INTERNAL BMC ANALYSIS Symposium.pdf · Peaceful and Friendly Relations with all Countries. We will Pursue Our International Engagement Based on Enlightened National Interest, Combining

DISCLAIMER

• VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE SPEAKER DURING THE COURSE OF HIS TALK ARE PURELY HIS PERSONAL VIEWS AND ARE NOT TO BE QUOTED AS AN AUTHORITY OUTSIDE NOR DOES HIS VIEWS REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF ANY ORGANISATION OR POLITY.

• ITS PURELY OUT OF HIS RESEARCH WORK AND LOGIC OBTAINED FROM SWOT ANALYSIS

“Our National Security must be based on three pillars, first a strong Economic, Technological and Social base; second, Good Defence Capability; finally, mutually beneficial partnerships in the Strategic, Economic and Technological spheres aimed at enlarging our policy choices and development options”.

Dr Manmohan Singh

INDIAN STRATEGIC CULTURE

INDIAN STRATEGIC CULTURE

TO DISCUSS SECURITY CHALLENGES WITH RESPECT TO SHAPING OUR NEIGHBOURHOOD

AIM

SCOPE

National Vision, Aim, Mission, Interests & Security Objectives

Environmental Scan – Regional and Global

SWOT Analysis and SWOT Based Strategies

Recommended National Security Strategies

NATIONAL VISION

Reinforce as a secure, stable, secular & democratic nation

Foster nationhood

Create an India bustling with energy, entrepreneurship and innovation

Harness opportunities in IT sector, green revolution & drive towards skill development

Be a resource efficient and environmentally benign nation

Fortify India’s rightful place in the multi-centric international order

Enhance efficiency, transparency, decentralization and accountability in governance

NATIONAL AIMS

Basic necessities of life

Economic development

Social development

Status in Comity of Nations

Science & Technology

Good governance

Work values

Territorial integrity

“India’s Foreign Policy, with its Civilisational Roots and Heritage, is Based on the Principles of Developing Peaceful and Friendly Relations with all Countries. We will Pursue Our International Engagement Based on Enlightened National Interest, Combining the Strength of Our Values with Pragmatism, Leading to A Doctrine of Mutually Beneficial Relationships”

President Pranab Mukherjee, Joint Session of Parliament, June 9, 2014

Four basic national interests of nation states

Defence of the homeland

Economic well-being

Creation of a favourable world order or external

environment

Promotion of national values

• Survival of the State

NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS

NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS

Security of India’s sovereign territory with its values intact (survival of the state)

Internal stability and security

Elimination of terrorism and violent religious extremism

Creation of a secure environment conducive for sustained economic development

Access to all sources of energy, free flow of commerce, stable international economic order and financial systems

Ensuring social harmony in such a diversified society

Ensure inclusive growth by poverty alleviation and improving HDI ranking

Non-discriminatory access to scientific and technological progress

Peace and stability in its immediate neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean region

EXTERNAL SECURITY

Existing Geo political environment

Rise of China

Competition for Global Energy and economic resources

Challenge of Terrorism

Propagation of Asymmetric warfare by Pakistan

Unresolved Border disputes

Nuclearisation in the Sub continent

Concerns of Piracy

Growing China – Pakistan nexus

Uncertainty in Afghanistan

Uncertain future of Pakistan

Radicalisation and Ethnic conflicts

NATIONAL SECURITY OBJECTIVES

Use all elements of power available to maintain stability in the region

Build military capability

Early operationalisation of nuclear triad

Formulation of Cyber Security plan at National Level

Have a balanced conventional capability

Effective Intelligence set up.

Capability to counter any cyber threat

Achieve self- reliance in defence sector

Force capability to match any aggression by adversary

Achieve Blue Water capabilities for Navy

STRATEGIC LOCATION

ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN

Smaller countries feel insecure

Seek support of external power

Unrealistic expectations

Look for ways to differentiate themselves

India constantly accused of interference in internal affairs of neighbours

Complex and dangerous neighbourhood

India is a regional power, a nascent global power and a potential superpower

ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN

REGIONAL SCAN

CHINA

• Unresolved Border

Disputes

• String of Pearls

• Economic Might

• Military Might

• Cheap Goods

• Bal of Trade

• Veto Power in UNSC

• Collusivity With Pak

• Exploit Internal Ethnic

Divisions

• Dependence on SLOCs

• Political Structure

• Economic Disparity

• Multilateral Disputes

• Trade

Where China cannot affect change, it makes the best out of the current global order and quietly pursues its own interests; but where the possibility of creating new norms exists, Beijing acts assertively.

PAKISTAN

Opportunities

• Epicentre of Terror

• Bilateral Trade

• Islamic Terror.

• Indo US Proximity

• Economic

Dependency

Threats

• Safety of nuclear arsenal.

• Lack of political control over

military.

• Increasing sectarianism.

• Export of Terror

• Collusivity with China

• Fundamentalism

• Pak – Russian engagements

AFGHANISTAN

Opportunities

• Increase strategic reach • Counter Taliban and IS • Build and consolidate

democratic institutions. • Strategic Partnerships • Investment in

Manufacturing hub • Market for Indian goods. • Infrastructure

Development • Energy Transit Corridor • Training of Personnel • Defence Cooperation

Threats

• Spill over and spread of

terrorism

• Unstable region

• Narco trafficking

• Base for adversaries

• Deep rooted democracy

combined with current

political stability

• Shared historical, cultural

& people to people bonds

• Bilateral Trade

• Maritime Interests

• Cooperation in Defence

• Closeness to

China and

Pakistan

• Fishermen issue

• Tamil ethnicity

SRI LANKA “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia.”

Opportunities

• Consolidation of

Democratic Institutions

• Re-galvanise Trade

• Express solidarity in all

global economic forum

and WTO

• HADR Operations

• Defence Cooperation

• Counter terrorism pact

Threats

• Increasing Chinese

influence.

• Social unrest

attributed to India

• Return to Maoism

• Conduit for Islamic

terrorism

Opportunities • Help in Building

Institutions

• Solidarity in Global

forum

• Skill Development

• HADR Contingency

• Defence Cooperation

• Hydro Electric Power

• Infrastructure

Development

• Training of Army

Threats

• Increasing Chinese

pressure

BHUTAN AND NEPAL

SIKKIM

BANGLADESH

BHUTAN

NEPAL

CHUMBI VALLEY (TIBET)

SILIGURI

SILIGURI CORRIDOR

ASSAM

KOCHBIHAR

KALIMPONG

DARJEELING

MG

BG

RD

PPL

ISLAMPUR

AREA 180X 20-90 KM

NARROWEST 22X18 KM

BANGLADESH

Opportunities

• Maritime Security

• Science and Tech

• Trade and Manufacture

• Development of Dhaka

Port

• Energy Security

• Military Training

• Joint Operations

Threats

• Water Sharing

• Relations with

China

• Indian Insurgent

Groups

• Cross Border

Illegal Activities

• Amalgamation of

Insurgent Groups

BANGLADESH

Opportunities

• Breaking out of the Chinese

fold

• Democracy in Myanmar

• Military Cooperation

• Economic Cooperation

• Gateway to Southeast Asia.

• Infrastructure Development

• Oil Exploration

• Cooperation in Regional

Forums

Threats

• Chinese influence with the

military leaders.

• Rohingya Migration

• Indian Naga terror groups

based in Myanmar

• Increased Chinese

Activities

MYANMAR

Opportunities

• Platform for regional stability amongst regional and mega players

• Increased attraction of region due to shrinking consumption in EU and China.

• Increased Economic Activity

Threats

• Vulnerability to external economic shocks

• Push and pull on member states due increased competition by US and China

• Territorial Disputes with China

SUPRANATIONAL (ASEAN)

•US

•RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST

•IRAN

•IRAQ

•ISRAEL

•SAUDI ARABIA

CAR

•UKRAINE

•KAZAKISTAN

•TAJIKISTAN

ASIA PACIFIC

•SOUTH KOREA

•JAPAN

•AUSTRALIA

•VIETNAM

• MALAYSIA

AFRICA

•EGYPT

•NIGERIA

•CONGO

EUROPE

•UK

•GERMANY

•FRANCE

SUPRA NATIONAL

•UNITED NATIONS

•G 20

•BRICS

•EU

•GCC

GLOBAL SCAN

Countries

• South Korea • Japan • Australia • Vietnam • Malaysia

Opportunities • Bilateral Trade and investment • Civil Nuclear materials and tech • Maritime pact • Support India’s bid to join APEC • Civil Space Science research • Impetus to Make In India • Infrastructure building in India • Market For Exports • Defence Co-operation • Countering Chinese hegemony in the

region

STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

STRENGTHS IN INTERNAL ENVIORNMENT

Political

• Democracy.

• Foreign Policy.

• Judiciary system.

• Geostrategic location.

• Capable military.

Economic

• Economic growth. • Reforms. • Manufacturing and

service industry. • Renewable energy

resources. • Large Coal

deposits. • Large Work Force

and Consumer Base.

Social

• Free and liberal society.

• Unity in diversity.

• Freedom of expression.

• Strong national spirit.

• Human Resource.

Technological

• Nuclear Capability.

• Strong space and Missile Technology.

• IT and Services Sector.

• Ship building technology.

WEAKNESSES IN INTERNAL ENVIORNMENT

Economic

• Energy imports. • Energy insecurity. • Natural gas.

• Hydroelectric potential.

Social

• Indifference to National Honour.

• Poor HDI.

• Corruption.

• Population.

• Infrastructure.

• Skilled work force.

• Environmental issues.

Technological

• Manufacturing Sector.

• Indigenisation in defence

RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES

Use sustained economic growth to improve Infrastructure

Utilise functional democracy and proactive governance

Maintain strict internal security

Provide major impetus to ‘Make in India’ programme

Undertake secular practices in the country

Facilitate capability building of the armed forces

Use effective governance to resolve border and boundary issues with neighbours

RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES

Exploit US Pivot to Asia Strategy

Use geostrategic and economic partnerships

Undertake cooperation with immediate neighbours and in IOR

Provide impetus to strategic partnerships with global mega actors

Garner international support with Geo strategic partners to marginalise Pak

Undertake proactive diplomacy with immediate neighbours

Undertake proactive military and economic diplomacy in IOR littoral states

Use geostrategic and economic partnership with neighbours and strategic

partners

Leveraging fear of Chinese hegemony in the SAARC and ASEAN countries

RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES

Political

Ensure transparency and accountability through eGovernance penetration

Use vibrant constitution and functional democracy and pro active governance

Social

Develop Higher learning institutions to global standards

Economic

Policy of constructive engagement and need for strong economic ties with neighbours

Use proactive governance for inviting greater FDI and FII

RECOMMENDED NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

Diplomatic

Isolate and expose Pakistan in the international community

Use geostrategic and economic partnership with neighbours and strategic partners

Technology

Maintain technological edge and growth

Military

Strengthen strategic and conventional military capability

Develop a multidimensional responsive integrated C4I2STAR capability

RECOMMENDED NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

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