Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM A. BERGER European Environment Agency, workshop on Energy, geenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios, Copenhagen 29-30 June 2004
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Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve
Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve. UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. A. BERGER. European Environment Agency, workshop on Energy, geenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios, Copenhagen 29-30 June 2004. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître
Chemin du Cyclotron, 2
1348 Louvain-la-Neuve
UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
A. BERGER
European Environment Agency, workshop on Energy, geenhouse gas emissions and climate change
scenarios, Copenhagen 29-30 June 2004
IPCC SRES 2001 SCENARI
13
20
29
621
856
723235
Pedersen ,globel Change Newsletter,44,2000
Mt
S
IPCC, 2001
8.2
5.8
Includes direct and indirect aerosols effects
Année
Cha
ngem
ent d
e te
mpé
ratu
re (
°C)
Echelles pour 2100 produites par différents modèles
Enveloppe de différents modèles SRES
Enveloppe de l’ensemble des modèles, tous SRES
On prévoit une augmentation de la température moyenne à la surface du globe pour le 21ème siècle
Global warming 2°C above pre-industrial times (1.4°C above 1990)
As B2 has less sulfate than A2 (mainly before 2050) it warms first .
If we take the average results of the 7 AOGCMs used for SRES 2001,the earliest GW of 1.4°C is reached in 2040 with A1T and the latest in 2065 with IS92a. Being given all models and scenari,1.4°C GW can be reached as soon as 2030 or as late as 2100 (IPCC,2001,p.541).