Inspirational Times - .GLOBAL€¦ · on pre-2014 science. Since 2015, there has been very substantial progress in different areas: The current and projected costs for renewable and

of scale, advances in technologies and engineering, and further rapid drops in prices.

Climate action presents an unprecedented economic opportunity, aids the achievement of sustainable development goals; it presents a new paradigm. The quicker the world acts to reduce emissions, the higher those benefits will be. Thanks to rapid developments in key sectors in recent years, we have technology on our side. These developments can and must serve as a powerful springboard for more ambitious NDCs in 2020.

In turn, increasing the ambition of NDCs can spur further ambition on the ground: in the process of revising NDCs, governments and other stakeholders will identify further mitigation options and consider their net benefits, and think about implementation of NDC targets on sectoral level. These processes will also support short-term action, and this way contribute to moving towards the Climate Turning Points.

World Economic Forum, Davos Klosters22-25 January, 2019

WWW.MISSION2020.GLOBAL

Inspirational TimesTRACKING PROGRESS TOWARD THE 2020 CLIMATE TURNING POINT

New analysis from the World Resources Institute (WRI) shows that global progress towards the six Mission 2020 milestones is uneven.

For several milestones and their underlying outcomes, action has been progressing and accelerating. However, in most cases action is insufficient or progress is off track to reach the 2020 climate turning point.

Tremendous opportunities to scale up and accelerate action remain untapped across all sectors, but the pace of realizing these opportunities must shift dramatically: peaking global emissions by 2020 gives us the least-cost likely chance of limiting warming to 1.5˚C by the end of the century.

Reaching most of the milestones is still technically feasible, but will depend

JASMIN CANTZLER, HANNA FEKETE, MICHIEL SCHAEFFER, NIKLAS HÖHNE, CARL-FRIEDRICH SCHLEUSSNER, & GAURAV GANTI

With new heat records around the globe, devastating wildfires and water shortages, 2018 reminded the world that climate change already affects the living conditions of billions. It was also the year the IPCC released a special report on 1.5°C highlighting that we can still limit dangerous climate change if we act now.

The Katowice climate summit in 2018 marked a turning point for climate action, demonstrating that despite anti-climate action noise in several geographies, overall the world community is still in. With a robust rulebook in place it is now up to governments to deliver increased ambition, through more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and their implementation. As UN Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa said: “From now on, my five priorities will be: ambition, ambition, ambition, ambition and ambition.“

While the NDCs are a central element of the Paris Agreement, the so-called “ratchet up” mechanism is what will ultimately deliver the goods. Governments are required to

OPINION: The transition is underway, are we prepared to allow it?progressively increase their level of ambition, and the credibility of the Agreement will stand or fall depending on whether this happens – along, of course, with governments’ commitment to turn ambition into action. The Climate Action Tracker estimates that current emissions trajectories based on implemented national policies will likely lead to global warming of about 3.3°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Were governments to implement what they have promised internationally - their NDCs - the world would see warming of 3°C.

Although the huge gap in ambition has been known since 2014, so far only a handful of countries increased the ambition of their NDC; within the G20 only Argentina. The latest science assessed in the IPCC report indicates that to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, governments need to come up with more ambitious NDCs by 2020 at the latest. The revision needs to include already existing targets for 2030; it is not enough to add new targets after 2030.

Economics also provide unequivocal reasons why governments now need to incorporate the real-economy developments into their policy planning. The current NDCs were prepared before the Paris Agreement and are based

on much more concerted policy and investment action, alongside shifts in behavior and mindsets. This will require extraordinary leadership at all levels of society including governments, business, and citizens that drive decisions needed to pull together financing, develop technologies, and undertake smart policies.

By pursuing actions that deliver resilient and secure livelihoods, ensure our air and water is clean, protect human health, create more livable cities, increase job opportunities, and protect species and ecosystems and the services they provide, leaders can deliver accelerated emissions reductions in the near and long term, and usher in a global decoupling of emissions from economic growth. It’s necessary, desirable and achievable.

Arctic Basecamp at Davos, 2018

TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITIES

Remain Untapped Across All Sectors

on pre-2014 science. Since 2015, there has been very substantial progress in different areas: The current and projected costs for renewable and electricity storage technologies have dramatically decreased, which is found to increase the potential of cost-effective photovoltaics deployment by up to 400% and more by 2030.

Renewable energy is now the cheapest source of electricity in many countries and will be in all G20 countries by 2030. Furthermore, concerns over the ability of renewables to provide a stable replacement for conventional power plants are rapidly receding, driven by technological progress and the increasing adoption of battery-storage systems at grid scale. Electric mobility is picking up at unexpected speed in many countries.

There are also encouraging developments in sectors considered more difficult to decarbonise, such as industry or heavy transport, where companies increasingly consider energy and material efficiency in their operations. Remarkable progress can be observed in fossil fuel free trucks and boats. Carbon-free primary steel making is in the demonstration phase.

Upgrading the NDCs is not only a climate necessity, it’s an economic imperative. These recent developments also show the

power of small but ambitious groups of actors getting together, bringing the costs of a technology down and subsequently changing the global market.

With the economic barriers overcome, governments need to turn to making the transition possible including the sections of society that fear to lose from the transition. For example, many countries have embarked on ensuring a just transition away from coal, taking the needs of the coal-dependent regions into account.

The Climate Turning Point Report from WRI synthesises the state of these developments, which now need to be strengthened and translated into enhanced ambition in national and sectoral planning, and also reflected in the next round of NDCs. The report shows that the speed of the transition required is very ambitious and is yet to pick up in many areas but there are examples where a strong coalition of governments, businesses and citizens have facilitated energy transitions in a matter of years.

Although overall progress is yet insufficient according to the report, significant momentum exists in part of the world economy, which will positively affect developments even in economies that see less concerted climate action domestically through economies

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Exponential potential in the ENERGY milestone - p.2

TRANSPORT & the need for speed - p.3

Radically accelerate action toward LAND USE milestone - p.4

PLUS: FINANCE, HEAVY INDUSTRY & INFRASTRUCTURE + options for NDC enhancement

Action 100+, commitments like those made by companies to go 100% renewable through RE100 and increased interest in climate-related financial disclosures are all expected to help accelerate these trends. Seventeen countries were already producing more than 90 percent of their electricity from renewable sources (including hydropower) in 2017, providing a strong example of what is possible for other countries to follow.

Coal: economically and socially unfavorableThe growth of new installed capacity of coal-fired power plants has been slowing down globally – 65 GW of coal power capacity were added in 2017 compared to 107 GW in 2015. At the same time, the rate of coal retirement has increased, from around 2 GW in 2006 to more than 28 GW in 2017. Coal plant retirements have accelerated in parts of the developed world, while progress is more uneven in the developing world, however in net terms, coal capacity is still being added.

Many governments have recognized that the economics of coal power -- combined with falling costs for renewable technology, national goals for climate action, preservation of air quality and quantification of public health costs -- make new coal power economically and socially unfavorable compared to renewable energy.

Eighty national and subnational governments and businesses have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, committing to phasing out coal power and supporting clean power generation. Additionally, at least 19 major banks have declined further financial support for new coal plants. All told, nearly 1000 institutional investors with more than $6 trillion in assets have committed to divest from fossil fuels, up from just $52 billion four years ago. __________________________

For full text including all data sources, please see WRI report via: www.wri.org/2020-turning-point-progress

Remarkable shifts underway The past decade has seen a remarkable shift toward renewable electricity generation away from fossil fuels, especially coal plants. This shift has been driven by rapidly declining costs (like the price of solar PV, which has seen an 81% price decline for modules since 2009) and increased utilization rates of renewable generation technologies, making coal-fired power an uneconomic choice in many regions. In 2017 renewables accounted for the majority of new power-generating capacity added, a significant turnaround from just a decade ago. Deployment of renewables is growing fastest in developing nations with new-build additions rising 20.4% year-on-year in these countries.

Pursuing benefits of actionMoving away from fossil fuels improves health outcomes, reduces healthcare costs, reduces climate impacts, contributes toward emission reduction goals, and provides more jobs than fossil fuels, among many other benefits. IRENA estimates that benefits from a long-term energy transition would yield cost savings of $6 trillion annually by 2050 just from reduced air pollution, better health, and reduced environmental damage.

Exponential potentialGlobal renewable electricity generation reached 25 percent in 2017 and renewable energy accounted for more than two thirds of net capacity growth added to meet new electricity demand. Combined with recent analysis that finds renewable sources will be cost competitive with most fossil fuel power generation by 2020, the 30 percent share advised by the 2020 milestone is tentatively within reach if current trends accelerate. Given that past projections have typically underestimated the rapid growth of renewable energy, it is possible that projections made today could similarly underestimate future progress.

Making the switchPrivate sector movement to divest from the fossil fuels, direct engagement efforts such as Climate

Options for 2020 NDC Enhancement: Energy

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INSPIRATIONAL TIMES: DAVOS EDITION #2020DONTBELATE

The energy sector has been included in virtually all NDCs, whether economy-wide targets, sectoral targets and/or policies and actions. Over 130 Par-ties mention renewable energy actions and plans in their NDCs and 89 include a quantitative target related to renewable energy. With enhanced or up-dated NDCs coming by 2020, countries that do not currently have specific targets around renewable energy should consider adding such targets. Those

with targets already outlined should increase their ambition and outline specific actions or policies to achieve these, including around closing coal plants and canceling planned capacity, expanding energy storage and distributed renewable energy, supporting renewable energy generation and crea-ting favorable conditions for continued sustainable energy transitions, through commitments to re-duce fossil fuel subsidies, for example.

2020 Energy Milestone:Renewables outcompete fossil fuels as new electricity sources worldwide

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Transport sector is on the cusp of a revolution but needs to put the pedal to the metalTransportation accounts for over 15% of global emissions, with international bunker fuels responsible for an additional 3%. In addition to being a crucial step towards meeting the goal of the Paris Agreement, transitioning to zero emissions transport brings significant benefits, including lowering levels of particulate matter, which leads to improved air quality, and the prevention of premature deaths. Global annual sales of electric vehicles (EV) grew exponentially - by 54% - in a single year, reaching a record of 1.1 million in 2017, with 4 million EVs on the road in 2018. However, the share of EVs in global sales of new vehicles was just 1.4%, and EVs are projected to only take up 3% of new car sales in 2020, falling very short of the outcome.

Announcements portend scale of coming changeAnnouncements and targets have been made by 66 countries, 71 cities or regions and 48 companies towards phasing out internal combustion engines and shift to additional zero emissions vehicles. 23 automobile manufactures have also been introducing electric car models and EV sale targets. Many new EV commitments have been made in the last year, such as the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Challenge by over 60 partners including subnational states and regions, businesses and cities. Additionally, strong policy signals, such as in China and Norway, have shown that it is possible to boost EV sales significantly. as in China and Norway, have shown that it is possible to boost EV sales significantly.

Untapped potential in HDVsReduction in the average fuel consumption of new heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), through various areas of efficiency improvement, can save millions of barrels of oil per day, in addition to saving emissions. Yet, only 50% of HDV sales are covered by fuel economy and emissions standards, and only five countries have HDV fuel economy regulations in place. While more major economies now have such regulations under consideration, we are not on track to achieve efficiency standards for HDV that are 20% higher across all major economies.

Room for others to join the vanguardRegarding zero-emissions transport routes, pioneering leaders from 26 cities with a combined population of over 125 million have joined the C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration, which could potentially drive demand for electric HDVs. Modal shift to rail freight also provides alternative to fulfill demand for heavy duty vehicles. Action needs to be rapidly accelerated if the outcome is to be reached. Realizing such an outcome lessens air pollution and brings significant health benefits.

More room for shared transport In 2015, the share of public transport of trips taken globally was 19%, falling short of the 32% outcome (the goal to double 2005 market share). The share also differs significantly by region, ranging from 7% in North America, 22% in Latin American and over 27% in Africa. Action to reach this outcome needs to be accelerated if it is to be met five years earlier, in 2020.

Options for 2020 NDC Enhancement: Transport107 NDCs include transportation actions targeting fleet efficiency, fuel use, transit-oriented planning and more. 32 NDCs include public transportation actions, 6 NDCs mention actions on aviation, and 4 NDCs include maritime emissions. 36 NDCs in-cluded quantified mitigation targets for transport, among which 13 specifies emissions reduction tar-

gets. There are 7 of which targets public transport and 5 for electric vehicles. Countries should specify further transport actions, including regarding avia-tion and maritime shipping at the national level; and increase the stringency of existing targets.

2020 Transport Milestone:Zero emissions transport is the preferred form of all new mobility

in the world’s major cities and transport routes

Providing convenient access to public transportation improves road safety, assists vulnerable populations, and saves millions of barrels of oil. It also improves access to employment opportunities and expands the supply of urban land, thereby driving down housing costs.

Opportunity in the airThe International Air Transport Association (IATA) members and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) recently announced new initiatives to reduce emissions and improve efficiency, which can be built upon.

Shipping in the fast laneThe International Maritime Organization (IMO) recently announced its initial strategy for reducing carbon emissions at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2007 levels, and pursue efforts to phase out emissions in this century and to be on a trajectory

consistent with Paris Agreement temperature goals. Additionally, Maersk, the world’s biggest shipping company, announced a goal to be carbon neutral by 2050.

These plans would benefit from being further formalized, through transparent data collection efforts such as IMO’s data collection system, complemented by concrete actions to realize goals even earlier. In addition, countries can adopt initiatives and actions that compliment and facilitate IMO action. __________________________


Land should be a carbon sink not a carbon source and has the potential to be a huge part of the climate solution, yet in this milestone we are going in the wrong direction – radical action is needed.Reducing deforestation and degradation, accelerating restoration and boosting crop and pasture yields to increase food production, without further agricultural land expansion, are critical for reducing emissions and maintaining ecosystem services. However, at present, land use - both agriculture and forests - is a major contributor to global GHG emissions. Net natural forest loss has declined in recent years while gross tree cover loss has increased. Net numbers count naturally reforested areas as offsetting forest loss in another location in recent years, whereas gross tree cover loss counts regrowth and loss separately. Looking just at net numbers can be misleading since forest loss in one place cannot be counted as equivalent to regrowth in another. A more careful examination of the drivers and locations of gross forest loss shows we are not moving in the right direction regarding deforestation as a whole, even though net natural forest loss is declining. Reflecting the difference between net and gross numbers, net emissions from deforestation have declined to just over 3 GtCO2e in 2016 while gross emissions have increased. Forests provide critical ecosystem services, including protection from extreme disasters such as floods and droughts, provision of food and fiber, and protection of biodiversity. If further

deforestation is avoided, the global economy would be boosted by at least 40-80 billion USD per year. Nearly 500 companies have committed to reduce or eliminate supply-chain driven deforestation by different target dates. Among companies with exposure to commodities in their supply chains, those with commitments account for at least twice the revenue of those without. Less than halfway there?Under the Bonn Challenge – a global effort to bring 150 million hectares (Mha) into restoration by 2020 – 56 national and subnational actors have thus far committed to restoring 94 Mha. While progress has only been assessed in six jurisdictions so far, analysis shows that less than half of the committed hectares have been restored. As comprehensive data to track progress across all jurisdictions have yet to be collected and published, these values are underestimating progress to date, but the subset of data currently available show we may not be on track to reach the 2020 milestone. Restoration can provide new income streams, which could boost smallholders’ incomes in developing countries by US$35-50 billion per year within the next 15 years. Meeting the adopted 150 Mha restoration outcome alone is estimated to bring $85 billion per year in net benefits. Bending the curve in agricultureDirect emissions from agriculture, of which nearly all are non-CO2 emissions, have increased from 4.6 Gt CO2e in 2000 to 5.3 Gt CO2e in

Options for 2020 NDC Enhancement: Land Use

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Over 150 NDCs consider land use-related mitiga-tion options, such as reforestation or afforestation, under their GHG reduction targets, with 124 refe-rencing ongoing or planned efforts in the forest sec-tor; however, only 58 of those include quantitative forest sector targets. As countries enhance or update NDCs by 2020, they should strengthen their commitments around forests and land use by laying out specific quanti-tative targets or by strengthening existing quanti-tative targets through enhancing ambition and/or specifying policies or actions to create the condi-tions for achieving those targets, including for exa-

mple, mobilizing finance to protect forested areas or improving monitoring programs to track impact. For agriculture, governments can commit to re-forming inefficient and environmentally harmful agricultural subsidies, and to aligning fiscal and policy incentives to encourage earth-friendly agri-culture, among other solutions. Investments in smallholders could spare millions of hectares from deforestation.


2020 Land Use Milestone:Large-scale deforestation is replaced with large-scale land restoration,

and agriculture shifts to earth-friendly practices

2016. Indirect emissions from agriculture, which include CO2 emissions, are counted in other sectors and not tracked in this report. While some efforts to enhance carbon removals on farms through soil management or cover cropping, are starting to take shape, global data tracking uptake are not available. To halt growth in direct agricultural emissions by 2020, progress must be greatly accelerated to bend the trajectory of agricultural emissions downward.

On the supply side, focusing on increasing agricultural productivity without expanding land can yield direct benefits while lessening the

impact on forests and initiatives like 4 per 1000 are working to improve soil quality. On the demand side, initiatives like Champions 12.3 and shifting diets, are aimed at reducing growth in demand for agricultural products and provide a foundation for scaling up action in this sector. Additionally, over forty companies involved in the food supply chain have committed to science-based targets to reduce their emissions.__________________________

For full text including all data sources, please see WRI report via: www.wrixxxxxxx

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Heavy lift by industry technically and economically feasible Heavy industries, such as iron and steel, cement, chemicals, and oil and gas, are energy intensive and collectively responsible for around a quarter of global CO2 emissions. Emissions from industrial processing itself has increased almost two-fold compared to 1990 levels, although the rate of growth has slowed in recent years. If no further actions are taken, emissions from the industrial sector are expected to continue to increase to over 17% higher than 2016 levels in 2050. Mitigation opportunities, however, exist on many fronts. Recent analysis has found that it is technically and economically feasible for chemicals, steel and cement to reach net zero emissions by mid-century at a cost of less than 0.5% of global gross domestic product.

International support widely availableVarious international efforts are underway to support companies, including heavy industry firms, in setting short- and long-term goals and related planning. For example, nearly 300 heavy industry companies within the industrial, materials and energy sectors have registered 677 cooperative and individual actions in UNFCCC’s Global Climate Action portal, committing to various initiatives such as Science Based Targets (SBTs), Low Carbon Technology Partnerships Initiative (LCTPi), RE100 for 100% renewable power, among others. Roadmaps with clear timelines and milestones coupled with transparent systems to track progress, can support implementation and realization of the commitments.

Increased energy and material efficiency of heavy industry processes also bring benefits such as energy savings, reduced production costs, and more jobs. Technology innovations can further bring new economic opportunities and environmental benefits.

Invest to progress Positive developments have been made in heavy industries. For example, the global carbon intensity of cement production leveled off between 2014-2016. By deploying energy and material efficiency measures and best available technologies, emissions could be kept at a level

Options for 2020 NDC Enhancement:Heavy IndustryAround 40 NDCs include actions and plans in rela-tion to heavy industries such as cement, chemicals, iron and steel. Only 15 NDCs include quantitative targets related to heavy industry, such as reduc-tions in the sector’s emissions and increase share of additives in cement production. While compa-nies have a major role to play in decarbonizing

heavy industries, momentum can be created and complemented by specifying actions and policies in NDCs. Countries should drive accelerated ac-tions by non-state actors in heavy industry sectors advancing policies such as carbon pricing material and efficiency mandates.


2020 Industry Milestone:Heavy industry, including iron & steel, chemicals and oil & gas – commits to being Paris compliant

Steel pipes on construction site.Photo: Mirabelka Szuszu

OPINION: Why Peak Emissions by 2020? Bold Climate Action is the Inclusive Growth Story for Today's EconomiesHELEN MOUNTFORD - VICE PRESIDENT, CLIMATE & ECONOMICS, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE

For countries, business and investors alike, pea-king greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 is an op-portunity to seize the benefits of clean, inclusive and sustainable economies. The New Climate Economy found in its 2018 report that taking am-bitious climate action now could unlock $26 trillion in economic benefits through to 2030. In addition, the rewards of action would include 65 million new low-carbon jobs in 2030 and 700,000 lives saved from avoiding premature deaths due to air pollu-tion.

To turn that possibility into reality, leaders must act quickly and decisively. The world is likely to double our current stock of infrastructure by 2030, and the plans for much of this investment will be set over the coming 2-3 years. With this we have an incredible opportunity to get the transport, energy, water, industrial and cities of the future right; but also a real risk of locking in the wrong infrastruc-ture if we get them wrong. Achieving the 2020 tur-ning point for GHG emissions will rest on extraor-dinary leadership stepping-up over the next year at all levels of society.

CO2 emissions are still rising, but we have seen the leadership we need begin to emerge. Almost 20 countries, contributing 20 percent of global CO2e-missions, have grown their economies while redu-cing their emissions over the past decade. The real economy and the finance sector is showing increa-sing momentum. More and more banks, investors and shareholders are asking companies to disclose their climate-related risks and opportunities. The World Bank recently announced it will increase its climate-related investments to $200 billion in 2021-2025, to support countries’ climate action efforts. And some important new industry leaders have emerged as well, building on leadership by those like Unilever, Mahindra, and others. For example, Maersk, the world’s largest shipping container group, plans to cut its CO2 emissions to zero by 2050.

Significant near-term opportunities for govern-ments and companies to take concrete action abound, including by pulling together climate fi-nance, developing clean technologies and imple-menting smart policies. WRI’s new report, Tracking Progress of the 2020 Climate Turning Point, details some of the progress that is being made and the way forward. Some of the critical actions for all countries are to: rapidly phase out coal, move more

below current levels through 2060. For a trajectory to halve emissions by 2050 and to reach a Paris compliant scenario, or limit warming even lower, switching to low carbon fuels and innovative low carbon technologies such as low-carbon hydrogen generation, solar thermal for alumina refining, and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will be needed in the longer term. Those innovative technologies are at various stages between commercially available to under research and development. Advancing those technologies and make them available in the long-term require significant investment in research, development, demonstration and deployment and policy push to remove institutional barriers in the short-term.

In addition, 26 heavy industry companies have committed to establishing science-based targets, and 5 of these have approved targets. No sufficient

swiftly toward renewable energy, electrify the transportation sector, make buildings and heavy industries much more efficient, adopt sustainable land practices, and scale up finance for all of the above.

Two things countries can do immediately to set the right path forward are to strengthen their Natio-nally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agree-ment (as the Marshall Islands have already done), and to integrate climate action into long-term eco-nomic and development plans (as Indonesia and the EU are doing). By setting goals to zero out car-bon pollution by mid-century and then planning accordingly, governments can direct the infrastruc-

ture investments into projects that support people’s health and prosperity into the future, rather than carbon-intensive projects that could lock us into worsening climate change and economic disrup-tion for decades. This also sends a consistent, clear and loud policy signal to business and investors.

To get to a 2020 turning point, 2019 must be a year of “all hands on deck” action not just from natio-nal governments, but also from companies, cities, financial institutions, and individuals. If we are successful, we’ll reap the incredible benefits of a stable climate and inclusive, sustainable economic development for years to come.

public accessible data exist to assess the magnitude of those targets, such as the share of emissions in industry sector by those companies, or how they add up and compare to a trajectory of halving emissions by 2050.


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Building a better, safer worldInfrastructure construction and operation including electricity generation and distribution, industry, buildings, and transport systems account for 70% of global GHG emissions. Investing in low carbon infrastructure can help mitigate GHG emissions, reduce air pollution, and improve traffic congestion. Expansion of infrastructure related to adaptation, such as sea walls and flood protection, will also help increase climate resilience and reduce vulnerability.

Cities and states have been increasingly making commitments towards decarbonizing infrastructure and buildings. Over 9,000 cities registered actions in UNFCCC’s Global Climate Action portal. More than 70 mayors have committed to developing and implementing climate action plans by 2020 and become emissions neutral by no later than 2050. While these commitments extend beyond just buildings and infrastructure, many of them include related actions. Additionally, 815 cities signed the One Planet Charter to reinforce their commitments and take continued actions to reach zero emissions buildings and zero waste objectives. National governments will also play an important role in policy development, finance, capacity building and other measures to build an enabling environment for further action.

Are record highs in climate finance enough?Investment in low carbon infrastructure is likely not commensurate with what is needed to meet the 2020 outcome. In 2017, the MDBs reached a record high of $32.5 billion in climate finance, a 20% increase from previous year. Those same projects also attracted co-financing of over $50 billion, within which approximately $11.5 billion was dedicated to infrastructure financing. There is not enough data to know how much investment occurred beyond the MDBs, and therefore it is not possible to assess progress. However, if the MDBs

are a significant percentage of finance to support infrastructure decarbonization, progress may very likely be insufficient. Developed countries are encouraged to fulfill their international pledges, and the private sector will need to increase investment while public financing continues to de-risk those projects.

Massive opportunity to lock in a liveable futureInvesting in sustainable infrastructure is not necessarily costly and can be met without compromising economic development. Failure to invest in low carbon technologies for infrastructure can cause lock-in to a higher emissions pathway as these assets have a long lifespan.

The number of zero energy buildings has been growing exponentially: over 700% more since 2012. However, those high-performance buildings such as near-zero energy buildings account for less than 5% of construction in most markets today, and still well less than 1% of the global building stock. However, there is recent movement. For example, the World Green Building Council’s Net Zero Carbon Building Commitment (WorldGBC 2018b) has 44 signatories from cities, regions and business, committing to all new buildings reaching net zero operating emissions by 2030 and all buildings to operate at net zero carbon by 2050.

Are we upgrading existing infrastructure accordingly?Existing buildings were retrofitted at an annual rate of around 1%-2% as of a few years ago. If this rate has remained unchanged, then retrofits will need to accelerate to 3% annually and increase the stringency of upgrades to meet net zero emissions standards to reach 100% of zero energy buildings in 2050. Less than a third of countries have introduced mandatory building energy codes or building energy certifications in 2017 and only

Options for 2020 NDC Enhancement:Buildings and Infrastructure

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Over 130 NDCs mention the building sector, among which 45 put forward building-related plans and actions, and 38 include plans and poli-cies that address building efficiency. Only 13 NDCs list specific quantitative mitigation targets such as emissions reductions and demand-side efficiency in buildings. Countries should include or comple-

ment existing policies in their future NDCs. Fur-thermore, mentioning more specific actions, targets and technologies in NDCs -- such as new building codes, building envelope improvement, enhanced heating and cooling efficiency -- that are crucial for decarbonizing buildings would create a clearer path for achieving those ambitions.


2020 Infrastructure Milestone:Cities and states are implementing policies and regulations to fully decarbonize building

and infrastructure by 2050

Street view, Tokyo.Photo by Minoru Hanada

18 countries have building codes targeted at the existing building stock. No publicly available data source has been found to provide a more recent and accurate estimate of the current retrofit rate of worlds’ existing building stock.


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Finance for a climate safe futureAccess to sufficient financing is a prerequisite for scaling mitigation and adaptation action. Public financing for climate has been growing over time and will need to sustain and even accelerate that growth going forward. Private investment also needs to be scaled up and better aligned with climate objectives.

There has been growing interest from the private sector in greater transparency around climate risks of investments as these risks become more apparent and the opportunity for new and innovative instruments expands.

In 2016, global investment to tackle climate change – covering only a portion of the global flows due to data gaps – is estimated to have totaled between $455 billion and $681 billion, with the high estimate including investment in energy efficiency. While it is possible the $1 trillion outcome will be reached by 2020, especially the public finance component, lack of complete data will make it difficult to tell.

A number of recent initiatives and commitments by both private and public sector entities point to a growing pool of green finance. This growth will need to accelerate to sufficiently finance our transition to a Paris compliant economy.

Going big on philanthropyTwenty-nine philanthropies came together at the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) in September 2018 to announce a $4 billion commitment towards climate action over the next five years – the largest ever commitment to climate philanthropy. While this commitment falls short of a ten-fold increase from 2016 levels, which would be at least $2.6 billion each year, it still represents a significant acceleration in giving compared to recent years. It also does not represent all philanthropic giving towards climate.

In line with the growing commitment to climate evidenced by the $4 billion pledge, a survey of 10 major foundations in the United States and Europe, representing more than $240 million in climate funding per year, found that the majority of foundations have increased their focus on climate and will continue to do so. Nearly 200 major foundations have also committed to divest from coal or all fossil fuels (Fossil Free 2018).

Big green bondsGrowth in green bond issuance has been strong over the past five years, increasing from less than $12 billion in 2013 to $162 billion in 2018. While 2018 saw a leveling off in this growth as compared to 2017, the overall trend reflects strong and growing interest. However, this pace of growth is not fast enough to reach the $810 billion outcome in by 2020 (a ten-fold increase over 2016 levels of $81 billion).

For issuers, green bonds provide a means to raise finance for climate friendly projects; for investors, they provide a clear indication of climate consideration as well as increased transparency into the projects and their impact.

In addition to labeled green bonds, there is a larger universe of more than $1 trillion in outstanding bonds from issuers that derive most (75-95%) of their revenue from climate-aligned projects, indicating strong potential for expansion of labeling, as well as growth in overall issuance.

Disclosure works but more transparency is neededOver 500 companies and other organizations with a combined market capitalization of nearly $8 trillion have pledged to support the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosures recommendations since they were published in 2017 and more than 1000 companies already disclose information on physical or financial risks aligned with TCFD recommendations via CDP.

Swampy in suits but needs more intelligenceInvestor demand for credit rating agencies to take environmental, social and governance risks into consideration is increasing and credit rating agencies are increasing their focus on environmental risks, but data is not available to track progress in this area.

Companies and investors need access to complete information to make informed investment decisions. Conversely, credit rating agencies need to fully incorporate climate risks into their ratings in order to provide full information for investors. This information is especially important as the effects of climate change become more tangible and have impacts both on physical infrastructure as well as on business and profitability through the transition to a greener economy. Direct engagement efforts such as Climate Action 100+, where nearly 300 investors representing $31 trillion in assets under management have committed to engage with the world’s largest GHG emitters to accelerate climate action, are expected to accelerate these trends.

Ending support for fuels that have no place in the future must scale upFossil fuel subsidies have declined from $443 billion in 2010 to $373 billion in 2015. However, partial data for just OECD countries in 2016 shows a leveling off of this progress. Member countries of the G7, G20, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation and the European Union have all continually committed to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and while the data show incremental progress at the global scale, movement at the country-level is varied. All told, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate estimates that more than 40 countries partially reduced subsidies for fossil fuels between 2015 and 2017.

Progress remains uneven and subsidies are not currently decreasing at a fast enough rate to be eliminated in the next few years. Furthermore, a prolonged economic upswing and lower oil prices

Options for 2020 NDC Enhancement: FinanceDiscussion of climate finance in the first NDCs is lar-gely with regard to countries specifying condi-tional elements of NDCs and describing finance needed to implement their NDCs. However, some countries also mentioned specific financial mecha-nisms. Fifteen countries mention the intention to reduce or remove fossil fuel subsidies, but these do not align with countries providing the bulk of

global fossil fuel subsidies. Additionally, over 80 mention market-based mechanisms and carbon pricing (DIE 2018). There is an opportunity in en-hanced or updated NDCs to accelerate and increase the ambition of these commitments and include new ones for example around halting production of fossil fuel reserves.


2020 Finance Milestone:Investment in climate action is beyond USD $1 trillion per year and all financial institutions

have a disclosed transition strategy

mean that reduced subsidies cannot always be attributed to policy, but rather are partly due to lower prices spurring less need for subsidization.

Subsidies for coal, oil and gas essentially act as a negative carbon price, reducing the costs for these polluting substances and taking up funding that could instead be used for other expenditures, including investment in sustainable development.

Are businesses preparing to be fit for purpose in a zero-carbon-emissions world?While evidence shows a decline in capital expenditures for new fossil fuel extraction projects, particularly new coal mines, no comprehensive data set exists that tracks the cancellation of capital expenditure for all fossil fuel projects globally. Accordingly, it is difficult to track progress towards this milestone. The appetite from commercial and development banks to finance these projects has declined, with many announcing restrictions or all out bans on coal-mine financing and/or other fossil fuel extraction projects. If investments are not shifted, investors stand to lose $1-4 trillion globally when fossil fuel assets become stranded.

The shift away from fossil fuels, especially coal, is underway and its effects are being felt as

renewable energy already outcompetes coal on price in many markets. Looking ahead, this shift toward renewable energy is expected to continue as technologies advance and costs continue to fall.

Putting a price on itAs of late-2018, 52 national and sub-national carbon taxes or emission trading schemes (ETS) have been implemented or are planned for implementation, including 25 ETS and 27 carbon taxes that cover 19.5% of global GHG emissions, according to the World Bank. This represents a nearly four-fold increase from ten years ago when 5% of emissions were covered. Fourteen of the G20 economies have a national or sub-national carbon tax or ETS planned or implemented. Many of these pricing initiatives, however, can increase their prices and expand the scope of their emissions coverage in order to increase their impact.

Well-designed carbon pricing schemes can be set up as revenue neutral and proceeds can be redistributed back to households in the form of rebates at higher levels than the cost they incurred, ultimately providing greater benefits to families.__________________________


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CHRISTINA FIGUERES - VICE-CHAIR OF THE GLOBAL COVENANT OF MAYORS, CONVENOR OF MISSION 2020, AND FOUNDING PARTNER OF GLOBAL OPTIMISM LTD.

In October 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a special report, which had been commissioned in 2015 by the world’s governments as they agreed in Paris to keep global temperature rise to “well below 2°C while striving for 1.5 degrees.”

The report is the most granular and authoritative analysis we have ever had on the impacts of global temperature rise – caused by increasing CO2 emissions – and the disastrous implications on the global economy of a rise that would go beyond 1.5 degrees.

The impacts have never been as clear, nor action so urgent, as we are quickly approaching tipping points of no return.

It would follow, then, that leaders everywhere should now be discussing this number one concern as their number one priority.

The decisions we take over the next 2-3 years are crucial for the unprecedented structural changes

we must embark on to safeguard our climate and clean up our air. This is the make it or break it opportunity we have, knowing that the world is expected to invest about US$90 trillion on infrastructure in the period up to 2030, with much of this investment to be programmed in the next few years.

To help guide this decision making, here’s one idea for a simple but powerful strategy hack that can be implemented across the board.

Now that we know the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming - including twice as much physical damage, twice as many people subjected to life threatening heatwaves and fires - we have one clear path to follow. We must focus every effort on striving for 1.5°C.

Let’s enact a “search and replace” across all strategic documents, including action plans, emission reduction targets, risk and opportunity assessments: search for “well below 2” and replace it with “1.5”. Then act accordingly. It is not only the right thing to do, it is the only prudent and prosperous course of action.

This text first appeared on Time.com on Thursday, Jan 17th 2019.

OPINIONSearch and Replace

GAIL WHITEMAN -- PROFESSOR & DIRECTOR, PENTLAND CENTRE FOR SUSTAINABILITY IN BUSINESS, LANCASTER UNIVERSITY

Many people prefer ice in their drinks rather than under their boots. But for Arctic scientists, there is nothing more inspiring than ice.

We love ice because it is a critical regulator of the world as we know it. Just like the Amazon can be described as the “lungs of the world”, the Arctic acts as a crucial part of the Earth’s circulatory system. Arctic ice regulates global climate, including the distribution of heat, and patterns of rainfall or snowfall, and affects extreme weather in the mid-latitudes.

Like anything old and grisly, Arctic ice used to be able to survive the summer heat. But the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the global average (known as Arctic amplification), and the old ice is melting.

Without sea ice in summer, we lose much of the Arctic’s protective ability to reflect sunlight away from Earth. This can dramatically accelerate global climate change and the risks of impacts that can affect food and water security elsewhere, as well as increase rising sea levels and extreme weather events. We know that in 2018 alone, extreme weather events cost US$320 billion. So when WEF global experts identify extreme weather as the a top global risk, they are talking about the dangers of Arctic change.

The trouble is, Arctic ice is disappearing fast. We’ve had a 75% loss in volume of Arctic summer sea ice in the last 40 years. It’s a crisis.

Why is it happening?Research shows a strong and direct correlation with CO2 emissions. The Arctic is the poster child for the urgency of the +1.5C target. At or below this level, we likely keep the Arctic summer ice, but above we likely lose the ice. And the rest of the world will pay the price. What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.

Global scientists are working to change that. That’s why we’ve set up a real Arctic Basecamp at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland (Jan 22-25, 2019), to share inspiring solutions and encourage world leaders commit to radical climate action.

There’s no better location to make the impossible possible. Join us and inspirational leaders like Christiana Figueres at Arctic Basecamp at the Schatzalp Hotel.

@ArcticBasecamp

OPINIONWhy There is Nothing More Inspiring Than Ice

Inspirational Times - .GLOBAL€¦ · on pre-2014 science. Since 2015, there has been very substantial progress in different areas: The current and projected costs for renewable and

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