Integrated multi-scale models of interacting urban meteorology/climate and air quality: Outcomes from MEGAPOLI Alexander BAKLANOV, Danish Meteorological Institute and MEGAPOLI consortium (see: http://megapoli.info) 14th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes 2-6 October 2011, Kos Island, Greece
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Integrated multi-scale models of interacting
urban meteorology/climate and air quality:
Outcomes from MEGAPOLI
Alexander BAKLANOV,
Danish Meteorological Institute
and MEGAPOLI consortium(see: http://megapoli.info)
14th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion
Modelling for Regulatory Purposes
2-6 October 2011, Kos Island, Greece
Megacities: Emissions, Impact on Air Quality and
Climate, and Improved Tools for Mitigation
Assessments (MEGAPOLI)EC 7FP project for: ENV.2007.1.1.2.1. Megacities and regional hot-
spots air quality and climate
Project duration: 2008 – 2011; Budget: 5,1 mln. Euro
27 European research organisations from 11 countries are involved
Coordinator: A. Baklanov (DMI)
Vice-coordinators: M. Lawrence (MPIC) and S. Pandis (FORTH)
• Effects of pollutants (aerosols) on urban meteorology and climate,
• Urban effects on clouds, precipitation and thunderstorms.
WMO, GURME
Why do cities have a different climate ?
…and air quality ?
ACCENT, 2009
MEGAPOLI Emission Inventories
TNO: Denier van der Gon et al.
Ile de France emissions of PM10
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Energ
y indu
stry
Res
iden
tial c
ombu
stion
Indu
stria
l com
bustion
Indu
stria
l pro
cess
es
Fugitive
s
Solve
nt use
Roa
d tra
nspo
rt
Oth
er tr
ansp
ort
Was
te
Agricultu
re
Nat
ural /
Other
SNAP
Em
iss
ion
(to
n)
TNO_MP_2005
AirParif
• In MEGAPOLI a state-of-the-art (global and) regional European (7x7km) emission data base was combined and cross-checked with bottom-up emission inventories (1x1km) for Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr area (Germany) and the Po-valley (Italy).
• The allocation of the emission in the regional down-scaled inventory can deviate substantially (up to a factor of 4) from the MC bottom-up inventories.
• The major discrepancies caused by e.g. residential combustion and industry sectors were documented and explained.
• Emission inventories are not consistent across scales and this is likely to have significant impact on predicted air pollution and exposure levels.
• Comparing various MC emission estimates patterns provided better insight in per capita emissions and knowledge gaps for global MC-scale assessments.
Lead by TNO Team: H. Denier van der Gone et al.
What are the major gaps in MC emissions?
• Compared 3 global EIs and 2 city-level inventories: large differences (factor of 2)
• GEIs underestimate emissions from European and Chinese MCs and overestimate emissions in LA and in Asia (except China)
• MCs in Europe and N & S America, transport is dominating for CO and NOx; in Asia and Africa: CO - dominated by residential biofuel use, NOx - industrial emissions
Key gaps in our knowledge:
• initial process of developing emissions databases
• variation in fuels, its quality and appliance types between MC and country
• identifying which emissions should be associated with MCs
• notable differences in per capita emissions from the various MCs: reasons?
=> Recommendations for how to reduce or minimize emissions in MCs
(Butler et al., Atmos. Env., 42 (2008) 1593–1606)
Average emission of Black Carbon varies from 0.4 kg/capita
in MCs of Europe to 1.2 kg/capita in Asian MCs, respectively
H. Denier van der Gone, TNO
Global to City Scale Urban Anthropogenic Heat Flux
Difference in annual average QF (W m-2) between the model presented
by Flanner (2009) and LUCY (spatial resolution = 0.5°) for global
urban areas.
MEGAPOLI rep. D1.4: L Allen et al., KCL, 2010
An anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) model
(0.25 x 0.25 arc-minute resolution) was
developed and used to compute the AHF
inventories for Europe and London.
QF at OA level within Greater
London in 2005. Values in W m-2.
0 5 10 15 20 25
05
10152025303540455055606570758085
Qf
(w m
-2)
Hour
Motorcycle
Taxis
Carpetrol
Cardiesel
Bus
LGVpetrol
LGVdiesel
Rigid
Artic
Total
Average daily profiles of QF (w m-2)
by vehicle type in London
• Multi-scale inventories/models for
AHF are available for megacity,
regional and global scale modelling
• Results are used in Enviro-
HIRLAM for urban (Paris, etc.) and
regional scale studies
Anthropogenic Heat ScalingD
ecre
asin
g A
nth
ropogenic
Heat
Flu
x
Increasing Area
(Lindberg, Grimmond, Kotthaus, Allen in preparation)
Testing with Different Urbanizations:
• Simple modification of land surface schemes (AHF+R+A)
• Medium-Range Forecast Urban Scheme (MRF-Urban)
• Building Effect Parameterization (BEP)
• Town Energy Budget (TEB) scheme
• Soil Model for Sub-Meso scales Urbanised version (SM2-U)
• UM Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES)
• Urbanized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM)
•CFD type Micro-scale model for urban environment (M2UE)
• Single-layer and slab/bulk-type UC
schemes,
• Multilayer UC schemes,
• Obstacle-resolved microscale models
Strategy to urbanize different modelsAvailable models
Co
mp
uta
tio
na
l R
eq
uir
em
en
ts
Number of Parameters
Co
mp
uta
tio
na
l R
eq
uir
em
en
ts
Number of Parameters
Parameters difficult
to get?
Too expensive to run?
Globally more
applicable?
Parameters difficult
to get?
Parameters difficult
to get?
Too expensive to run?Too expensive to run?
Globally more
applicable?
Globally more
applicable?
Hierarchy of Urbanization Approaches (D2.2 Rep: Mahura and Baklanov, 2010)
Scales
Urban Modules
Local
Street District
SM2-U
BEP
MRF-UrbanMOSES
PALM
AHF+R+A
Urban
City/ Megacity
Regional
Megacity/ Large Metropolitan Area
Global
Climate-Meso-LES-
≤0.1km 10-15km 25-50km
Resolutions
3-5km1-3km0.1-1km
Computational time (1 urban grid cell)
TEB
M2UE
Integrated (On-line Coupled) Modeling System for Predicting Atmospheric Composition
Enviro-HIRLAM : Environment – HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model
Started by DMI Team 10 years ago (Chenevez et al, 2004; Baklanov et al, 2008; Korsholm et al, 2009)
+ joined by countries of the HIRLAM Consortium HIRLAM Chemical Branch
+ joined: Russian State HydroMet Univ, Univ Tartu, Univ Vilnus, Odessa State Envir Univ