INSURANCE SECTOR OUTLOOK ON EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE RELATED COSTS DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE RELATED COSTS 17 N b 2009 K l h Petra Löw 17 November 2009, Karlsruhe
INSURANCE SECTOR OUTLOOK ON EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE RELATED COSTSDEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE RELATED COSTS
17 N b 2009 K l hPetra Löw17 November 2009, Karlsruhe
Agenda
Geo Risks Research Department and NatCatSERVICE
Trend analyes about natural catastrophesTrend analyes about natural catastrophes
Estimation for overall and insured losses
Marine business and weather events
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Munich Re international
Munich RE• Founded 1880• Largest Reinsurer worldwide• Largest Reinsurer worldwide• Reinsurance Premium Income 22 bn EuroL di I f t l h d• Leading Insurer of natural hazards
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Munich Re international
Atlan taChicagoColumbusHartfordKansas CityMontreal
HongkongKalkuttaMontreal
New YorkPhiladelphiaPrincetonSan FranciscoTorontoVancouver
KalkuttaKuala LumpurMumbaiPekingSchanghaiSeoulSingapurTaipehT ki
MünchenAthenGenfLondonLissabonMadridMailandMalta TokioMoskauParisWarschau
AccraJ h b
Malta
Zürich
BogotáBuenos AiresCaracasMexikoSantiago de ChileSão Paulo
AucklandMelbournePerthSydney
JohannesburgKapstadtNairobiPort Louis
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Main tasks and responsibilities of GEO/CCC
Coordination and steering of all activities and projects in the „Strategic C t Topic“ climate change
Central contact for all questions on climate change, both external and internal
Corporate Climate Centre1
Screening of science in respect to new findings and trendsInitiiation of research cooperations Assessment and forwarding of new findings to CU
GEO Research 2
Maintenance and marketing of the world‘s largest NatCat-DatabasePerform analyses (temporal trends, regional, peril specific)Maintenance of a download center in the internet
NatCatSERVICE3
Editing of Topics GEO and special publicationsGEO appearance in Intra- and InternetPresentations, Media contacts
Communication 4Presentations, Media contacts
Maintenance of the archive on natural perils Paper archive: countires, topics (350 shelf meters) Geo-Archives5Electronic archive: new scientific publications , media reports …
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Geo Risks Research Department
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes 2009W ldWorldmap
2009 850 t l t t hGeophysical events(E th k t i l i ti )
Significant natural catastrophes (selection)
Great natural catastrophes: 2009 t t th i t “G t t l
2009: 850 natural catastrophes (Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption)Meteorological events(Storm)Hydrological events(Flood mass movement)2009 no event met the requirement “Great natural
catastrophe”(Flood, mass movement)Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Number of data sets
Year Number of data setsYear Number of data sets
0079 - 999 30
1000 - 1499 200
1500 1899 1 0001500 - 1899 1 000
1900 - 1949 1 00026,000 data sets
1950 - 1979 2 120
1980 2008 19 500
Each year about 800 events are documented.
1980 - 2008 19 500
y
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Definition - Breakdown into catastrophe categories
Catastrophe class Overall losses and/or f t litifatalities
Loss profile 1980s* 1990s* 2000 – 2008*
0 Natural event No property damage - - - none
1 Small-scale loss event Small-scale property damage
- - - 1-9
2 Moderate loss event Moderate property and structural damage
- - - > 10
3 Severe catastrophe Severe property,infrastructure and structural damage
US$ >25m US$ > 40m US$ > 50m > 20
4 Major catastrophe Major property, US$ > 85m US$ > 160m US$ > 200m > 1004 Major catastrophe Major property, infrastructure and structural damage
US$ 85m US$ 160m US$ 200m 100
5 Devastating catastrophe
Devastating losses within the affected
US$ > 275m US$ > 400m US$ > 500m > 500p
region
6 Great naturalcatastrophe „GREAT disaster“
Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary,thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude.
* Losses adjusted to the decade average.© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Definition „Great natural catastrophes“
(In keeping with United Nations definition criteria)
The affected region's ability to help itself is distinctly overtaxed
Interregional or international assistance necessary
Thousands are killed
Hundreds of thousands are made homelessHundreds of thousands are made homeless
Substantial economic losses
Considerable insured losses
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2009N b f t ith t dNumber of events with trend
16
12
14
umbe
r
8
10
Nu
4
6
2
4
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2009O ll d i d l ith t dOverall and insured losses with trend
200
220
160
180
200
S$bn
100
120
140
US
60
80
100
20
40
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Overall losses (in 2009 values) Insured losses (in 2009 values)
Trend insured lossesTrend overall losses
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Global natural catastrophes 2009P t di t ib ti f i d l ti tPercentage distribution of insured losses per continent
60%
28%7%
5%
Continent Number of events Fatalities Overall losses Insured lossesUS$ m US $ m
Africa 78 730 375 -
America 312 865 22.000 12.000
Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at February 2010
Australia/Oceania 76 770 2.070 950
Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000
NatCatSERVICE
Entry details: example Hurrican Ike
Affected lines of business
Affected people
Affected infrastructure
Affected buildings
Number of deaths
Event description
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Example: Hurrican Ike
30/o09/2008
Overall losses
Insured losses
Munich Re shareAdditional loss information
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Loss estimation & updatesDevelopment of insured losses: example EQ Northride 1994
Development of insured losses
p p
11 2
15.3
11.712.514
16
$ bn
7.2 7.49.0
11.210.4
8
10
12
US
$
2.8
4.55.5
2
4
6
0
2
eb. 9
4
Apr.
94
une
94
ug. 9
4
ep. 9
4
Oct
. 94
an. 9
5
rch
95
May
95
uly
95
Apr.
98
Fe A Ju Au Se O Ja
Mar M J A
Sources: Insurance Information Institute from ISO/PCS reports, MR NatCatSERVICE
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
NatCatSERVICE
Access&User
Clients
Analysts, investorsStaff
ScienceGeneral public NatCatSERVICE
Political committees
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Floods in Europe August 2002
LossesLossesFatalities: >100Overall losses:
A t i 3 0 M d €Insured losses:
- Austria: 3,0 Mrd. €- Czech Rep.: 3,0 Mrd. €- Germany: 11,8 Mrd. €
- Austria: 0,4 Mrd. €- Czech Rep.: 1,2 Mrd. €
Germany: 1 8 Mrd €Germany: 11,8 Mrd. €- Europe: 21,2 Mrd. €
- Germany: 1,8 Mrd. €- Europe: 3,4 Mrd. €
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Tranport system stopped because of low water level
Transport-business interrupted
Normaly after 14 days:Normaly after 14 days:Cargo traffic: 3.000 € per dayP t ffi 8 000 25 000 € dPassenger traffic: 8.000 – 25.000 € per day
Insured losses 2003: 40m €Insured losses 2003: 40m €Munich Re losses 2003: 3.5m €
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Climate change and the hurricane activity atthe Atlantic Ocean
25Hurricane and Tropical Storm
20
Hurricane and Tropical StormHurricaneHurricane (SS3,4,5)
15
hl
Warm-phase
Kalt-phase
Warm-phase
Averageb f
Warm-phase
Kalt-phase
10
Anz
a number ofstrong hurricaneper year
52,6/Jahr
3,8/Jahr
per year(SS 3-5)
1 5/J h01850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
,1,5/Jahr1,2/Jahr1,5/Jahr
Jahr
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Climate change and the hurricane activity atthe Atlantic Ocean
Klimaveränderungen und
Transportversicherung
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Climate change and the hurricane activity atthe Atlantic Ocean
H i I S t 2004Hurricane Ivan Sept. 2004:150 Oil platforms and 10.000 miles ofpipeline were affected.p p
US$ 2 5 – 3bn insured loses at
Klimaveränderungen und
Transportversicherung
US$ 2,5 – 3bn insured loses atOffshore Marine/Energy.
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009
Thank you very much !Petra LöwPetra Löw
GEO/CCC1 – NatCatSERVICEGEO/CCC1 NatCatSERVICETel. 3759
© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009