International Markets, Trade Agreements, Trends Kent Swisher, Vice President, International Programs 2019 IPPE, Atlanta, Georgia Friday, February 15, 2019
International Markets, Trade Agreements, Trends Kent Swisher, Vice President, International Programs
2019 IPPE, Atlanta, GeorgiaFriday, February 15, 2019
Overview
• Introduction • Supply/Demand• Trade War and Rendered Products• Trends
Staff
• German Davalos, Director Latin America, 15 years with NRA – Lucy Cano 15 years
• Peng Li, Director Asia, over 11 years– Teresa Hon – over 30 years
• Bruce Ross, Brussels, 11 years
Consultants:• Chile, China, Indonesia, Vietnam
Strategic Intention - Global
• Domestic and international markets – Promote the demand and market access for rendered products to domestic and international customers. Secure adequate resources from key strategic partnerships (members, federal government and strategic allies).
NRA’s Efforts
• NRA works through the US Agricultural Export Development Council
• Agricultural Trade Advisory Committee• Agricultural Policy Advisor Committee• Coalitions in WDC• Cooperation with APHIS, FAS, and USTR
U.S. Rendering Plants
= Packer Renderers = Independent Renderers National Renderers Association,
2016
Supply/Demand
U.S. Red Meat and Poultry Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026
Billion pounds
Broilers
Beef
Pork
Source: USDA/ERS
Source: Projections based off of USDA ERS Projections and USDA NASS production reports
Source: USDA/FAS PS&D
Aquaculture Production
Source: 2016 State of the Worlds Fisheries and Aquaculture, FAO
Supply – Protein Meals
Demand - Proteins
Indonesia
Chile
US MBM, PBM, Porcine Meal Exports
Supply – Fats and Oils
Supply Fats and Oils
Demand – Fats and Oils
US Tallow Exports
US UCO/YG Exports
Singapore
China UCO
Global Biodiesel/HVO Production
Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils (HVO)
Global HVO Plants/Production Trend
Source: Greenea.com
Distillers Corn Oil
Changing Markets
Retaliatory Tariffs
China Retaliatory Tariffs
• January 2017 – China imposed 42.2% - 53.7% duties on US DDGS with additional anti subsidy tariffs between 11.2% and 12%
• July 6 – China imposed 25% duty on US soybeans
• August 3 - China announced additional tariffs this time including processed animal protein meals and hides – 10% for meals
• September 24 – Tariffs imposed on US processed animal protein meals at 5%
• September 24 – Tariffs imposed on US fishmeal at 25%
Immediate impact
• US DDGS exports to China dropped from over 5 million mt to under 1 million
• Soybean prices dropped 20%• Rendered protein meals?• Fishmeal?
Impact - Soy
Source: USDA/FAS Oilseeds, World Markets and Trade, Sept 18
Fishmeal Imports
• China imports around 1 mmt of fishmeal• The US exports approximately 100,000 metric
tons of fishmeal to China or 10% of total imports
Economic
Economic
US Exports of Animal Protein Meals
Source: Global Trade Atlas
USMCA
Trends - Sustainability
Trends - Information
Thank You