International Tourism – A General Overview

International Tourism – A General Overview

World Tourism Organization

www.world-tourism.org

International TourismMarket Size

International Tourist Arrivals

689 million(2001 figure)

Total Receipts:US$477 billion Per Arrival: US$ 680

(2000 figure)

Share in world total (%)

Asia and the P acific

18%

Other82%

Share in world total (%)

Europe

58%

Other

42%

International tourist arrivals by region

2000 2001Change (%) Change (%) Estimate

growth

(million) 2000/1999 1990-2000 2001*/2000 (million)

World 697.5 7.0 4.3 -1.3 688.5

Africa 27.6 4.3 6.3 3.2 28.5

Americas 128.3 5.0 3.3 -7.0 119.3

East Asia and the Pacific 110.6 14.3 7.3 3.8 114.9

Europe 403.2 5.7 3.6 -0.7 400.5

Middle East 21.2 12.3 9.0 -8.8 19.4

South Asia 6.4 11.2 7.4 -6.4 6.0

Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) © (Data as collected by WTO January 2001)

Llegadas de turistas internacionales por regiones en 2001

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

World Africa Americas East Asiaand thePacif ic

Europe MiddleEast

SouthAsia

% v

aria

ción

Llegadas de turistas internacionales por regiones en 2001

7.0

-1.3-2

-1

0

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

1%

var

iaci

ón

International Tourism stalls in 2001

International Tourist Arrivals(volume)

552586 610 628 652

698 689

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001*

(millio

n)

International Tourist Arrivals(% change)

6.1

4.1

3.03.7

7.0

-1.3-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 00/99 01*/00

(% c

hang

e)

World’s Top five tourism destinations

International Tourist ArrivalsRank 2000 Change (%) est. 2001 Market

(million) 2001*/2000 (million) Share (%)

1 France 75.6 1.2 76.5 11.1

2 Spain 47.9 3.4 49.5 7.2

3 United States 50.9 -12.6 44.5 6.5

4 Italy 41.2 -5.0 39.1 5.7

5 China 31.2 6.2 33.2 4.8

Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) © (Data as collected by WTO January 2001)

First decrease in 2 decades

Growth of World Real GDP & international Tourist Arrivals

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

% c

ha

ng

e o

ve

r p

rev

iou

s y

ea

r

Tourist Arrivals

Average 1975-2000

echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel Lebanon

Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia

Asian Financial Crisis

World Tourism in 2001characterized by:

11 September attacks on the United

States and the following response

World Tourism in 2001characterized by:

• Global economic downturn affecting all

major economies at same time

Economic downturn already manifest before 11 September

International Tourist Arrivals - Regional Trends

2.8

9.9

6.1

1.7 1.20.3 0.3

9.0

3.3

7.4

3.6

6.3

4.3

7.35.7

11.2

5.0

12.3

4.3

14.3

7.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

World East Asia and

the Pacific

Africa Europe South Asia Americas Middle East

% c

hang

e

1990-2000 2000/1999 Jan.-Aug. 2001*

Sharp contrast to 20002000 exceptional year for tourism: overall positive conditions • strong world economy• relative calm political situation• many big events: millennium celebration,

Holy Year, Olympic Games, European championship soccer, Expo 2000 Hannover

• pent-up demand (in particular long-haul) after Kosovo conflict in 1999 and ‘millennium fear’

Impact of the 11 September attacksInternational Tourist Arrivals - Regional Trends

2.8

9.96.1

1.7 1.2 0.3 0.3

-10.9 -10.3

-3.5-6.2

-24 -24

-30.2

-1.3

3.8 3.2

-0.7

-6.4 -7-8.8

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

World East Asia and the

Pacific

Africa Europe South Asia Americas Middle East

% c

hang

e

Jan.-Aug. 2001* Sept.-Dec. 2001* 2001* all year

▲Destinations / segments relatively less affected or that even benefited

▲ more domestic than international

▲ travel by car, coach, train

▲ rural tourism

▲ ski resorts

▲ camping

▲ bed and breakfast

What is the Current Situation?

• January – February 2002 – staggered recovery

• Long haul - slower as a whole

• But package bookings in UK and Germany - good

• BA, Hong Kong, Europe, USA

• Light at end of tunnel

Redistribution during Recovery

▼ Worst hit:

national airlines/cruises/MICE/upmarket city hotels/large T.O.

▲ Quiet beneficiary:

country inns,specialised tour operators, budget airlines, sports and culture tourism

What has changed?

▲ cost

▲ duration

▲ booking habits

▲ motivation

▲ product/promotion

Short-term forecast

• Pick up late 2002 and early 2003

• Vigorous revival in 2003

Most likely scenario 2002:Mirror image of 2001

International Tourist Arrivals

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d

% c

hang

e ov

er s

ame

mon

th p

revi

ous

year

Source: WTO

Observed evolution2001

Expected evolution2002

Short-term forecast

The bright spots:

• Republic of Korea

• China

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mil

lio

n

South AsiaMiddle EastAfricaEast Asia/PacificAmericasEurope

Actual Forecasts

Tourist Arrivals by Receiving Region, 1950- 2020

Tourist arrivals(Million)

Tourism receipts(US$ Billion)

1995 2020 1995 2020

455

1,561

565

Tourism 2020 Vision - Forecasts

2,000

World’s Top Destinations 2020

1 China2 France3 United States4 Spain5 Hong Kong (China)6 United Kingdom7 Italy8 Mexico9 Russian Fed.10 Czech Rep.

Country

Tourist arrivals(Million)

7.82.33.52.67.13.42.13.68.54.0

%growth rate p.a.

1995-2020

8.36.86.64.73.63.43.43.13.12.7

Marketshare (%)

130106102 74 57 54 53 49 48 44