Integrated Ecological Economic Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest By By Rosimeiry Portela Rosimeiry Portela At At Conservation Conservation International International Washington, DC Washington, DC July, 2005 July, 2005
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Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest
Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest. By Rosimeiry Portela At Conservation International Washington, DC July, 2005. Introduction. UC Davis. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon
RainforestRainforest
By By Rosimeiry PortelaRosimeiry Portela
AtAtConservation InternationalConservation International
Washington, DCWashington, DCJuly, 2005July, 2005
IntroductionIntroduction
The Amazon tropical rain forest: Largest tract of tropical forest on Earth with half of the species of the world.
Vegetation: Regional pattern of precipitation and radiation and and regulation of GHGs.
Plant animal interactions and nutrient cycling.
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ATLANTIC
OCEAN
VENEZUELA
COLOMBIA
PERU
BOL IVI A
BRAZI L
GUYANA
SURINAMEFRENCHGUIANA
Jauru
MARABA
Xapuri
Vilhena
CACERES
Altamira
Xinguara
Normandia
Caracarai
Ariquemes
Itaituba
Tarauaca
RIO BRANCO
Porto Velho
NOVOARIPUANA
ALTOARAGUAIA
SenaMadureira
Sao Joaode Pirabas
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Miles
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Kilometers
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AMAZONASPARA
MATOGROSSO
TOCANTINS
MARANHAO
ACRERONDONIA
AMAPARORAIMA
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BSRS IBasi c Science and Remote Sensing Initiative
““To try to understand the structure and function To try to understand the structure and function of …(the Amazon) is comparable to composing a of …(the Amazon) is comparable to composing a
mosaic picture.mosaic picture.
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RUMBA: Integrating functions of the RUMBA: Integrating functions of the ecosystem to human economy and social ecosystem to human economy and social
interactions…interactions…
…with the main focus on the contribution of the ecosystem goods and functions to human economy and welfare.
Forest is cleared at Forest is cleared at a faster rate under a faster rate under scenarios of scenarios of increased increased development.development.2050: Baseline: 26 2050: Baseline: 26 thousand kmthousand km2 2 yryr-1-1-3500
-2500
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3500
km2
Research Results: Research Results: Annual Deforestation RatesAnnual Deforestation Rates
Deforested areas Deforested areas under scenarios of under scenarios of increased increased development are development are higher than those higher than those of conservation and of conservation and BaselineBaseline
Deforestation in Scenario in Relation Baseline Deforestation in Scenario in Relation Baseline (2100)(2100)
Results: Compensation for Avoided DeforestationResults: Compensation for Avoided Deforestation
Gains to the regional economy from forest conversion against losses associated with emissions
Scenario 3 (2005-2091) Forest spared from deforestation
: 210 thousand km2
Avoided Emissions: 3.0 Pg C
Foregone economic growth: US$ 1.7 Trillion
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Amazon Deforestation: Amazon Deforestation: 0.3 Pg C yr0.3 Pg C yr-1-1
Kyoto Target:Kyoto Target:0.5 Pg C yr0.5 Pg C yr-1-1
Results: Single Compensation for Results: Single Compensation for Avoided EmissionAvoided Emission
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1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100Year
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ion
US$
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GRP/BASELINEGRP/SCENARIO 3GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($10/tonne C)GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($100/tonne C)GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($200/tonne C)
Results: Continuous Compensation for Results: Continuous Compensation for Avoided EmissionAvoided Emission
Discussion: Main FindingsDiscussion: Main Findings
Increasing land use change in the Brazilian Amazon incurs significant losses without this being adequately offset by increasing monetary income or welfare of people of the region.
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In the absence of significant incentives from global beneficiaries for any one ecosystem service or a combination of incentives addressing several ecosystem services, rational uses at the local level lead to sub optimal uses from the global perspective.
Discussion: AlternativesDiscussion: Alternatives
Effective Comand and Control Regulations
Efficient Market-Based Instruments: Carbon-offsetting trading Conservation Concession Timber Certification Fair Trade Secure Property Rights Tradeable Development Rights
International Grants Resources Global Forestry Agreements
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Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions Deforestation proceeds at high rates in
the Brazilian Amazon
The region suffers significant climate changes and losses of forest services as a result of forest removal
Increasing regional economic growth is not translated into increasing monetary income and welfare
Protection of forest will require a concerted long-term effort
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Model Limitations and CaveatsModel Limitations and Caveats
RUMBA: A unified metamodel
Use of average parameters; Assumptions to model processes that are
poorly understood; Linearly homogeneous production functions; Sensitivity of production limits of biosphere
to climate variables; Sensitivity of economic production to climate
variables and decreasing stocks of natural capital;
A economic distribution function.
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‘What we are doing to the forest of the world is but a
mirror reflection of what we are doing to ourselves