INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT (FINAL REPORT) The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of Tourism Development in the Northern Tourist Circuit of Tanzania--CBBIA-IAIA PROGRAM By Dr. Godius Kahyarara Mr. Ignace Mchallo Centre for Environmental Economics and Development Research (CEDR)
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INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT
(FINAL REPORT)
The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of Tourism Development in the Northern Tourist Circuit of Tanzania--CBBIA-IAIA PROGRAM
By
Dr. Godius Kahyarara
Mr. Ignace Mchallo
Centre for Environmental Economics and Development Research
4 DESCRIPTION OF THE NORTHERN CIRCUIT OF TOURISM IN TANZANIA. ............ 15
4.1 THE DYNAMICS OF ENVIRONMENT IN TOURISM DEVELOPMENT PLANS IN TANZANIA ........... 23 4.2 TOURIST DEVELOPMENT PLAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE NATIONAL MASTER PLAN OF TOURISM
DEVELOPMENT ..................................................................................................................................... 25 4.3 THE DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLANS FOR ALL MAJOR DISTRICTS IN THE NORTHERN CIRCUIT26 4.4 EVIDENCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE STUDY AREA ............................................ 26
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF TOURIST RELATED DEVELOPMENT PLANS ................. 29
4.5 STRATEGIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT MATRIX FOR THE EXISTING PROJECTS .............................. 29 4.6 STRATEGIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT MATRIX FOR THE NEW PROJECTS...................................... 30
5 ECONOMIC VALUE OF TOURIST ATTRACTION SITES IN THE NORTHERN
CIRCUIT AND THE WILLINGNESS OF THE TOURISTS TO PARTICIPATE IN A SCHEME
TO ENSURE SUSTAINABLE TOURISM IN THE NORTHERN CIRCUIT.................................. 30
5.1 CHOICE EXPERIMENT ...................................................................................................... 31 5.2 CONTINGENT VALUATION METHOD (CVM)............................................................... 34 5.3 RESULTS OF VALUATION BASED ON THE WILLINGNESS TO PAY............................................... 37
6 RECOMMENDED MANAGEMENT PLANS FOR IMPACT MITIGATION IN THE
development will not just simply happen. It has to be stimulated, directed and the activities of
the various tourism enterprises coordinated. This means having the appropriate institutional
framework, legislation and organizational structures in place; having an attractive climate for
enterprise development and investment; having a skilled labour force capable of meeting
international service standards; having a destination campaign to create strong market
awareness; having knowledge and understanding of the market place. The third step is to
establish an action programme to implement the strategy. The primary actions to be undertaken
during the two-year period 2002-2003 are outlined on the following table.
In implementing tourism development programs outlined above, Tourism industry
particularly in northern Tanzania has increasingly diversified. An issue of concern to tourism
planners is not only to sequence the recommended action programs, but also the extent that
tourism programs are implemented in a sustainable way with minimum damage to the
environment. One way to address the later concern has been to undertake environmental impact
assessments. Nonetheless, this raise a question, should the Impact Assessment be undertaken
prior to, or after, the establishment of a tourism product? This is not as simplistic as it appears
at first sight. Because all the action programs are so interlinked, trying to identify the best
sequence is not a realistic goal. No single measure can bring reliable and sustainable tourism
program. In this sense, it is more instructive to view the development of the tourism sector as a
process rather than as a sequence of activities.
Establishing the appropriate mechanism to ensure that each tourism development
project is backed up with Impact Assessment will create the environmental sound climate for
tourism. In this way, it will be possible to account for the potential Environmental Problems of
Tourism Development Projects. This study is one of the attempts to provide a mechanism
through which prompt actions will safeguard the sustainable development of tourism in
Tanzania. Most importantly, the strategic environmental impact assessment considered in this
project could provide the early warning on the on going development programs and propose the
suitable mitigating actions. However, little is known about the environmental effects of these
development plans. We envisage that, the strategic impact assessment undertaken based on
these plans will be an important contribution towards a better understanding of the likely
environmental problems.
4.3 The District Development Plans for all major districts in the Northern Circuit
Some of the districts in the Northern Circuit have developed development plans for tourism
development and projects. Such district development plans will form an important tool for
analyzing the impact assessment of tourism. For instance, Sinya village in Monduli District has
a contract which guarantees it a minimum of 30,000,000 Tsh per year for use of its lands by a
tourism company. Loiborsoit village in Simanjiro District earned $43,000 from a tourism joint
venture between 1994 and 1998 (AWF, 2001). As Community Based Tourism (CBT) has
grown and spread away from areas adjacent to National Parks, so have the amount and
distribution of benefits accessible to local communities in the region increased. For example,
Longido village in Monduli District participates in the Cultural Tourism Programme previously
sponsored and developed by SNV (Netherlands Development Organisation) and the Tanzania
Tourist Board. The number of tourists visiting Longido annually through this programme grew
from only 25 in 1995 to nearly 600 in 2000, when the village earned over $10,000 from fees
paid by visiting companies and individual tourists (Matungwe, 2000). Besides payments to
villages, benefits to CBT accrue to individuals within the community. In Loliondo’s Oloipiri
village, wages paid by luxury camping operators to local guides and watchmen amounted to
$8,938.50 in 2002, over a five-fold increase from $1,760 in 1997.
4.4 Evidences of Environmental Change in the Study Area
Negative impacts from tourism occur when the level of visitor use is greater than the
environment's ability to cope with this use within the acceptable limits of change. Uncontrolled
conventional tourism poses potential threats to many natural areas around the world. It can put
enormous pressure on an area and lead to impacts such as soil erosion, increased pollution,
discharges into the sea, natural habitat loss, increased pressure on endangered species and
heightened vulnerability to forest fires. It often puts a strain on water resources, and it can force
local populations to compete for the use of critical resources. One way of capturing this impact
is through assessing trends in environmental changes.
Matched or repeat fixed-point photography have been used extensively in this study to
provide comparative information directly through an image without having to resort to
statistical analysis and specialized expert knowledge. By using an updated photograph 2, the
study addressed relevant questions about environmental change in specific locations in the
Northern Circuit. When comparing images from two separate time periods we focused on the
significant changes in the density of vegetation and species composition. Other important
questions from a comparison of matched photos were related to histories of environmental
variables, such as rainfall, fire, wildlife and human impacts, thus building a profile of likely
causes of environmental change. This methodology coupled with more focused GIS
information facilitated our understanding of the physical trends in environmental problems in
the study area. Soil, vegetation and socio-economic site surveys also fed backed into the repeat
photo research process in order to achieve more reliable aspects of ecological dynamism and
environmental change in the Northern Circuit. We present an example of previous photo taken
in the area as presented in Map 2..
Figure 6 Map of the Study Area showing matched photos
The other important way of monitoring changes will be through assessing changes in rainfall
over time. During site visit and meetings we found that monthly rainfall data are available for
Lake Manyara National Park (1971-1999), Monduli (1934-1996), Karatu (1939-1995) and the
Selian Airport west of Arusha (1925-1997). Average coefficients of variation (CV) for Lake
Manyara Park (25%), Karatu (32%), Monduli (25%) and Arusha (26%) mask much larger
inter-annual variations, which are more extreme in adjacent arid and semi-arid areas where the
average CV is much higher (>35%).
Figure 7 Rainfall-Karatu and Monduli 4 year running mean
Environmental Impact of Tourist Related Development Plans
In carrying out this strategic impact assessment, we evaluated the likely environmental impacts
of a proposed tourist projects in the Northern Circuit of Tanzania, taking into account inter -
related socio-economic, cultural and human health impacts, both beneficial and adverse. Our
assessment was done trough five steps namely screening, scoping, impact assessment,
identification and recommendation of the mitigation measure, proposals on monitoring and
evaluation. In the first step or screening stage, we determined the type of tourist development
plans in the northern circuit of Tanzania that indeed needs an impact assessment study; In the
second step or scoping stage we identified types of potential impacts that are relevant to assess,
In the third stage we predicted and identified the likely environmental impacts of a proposed
tourist project or and plans taking into account inter -related consequences of the tourist project
proposal, and the socio-economic impacts; In the fourth stage we identified mitigation
measures and lastly we proposed for (appropriate monitoring and evaluation strategy.
4.5 Strategic Impact Assessment Matrix for the Existing Projects
E(i)
Negative
E(ii)
Uncertain
E(iii)
Neutral
E(iv)
Positive
Remarks
Increased number of tourists.
+-0 Revenue has increased but there is congestion
Expansion of tourist facilities and infrastructure
-
Expansion of hunting blocks reduces land for
local inhabitants
Enhanced businesses, market increase.
+
There is increase in employment and
income
Impacts on main ecosystems and conservation sites.
-
The ecosystem is very fragile and is exposed
to degradation
4.6 Strategic Impact Assessment Matrix for the New Projects
From the matrix above it is easier to see that increased number of tourist is perceived bt
stakeholders to have neutral effect. This is due to the fact that although there is a rise in revenue
from tourism caused by the increase in the number of tourists, the adverse effects of over
expansion eats up the benefit. Expansion of tourist infrastructure and facilities is viewed to
have negative outcome. This was mainly attributed to pressure on land use caused by increased
hunting, site viewing and transport needs. On the other hand, enhanced business and market
increase is regarded as a positive effect in the study area. This is partly due to considerable
increase in employment. As expected the impact on main ecosystem and conservation sites is
negative.
5 Economic Value of Tourist Attraction Sites in the Northern
Circuit and the Willingness of the Tourists to Participate in a scheme
to Ensure Sustainable Tourism in the Northern Circuit
In addition to the Strategic Impact assessment we estimated the total economic value of the
tourist sites. In particular, we focused on the consumers of tourist services and assess their role
in ensuring sustainable tourist management. A Choice model was conducted to determine
tourists' willingness to participate in promoting sustainable tourism in the Northern Circuit of
Tanzania. In applying the choice mode we evaluated the circumstances necessary to make them
reduce either financial expenditure or time spent in already overcrowded tourist attractions in
the northern circuit. It was anticipated that the value of the sites derived in this way will give an
indication of the total cost of the environmental impacts to the society. On other hands it would
reveal how much is roughly a loss from not addressing the adverse effects of the tourist related
projects in the area. This exercise was also important, in identifying potential new tourist
attractions. We relied primarily on the contingent valuation method (CVM) to evaluate tourism
resources.
Sampling
The choice model questions were given to a random sample of tourists. We conducted our
survey through personal interviews at Kilimanjaro international Airport, Impala and Mount
Meru hotels and at tour operators stations. Our final sample coverage had 200 people and each
respondent was subject to the choice experiment six times; therefore, the total sample size was
1200.
5.1 CHOICE EXPERIMENT
Methods
A choice experiment (CE) is a stated preference technique, meaning that respondents are asked
to evaluate hypothetical goods or scenarios. Respondents are presented with
a choice set of alternative scenarios and asked which alternative they prefer. These alternatives
are described by a number of attributes, which have multiple levels that differ in each
alternative. Usually, choice experiments are conducted to derive a monetary value of a certain
(public) good, and therefore one of the attributes is often a
monetary cost. For instance, a certain nature park could be described by a number of attributes
and the monetary cost attribute could be an entrance fee people would have
to pay. This is comparable to the contingent valuation method, where, after a description of the
park, people would also be asked if they would be willing to pay a certain entrance fee.
The advantage of a choice experiment is the ability to understand
more accurately what exactly people would be willing to pay for, because a monetary value can
be derived for each of the attributes. It is very important to carefully select the relevant
attributes and assign their levels. Relevant attributes should be considered important
characteristics of the good by the target population, and it has to be possible to influence them
by for instance a policy change. What people think are important attributes and realistic levels
can be investigated in focus group discussions (Bateman and al. 2002). While it is vital to
describe the good accurately, care has to be taken not to overstretch the analytical capacities of
the respondents. Too many attributes will make it impossible for them to easily evaluate the
alternatives. As a result, respondents might base their choices on just one or two attributes, or
even lose interest in the choices all together and either refuse to participate or select the
alternatives arbitrarily.
After the relevant attributes and levels have been determined, the next step is to
construct the alternatives from the different attribute levels and the choice sets from the
different alternatives. One of the alternatives is always a non-of-the-above option, which can be
considered a choice for the status quo or no-change. These designs have to meet certain criteria
to warrant meaningful results. This kind of study is of benefit to policy makers, as it helps them
to decide where to establish new tourism resources and to determine the costs of participating.
The questionnaire comprised of four parts. First, we obtained personal data from the
respondents, e.g., sex, age, nationality, and annual income. Second, we described the six main
tourism resources around the Northern Circuit with a color photo panel that used the same
descriptions. Third, we explained known problems associated with access to these sites, as
mentioned earlier. Finally, the choice experiment was conducted six times for each respondent.
We showed respondents three profiles, two of which were hypothetical one-day package tours,
and the other was the option of staying in town without joining a tour. We asked respondents to
choose their most preferred option. Formally, in the course of making choice, individuals were
said to solve the following maximization problem:
Maxc,x U[c1(A1)],...,cN(AN);z]
N
s.t. i. y= ∑ pici (Ai
i=1
ii ci cj = 0, Ai ≠ j
iii z ≥ 0, ci (Ai) ≥ for at least one i
where, U[…] is a quasiconcave utility function; ci (Ai) is alternative combination i
(profile i ) as a function of its generic and alternative specific attributes, the vector Ai;
pi is the price of each profile; z is a composite bundle of ordinary goods with its price
normalized to 1 and y is income. A number of properties follow from the specification
of the maximization problem:
The ci’s are profiles defined for all the relevant alternatives. Additionally, the choice of any
profile is for a fixed, and given, amount of it. There are N such profiles, where N is in principle
given by all relevant profiles. Below we describe one of the six cards indicating one of the six
eligible choices.
5.2 CONTINGENT VALUATION METHOD (CVM)
The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to assess the use value of tourist attractions
in the Northern Circuit. This approach enabled us to ascertain whether visitors value the
attractions they visit and if they are willing to reduce pressure on already overcrowded sites.
Respondents were asked an open-ended question to elicit maximum willingness to pay to
conserve the Northern Circuit. Unlike in other CVM surveys this question was posed as one of
the attributes in the choice model. The particular remit of the survey was to elicit a very wide
range of attitudes and characteristics, in order to assess the nature of the valuations submitted.
The analysis of the willingness to pay assumed that utility gained from consuming tourist
services is a function of market prices, income, and other alternative tourist attractions. A
change in the amount of one of the tourist services z (in this case provision of susiatnable
tourist goods and services) will change utility. Consider a change in z so that z1 > z0. It follows
that, if the element of z changed is considered a ‘good’ by the individual, that provides positive
benefit, then in terms of indirect utility functions V (p,z,y):
U1 = V (p, z1,y) > U0 = V (p, z0,y) (1)
Where p is price, y is income and z is tourist service.
Therefore the compensating variation (CV) of the utility change can be expressed in terms of
the indirect utility function as follows:
V (p, z1,y - C) = V (p, z0,y) (2)
In (2), C represents the amount of money loss the individual could incur after a change in z
and still be as well off as before the change. It is the maximum willingness to pay for a certain
level of provision of tourist services. This assumes that the individual experiences no decrease
in utility due to the change from z0 to z1 so that D U º U1 - U0 ³ 0. The CVM payment is for
z1, where the tourist services are improved through direct contributions.
Regression
An econometric linear model was used to investigate what factors affect people’s willingness to
pay for tourist service. To reduce the complexity of the model and facilitate model estimation
with relatively few observations, the midpoints of respondent’s bounded intervals of WTP were
used as the dependent variable. There is no obvious reason why this assumption should unduly
bias any conclusions drawn from the estimated model. The model explaining WTP is given
below:
(3) ijijij XWTP εβ += 1
where Xi is a vector of exogenous explanatory variables, i and j refers to individual and area
specifics, β is the parameter vector to be estimated and e is the residual error, assumed
distributed N(0, s 2).
RESULTS
Our survey design used existing and new tourism resources as attributes. To assess individual
level tourist economics outcome, we assumed a random utility model and estimated the value
of the attributes using a conditional logit model. Based on the results of our estimations, we
also calculated a marginal willingness-to-pay assessment for each resource. Our survey results
indicated that Serengeti and Ngorongoro had the highest values of all existing tourist
attractions. We also estimated the relative values of less popular but potential tourist sites like
Mikumu. Finally we used the last attribute to estimate the willingness to pay as a contribution
towards conserving the currently degraded most popular tourist sites. First we found that less
popular tourist destinations have less value relative to the most popular ones. The results
suggested that significant investment in infrastructure, tourist facilities and improved services
are pre-requsite for the less popular tourist sites in other circuits can be used as alternative
tourist destinations. The average willingness to pay was expressed at about $7.5 as one and for
all contribution fees from visitors in the Northern Circuit. We use this figure to get the average
value of the tourist site.
TABLE 3
RESULTS OF ESTIMATED CHOICE MODEL AND MARGINAL WILLINGNESS TO PAY
Results
Table 5 shows the results for our choice model. The coefficients estimates are based on the
attributes. The results control for socio-economic characteristics that can potentially cause
endogeneity problem in our estimates. The results indicated in the table confirm that all our
coefficients have the right signs of coefficients. The less popular destination has negative
coefficient sign, showing disutility of visit. The rest have positive coefficients signifying strong
preference of visitors in the already over crowded attractions. The coefficient for willingness to
pay for improving sustainability has the positive sign implying a strong preference to pay and
also most important the positive value of the tourist resources estimated. The model provides a
relatively good fit of the data as demonstrated by a pseudo R-squared of 0.31. As a rule of
thumb a good model should have an R-squared between 0.2 and 0.4. As can be seen more days
spent in Ngorongoro is the most preferred form of alternative to the overcrowded site of
Serengeti National Park.
As the table indicates, we calculated the Marginal rate of substitution (MRS). The
MRS is the rate at which respondents are willing to trade-off one tourist attraction for
Attributes Model 1 Marginal Substitution
Standard Deviation
Less Popular -0.0185 9.4
0.0014
Serengeti 0.1001 12.5
0.0094
Ngorongoro 0.1905
0.0103
Manyara 0.0142
0.0006
Marginal WTP $7.5
Pseudo R2 0.31
No. of observations 2160
another given that everything else is held constant. From the table we uncover that tourists are
willing to give up 12.5 % of their income spent in overcrowded site in exchange for one day
spent in a next popular destination. Similarly, they are willing to give up 9.4% of their income
spent in most popular destination for one day spent in a less popular destination.
5.3 Results of valuation based on the willingness to pay
We used the value on willingness to pay of $ 7.5 along with the total visitors in each attraction (attribute) to estimate the economic value of each attraction. The results are indicated in the table below
Table 4 estimates of attraction values based on willingness to pay
Mean Willingness to Pay in US Dollars
Estimated Value in US Dollars
Serengeti 378,218 7.5 2,836,635
Manyara 120,470 7.5 903,525
Ngorongoro 297,797 7.5 2,233,477
Arusha 67,075 7.5 503,063
Tarangire 78,967 7.5 592,253
The table above reveals that the overcrowded attractions have the highest value.
6 Recommended Management Plans for Impact Mitigation in the Northern
Circuit.
In this section we propose some potential intervention measure to ensure sustainable tourism
development in our study area. One of the critical approach to the observed sustainability
problems in the Northern circuit is design of Impact management plans. This Impact
Management Plans can be used as a tool to ensure that mitigation measures are implemented
and impact management is taking place. Such plans typically incorporate appropriate
management of environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts, intended to follow
through on the results of the impact assessment by describing the mitigation and emergency
response measures, monitoring, reporting, management and administrative mechanisms and
structures that will be put in place during the various stages of implementing projects, including
construction, commissioning, operation and decommissioning.
If we are to consider the plans as an option to escalating sustainability problems in the Northern
Circuit then the plan should be inclusive of the following:
• Description of planned mitigation measures
• Description of measures for responding to potential adverse effects.
• Description of planned environmental monitoring - this should specify the type of
monitoring required, the parameters to be measured, methods to be used, sampling
location; frequencies, detection limits and thresholds to signal the need for corrective
actions.
• Description of the responsibilities and accountabilities for mitigation, responses to
accidents and malfunctions, and monitoring - this should include responsibilities for
mitigation, accidents and malfunctions and monitoring together with information flow,
and coordination between and among agencies responsible for mitigation, monitoring
and emergency response.
6.1 Management of Tourism
The other solution to the sustainable problems of the Northern Curcuit would be to ensure long-term commitments and improvements to develop and promote sustainable tourism, through partnerships and voluntary initiatives by all sectors and stakeholders, including initiatives to give local communities a share in the ownership and benefits of tourism. Some more specific intervention arrears in the northern circuit should be along the following lines.
• Structure initiatives to give all stakeholders a share in the ownership, to maximise their effectiveness.
• Establish clear responsibilities, boundaries and timetables for the success of any initiative.
• As well as global initiatives, encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to also develop and promote their own initiatives for sustainable tourism at a more local level
• Consider integrating initiatives for small and medium-sized enterprises within overall business support packages, including access to financing, training and marketing, alongside measures to improve sustainability as well as the quality and diversity of their tourism products.
• Market tourism in a manner consistent with sustainable development of tourism.
6.2 Monitoring
Monitoring of tourist activities in the northern circuit is another form of intervention that can improve the modes of tourist development. This approach can ensure consistent monitoring and review of tourism activities to detect problems at an early stage and to enable action to prevent the possibility of more serious damage. Specific steps recommended on this front are to:
• Establish indicators for measuring the overall progress of tourist areas towards sustainable development.
• Establish institutional and staff capacity for monitoring.
• Monitor the implementation of environmental protection and related measures set out in EIAs, and their effectiveness, taking into account the effectiveness of any ongoing management requirements for the effective operation and maintenance of those measures for protection of areas where tourism activities take place.
6.3 Compliance Mechanisms
The final aspect of Impact management plan in the northern circuit is compliance mechanism that would ensure compliance with development plans, planning conditions, standards and targets for sustainable tourism by providing incentives, monitoring compliance, and enforcement activities where necessary.
• Provide sufficient resources for maintaining compliance, including increasing the number of trained staff able to undertake enforcement activities as part of their duties.
• Monitor environmental conditions and compliance with legislation, regulations, and consent conditions
• Use compliance mechanisms and structured monitoring to help detect problems at an early stage, enabling action to be taken to prevent the possibility of more serious damage.
• Take into account compliance and reporting requirements set out in relevant international agreements.
• Use incentives to encourage good practice, where appropriate.
7 Summary and Conclusion
In this project, we set out to undertake Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEA) of
tourism development projects in the Northern Tourist Circuit of Tanzania. In particular, we
assessed the likely environmental and social impacts of the Tourism development plans in the
Northern Circuit of Tanzania.
We achieved this by comparing the current environmental, social and economic
baseline and likely trends under the tourism development plans against sustainability
objectives. More specifically; (i) we investigated whether there are particular areas within the
Northern Circuit of Tanzania where tourist development is causing serious environmental
degradation (ii) we evaluated the economic benefits of Tourism development projects in the
Northern Circuit (iii) we advised on the appropriate approach to future tourism development in
the Northern Circuit of Tanzania and (iv) we assessed the institutional and regulatory
frameworks for environmental assessment and management, including capacity building and
enforcement for tourism expansion to be sustainable in this area.
Apart from the strategic impact assessment of the tourist projects in the Northern
Circuit, we undertook the economic valuation of the benefits of such projects. In this respect,
we used the Choice Model/Experiment. Choice experiments, along with the, by now, well-
known contingent valuation method, are very important tools for valuing non-market goods and
the results are used in both cost-benefit analyses and litigations related to damage assessments.
Our matrix of impact assessment revealed that increased number of tourist is perceived by
stakeholders to have neutral effect. This is due to the fact that although there is a rise in revenue
from tourism caused by the increase in the number of tourists, the adverse effects of over
expansion eats up the benefit. Expansion of tourist infrastructure and facilities is viewed to
have negative outcome. On the other hand, enhanced business and market increase is regarded
as a positive effect in the study area. We have argued that this is partly due to considerable
increase in employment. As expected the impact on main ecosystem and conservation sites is
negative.
In this project, we set out to undertake Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEA) of
tourism development projects in the Northern Tourist Circuit of Tanzania. In particular, we
assessed the likely environmental and social impacts of the Tourism development plans in the
Northern Circuit of Tanzania.
We achieved this by comparing the current environmental, social and economic
baseline and likely trends under the tourism development plans against sustainability
objectives. More specifically; (i) we investigated whether there are particular areas within the
Northern Circuit of Tanzania where tourist development is causing serious environmental
degradation (ii) we evaluated the economic benefits of Tourism development projects in the
Northern Circuit (iii) we advised on the appropriate approach to future tourism development in
the Northern Circuit of Tanzania and (iv) we assessed the institutional and regulatory
frameworks for environmental assessment and management, including capacity building and
enforcement for tourism expansion to be sustainable in this area.
Apart from the strategic impact assessment of the tourist projects in the Northern
Circuit, we undertook the economic valuation of the benefits of such projects. In this respect,
we used the Choice Model/Experiment. Choice experiments, along with the, by now, well-
known contingent valuation method, are very important tools for valuing non-market goods and
the results are used in both cost-benefit analyses and litigations related to damage assessments.
Our matrix of impact assessment revealed that increased number of tourist is perceived by
stakeholders to have neutral effect. This is due to the fact that although there is a rise in revenue
from tourism caused by the increase in the number of tourists, the adverse effects of over
expansion eats up the benefit. Expansion of tourist infrastructure and facilities is viewed to
have negative outcome. On the other hand, enhanced business and market increase is regarded
as a positive effect in the study area. We have argued that this is partly due to considerable
increase in employment. As expected the impact on main ecosystem and conservation sites is
negative.
Our choice model results revealed the coefficient for willingness to pay for improving
sustainability has the positive sign implying a strong preference to pay and also most important
the positive value of the tourist resources estimated. In calculating the Marginal rate of
substitution (MRS) we found that tourists are willing to give up 12.5 % of their income spent
in overcrowded site in exchange for one day spent in a next popular destination. Similarly, they
are willing to give up 9.4% of their income spent in most popular destination for one day spent
in a less popular destination.
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