Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science SCHOOL OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT Climate/Atmospheric Science & HPC: Unravelling the Past, Understanding the.

Institute for Climate and Atmospheric ScienceSCHOOL OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT

Climate/Atmospheric Science & HPC: Unravelling the Past, Understanding the

Present and Predicting the Future

Alan M. Haywood

Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS)

ICAS one of four research institutes in the School of Earth & Environment

120 Staff and Researchers5 Research Groups: Atmospheric Dynamics Cloud Microphysics Atmospheric Chemistry Atmospheric Aerosol Climate Change and Impacts

Research with High Performance Computing

Research philosophy involves bringing together:

Theory Observations Numerical modelling

ARC1 is a key research tool.

Daily Weather Analysis, Research and Forecasting

Steven Pickering and Andrew Ross

• Performing daily weather forecasts across the UK and Europe• Used in meteorology teaching modules• Developing case studies of high impact events (hurricanes)• Providing forecasts for land based research projects• Monitoring and analysis of extreme weather events• Comparing simulated and observational weather data

Hypothesis for cause of collapse :Most rapidly warming region on the planet - 3.4°C/century Changes to circumpolar flow in recent decades have altered the wind patterns of the Antarctic PeninsulaMore frequent episodes of flow ‘over’ instead of flow ‘around’ the PeninsulaWarm/dry westerly down slope winds generated by mountains Warm/dry air across ice shelf!Modified wind regimes have altered climate of Peninsula

Collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf during summer 2002

-Very limited observations available to verify hypothesis -Larsen C ice shelf now at risk- Intense field campaign undertaken in Jan / Feb 2011 to gain more understanding of the mechanisms driving climate change and warming of Antarctic Peninsula

Strengthening circumpolar westerly flow

Weather forecasting for the Orographic Flow and the Climate of the Antarctic Peninsula (OFCAP) field projectVictoria Smith, Steven Pickering, Stephen Mobbs, Alan Gadian

Role of ARC1: Weather forecasts for planning research flights

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run daily on ARC1

Highly sophisticated computer model High resolution (1.5 km) required 60 hour forecast every day

HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING NEEDED IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THE

NECESSARY DAILY FORECASTS

First use of ARC1’s advanced reservation facility

144 cpu’s set aside each night between 8pm and 8am

Forecast products copied to Rothera, Antarctica and weather forecast given at 8:30 am (11:30 UK time)

Outer domain of model7.5 km horizontal resolution

Inner domain of model1.5 km horizontal resolution

Larsen C Ice Shelf

Rothera research base

Automatic weather stations

Example forecast products from OFCAP

Westerly synoptic flow driving cyclogenesis in lee of peninsula

and easterly cross Peninsula flow further south

Foehn clearly forecast in temperature plot along 68S

west of Peninsula

Cross-peninsula easterly driving strong jets from Fjords on western side of Peninsula

Extremely successful use of the ARC1 computer cluster and it’s new advanced reservation facility

ARC1 facility shown to be reliable enough and able to dedicate the resources needed to support field campaign

Global Aerosol ModellingKen Carslaw, Graham Mann, Domninick Spracklen, Kirsty Pringle + 5

postdocs + 5 PhD students

Small particles in the atmosphere (aerosol) play an important, but uncertain, role on weather, climate and human health.

Some aerosol are formed naturally (e.g. dust and sea salt) and others as a result of pollution

At Leeds we developed a global aerosol model (GLOMAP) to better understand how these particles are formed, and how they behave in the atmosphere.

GLOMAP has been implemented in both the Met Office Unified Model (as part of the UKCA project) and the European Centre for Long Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model.

Use of ARC1

GLOMAP is a very diverse group with interests in: volcanoes, cosmic rays, geoengineering, atmosphere-biosphere interactions, cloud formation, dust storms

and many more...

The overall group philosophy is to:

• Test complex and simplified parameterisations to decide what level of complexity is required.

• Run simulations at the same time as field campaigns to evaluate our model against observations.

• Try to identify and parameterize additional processes required to correctly simulate atmospheric aerosol

High performance computing allows us to include more processes, and in more detail

We receive funding from: the National Environmental Research Council, the European Union and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science

The GLOMAP aerosol model simulates the mass and number of different types of particle, including mineral dust.

Satellite image of dust blown from the Sahara over the ocean

GLOMAP model simulation of dust aerosol particles

Ground based observations

Process understanding and model evaluation

By comparing to a range of different observations we can

better understand the processes which are well /

badly treated in the model.

This leads to a better understanding of the processes involved

GLOMAP will provide additional model support to the FENNEC field campaign taking place this June

in the Sahara

Emissions and processing: the impact of volcanoes on climate

In 1783 the Laki volcanoerupted in Iceland - one of the largest flood lava

eruptions in recent history.

Previous studies have used a very simple treatment of the aerosol microphysics to model volcanic aerosol.

In Leeds, PhD student Anja Schmidt used GLOMAP run on the ARC1 computer to model the effect of the Laki eruption on aerosol and climate

SO2

Sulfate aerosol

particles

Volcanoes produce aerosol particles which reflect solar radiation and cool the climate.

Transported throughout the

atmosphere

Inventory and Stability of Marine Methane HydratesAlan Haywood and Stephen Hunter

Water cages that efficiently trap methane (150x density than STP)

Concentrated methane store + widespread – energy industry interest

Anthropogenic warming – submarine inventory may begin to disassociate

Methane strong GH gas + poses potential geohazard (submarine land slides) + ocean acidification

4x1018 g CH4

3000 GT Carbon

Previous estimates of the global inventory

Cascadia Margin

Model Evaluation

Blake Ridge

Modelling the Steady State Inventory

Hydrate mass = ~ 4700 to 5030 Pg C for present-day

Dynamism

Predicted bottom water temperature anomalies and ice sheet extent (↑) 6 ka ( )↗ LGM and (→) 120 ka

How does the global hydrate inventory respond to the changing bottom water conditions and sea-level change?

Blake Ridge example – test case

Grand Challenge Science – Simulating Glacial Cycles

Petit et al. (1999) Nature.

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Ice core data: thanks to Valerie Masson-Delmotte

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ARC1 is doing what it said

on the tin – capacity

But…it has also become

something extraordinary…

It is my capability service…

Ending on a personal note