Insights into the - timconsult.de€¦ · Webinar: Brief Update on Transport Market Developments - February March 19, 2020 Register here Update Conference Market Intelligence Initiative

Insights into the Container Freight Market

Insights into the Container Freight Market

27.02.2020

Clemens SchapelerInitiative ManagerTim Consult GmbH

A brief guide to current market factors, ocean carriers & the IMO 2020 impact

Stefan DienerConsultantTim Consult GmbH

Tim Consult in Short

27.02.2020 Public

• 1995: Foundation

Tim Consult

• 2015: Foundation

Tim Consult Inc., USA

• 2018: Merger with Transporeon

• Experts for road &

rail, ocean and air transport

• Procurement specialists

• Logistics strategists

• Data analysis professionals

• 80% DAX 30

• 50 % Fortune 100

• SME market leaders

• 1,700 successful

projects

• More than 100 MII

Community members

• With more than 12 billion Euro freight spend analyzed

History TeamCustomers Achievements

Market Intelligence – Procurement Excellence – Smart Consulting

27.02.2020 Public

Bunker prices

- 20 %Q4/2019 vs. Q3/2019

Containership fleet

23.6 m TEUin February

Total container

volumes in December

14.3 m TEU

Current Market SituationKey factors influencing rates

Sources: Alphaliner; CTS ContainerTradeStatistics

27.02.2020 Public

11,8% of TEU capacity

were scrubber fitted by

early 2020

EC published a draft

regulation proposing to

extend BER

Transpacific container

volumes drop 2,5% in

2019

Current Market SituationNews from ocean carriers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

US

D p

er

MT

Singapore VLSFO Singapore IFO380 Singapore LSMGO

Start of IMO 2020 Regulation

• LSFO currently following

LSMGO price

• High volatility

• Great demand for LSFO

• Peak due to Start of IMO

2020 Regulation

• Mixing of fuel components

brings price close to MGO

• Expect reassurance at

Marine Fuel Market

Comparison of LSFO to other Marine Fuels

Source: Ship&Bunker, 2019; CPC Taiwan, 2019

Ø + 180 USD/MTØ + 300 USD/MT

Public27.02.2020

Bunkering Ports with LSFO Availablity

Source: Tim Consult Research, 2019

LSFO available

Worldwide Hot Spots

27.02.2020 Public

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

US$

/MT

Gibraltar VLSFO Istanbul VLSFOPiraeus VLSFO Rotterdam VLSFOFujairah VLSFO

What happened in the last two weeks?

− Strongly decreasing price differences (77,00 US$/MT)

− Rotterdam with 472,00 US$/MT the cheapest port in Europe (- 0,50 US$/MT)

− Piraeus with 549 US$/MT the most expensive port in Europe (- 30,00 US$/MT)

− Decreasing prices in Europe

− Great differences between the size of the decrease

− Strongest decrease in Istanbul (-71,00 US$/MT)

Europe& Middle East

27.02.2020 Public

Source: Tim Consult Research, 2019

Expected Solutions by Carrier 2020Non-Compliance?

Estimates based on carriers public statements and known ordering activity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

APM-Maersk MSC COSCO CMA CGM Hapag-Lloyd ONE Evergreen Yang Ming HyundaiM.M.

Sha

re o

f V

ess

els

[%]

LNG

Scrubber+ IFO

Low Sulfur Fuel Oil

27.02.2020 Public

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

Wo

rld

cel

lula

r fl

eet

cap

acit

y [T

EU] M

illio

n

Demand & Supply DevelopmentModerate Demand Growth since 2015. Fleet Expansion kept Overcapacity up.

To slow down 2019. Order Book is the big Question Mark for 2020 ff.

+6%+7%

+6%+4,4% +3,5%

* Projections (based on current data operated fleet; demolition is considered) | Sources: Alphaliner (2019); CTS ContainerTradeStatistics | yellow: order book

Supply Development 2015 - 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

Glo

bal

ly s

hip

ped

vo

lum

es [T

EU]

Mill

ion

+4,1%+5,3%

+2,9%+1,1% +2-3%

Demand Development 2015 - 2020

27.02.2020 Public

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March 19, 2020

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