Interest Rate Interest Rate Risk I Risk I Chapter 8 © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Part A Covers pages 190-200
Dec 13, 2015
Interest Rate Risk IInterest Rate Risk I
Chapter 8
© 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Part ACovers pages 190-200
8-2
Overview
This chapter discusses the interest rate risk associated with financial intermediation: Federal Reserve monetary policy Interest rate risk models *Term structure of interest rate risk *Theories of the term structure of interest
rates
8-3
Interest Rate Risk Models
Repricing model Maturity model Duration model In-house models
Proprietary Commercial
8-4
Loanable Funds Theory
Interest rates reflect supply and demand for loanable funds
Shifts in supply or demand generate interest rate movements as market forces establish a new equilibrium
8-11
Level & Movement of Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Bank: U.S. central bank Open market operations influence money
supply, inflation, and interest rates Actions of Fed in response to 2001 attacks on
World Trade Center Lowered interest rates 11 times during the year
June 2004- August 2006 inflation concerns take prominence 17 consecutive increases in interest rates
2008/2009 Short rates lowered to virtually zero
8-12
Central Bank and Interest Rates
Target is primarily short term rates Focus on Fed Funds Rate in particular
Interest rate changes and volatility increasingly transmitted from country to country Statements by Ben Bernanke can have
dramatic effects on world interest rates.
8-16
Rate Changes Can Vary by Market
Note that there have been significant differences in recent years
If your asset versus liability rates change by different amounts, that is called “basis risk” May not be accounted for in your interest rate
risk model
8-17
Repricing Model
Repricing or funding gap model based on book value.
Contrasts with market value-based maturity and duration models recommended by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
Rate sensitivity means time to repricing. Repricing gap is the difference between the rate
sensitivity of each asset and the rate sensitivity of each liability: RSA - RSL.
Refinancing risk However, theoretically could be reinvestment risk
(positive gap)
8-18
Repricing Model
We are interested in the Repricing Model as an introduction to the importance of Net Interest Income Variability of NII is really what we are trying to
protect NII is the lifeblood of banks/thrifts
8-19
Maturity Buckets
Commercial banks must report repricing gaps for assets and liabilities with maturities of: One day. More than one day to three months. More than 3 three months to six months. More than six months to twelve months. More than one year to five years. Over five years.
Note the cut-off levels
8-20
Repricing Gap Example
Assets Liabilities Gap Cum. Gap
1-day $ 20 $ 30 $-10 $-10
>1day-3mos. 30 40 -10 -20
>3mos.-6mos. 70 85 -15 -35
>6mos.-12mos. 90 70 +20 -15
>1yr.-5yrs. 40 30 +10 -5
>5 years 10 5 +5 0
8-21
Repricing Gap Example
Assets Liabilities Gap Cum. Gap
1-day $ 20 $ 30 $-10 $-10>1day-3mos. 30 40 -10 -20>3mos.-6mos. 70 85 -15 -35>6mos.-12mos. 90 70 +20 -15>1yr.-5yrs. 40 30 +10 -5>5 years 10 5 +5 0
Note this example is not realistic because asset = liabilities
Usually assets > liabilities, final CGAP will be +
8-22
Applying the Repricing Model
NIIi = (GAPi) Ri = (RSAi - RSLi) Ri
Example: In the one day bucket, gap is -$10 million. If rates
rise by 1%,
NII(1) = (-$10 million) × .01 = -$100,000.
8-23
Applying the Repricing Model
Example II:
If we consider the cumulative 1-year gap,
NII = (CGAPone year) R = (-$15 million)(.01)
= -$150,000.
8-24
Rate-Sensitive Assets
Examples from hypothetical balance sheet: Short-term consumer loans. If repriced at year-
end, would just make one-year cutoff. Three-month T-bills repriced on maturity every
3 months. Six-month T-notes repriced on maturity every 6
months. 30-year floating-rate mortgages repriced (rate
reset) every 9 months.
8-25
Rate-Sensitive Liabilities
RSLs bucketed in same manner as RSAs. Demand deposits and passbook savings
accounts warrant special mention. Generally considered rate-insensitive (act as
core deposits), but there are arguments for their inclusion as rate-sensitive liabilities.
FOR NOW, we will treat these as though they reprice overnight
Text assumes that they do not reprice at all
8-26
CGAP Ratio
May be useful to express CGAP in ratio form as,
CGAP/Assets. Provides direction of exposure and Scale of the exposure.
Example- 12 month CGAP: CGAP/A = $15 million / $270 million = 0.056, or
5.6 percent.