Integrating and Evaluating Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in Multiple PSN Strategies in Chicago Chicago Trace Meares Trace Meares Andrew Papachristos Andrew Papachristos University of Chicago University of Chicago Jeffrey Fagan Jeffrey Fagan Columbia University Columbia University
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Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in Chicago Trace Meares Andrew Papachristos University of Chicago Jeffrey Fagan Columbia University.
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Integrating and Evaluating Multiple Integrating and Evaluating Multiple PSN Strategies in ChicagoPSN Strategies in Chicago
Trace MearesTrace Meares
Andrew PapachristosAndrew Papachristos
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago
Jeffrey FaganJeffrey Fagan
Columbia UniversityColumbia University
The Northern District of IllinoisThe Northern District of Illinois Taskforce included:Taskforce included:
Chicago Police DepartmentChicago Police Department ATFATF US Attorney’s Office US Attorney’s Office Cook County State’s Attorney’s OfficeCook County State’s Attorney’s Office Illinois Department of CorrectionsIllinois Department of Corrections Cook County ProbationCook County Probation City OfficialsCity Officials Multiple Community Organizations/ActorsMultiple Community Organizations/Actors Research Partners (University of Chicago Research Partners (University of Chicago
and Columbia University)and Columbia University)
The ProblemThe Problem
Homicides: Guns and Gangs Homicides: Guns and Gangs on the West-Sideon the West-Side
Neighborhood Social Indicators:Neighborhood Social Indicators: DeprivationDeprivation Concentrated ImmigrationConcentrated Immigration Residential StabilityResidential Stability Spatial Lag of beat-level Homicides (Moran’s I)Spatial Lag of beat-level Homicides (Moran’s I)
PSN Treatment VariablesPSN Treatment Variables
1.1. Offender Notification Meetings Offender Notification Meetings – percent of offenders – percent of offenders in beat who have attended a meetingin beat who have attended a meeting
2.2. Federal Prosecutions Federal Prosecutions – number of prosecution in beat – number of prosecution in beat (logged)(logged)
3.3. Federal Prison Sentences Federal Prison Sentences – person-month sentences – person-month sentences (logged)(logged)
4.4. ATF Gun SeizuresATF Gun Seizures – number of guns seized by beat – number of guns seized by beat (logged)(logged)
5.5. Index of Components Index of Components – additive score of where each – additive score of where each beat falls on quintiles of other predictors (ranges from beat falls on quintiles of other predictors (ranges from zero to 20). zero to 20).
Annual Homicide Rates, 1991 to 2004Annual Homicide Rates, 1991 to 2004
PSN Group
Control Group
Other areas of City
PSN BeginsPSN Begins
2040
6080
100
Ho
mic
ide
Rat
e p
er 1
00,0
00
1990 1995 2000 2005year
Change in Neighborhood Homicide Rates, Before Change in Neighborhood Homicide Rates, Before and After Start of PSNand After Start of PSN
PSNPSNNeighborhoodsNeighborhoods
Control Control NeighborhoodsNeighborhoods
-10
-50
510
mea
n o
f ch
ang
e
Change in Monthly Homicide Rates in PSN AreaChange in Monthly Homicide Rates in PSN Area
1st Parolee Forum
1st PSN Prosecution
02
46
810
Hom
icid
e R
ate
per
100,
000
01 Jan 00 01 Jul 01 01 Jan 03 01 Jul 04 01 Jan 06
Figure 3. Change in Quarterly Homicide Figure 3. Change in Quarterly Homicide Rates by Assignment GroupsRates by Assignment Groups
PSN GroupPSN Group
Control GroupControl Group
Rest of CityRest of City
12
34
56
Ho
mic
ide
Rat
e p
er 1
00,0
00
01 Jan 00 01 Jul 01 01 Jan 03 01 Jul 04 01 Jan 06
Summary of FindingsSummary of Findings Find Find negative negative effect on Homicides for:effect on Homicides for:
Forums – largest effect.Forums – largest effect. ProsecutionsProsecutions ATF SeizuresATF Seizures Additive IndexAdditive Index
No significant effect of:No significant effect of: Sentence Length on HomicidesSentence Length on Homicides Any predictor on Agg. Battery and Agg Any predictor on Agg. Battery and Agg
Asslt. Asslt.
Summary of PSN “Treatment” Effects on Quarterly Summary of PSN “Treatment” Effects on Quarterly Neighborhood Homicide RatesNeighborhood Homicide Rates
-1
-40.1
-2.2 -2.7-0.8
-11
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Control
Variables ForumsGun
Recoveries
Prosecutions
Sentence Length
Combined Effect
**N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression
Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN “treatment”
ConclusionsConclusions The observed drop in homicide is larger The observed drop in homicide is larger
in the treatment vs. control area (35 in the treatment vs. control area (35
percent). percent). Find a significant negative relationship Find a significant negative relationship
between various PSN interventions and between various PSN interventions and
homicidehomicide Forums appear to be having the largest Forums appear to be having the largest
effect, effect, butbut there is a clear additive there is a clear additive
effect.effect.
This paper can be found at. . .This paper can be found at. . .
Social Science Research Network:Social Science Research Network:
Recidivism of those who attend the forum as Recidivism of those who attend the forum as
compared to non-attendees?compared to non-attendees?
The Chicago Gun ProjectThe Chicago Gun Project Offender perceptions of legitimacy/legal Offender perceptions of legitimacy/legal
authority?authority? The role of social networks in:The role of social networks in:
Gun marketsGun markets Patterns of OffendingPatterns of Offending Nexus between community and offender capitalNexus between community and offender capital