International Conference and Exhibition on Logistics and Supply Chain 22 Nov 2011, Lahore (Pakistan) Mr. Max EE Principal Consultant Trade Logistics in.

International Conference and Exhibition on Logistics and Supply Chain

22 Nov 2011, Lahore (Pakistan)

Mr. Max EE

Principal Consultant

Trade Logistics in Central Asia

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1. Introduction of CAREC

2. CAREC Member Countries

3. CAREC Corridors

4. Implications for Pakistan

Contents

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The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, or CAREC, Program is a partnership of 10 countries, supported by 6 multilateral institutions, working together to promote development through cooperation, leading to accelerated growth and poverty reduction.

CAREC’s 6 multilateral partners are:Asian Development Bank (ADB)European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)International Monetary Fund (IMF)Islamic Development Bank (IsDB)United Nations Development ProgrammeWorld Bank

Priority areasCAREC helps Central Asia and its neighbors realize their significant potential by promoting regional cooperation in four priority areas:• Transport• Trade Facilitation• Trade Policy• Energy

CAREC and PIFFA

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Corridor Performance Measurement and Monitoring (CPMM)

A regional study on the time and cost for cargo transportation in Central Asia.

Objectives• To estimate the time and cost of goods movement in Central Asia

• To identify the bottlenecks in transport corridors

• To promote regional cross border trade and transport

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CPMM Data Collection

PIFFADrivers CAREC Questions?

Yes

No

Accept Data

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Transport to border

Wait at border crossing/change transport mode

Transport to sea port

Wait at sea port

Sea transportDay 4

Tim

e

Day 3

Day 2

Day 1

$400

Cost

$300

$200

$100

500 km 1000 km 2000 km1500 kmDistance

Time/Cost – Distance Analysis

Central Asia – Micro View

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Central Asia – Macro View

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CAREC Member Countries

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Azerbaijan

Kyrgyz Republic

China

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan

Kazakhstan

Mongolia

Pakistan

Tajikistan

Key Indicators

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  Population (millions)

Real GDP (Billions, USD)

GDP Per Capita

Read GDP % Growth

Afghanistan 34.38 $11.75 $341.77 3.40%Azebaijan 9.04 $51.09 $5,651.55 5.00%China 1,338.00 $5,878.00 $4,393.12 10.30%Kazakhstan 16.31 $142.98 $8,766.40 7.00%Kyrgyz Republic

5.36 $4.61 $860.07 -1.40%

Mongolia 2.75 $6.08 $2,210.91 6.10%Pakistan 173.59 $174.80 $1,006.97 4.40%Tajikistan 6.87 $5.64 $820.96 3.80%Turkmenistan 5.04 $21.07 $4,180.56 8.10%Uzbekistan 28.16 $38.98 $1,384.23 8.50%

Source : ADB, World Bank, IMF

Key Indicators

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Source : ADB, World Bank, IMF

  Export (Billions, USD)

Import (Billions, USD)

Ease of Doing Business

Afghanistan $0.40 $3.33 167Azebaijan $14.68 $6.11 54China $1,201.00 $1,066.00 79Kazakhstan $43.19 $28.40 59Kyrgyz Republic $1.17 $2.97 44Mongolia $1.67 $2.41 73Pakistan $17.55 $31.58 83Tajikistan $0.90 $2.56 139Turkmenistan $2.15 $5.22 N.A.Uzbekistan $5.34 $8.07 150

Trading Across Border

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Export ImportCountries Documents  Time (Days) Cost (USD) Documents  Time (Days) Cost (USD)Afghanistan 10 74 $3,545 10 77 $3,830Azebaijan 8 38 $2,905 10 42 $3,405China 8 21 $500 5 24 $545Kazakhstan 9 76 $3,130 12 62 $3,290Kyrgyz Republic

8 63 $3,210 9 72 $3,450

Mongolia 8 46 $2,265 8 47 $2,400Pakistan 7 21 $660 8 18 $705Tajikistan 11 82 $3,850 9 83 $4,550Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 10 71 $3,150 11 92 $4,650

Source : Doing Business 2012, World Bank

1. Western Europe-Western China Corridor

1. Steel products, coal and sulphur are some products commonly exported to the south (CIS) and east (PRC) of

Kazakhstan.

2. East-West Corridor

3. North-South Corridor

4. Trans-Mongolian Corridor

Road Transport

336 km

736 km

4. Common items transported are cosmetics, food, medicine, and spare parts.

Rail TransportTransit : 1,100 km, $2810, 12-14 daysRoute : Naushki-Sukhbaatar-Tolgoit-

Zamyn Uud – Erlian- TianjinProducts : Wood/Timber

Carriage : 60-70 tons using rail wagons

Import : 1,700 km, $3670, 10-14 daysRoute : Tianjin-Erlian-Zamyn Uud-UBProducts : Manufactured Goods, Food

Carriage : 20” or 40” Containers

Export: 1,700 km, $2231, 10-14 daysRoute : UB-Zamyn Uud – Erlian- TianjinProducts : Minerals, Cashmere, Copper

CathodesCarriage : 20” or 40” Containers

5. Southern Corridor

1. VOC is very high in TAJ. For a distance of 600-700km, the VOC is $2,000.

2. In AFG, NATO can sometimes stop traffic

causing delays.

6. Northwest Corridor

1. In AFG, the most heavily used route is Hayratan-Kabul-Torkham. Traffic is both ways.

The distance spans 600-700km, costs $2,500 and takes 1-2

days.

2. In the Hayratan-Kabul-Torkham route, common item is

scrap iron. In the opposite direction, the common item carried is perishables(food).

Results of CPMM Study

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Common Products Shipped Across Central Asia

Results of CPMM Study

25Corridors Corridors

Comparisons of Speed by Corridors

Results of CPMM Study

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Comparisons of Speed vs Reliability

Implications for Pakistan

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TransportInvestment

Logistics Terminals Sectors

1. Transport

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1. Most CAREC member countries are land-locked and do not access to seaports.

2. Can Pakistan serve as a transit country for Central Asia?

3. What Pakistan need to provide, invest and improve to attract more goods flowing through the country?

2. Logistics Terminals

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1. Where are the bottlenecks in Pakistan transport corridors?

2. Can the construction of new logistics terminals and facilities relieve the bottlenecks?

3. Can one-stop service (single window) for customs clearance be achieved at border crossing points?

3. Investment

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1. There are many investment opportunities now in Central Asia.

2. Examples : Multi-modal logistics terminals, railways rolling stocks, special economic zones (SEZs).

3. How can Pakistan private companies capture this historical opportunity?

4. Can Public-Private Partnership (PPP) be the way forward?

4. Sectors

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1. Attractive Investment / Collaboration areas include :

• Agricultural• Mining • Real Estate• Retail• Consumer Goods• Security Services• Hospitality / Entertainment• Trading (Import / Export)• Transport / Freight Forwarding

Thank You!

Max EeSupply Chain ConsultantSCM Analytics Pte LtdContact : +65 8138 8700Email: [email protected]