Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT Policy Instruments for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport Chris Nash
Dec 21, 2015
Institute for Transport StudiesFACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT
Policy Instruments for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport
Chris Nash
Changes in EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990-2006
Data source: EEA 2008. Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2008http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/PivotApp/pivot.aspx?pivotid=455
EU27 passenger km (1995-2007 % growth)
Car 21.4
2 wheeler 24.8
Bus and coach 6.9
Rail 12.7
Tram and metro 20.1
Air 70.4
Sea -7.7
Total 22.3
Source: Eurostat
EU27 freight tonne km (1995-2007 % growth)
Road 49.6
Rail 17.1
IWW 15.6
Pipelines 12.1
Sea 37.0
Air 55.0
Total 38.0
Source: Eurostat
Transport demand growth Britain 1977-2007 (% change over preceding 10 years)
Freight Passenger
1987 16 31
1997 20 22
2007 9 12
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 2008
Transport demand growth by mode Britain1997-2007 (% change)
Freight Passenger
Road 10 car 9
bus 14
Rail 24 41
Source Transport Statistics Great Britain 2008
Energy Consumption by Mode, inter city passenger transport 2010
Intercity train High speed train
Air (500 km) Diesel car on motorway
Seating capacity 434 377 99 5
Load factor 44% 49% 70% 36%
Primary energy (MJ per seat km)
0.22 0.53 1.8 0.34
(MJ per passenger km)
0.5 1.08(0.76*)
2.57 0.94
*At 70% load factor
Source: Derived from CE Delft (2003)
Energy consumption by mode – city commuting 2010
Metro Tram City bus Diesel car
Seating capacity 120 180 48 5
Load factor 35% 30% 33% 23%
Primary energy (MJ per seat km)
0.24 0.21 0.30 0.52
(MJ per passenger km)
0.69 0.70 0.91 2.26
Source: derived from CE Delft (2003)
Energy consumption by mode – long distance non bulk freight 2010
HGV Electric train Diesel train Inland Waterway
Capacity tonnes 27 790 790 2575
Load factor 62% 44% 44% 32%
Primary energyMJ per tonne km
0.86 0.49 0.56 1.11
Source: CE Delft (2003)
Policy Instruments - price
•Road transport already subject to:
•Value added tax
•Fuel tax
•Annual licence duty
•Sales tax
•And in some cases
•Road pricing
•Heavy goods vehicle kilometre charge
Impact of road fuel price on demand
Elasticities with respect to fuel price
Short run Long run
Road transport fuel demand 0.25 0.77
Car km 0.15 0.31
Source: Graham and Glaister (2004)
Air transport elasticities with respect to fare
Business 0.5
Leisure 1.3
Source: Riddington (2006)
EU Policy
•Adopted short run marginal cost cost-pricing as basis of policy (White Papers in 1998 and 2001)
•Legislation exists on rail and heavy goods vehicles
•Subsidiarity applies in the case of cars
•International agreements on air and water transport preclude fuel tax or VAT (strictly only for international transport but often applies to domestic as well)
Road pricing
•Several Norwegian cities, Central London and Stockholm have implemented urban road pricing
•London and Stockholm achieved a 20% reduction in traffic
•Funding used to improve roads and/or public transport
•But extension difficult in terms of acceptability (Edinburgh, Manchester)
•Several countries (Switzerland, Austria, Germany) have a km charge for goods vehicles
•Some countries considering country wide road pricing for all vehicles (Netherlands)
Marginal social cost
•The Marginal social costs of road transport depend on:
•Congestion, which varies with vehicle type and traffic volume;
•Road damage, which is sensitive to axle load and road quality;
•Environmental and accident costs, which vary widely with vehicle type and geographical location.
Marginal social costs for car transport (example) (euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Interurban petrol GRACE car petrol EV
Peak Off-Peak
Noise 0.005 0.009
Congestion 0.123 0.002
Accident 0.008 0.008
Air pollution 0.001 0.001
Climate change 0.005 0.005
Wear and tear 0.019 0.019
0.161 0.044
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Cost and charges for car transport (euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Tolls 0.046
Fuel tax 0.056
Vehicle excise duty 0.012
Total 0.114
Peak cost 0.161
Off peak cost 0.044
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Marginal social costs for heavy goods vehicles (example) (euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Interurban diesel GRACE HGV>18 Euro II
Peak Off-Peak
Noise 0.036 0.059
Congestion 0.657 0.009
Accident 0.050 0.050
Air pollution 0.031 0.031
Climate change 0.021 0.021
W&T 0.151 0.151
0.946 0.321
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Cost and Charges for heavy goods vehicles transport (euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Tolls 0.092
Fuel tax 0.050
Vehicle excise duty 0.021
Total 0.163
Peak costs 0.946
Off peak costs 0.321
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Modelled impact of road pricing Europe-wide (IASON/TIPMAC)
•Biggest traffic reduction in core countries – they benefit more than periphery
•Reassignment of traffic from urban to rural areas
•Higher proportion of large trucks
•6% of road tonne km diverted to rail and water
•But 50% of traffic reduction comes from changing distribution systems and more local sourcing of inputs and consumer goods
Charging for externalities in other modes
•Rail
•Electricity part of the emissions trading scheme
•Tax on diesel for rail transport very variable
•Air
•Fuel untaxed
•Departure taxes in some countries
•To join emissions trading scheme in 2012
•Water?
Policy instruments - regulation
•New vehicle standards
•Why needed given fuel tax?
•Payback period
•Discount rates
•Second hand market
•Land use controls
•Is higher density developments one reason for the success in restraining traffic growth in Britain?
•Are other European countries still in the phase of urban sprawl?
Policy Instruments - investment
•Roads
•Reduced congestion means less CO2 but
•Roads generate traffic
•Investment needs to be combined with efficient pricing
•Airports
•Investment needed but combined with efficient pricing
•Public transport
•Of extra rail traffic following urban investment,
•41% from bus
•33% from car
•1% from walking/cycling
•24% generated
•Alternative technologies
•Do need start up funding (e.g. distribution networks, refuelling)
Conclusions
•The most obvious policy instrument is price
•But does need to be combined with regulation (mainly new vehicle standards) and appropriate investment
•Alternative fuelled vehicles important; in the meantime rail and other public transport offer the best hope of a rapid switch to low carbon fuel (but depends on how electricity is produced)
•Second best methods such as public transport promotion relatively ineffective, unless they use low carbon electricity
•Raising price impacts not just on mode split but number and length of motorised journeys
•Decoupling of transport demand and GDP growth IS possible!