Henry Sichel, Angela de Michele Environment and development Wirtschaftuniversitaet - Wien
Henry Sichel, Angela de Michele
Environment and development
Wirtschaftuniversitaet - Wien
• Binding international limits;
• Carbon market;
• Encouraged national strategies
• + 25% CO2
• Only 2.5 bll/$ invested in climate projects • No real cooperation among countries
«We should reconsider trajectories of industrialization and unravel the ties that bound development to carbon»
• Equity; • Climate; • Social/economic development
open issues Trade off? Blocks
Per capita / Historical emissions’ paths
The solution: global collective action (North AND South)
«Developed countries disproportionately
occupy the «available space»»
For 20 years climate change has been an
environmental problem
Hybrid approaches
Right to develop, not to emit
responsibility
capacity
Sustainable development policy
Low carbon trajectories in the
South
Absolute reduction in the North
• «Newly industrializing countries are already large emitters and will increase in the future»
North
• Absolute reductions could lock inequality in perpetuity;
• Developed world increased its emissions while on the developing countries were doing the same
South
Early North’s action
Equity
Pluralism
To make South believe that we are not
displacing responsibility onto them:
… hypotetical band of long-term per
capita emissions?
Opportunities
• Ozone
• Acid rains
• Institutions
• Markets
• technologies
Built on the assumption of
costless carbon…
Now implies adjustment costs
Not that easy
issue…!
These opportunities are not matched by concrete actions up to now
Free-riding behaviours
Burden sharing in public
Exploitation of opportunities in private
Costituencies in a low-carbon future
Process of experimentation Pull-effect
…but to start is important!
< 2 C° - 50% Global
goal Useful for
commitment
Implications for developing countries
(implicit cap)
Development is a process of change, driven from below
Path-dependence = common patterns not so useful
This applies also to developed countries
Development lens
Institutional inertia
Formal rules of the game
Informal norms
can shape
Economic incentives
Institutional transformation
Technological innovations
Low-carbon development
Long-term process
No targets and
timetables
We should internalize the object in the
development process
burocracy
companies
civil society
citizens
• Implementation with minimal adjustments
Short-term policies
• Development through climate lenses
Long-term processes
No top – down planning
No prediction
North
South
Short-term
+ Long-term
• Prioritize predictability
• Setting of objectives for 2020 – 2030
• To provide the track
• Enjoy the «best practices»
• Energy saving (e.g.)
How much?
How to control?
How to monitor?
North South financing
North
South
Points of view
Responsibility
• North is more responsible, but it is politically difficult to lend money without control
Conditionality
• Bypassing democracy to enhance hard reforms = loans for «ownership» of projects
• Set a target to climate mitigation or adaptation
• Limit role for public funds, encouraging market mechanisms
• «we should be paid to help us solving a problem we didn’t contribute to create»
From
Implementing actions determined by donors
To
Organizing funds around a process to encourage the recipient-country
to develop its own agenda
Low-carbon development
Mitigation actions (e.g. energy saving)
The best hypotesis: different mitigation tracks
Developed countries
Fixed emission targets
Certainty Flexibility
Developing countries
Policy based actions, centered on activities instead of emissions
Policy spillovers: e.g., increase in energy
affordability
The best hypotesis
Adaptation assistence plan
Cross-cutting to disseminate technologies
Accountability measures
«Efficiency losses can be a reasonable trade-off to achieve
participation»
Many developing countries
Developing policies
Which indirectly undertake the purpose of emissions’ reductions
Developing countries can contribute in a consistent way through their development objectives
Policies and plans tailored on internal facts and needs
Multiplier of effects coming from the support of developed countries
Not binding targets
Processes
Legal character
Links to provide incentives
Accountability standards
I
The importance of emphasizing our
policies and make them accepted
Is this embedded in the process?
Or an outcome of the process itself?
Indeed, this could reduce every barrier in
negotiation between North and South
Tool-box of proposed policies for developing
countries…
…with simulations of impact
Bali Action Plan
«Nationally appropriate mitigation
COMMITMENTS or actions»
«Nationally appropriate mitigation
actions»
Developing countries
Developed countries
•Actions
Flow of support
•A country may indicate it…
or • Initiate a
review by a third designed body
To evaluate the need of support
Robust EFFORTS can be obtained only with such international support
Bali: Measurable, Reportable, Verifiable
Now Only minimal
communications
Future Rigorous approach
What actions should be measured?
Who is performing verification?
What kind of metrics?
CAPACITY to implement: developing countries need international support
Support will require mechanisms to channel resources and leverage
private investments
1
2
Public finance
Now Pledging Unpredictable and inadequate funds
Future Loans/guarantees/access to
technologies and payment for intellectual property
In all new funds
Kyoto: CDM system, based on emission credits from individual projects, but by this way excluding many other effective strategies
• to enhance resilience;
• to discourage high-emission investments
I Supportive comprehensive
national adaptation strategies
NAPA
Long-term plans to set risks
Needed adaptation capacities
National policies
II
Exchanging best practices Guidance and help in accessing technologies
Support international/national/
regional systems
Regional centers of excellence
III Funds to help countries in implementing
high-priority projects
Donors
CDM
Taxes