Integrated Assessment Modelling Activities in India in 2014-15 P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Shivika Mittal National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan Presented in The 21th AIM International Workshop National Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Nov 13-14, 2015
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Integrated Assessment Modelling Activities in India in 2014-15
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India
Shivika MittalNational Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukuba, Japan
Presented in The 21th AIM International WorkshopNational Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Nov 13-14, 2015
Overview of Activities (2014-15)
1. Research and Dissemination• Modelling exercises
INDC National Level-Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) Sectoral & Sub-National Level Assessments
• LCS-RNet and LOCAR-Net: Linking Research & International Policymaking
2. Year 2015-16: Way Forward
INDC Target (Quantitative)
Base year: 2005Target year: 2030
Quantitative Features:1. 33-35% reduction of CO2 Intensity of GDP
2. 40% Electric Power Capacity from non-fossil sources
3. Additional Carbon Sink (2.5 to 3 Bil. Ton of CO2 by 2030)
Emissions Target (2030)
2005 2010 2030Intensity Index 100 91.21 65 67
CO2e (Bt) 1.41 1.98 5.97 6.15
GDP (Tr. Rs - 2004-05) 35.43 52.83 230.59 230.59
CO2e/GDP (Ton/Mil Rs) 39.83 37.48 25.89 26.68
Population (Billion) 1.12 1.19 1.475 1.475
CO2e/Capita (Ton) 1.25 1.66 4.05 4.17
NATIONAL LEVEL
Alternative Development Pathways
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable
2010 2030 2050
Mill
ion
Tons
Gas
Oil
Coal
DDPP: Energy related CO2 Emissions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable
2010 2030 2050
Mt C
O2 Agriculture
Transport
Industry
Commercial
Residential
DDPP: CO2 Emissions by Sector
Air Pollution & Energy Security Co-benefitss
2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 saved (Million tCO2) 370.6 671.8 918.9 1049.4Revenue from CO2 saved(Bn US $ 2010) 16.6 45.1 82.3 152.9
Revenue as % of GDP 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Revenues from carbon saved in Sustainable Scenario
Co-benefits: Social Value of Carbon
SECTORAL & SUB-NATIONAL LEVEL
Air pollution co-benefits of low carbon policies in road transport : a subnational assessment for India
Industrialized and economically Advanced
regionsLess developed regions
Passenger Transport Demand
CO2 Emissions
Economically Advanced region Less developed region
CO2
PM
NOx
Air Quality Co-benefits
Low carbon urban transport scenarios for China and India: A comparative assessment
Urban Passenger Transport Demand
Technology Mix
Energy MixChina India
Year 2015-16: Way Forward1. India national and subnational Low Carbon Scenarios and Plans to align
with Global Stabilization Target
2. Comparative Cross-country Assessments
3. Cooperation during Participation in International Projects
• MILES Project• Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)• CD-Links Project
4. New research agenda related to sustainable development and climate change
5. Capacity Building and Dissemination
Thank You
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