International Political Economy Essay - the 21st century will be China_s century.

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William Archer C10341695

Carl Gaffney C10368709

Ciarán Hanton C10389971

Class: DT555/4

Module: BUS4005

Title: The 21st century will be China’s century, discuss.

“I hereby certify that this material, which I now submit for assessment for International

Political Economy, is entirely the work of the following students, Ciarán Hanton, Carl

Gaffney and William Archer has not been submitted for assessment for any academic

purpose other than this one. All sources consulted are appropriately referenced according

to the DIT Business Style Guide.”

Signed: ____________________________ Date: _________

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Table of Contents Page

1. Introduction 4

2. Demographics 4

3. Energy and Industries 6

4. Politics 8

5. Economic Policies 10

6. Simultaneous Fall of the West and the Rise of China 12

7. How China Plans to Sustain Growth 13

8. Conclusion 16

9. References 17

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Introduction

At this time of global economic uncertainty, this topic is becoming increasingly more relevant. The

undeniable growth of wealth and power in China has put this question on the mind of economists all

over the world.

It is a difficult issue to discuss as there is no concrete yes or no outcome. The purpose of this essay is

to give our opinion on the topic based on research we have done. We will discuss how it is very

much possible that the 21st century could belong to China, along with all of the factors that could in

fact hold the country back from doing so.

China’s Demographics

Closely associated to the political situation in China, is its issue of demographics.

China’s economic rise can be attributed to its massive population of 1.3 Billion. With such a large and

relatively cheap labour force, 816,584,623 in 2011, available to them, the Chinese have managed to

develop their economy and bring it to the brink of the world’s Hegemon (The World Bank 1 2013).

During the late 1970’s China had masse internal migration from the rural area’s to the major cities

on the coast, about 160,000,000 or 12% of the population making this move, and a rapidly growing

population. A prime example is the coastal city of Shenzen, a town of only a few thousand in 1978,

and by 2011 had a population of over 10 million (Shenzen government online).So in 1979 the one

child policy was introduced, permitting couples to only bare one child, there was of course

exceptions for couples living in rural areas and ethnic communities (China’s One Child Policy).

When adopting the one child plan, they Chinese took the view of having the 4-2-1 model (Tsintolas,

Alexa 2013).This expects there to be 4 grandparents, 2 parents and 1 child in a household, referred

to as the core family. However we have found in our research that this policy could have a negative

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effect in the future on the Chinese economy. We believe that this model could create a high

dependency ratio in China, already cases have been seen of the elderly been forced into social care

as sons and daughters move abroad or migrate to elsewhere in China.

By 2030, we believe that China will have a worker to elderly person ratio of about 23% and by 2050

31% of the population will be either retired or eligible to retire, putting more strain on the ever

decreasing workforce. China’s population is expected to peak at about 1.5 billion people by 2040 and

after which point will begin to decline (Godley, Jane and Tyers, Rod 2006) (China Daily 2006) (The

World Bank 4). Already China has a fertility ratio of about 1.7, with the minimum fertility ratio for

sustaining a growing economy being 2.11. Depriving it of the large and relatively cheap labour force

which has driven it to where it is now (The importance of being 2.11) (The World Bank).

However in the past few weeks China has agreed to alter the one child policy by allowing families to

have a second child if one of the parents has no siblings (NDTV 2013).This poses us the question, is it

already too late for China to turn this around?

We think despite the facts that we have presented above, it is not too late for China. The reasons for

this are 2 resources that China is yet to take advantage of, immigration and an increase in the

retirement age. China has a history of undefined immigration laws, with the government doing very

little to promote clarity but rather clamping down on illegal immigration with hefty fines and

deportation.

However China has begun to make progress in this direction by creating new laws, we wouldn’t go as

far to say that China is promoting immigration now but they are definitely seeking job applicants in

specific fields. An example being the new “R” visa category has been created to secure talents that

are badly needed. (China economic review 2013)

Even though evidence presents a rocky ship for the Chinese in terms of demographics over the next

century, history has shown us that immigration can build and maintain a strong society. We only

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have to look at America in the late 1800’s and the early 1900’s with mass immigration from Europe

and more recently France after WW2, where immigration from north and central Africa helped

rebuild a country on its knee’s.

In terms of retirement, The current age is 60 for men and 55 for women, although this law was

passed when life expectancy was only 50, with that now at 71 years of age, the increase in the

retirement age, which is expected to be seen, and we believe will increase the size of the labour

force and therefore bridge the gap of the high dependency in China (Godley, Jane and Tyers, Rod

2006).

With a country the size of China, demographics play’s a crucial part in its success and in its future.

Particularly in China’s case as a large labour force has brought it to where it resides now. The

extreme size of China in terms of its population and geographically makes it a nightmare to govern.

However evidence suggests that the CCP has done a more than adequate job so far and we fully

expect China to deal efficiently with any demographical threats to its continued growth and success.

Energy and Industries in China

Chinas largest industries include textiles, electronics and communications, non-metal mineral

products, and electric equipment and machinery. (Yi Lu et al. 2013) China has an excellent advantage

on its exporting competitors regarding its status as a low-wage-country. Bernard, Jensen, and Schott

(2006) found that over 1977-1997 manufacturing plants more exposed to low-wage-country imports

grew more slowly and were more likely to exit. This puts China in a strong position facing its biggest

international competitor, the United States. By 2007, China accounted for over 30% of US imports in

28 industries including apparel, textiles, and electrical appliances. (Autor, Dorn, Hanson 2013)

If China were to allow state-backed industries such as the telecommunications industry to open up

to private investors, then private investors could bring a new approach and fresh innovation to the

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table, further increasing Chinas lead in many markets. Economists think that the dominance of the

state thwarts private-sector industries and leads to inefficiency and poor service. (Liyan Qi, 2013)

China’s trade with Africa is also on the rise. According to Chinese Statistical Yearbooks, between

1990 and 2010, Chinese exports to the continent went from a value of $1297 million to $59,954

million. While Chinese imports from Africa also rose substantially from $368 million to $67,092

million. (He, 2013)

Trade between the two parties is very important for both. China’s cheap commodities are playing an

important role in bringing down inflation in African countries, while the high demand for African

exports (in particular – natural resources) is helping to improve the terms on which Africa trades,

where the reduction of trade barriers in China is also beneficial to Africa. (He 2013)

China’s energy

For the most part, China relies on thermal power for the production of electricity. China produced

over 80% of its electricity using thermal power in 2011. (Interfax 2012) However the country is

taking steps in the right direction to cut down their reliance on this somewhat “dirty” method of

generating power. The reduction of the ratio of small-scale thermal plants to large scale plants in

recent years has greatly increased the efficiency of electricity production, while saving the country

over 300 million tons of coal between 2005 and 2010. (Interfax 2012) Below is a breakdown of

Chinas energy production.

Sector Power output (TWh) Y-o-y growth (%)

Thermal power 3,975 14.07

Hydropower 662.6 -3.52

Nuclear power 87.4 16.95

Wind power 73.2 48.16

Total 4,721 11.68

[China Energy Weekly, 29 June 2012]

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The country is taking steps in the right direction to “clean up” its energy production as coal

consumption in recent years in order to fuel Chinas every growing industries has greatly polluted

Chinas air.

Nuclear Power

China aims to have a nuclear capacity of 70GW by 2020. (Interfax 2013) A shift to nuclear power is

not only a more efficient way to produce energy, but it’s also more sustainable, better for the

environment as it vastly reduces the country’s total CO2 output, but it also increases expenditure

within Chinas own economy as over 80% of the parts used in the production of power plants are

produced locally. (Interfax 2013) The production of nuclear power part components also indicates

that the country is progressing well in terms of manufacturing advanced technology.

The production of cleaner, more sustainable energy is vital for China. The reliance on fuel in recent

years has had a detrimental effect on the country’s air, however as we have previously mentioned,

China is taking steps in the right direction to reduce the reliance on coal. This is making, and will

continue to make China a more viable option for FDI opportunities with the availability of cleaner,

cheaper energy.

Politics in China

When asking the question will the 21st century be China’s century, political reform has to be one of

the most vital factors. China has accomplished a lot with such a new and un-tested political regime,

but any alterations or lack of alterations could upset the Chinese economy or the Chinese people.

The political structure and system in China is the first of its kind, stated in the Chinese constitution it

is described as “The socialist system led by the working class and based on the alliance of the

workers and farmers is the fundamental system of the People’s Republic of China” and defines itself

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as “the organizational principle for the state organs is democratic centralism” (China Internet

information centre 1949).

It is described as a state back capitalist economy which allows the relinquish control over production

while still remaining in control of its economic and political issues. There is only one party in power,

the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with about 70 million members and rules through the National

Party Congress (NPC) (Marketline 2013).

The head of state is the president but it remains a position of very little power in China. However the

Chinese government is very large with many positions in different organizations, with many

prominent members of CCP holding a position within the NCP also (BBC News). Although, it is

understood that power rests within the high-ranking cadres of the CCP. The party enjoys absolute

leadership over the central/local governmental agencies, courts, and national/local people’s

congress (Hou, Xiaoyang 2004).

The CCP is an unchallenged power that dominates Chinese society. They set up four levels of

government agencies (central, provincial, county, and township/villages), and placed Party units

within each of the government agencies, therefore the CCP assures its full control of the government

operation (BBC News). Although, without a multi-party election system, China has still established a

mechanism for regularly refreshing its ranks of policy makers, by involving more than 400 high

ranking party officials in voting at a primary election for candidates for the leadership of the 17th

party congress.

After WW2 China became a purely communist state (China Internet information centre 1949).

However, political reforms in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s opened itself up to some capitalism’s

ideology. It is evident to us that the current political reforms made by China have been a huge

success, as the country moves ever closer to being the world’s Hegemon (The World Bank 1). It has

slowly moved itself away from its communist origins, moved it towards an “open door” economy in

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1986, focused on earning money and implementing schemes to further the development of the

Chinese state (Makertline 2013).

We believe that future political reform could be a stumbling block for the Chinese but it is clear that

they have learned from their own, the USSR’s and more recently the West’s past mistakes. However

they must remain prudent in the face of possible threats that could de-rail the Chinese express.

Most notably, as the Communist regime continues to leave its origins of Marxism and Leninism and

embrace State-Backed Capitalism. Any internal unrest from inside the party itself would have to be

squashed. The government must also tread carefully as with economic growth, people seek more

freedom and control of decisions made on their behalf. This has already been seen in some Chinese

protesting for more freedom of speech (Tang, Didi).

However we believe this to be unlikely, in the case of China, as more than ¾ of the population were

satisfied with the government and their standard of living in the in 2008. (O’Neil, Brendan 2008)

The political situation will always remain the biggest question in determining if China will own this

coming century, as it is a new and untested form of government/economy but at this moment in

time, we believe figures, facts and opinions would suggest a positive times ahead for China and the

CCP.

Economic policies

China in the past

Over the course of 30 years, China moved from a centrally planned economy, to a more open,

market orientated socialist economy. (Mengkui W.2004) China did not rely on the markets to

allocate resources, nor was competition very fair as state-owned enterprises were in the thousands,

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and access to capital was limited for privately owned small and medium enterprises. (Hu Y., Li X.,

Zhang C. (2013))

It was not easy, and the Chinese met many difficulties along the way. There are of course many

obstacles that the Chinese must still try to overcome such as fiscal reform, the removal of internal

barriers to the markets to allow fair competition and free consumer choice. Not forgetting China’s

reliance on coal to fuel its industries, and the many environmental issues the country faces. The

restructuring of the Chinese economy means that China has become the world’s second largest

economy, next to the United States, with many Chinese industries leading international

manufacturing such as telecommunications and electronics industries. With an average annual GDP

growth of 13% (national bureau of statistics) over the past 10 years, China has the fastest growing

economy in the world, and if China’s economy continues to grow steadily it will overtake the US as

the largest economy in the world within the next decade. (Sedghi A. 2012)

China looks to the future

A new, competitive, market-driven economy with fewer barriers to trade will allow foreign

companies with technological know-how access to the sea of opportunities that await them in China

in areas such as high value-added manufacturing, electronics, pharmaceuticals and clean energy.

At the third plenum of the Communist Party of China’s 18th Central Committee in November 2013,

the party agreed that in order to achieve sustainable, stable growth, the country should lower its

growth expectations to around 7.5%, as opposed to the much higher 10 year average of 13%. (Hu Y.,

Li X., Zhang C. (2013)) The new expectation is all part of the plan to achieve good quality economic

growth by using a more market-driven economy to allocate resources. The market-driven economy

will involve the freeing up of interest rates, the removal of certain internal barriers which currently

make it difficult for SME owners to find capital, and other forms of financial liberalisation.

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An economy that grows through its exports can be seen as being strong as it shows the country’s

ability to compete on an international level. In the most recent years, Chinese exports may have

taken a hit as a result of the European and American economic crashes.

It’s important to note however that a country cannot expect to increase its GDP perpetually year on

year by relying on exports alone. The country will sooner or later have to look at advancing its

technologies and try to become innovators in the markets. Although the United States may not

produce quite as many goods as China does, it still produces more specialised goods such as arms

and aircraft, and is more technologically advanced and able than Chinese manufacturers.

There are some who believe however, that China’s GDP are far over-exaggerated and estimate that

China’s actual GDP growth between 1997 and 2001 was but a third of official claims (GDP growth of

24.7%). (Rawski, 2001)

Even if Chinese GDP statistics are exaggerated, there is no denying the country’s big presence on

international markets, according to statistics from countries other than China. By 2007, China was

accountable for over 30% of US imports in 28 industries, including apparel, textiles, furniture, leather

goods, electrical appliances, and jewellery. (Autor, Dorn, Hanson, 2013)

The simultaneous downfall of the west and the rise of China

Is the US century over, and are they losing power as the dominant hegemon?

How the US first came to be hegemon:

The term hegemon refers to the largest economic power in the world and the theory of hegemonial

stability states that the world system is likely to be more stable if there is one main state in control

as the dominant hegemon. It is commonly stated that the 19th century belonged to Great Britain,

and from the end of World War 2 until now has been referred to as the American century. The

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recent economic crisis in America and the western world brings forward the question, will the US

lose power as the dominant hegemon, and if so who will be its successor?

The first half of the 20th century was a struggle between Germany and the US to see who would

replace Great Britain. There were many factors that lead to the US coming out on top, such as the

defeat of the Germans in WW2 and the US using its unrivalled military power to retain an eroding

hegemony (Shor, 2011). Economic and physical factors also played a role: ‘The dynamism and new

arena of the US market put it in a much better place than Germany to supersede the wealth and

market denomination of England’. This dynamism was strongly attributed to its government’s policy

of closing its domestic market to the importing of foreign good’s but leaving it open to the influx of

foreign labour and capital. As for the geographical location of the US, it was not in close proximity to

where most of the war took place in central Europe. This greatly increased its chances of economic

stability, ‘…the insularity of the continent shielded it from the systemic chaos and World Wars…’

Although the country was a big player in the Second World War, its own country was shielded by the

destruction as the majority of the fighting was done elsewhere. (Wilson, 2011).

As will be mentioned in the next section, the economic power of the US is rapidly declining, and their

debt is continuously going up. This comes at a time when there are other developing nations who

are seeing a huge boost in their economies. China collectively with other major growing economies,

most notably India, are seen as two potential hegemonic challengers. Apart from its current

relentless economic growth, factors that improve China’s chances becoming the hegemonic leader

include the strengthening of their military force. They have been slowly building on it and spending

an increasingly high percentage of their GDP on it. The thought that China could match the US from

a military point of view threatens one of the US main strengths. Another factor is (as the figures in

our demographics section shows), the sheer size of China’s population and work force, and that

alone is an abominable force to reckon with. For example, on a global scale they have had a

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comparative advantage for providing multi-national companies with cheap labour, a factor that

resulted in a huge amount of foreign investment into China. (Duncan J., 2009)

Why the US economy began its decline

After continuous substantial growth of the US economy, 2008 marked the beginning of the

economic crisis in America. Through every fault of their own, the downfall was sparked by the

collapse of the mortgage market. The extraordinary rise in prices on the housing market, mortgage

backed securities and the use of short-term funding left the country’s financial institutions extremely

vulnerable. Although the eventual crisis that was to follow, the expansion of these markets was

almost inevitable. All parties involved had tunnel-vision and a sense of myopia, as they were all

benefitting from the risky loans and sub-prime lending. This colossal crisis of the world’s largest

economic power was one of the main causes and contributors to a global economic crisis. (US

Council of Economic Advisors, 2009). The US debt continues to grow day by day, and has recently

surpassed $17 trillion (USdebtclock.org, 2013).

How the Chinese economy began its rise:

Since the state control of all productive assets in 1978, the Chinese economy has seen an enormous,

relatively steady boost in its economy. Although its accumulation of capital has been extremely

significant, according to studies by an IMF research team, it is the Chinese mentality and increase of

productivity that has been the driving factor in its economic growth. They have marked ‘… a

departure from the traditional view of development in which capital investment takes the lead.’ (Hu

Z., Khan M.S., 1997).

Another fundamental factor that has and will positively impact the economy of China was the

gradual liberalization of their economy, and opening up to foreign direct investment (FDI). Factors

that affect the amount of FDI into a country include the size of the country’s GDP (showing its

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economic activity), and the country’s infrastructure (which will both be mentioned below). (Iqbal Z.,

Masood I., Ramzan M., 2013)

GDP: According to the IMF, China is now the no.2 economic power in the world, and they predict

that they could surpass the US to the no.1 spot as early as 2016. It predicts that the GDP of China

based on purchasing power parity (PPP) at the beginning of 2017 could be 20,440.875 billion dollars

in comparison to 20,077.908 for the US. (IMF, 2013). This shows a major shift of power between the

two countries, and is an indication of how powerful China is going may become as a result of their

continuous growth.

How China plans to sustain its growth

From the research that we have done, it is clear that for China to sustain growth, the building of

infrastructure both domestically and abroad are key factors of its success.

Domestic infrastructure investment: China is the world leader of investing in infrastructure, spending

a whopping 8.5% of their GDP on it annually. They have acted on the idea that the key for a modern

economy to function is a network of reliable road, rail and telecommunications, and this plan is set

to continue into the future to tie the country together. As it stands, they still only rank as ‘48th in the

World Economic Forum's survey of factors contributing to global competitiveness’. Although it’s

network of telecommunications and its power systems are very strong, its supply of clean water and

good quality roads still have a lot to be desired for to be up to the standards of other developed

countries. Goals have been put in place by the Chinese authorities to massively upgrade the logistics

within the country, including 70 new airports, an upgrade of their port facilities and over 40,000km

of new highways by 2020. (Chen Y., Matzinger S., Woetzel J., 2013)

Foreign infrastructure investment: For a country with such a colossal population with nowhere near

the amount of resources needed to fulfil its needs, it has begun to look elsewhere for them. China

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have been investing and building infrastructure in many undeveloped countries in the world, most

notably in sub-Saharan Africa in a resources-for-infrastructure model. Its hunger for natural

resources and energy are what is needed for the country to maintain and sustain its growth. The

country currently consumes 7.8 million barrels of oil per day, and this is estimated to double over

the next two decades. This demand along with other raw materials such as cobalt and copper are

soaring, materials which can all be found in Africa. (Laufman A., 2010)

Conclusion

In conclusion, based on much debate and research we have done, we believe there are a lot of

factors pointing towards this century becoming the “Chinese century”. 30 years of reform in China

turned the country from a highly centrally planned economy, with low GDP growth and poor

exports, and weak infrastructure, to a more open economic structure with steady GDP growth and

ever growing exports, and an increasingly sturdy infrastructure, with heavy FDI as the country is

becoming more appealing to outside investment.

Although one can find many arguments contradicting the “Chinese century” outcome, we believe

that China certainly has the ability and potential to become the world hegemon.

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