines and tools for the preparation of results

• Presentation of country projections by participants

How to present the results of population projections

• General guidelines – how to get the message cross

• Preparing a report• Visual aids• Presentation Media

• Large amounts of data• Published in a number of different ways – A press release– An executive summary – A full report, sometimes with a number of annexes.

Population Projection – Presenting Results

Getting the message cross

• Who is your target audience?

General public

Government

expertsStati

stics Press release

Technical report

Others

???

Getting the Message Cross

• Why should my audience want to know/read about this?– Internet age, short attention span– The “snack culture”

Telling a Statistical Story

• Is there a story?– What have you found?– How does it impact daily life?– Stories:• Social security not sustainable for the long term• World population growth will occur in urban areas

– Non-stories:X The report is published today...X Population projection is prepared …

Telling a Statistical Story

• Compelling headlines– The highest since, the lowest since …– Something new– The first time, a record, a continuing trend– Examples:• Gasoline prices hit 10-year high• Crime down for a third year in a row• July oil prices levelled off in August

Compelling Headlines

Telling a Statistical Story

• Write like a journalist – the ‘inverted’ pyramid

Main findings

Details about the study

Data, assumptions, analysis

Introduction, purpose of study

Data, assumptions, analysis

Conclusions/findings

Right-side-up Inverted

Telling a Statistical Story

• Make the number “stick”– Don’t peel off the onion, get to the point

– Avoid proportions in bracket

• Make the number “stick” (cont.)– Avoid changing denominators

– Reduce big numbers to understandable levels

Technical Report - Elements

• Title page• Table of contents• Motivation and objectives• Data source and assumptions• Findings • Conclusions and recommendations

Technical Report - Canada

Technical Report - Canada

• Charts• Maps• Other?

Visual Aids

Source: US Census Bureau

Explaining Assumptions

Projected vs Observed

Projections by scenario

Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

Showing the ContrastPopulation of Europe, Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa (millions)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Female Male

Age

Pyramid

Pyramid - 2 in 1

Pyramid - Animated

Thematic Maps

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York 2012

Source: http://www.planning.sa.gov.au/instantatlas/ageingatlas/atlas.html

Interactive Maps

• Printed documents• Online presence• PowerPoint• Movies (YouTube, etc.)• Blogs• Social media

Presenting results - Media

Presentation of country projection by participants

Thank you