Policy Paper by Marn Hofmann, Audrey Jolivel, Daria Huss and Caroline Ambiaux March 2020 Internaonal Migraon: Drivers, Factors and Megatrends A Geopolical Outlook Introducon The main purpose of the 2019 Vienna Migraon Conference (VMC) was to discuss recommendaons for the next five years of European migraon poli- cy-making. Thus, migraon policy is embedded in a broader environment of global migraon factors, trends and paerns, which define both the opportu- nies and limitaons of what can or cannot be achieved at the polical level. In the framework of the 2019 VMC, a roundtable “geopolical outlook” gath- ered a number of European and internaonal experts to discuss the main fac- tors shaping these trends and paerns, the direcons in which they might develop, and the implicaons this development might have for regional and global migraon policy-making. Internaonal migraon is shaped by a variety of factors, each of which need to be understood individually but also in relaon to their role in a complex system of interconnecvity and mutual dependence. The actual impact of these factors and their interplay is not always fully clear. What is understood, however, is that regional migraon developments and polical responses reg- ularly have knock-on effects for other regions. Policymakers, the media and the public regularly request predicons from migraon researchers and ex- perts as to what will happen in the future. Will more or less migrants and refugees be on their way? Where will they come from? Where will they go? How will they move? Experience shows that such migraon prognoses are hard to make, at least concerning what will happen in the immediate future. The complexity of the phenomenon seems to exceed what forecasng can deliver as regards isolat - ed events or short me periods. However, this should not imply that it is im- possible to understand which factors impact migraon, how they will devel- op, and how the environment in which migraon is embedded might change in the medium- to long-run. 1 Key Points • Internaonal migraon is shaped by a variety of factors, each of which have their own significance but also influence the other factors. • Migraon cannot be explained by any single cause, model or theory. There are, however, some main drivers, or “megatrends”, that influence size, direcon and paerns of internaonal migraon flows more than others.
International Migration: Drivers, Factors and Megatrends
Jul 11, 2023
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