INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (IMEMO) RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES ALEXANDER DYNKIN.

INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (IMEMO) RELATIONS (IMEMO)

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCESRUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

ALEXANDER DYNKINALEXANDER DYNKIN

Картина мира, сущностно понятая, означает не картину, изображающую мир, а мир, понятый в смысле такой картины.

М.Хайдеггер

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• IDEOLOGY

• ECONOMY

• SOCIAL TRENDS

• INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM

• COUNTRIES AND REGIONS

• CONCLUSIONS FOR RUSSIA. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

CONTENTS and METHODOLOGYCONTENTS and METHODOLOGY

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Без сценариев судного дня и апокалипсиса

Без пасторали

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Мы избегаем популистских сценариевМы избегаем популистских сценариев

•Evolutionary trend as the basic trend of the world development.

•System failures and crises in certain countries and regions will not have a great influence on the evolutionary logic, but possibly strengthen it.

•Enhancing the quality of new trends of globalization in all spheres: politics, ideology, economy, security, social development.

•Polycentricism and speeding up hierarchical world order changes of the post-bipolar world.

Working hypothesis Working hypothesis of the Outlookof the Outlook

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World economy – average projectedWorld economy – average projected GDP growth rates by region, %GDP growth rates by region, %

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No principal changes Dramatic changes

Развитые страны Развивающиеся страны

GDP, $ bln in PPP and prices of 2009 World population structure, % 8

Developed and developing countries?Developed and developing countries?

Global economyGlobal economy

•The pace of world economic growth will be higher than in 1990-2010. It will lead to a certain doubling of global GDP.

•The world economy will grew annually by an amount approximately equal to the GDP of modern Germany each year.

•Economic growth will be provided with improved productivity and efficiency of investment, the serious resource constraints will not occur.

•Knowledge and Innovation – the main sources of efficiency gains. •Possible issues – the global regulation mismatch of the second phase of globalization, especially in the financial sector, strengthening the structural imbalances of the world economy.

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ВВП, млрд долл., в ценах и по ППС 2009 года

ВВП, млрд долл., по среднегодовым курсам 2009 года

США ЕС 27 Китай Россия

Расчеты по ППС и по официальным курсам (дуализм сопоставлений) меняют соотношение Китай-США-ЕС, положение России по сравнению с ними меняется мало

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Производительность труда, тыс. долл. на одного занятого

Развитые страны сохранят или усилят отрыв по уровню и эффективности развития

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Shares in global R&D expenditures, %12

Global leaders will force R&D and innovation Global leaders will force R&D and innovation programs; China and India are programs; China and India are

growing very rapidly growing very rapidly

• The United States will maintain the role of world leader in the broadest range of R&D and innovation

• The European Union will generally maintain its position in certain R&D areas

• China will greatly accelerate its technological progress, but will still lag behind the US and the EU in national system of innovation

• Japan, as before, will be engaged in research activities in a limited range of fields of knowledge, and more productive in engineering and promotion of innovative products and services

• Many medium and small highly developed countries will open new opportunities for themselves in a number of narrow niches, due to rapid progress in the incremental innovations

Leaders of R&D and innovation in theLeaders of R&D and innovation in the next twenty yearsnext twenty years

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Science. National and International Co-authorsipScience. National and International Co-authorsip

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International Co-authorship. Strengthening International Co-authorship. Strengthening global knowledge netglobal knowledge net

1998

2009

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By 2030, the world will not suffer from the shortage of energy resources.

 • The major issue will be the cost of the resources• The need to improve energy effectiveness and decarbonisation

policy will encourage a search for technological breakthroughs • Results of a breakthrough in many fields of alternative-noncarbon

energy will be felt generally by the most developed countries, but this will not happen until 2030.

• However, technological change will allow to make more effective utilization of non-traditional hydrocarbons carriers, in particular, shale gas, coal bed methane etc.

Energy Resources SupplyEnergy Resources Supply

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Key social changes

1991-2010 2011-2030Growth in the global middle class and its expansion outside the community of developed countries

Growing stratification of the global middle class along with the increase of its population in absolute terms

The poor make up to 30% of the world population (15% – those on the verge of survival)

A decline in the weight of the poor to 20% and 10%, respectively

Gradual development of a new class of millionaires, growing on a mass scale mainly in the USA, the EU and Japan

Rapid increase in the number of millionaires, first of all in China, India, Brazil and Russia

Most of the super-rich in the world are citizens of the United States

Accelerated increase in the number of the super-rich due to billionaires in China and other rapidly growing economies

Social developmentSocial development

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• The middle class will increase on the global scale and will set the pace and quality of growth in social standards

• Development of the economy of innovations is creating social “dividing strips” in developed countries. Jobs in many professions become needless, or get filled by low-skilled and low-paid immigrants

• Social stratification is expanding in the world not only along the line of “rich countries – poor countries”. The rich in poor countries must, as well as the rich countries themselves, take responsibility for the destiny of “the world poor”.

• The problem of “corporate citizenship” will obtain new forms: benefits enjoyed by those employed by transnational corporations do not apply to all others.

Guidelines for social policy Guidelines for social policy

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• The main trend - drift towards “soft” and “smart” powers in foreign policy with following instruments:

• Financial and economic superiority

• Science and technological advancements

• Cultural and educational

• Promotion of ideological influence

International security system International security system

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The USA: global military, innovative, financial and economic leader with significant “soft power”

The USA: global military, innovative, financial and economic leader with significant “soft power”

The EU: institutionalized common political and economic entity with

characteristics of a “collective actor”

The EU: institutionalized common political and economic entity with

characteristics of a “collective actor”

China: growing global actor with the potential

for leadership role

China: growing global actor with the potential

for leadership role

Russia: natural resources, nuclear power, some R&D potential, link between Europe and Pacific Asia

Russia: natural resources, nuclear power, some R&D potential, link between Europe and Pacific Asia

Groups of miscellaneous regional leaders with global influence: current – India, Brazil, Germany, Japan; potential – South Africa, Turkey and South Korea

Groups of miscellaneous regional leaders with global influence: current – India, Brazil, Germany, Japan; potential – South Africa, Turkey and South Korea

Groups of countries differing in their resource availability and power potential with limited capabilities to influence on regional and global political and economic

processes

Hierarchical Hierarchical International System of International System of Polycentric World Polycentric World:: Interstate Level Interstate Level

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• During next twenty years, Russia should efficiently adapt its domestic and foreign strategy to main trends in global development in order to avoid

finding itself in a marginal position, to cope with future risks and to exploit

new opportunities coming from globalization

Conclusions for Russia Conclusions for Russia risks and opportunities risks and opportunities

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Risks Opportunities

Spreading of radical nationalist ideas, concepts of exceptionality, confrontational self-identification in Russia

Self-identification of Russia as a Euro-Pacific nation, a part of global civilization based on European values

A renaissance of the most radical ideas of “equality” and “fairness”

An extensive multilateral dialog on ideology and values with global leaders and other interested nations

A clerical swing of social conscience in the society. Inter-confessional conflicts

Cooperation with the United States, the EU, China and India in resistance to aggressive Islamism

Messsage: It is necessary to reform political, social, legal and educational institutions according with principles of globalization and non-destabilizing inequality

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Conclusions for Russia: risks and Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. Ideologyopportunities. Ideology

Challenges.The strategy of innovation is directly affecting current interests of the Russian oligarchy. To determine the balance between their interests and long-term interests of the economy in whole is a political task. Second, an idea of a twin-vector economic strategy

(can arouse fears that the country may disintegrate and can inspire opposition.

RISKS OPPORTUNITIESConservation of the resource-based

economy, Dutch deceaseModernization and reindustrialization

based on technological integration with the world centers of innovations

Financial and economic losses and marginalization because of limited participation in the processes of integration in Europe and Pacific Asia

A twin-vector economic strategy aimed at integrative cooperation of Russia with both the EU and Pacific Asia

Lagging behind in participation in multilateral economic forums and global governance system

Participation in regional (the EU, Pacific Asia) and global financial rescue funds

PetroState. Crude oil prices decline. High inflation. Living standarts deteriration.

Emerging role of the Russian ruble as a regional currency in trade and financial transactions on the basis of changes in the structure of economy and exports and effective national financial system

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Conclusions for Russia: risks and Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. World Economyopportunities. World Economy

Risks OpportunitiesAn irreversible lag in the development of a middle class. Sliding down in population size, quality of life and the spread of poverty to the level of developing economies Brain drain Negative consequences of the conflict between the interests of the global super-rich and the interests of national governments and societies

To speed up middle class formation and to raise the quality of life, relying on:

�implementation of innovation and re-industrialisation strategy;�expansion of activity of small and medium-size businesses;�renunciation of bureaucratic dominance – de-bureaucratization

Abstaining from the creation of a new global social system.

Lagging behind the global trends in education, public health, and welfare

To improve education, medical and social services, using international experience and coordinating social policy with Russia’s neighbors in Europe and Pacific Asia

To move to a fully-fledged civil society

Challenge: to reform the existing institutions and avoid a conflict between the civil society and bureaucracy. The latter will suffer personal losses from the narrowing of its functions. Society, must have effective bureaucracy 25

Conclusions for Russia: risks and Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. Social trendsopportunities. Social trends

Risks OpportunitiesRising tensions with the USA in nuclear-

missile balancing, in missile defence, in global and regional security issues

To unite efforts with global leaders and ensure global and regional security in multi-civilizational, polycentric and competitive global order

Worsening of relations:� with the EU caused by regional problems, energy security, enlargement of NATO, and emerging of a new European security system without Russia;� with China – caused by tensions in Central Asia and border problems;� with Japan – caused by the territorial issue

To successively create a new architecture of security and cooperation in Europe

To change strategic nature of Russian-American relations from mutual nuclear deterrence towards mutual nuclear security and cooperation in the BMD

Confrontation around the development of the Oceans, the Arctic, the Antarctic and Outer Space

To foster ecologically balanced multilateral cooperation in development of the Oceans, the Arctic, the Antarctic and Outer Space

Challenge:To overcome or to limit Russia’s traditional perceptions of the United States and China as potential antagonists while formulating conceptual basis of

foreign policy and strategy26

Conclusions for Russia: Conclusions for Russia: risks and opportunities. Foreign policyrisks and opportunities. Foreign policy