INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY 15 -17 November 2017 FAO Headquarters, Rome Italy Technological developments Government programs and insurance Farm production practices Farm financial management
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCEINTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY Domestic support and price stabilization •Moderate support
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INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
INTERNATIONAL
TECHNICAL CONFERENCE
ON CLIMATE CHANGE,
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
AND FOOD SECURITY
15 -17 November 2017
FAO Headquarters, Rome Italy
Technological developments
Government programs and insurance
Farm production practices
Farm financial management
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
The Market of Maize in Eastern and Southern
Africa in the Context of Climate Change
Lukas Kornher
Post-Doctoral Researcher/Department of Food Economics and Food Policy,
University of Kiel
17 November 2017
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Indroduction
• Climate change (CC) is expected to have severe consquences on
food security in Eastern and Southern Africa (great importance of
single crop maize)
• The policy environment (national reserves, trade policies, etc.) is
important to address the challenges of CC
• Climate smart agriculture and adaptation measures are necessary
to improve food security and resilience to CC
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Reduction of maize yields between
6 and 13% by 2090
• Frequency of extreme weather
events increases probability of
harvest failures
• Additional uncertainty about impact
of CC on land degradation
Food Availability
Chart title
Source: Robertson (2015).
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Projected price increases and erosion
of agricultural incomes (yield
reduction) put poor households at risk
• Increasing food market volatility (prices
and production)
• Higher temperature enhances
transmission of vector borne diseases
and put nutrition security under risk
(importance of fish consumption)
Accessibility, stability, utilization
Budget share Income share
Tanzania 15.7% 18.2%
Malawi 20.9% 21.3%
Zambia 15.8% 12.0%
Uganda 6.0% 5.5%
Ethiopia 11.8% 8.5%
Source: Chauvin et al. (2017) based on LSMS data.
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Structural trade deficit in the region
which is expected to increase in
future
• Intra-regional market integration
often interrupted by export
restrictions
• Markets characterized by substantial
interventions through price
stabilization programs/ strategic
reserves
Maize market in the region
Population
(2013)
Production
(2013)
Average trade
balance (2010-
2013)
Burundi 9.6 million 162,000 -23,797
Ethiopia 94.9 million 6,500,000 2,747
Kenya 44.8 million 3,600,000 -197,360
Malawi 16.5 million 3,600,000 75,094
Mozambique 26.4 million 1,200,000 -96,157
Rwanda 11.1 million 670,000 -82,665
Somalia 13.1 million 150,000 69,353
Tanzania 50.6 million 5,400,000 11,636
Uganda 37.5 million 2,700,000 106,090
Zambia 15.2 million 2,500,000 359,841
Zimbabwe 15.1 million 860,000 -342,076
Total Region 335 million 27,342,000 -117,294
Source: FAOSTAT (2017).
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Domestic support and price stabilization
• Moderate support can improve food
security (Magrini et al., 2017)
• Interventions set wrong incentives
and keep inefficient producers in the
market
• Market uncertainty through
interventions
• Financial resources are tied and
necessary investments are blocked
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8Nom
inal A
sssis
tance
Coeff
icie
nt
(NA
C)
Annual yield growth in %
Source: MAFAP (2017) and FAOSTAT (2017).
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Regional trade integration could
benefit all countries in the region
• Discretionary export policies
generate market uncertainty, but
limited success in shielding
domestic prices (Portreous, 2017)
• Trade as stimulus for increased
efficiency and competitiveness of
industries (distributional effects)
Trade integration/policies
Source: FAOSTAT (2017).
12.1%
20.3%
13.1%
26.6%
22.1%
60.9%
37.2% 37.3%
20.3%
27.0%
43.7%
9.0%
VARI ABI L I TY I N M AI ZE PRO DUCTI ON ( CO EFFIC IENT O F VARI ATI O N, 2 0 0 0 - 2014)
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Evaluation of current policies in preparation for CC
Food security dimension
Availability Access Stability
Price stabilization program -No guarantee for greater food
availability through higher returns
-Availability may even decline as
market distortions create
inefficiencies
-Reduction of market prices during
crises improves access for
consumers
-General price increase benefits
wealthier households
-Substantial contribution to greater
stability of the food system
Emergency food reserve -Short-term increase of availability in
the market by food distribution
-Subsidized food distribution to the
vulnerable improves market access
-Reduction of instability in emergency
situation
Domestic support -Increase in production driven by
expansion of production but not by
productivity gains
-Improvement in accessibility in the
short-run, but inefficient production
may increase prices in the long-run
-No direct impact
Trade
Policies -Short-term increase of availability
through export restrictions; increasing
unpredictability
-If domestic prices can be insulated
positive, if not no effect
-Stability of domestic markets through
anti-cyclical policies, but negative
externalities; increasing
unpredictability
Integration -Export prospects increase efficiency
and can improve availability
-Net buyers benefit in all countries,
net sellers lose if production gets
unprofitable
-Enhanced price and supply stability
through imports and exports
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Mitigation
• Need to limit GHG emissions
• To what extent do regional
policies help?
Adaptation
• Technological developments
• Government programs and
insurance
• Farm production practices
• Farm financial management
Mitigation and adaptation
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA)
• Productivity gains
• Adaptation
• Mitigation
Innovative approaches
• Vertical integration and
commercialization
• Financial services
Market access and development
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
Conservation agriculture
• Minimum tillage, permanent
soil cover, and crop rotation
• Productivity gains, soil and
water conservation, mitigation?
• Successful expansion in the
region (Kassam et al., 2015),
but still large potential
Agroforestry
• Intercropping of crops and
trees/shrubs
• Productivity gains, income
diversification, soil and nutrient
conservation, increase of carbon
sequestration through increased
biomass
CSA - Examples
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
• Policy interventions need to be clearly defined/transparent and must
not promote inefficient resource use
• Support for sustainable intensification, promotion of investment in
CSA through tenure security, knowledge diffusion, etc.
• Market development as adaptation strategy
• No one policy will be able to address the varied aspects of CC and
the impacts on food security
Need for a set of complementary policies
Conclusions
INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL CONFERENCE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY
THANK YOU
For further information please contact Lukas Kornher