Maldon District Council Maldon District Local Development Plan Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016) Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth Q1 & 2 Housing Market Area Statement made on behalf of the Local Planning Authority 1 DOC125
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Maldon District Council Maldon District Local Development Plan
Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and
Questions (November 2016)
Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Q1 & 2 Housing Market Area
Statement made on behalf of the Local Planning Authority
1
DOC125
Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)
STATEMENT
MATTERS 2, 3, 4 AND 5: STRATEGIC HOUSING GROWTH
Inspector’s Matter
Issue: Are the policies for strategic housing growth justified, effective and consistent with national policy?
Inspector’s Questions
The Housing Market Area
1. The Council identifies Maldon district as one Housing Market Area. At present I havesome reservations about the extent to which the evidence supports this position. Is it ajustified stance to take?
2. Has the Council explored the alternative proposition that Maldon forms part of one widerHousing Market Area? If not, why not?
Maldon District Council response
1.1 The statement below is in response to both Questions 1 and 2.
1.2 National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG), Housing and economic development
needs assessments, paragraph 8 states that housing needs should be assessed in
relation to the relevant functional area i.e. Housing Market Area.
1.3 NPPG paragraph 10 defines a Housing Market Area as, “a geographical area defined
by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key
functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case
that housing market areas overlap”.
1.4 NPPG paragraph 11 suggests that Housing Market Areas can be broadly defined by
using three different sources of information as follows:
• House prices and rates of change in house prices;
• Household migration and search patterns; and
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Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)
• Contextual data (for example travel to work area boundaries, retail and school
catchment areas).
1.5 In line with NPPG, this SHMA Update reviews relevant data to establish the extent to
which Maldon District can be described Housing Market Area.
House prices and rates of change in house prices
1.6 NPPG paragraph 11 states that,
‘Housing market areas can be identified by assessing patterns in the relationship
between housing demand and supply across different locations. This analysis uses
house prices to provide a ‘market-based’ reflection of housing market area
boundaries. It enables the identification of areas which have clearly different price
levels compared to surrounding areas. The findings provide information about
differences across the area in terms of the price people pay for similar housing,
market ‘hotspots’, low demand areas and volatility.’
1.7 The following map shows the Essex sub-areas in relation to housing market area
boundaries.
SPATIAL PATTERN OF GROWTH
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Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)
• The distribution of housing growth is focused along four key corridors:
� The A12 & Great Eastern Mainline Corridor
� The A120 Haven Gateway Corridor
� The M11 London Stansted Cambridge Corridor
� The A127 and A13 Corridors.
1.8 As noted in the response to the Inspector’s question 3(c), Maldon’s housing market is
very different from that in Chelmsford, Braintree and Colchester. As Figure 2 in that
response shows, 46% of sales in in Maldon in the 12 months to Q1 2016 were
detached properties compared with 24-26% in Chelmsford, Braintree and
Colchester. This reflects the fact that Maldon is predominantly a rural area with much
lower population density than either Chelmsford or Colchester. As a consequence,
its housing offer is radically different.
Migration and self-containment
1.9 In relation to migration, PPG paragraph 11 states:
‘Migration flows and housing search patterns reflect preferences and the trade-offs
made when choosing housing with different characteristics. Analysis of migration flow
patterns can help to identify these relationships and the extent to which people move
house within an area. The findings can identify the areas within which a relatively
high proportion of household moves (typically 70 per cent) are contained. This
excludes long distance moves (e.g. those due to a change of lifestyle or retirement),
reflecting the fact that most people move relatively short distances due to
connections to families, friends, jobs, and schools.’
1.10 That said, previous CLG guidance recognised that ‘rural areas typically have less
locally self-contained migration patterns, reflecting the influence of long-distance
movers who are opting for lifestyle change or retirement’1
1.11 Data reported in the 2011 Census provides evidence from which the degree of self-
containment of Maldon District can be derived. PAS guidance recommends that
migration data are tested against the PPG criterion for self-containment, that at least
70% of all migration excluding long-distance migration should be contained within the
HMA. A suitable test are two migration containment ratios:
Supply side (origin): moves within the area divided by all moves whose origin is in
the area, excluding long-distance moves
1 DCLG Advice Note: Identifying sub-regional housing market areas 2007
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Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)
Demand side (destination): moves within the area divided by all moves whose
destination is in the area, excluding long-distance migration
1.12 Table 1.1 presents relevant data for Maldon and Table 1.2 summaries the
containment ratios derived from the data. Table 1.1 illustrates that 49.2% of all
residents moving who originated in Maldon remained in the District and of all
residents moving to a property in Maldon 47.4% had originated in the district. Table
1.1 also summarises the origins of moving residents based on 2011 Census data and
indicates strong flows from neighbouring districts 22.7% (origin-based) and 24.2%
(destination-based), with strongest flows between Maldon and Chelmsford.
Table 3.2 summaries the containment ratios that apply to the origin and destination of
moving residents. In line with PPG guidance, this excludes long-distance migration
(which is taken as moves from outside Essex). The origin containment ratio is 60.1%
and the destination is 60.8%
Table 1.1 Flows of residents (all moves)
Origin/
Destination
Supply Side (Origin) Demand Side (Destination)
All Moves
Excluding
Long
Distance
Moves All Moves
Excluding
Long
Distance
Moves
Number % % Number % %
Maldon 2,297 49.2 60.1 2,297 47.4 60.8
Colchester 201 4.3 5.3 298 6.2 7.9
Braintree 286 6.1 7.5 355 7.3 9.4
Chelmsford 520 11.1 13.6 474 9.8 12.5
Rochford 52 1.1 1.4 43 0.9 1.1
Elsewhere Essex 465 10.0 12.2 312 6.4 8.3
Elsewhere East of
England 152 3.3 230 4.7
London 341 7.3 215 4.4
Elsewhere UK 359 7.7 620 12.8
TOTAL 4,673 100.0 100.0 4,844 100.0 100.0
Base (excluding
long-distance
moves)
3,821 3,779
Source: 2011 Census
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Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)
Table 1.2 Containment ratios
Origin Moves within the area Moves originating in the
area
Containment
Ratio
2,297 4,314 60.12%
Destination Moves within the area Moves whose destination
is in the area
Containment
Ratio
2,297 4,224 60.78%
Source: 2011 Census
1.13 In common with many rural districts, the level of containment in Maldon is lower than
the 70% CLG threshold but this reflects the complexity of migration interactions with
other areas. To illustrate this, Figure 1.1 considers the net age specific migration
observed in the 2011 census. It demonstrates there was an overall net out-migration
in the year preceding the census driven by net out-migration of the 16-49 age group,
particularly to elsewhere in the UK. There were net outflows to neighbouring
Colchester and Braintree; and net inflows from Chelmsford and Rochford.
Figure 1.1 Net migration flows by age group and origin/destination
Source 2011 census
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Aged 75+
Aged 65-74
Aged 50-64
Aged 16-49
Aged 1-15
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Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)
1.14 Given that Maldon exhibits a lower degree of self-containment and in the context of
defining the housing market area, it is worth considering how interactions with
Maldon are perceived by neighbouring authorities:
o Braintree, Chelmsford, Colchester and Tendring authority areas lie adjacent
to Maldon District, to the north and west. These four authorities are identified
as a single housing market area in their joint Objectively Assessed Housing
Need Study2 and joint Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update3. The
analysis within the OAHN Study suggests that an HMA comprising Braintree,
Chelmsford, Colchester and Tendring forms a sound basis for assessing
housing need. The SHMA Update accepts these conclusions and provides
further detail of the type and tenure of housing needed in the HMA. These two
documents together constitute the SHMA for the four authorities and they
form the evidence base that these authorities are using in their emerging
Local Plans.
o Rochford District lies to the south of Maldon. It strongly identifies itself as one
of the Thames Gateway South Essex (TGSE) authorities in its adopted Core
Strategy of December 2011. This association continues, with the recent
Strategic Housing Market Assessment: South Essex4 report demonstrating a
strong degree of self-containment (migration and commuting) when the five
constituent authorities of Basildon, Castle Point, Southend-on-Sea, Thurrock
and Rochford are analysed together. By comparison, it found that these
authorities have low levels of self-containment when looked at individually.
The report concludes that it is appropriate to consider the five authorities as a
single housing market area.
1.15 Therefore, all of the neighbouring areas are established housing market areas in their
own right. Although interactions with other areas are recognised, from the
perspective of these local authorities, there is no requirement to include Maldon as
part of their respective housing market areas. The logical conclusion is therefore that
Maldon has to be considered as a housing market area in its own right and for the
purposes of planning policy.
2 Peter Brett Associates, July 2015 and updated January 2016
3 HDH Planning, December 2015
4 Turley and Edge Analytics, May 2016
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Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth
Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)
Travel to work
1.16 In terms of defining market areas, NPPG does not suggest an appropriate self-
containment figure. However, the ONS provides a definition of Travel to Work areas
as:
‘The current criterion for defining TTWs is that generally at least 75% of an area’s
resident workforce in the area and at least 75% of the people who work in the area
also live in the area…however, for areas with a working population in excess of
25,000, self-containment rates as low as 66.7% are accepted’5
1.17 Analysis of 2011 census travel to work data illustrates that there is a notable out-
commute of economically active residents who live in Maldon. Overall, 55% live and
work in Maldon and a further 13.5% work in Chelmsford and 9% in other
neighbouring Districts. A further 9.8% work elsewhere in Essex and 9.9% in London.
However, of residents who work in Maldon, 72% live in the District. This analysis
would therefore suggest that Maldon is part of a wider functional economic area
extending across Essex and London but it should be noted that of those working in
Maldon, the majority also live in the District.
Table 1.3 Maldon 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74)