INSEA Integrated Sink Enhancement Assessment – FP 6 Michael Obersteiner DG AGRI Bruxelles 13 th Sept. 2005.

INSEAIntegrated Sink Enhancement

Assessment – FP 6

Michael Obersteiner

DG AGRIBruxelles

13th Sept. 2005

FT

• Forest fires due to abandoned ag-land

• Agriculture sector second largest contributor to GHG emissions after energy sector

• Climate Change and oil prices require to grow more biofuels

• EU to upload sugar

• Ministers seek unity as fuel prices loom

Background

• The Kyoto Protocol requires that EU-15 reduces its GHG emissions by 8% / 1990 levels (time horizon 2008-12)

• Agriculture represents ~10% of EU GHG emissions – No commitment despite possible wellfare increases

• Agricultural and climate/env policies at a crossroad– Emission Trading Scheme (inclusion of agricultural emissions

and sinks? – 23 EURO/tC)– CHP directive, Biomass Action Plan– Clean Air, Nitrate etc…directives, STS– CAP reform and cross-compliance

…the Challenge ahead….

• Identification of integrative, effective and efficient Policies– Competitiveness & New Markets– Rural Development– Environmental Performance

• Transition planning– Mechanism design– Timing– Precise Planning and Forecasting

INSEA-toolbox

Land Use/cover

Soil DB, Management

Ancillary Cost / Technology data

Non C-GHGs

Biomass crops

Sequestered carbon

20302000

2050

Climate

Change

Geography of Production Possibilities

Link to Energy Models

Food Crops / Wood

AgriculturalforestMarketModel

Common Platform

Existing

Data

Engineering

Models

Biophysical Models

EconomicParameters

EnvironmentalImpact Data

Basic Technologies

Alternative Technologies

Existing

Data

Engineering

Models

Biophysical Models

EconomicParameters

EnvironmentalImpact Data

Basic Technologies

Alternative Technologies

National Economic ModelsFASOM

Regional Farm Type Model

AROPAj

Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC

Stand level ModelPICUS

Regional Forest ModelEURO - FOR

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• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision

INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK

All

Par

tne

rs

National Economic ModelsAGRIPOL FASOM


AROPAj

Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC



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EPIC simulates many Processes:

on a daily time step

Weather: simulated or actualHydrology: evapotranspiration, runoff,

percolation, 5 PET equations,...Erosion: wind and water, 7 erosion equationsCarbon sequestration: plant residue, manure,

leaching, sediment,...Crop growth: NPK uptake, stresses, yields,

N-fixation,...Fertilization: application, runoff, leaching,

mineralisation, denitrification, volatilization, nitrification,...

Tillage: mixing, harvest efficiencies,...Irrigation and furrow diking,...Drainage: depth,... Pesticide: application, movement, degradation,...Grazing: trampling, efficiency,...Manure application and transport,...Crop rotations: inter-cropping, weed competition,

annual and perennial crops, trees,...

EPIC/APEX Input data - Management

Crop rotation (crops, grass/legumes, trees)

• date of planting • date & amount of fertilization (kg/ha)• date & amount of irrigation (mm)• date & amount of pesticides (kg/ha of active

ingredients)• date of tillage operation (plough, harrow spike,

field cultivator, thinning,...) • date of harvesting (expected yield), grazing,...

Distribution of BARLEY_REST and MAIZETOT on arable land of Baden-Württemberg as a result of LUCAS Data Broker

BARLEY_REST MAIZETOT

Yield Validation

0 2 4 6 8 10

02

46

81

0

FADN Yield (tha)

EP

IC Y

ield

(t/h

a)

BARLCORNCSILCSUNFALWFPEAGRCLPOTASGBTWRAPWRYEWWHT

Erosion Conventional / Reduced Tillage

Soil Organic Carbon Conventional / Reduced Tillage

SOC

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Years

SO

C i

n t

/ha

convTill redTill minTill covCrop



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Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC



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Farm-level model

EFEMEFEM EPIC

soil mapsoil map land use mapland use map climate dataN- depositionclimate data

N- deposition

GISdatabase

GISdatabase

crop areafertilizer intensityC + N of manure

crop areafertilizer intensityC + N of manure

C-balanceSOC, C- pools

emissions (soil)N2 O, CH4 , CO2

leachingNO3 , DOC





leachingNO3 , DOC

leachingNO3 , DOC

farm emissionsN2 O, CH4 , CO2 , NH3

return ratesshadow prices

mitigation costseconomic indicators







EFEM-DNDC/EPICmanagement

phenologymanagement

phenology

farmstructures

farmstructures

politicalenvironment

politicalenvironment

economicindicatorseconomicindicators

emissionfactors

emissionfactors



AROPAj

Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC



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Emission trajectorium - Agriculture

Animal numbers

Crop area

Pasture/Forage

Purchased Feed

On-farm consumption

Emissions RHS

Constraints C NC CH4 N2O

Objective + + + + - - -t -t

CH4 Enteric fermentation emissions

Cattle + + + + + + -1/23 = 0

Non-Cattle + + + + + + -1/23 = 0

CH4 Manure-management emissions

Cattle + + + + + + -1/23 = 0

Non-Cattle + + + + + + -1/23 = 0

CH4 rice production + + -1/23 = 0

N2O Manure management emissions + + -1/296 = 0

N2O Agr soils direct emissions + + + + -1/296 = 0

N2O Agr soils indirect emissions + + + + -1/296 = 0

N2O Agr soils animal production + + -1/296 = 0

Emission accounting: Overview

Emissions factors

GWPs

Tax (€/tCO2)

Constraints Animal numbers

Crop area

Pasture/Forage

Purchased Feed

On-farm consumption

Emissions RHS

C NC CH4 N2O

Objective + + + + - - - -

Feed requirementsEnergy

+ + - - - - - - <= 0

Protein + + - - - - - - <= 0

Maximum ingested matter (cattle) + - - - - - - => 0

Demography (cattle) +/- = 0

CH4 Enteric fermentation emissions + + + + + + - = 0

CH4 Manure management emissions + + + + + + - = 0

N2O Manure management emissions + + - = 0

N2O Agr soils emissions + + + + - = 0

Animal feeding : current modelling approach (cont’d)

Needs

Energy and protein contents of feed

CapacityTotal matter in feed

EU-15 agricultural abatement supply

-8% / 2001(-15% /1990)

55 EUR/tCO2eq

Infra-regional downscaling(e.g. Baden-Württemberg)

Baseline emissions by source (GWP: CH4=23, N2O=296)

CH4 Enteric ferment. Total

Dairy

Non-dairy

CH4 Manure management Total

Dairy

Swine

N2O Manure management Total Synth fertilizers

Anim. wastes applied to soils

Crop ResidueN2O Agr. soils Dir. Emiss. Subtot

Atm. depositionLeaching and run-off

N2O Agr. soils Indir. Emiss. Subtot

N2O Agr. soils Animal production

other N2O

N2O fertilizer productionCO2 fertilizer prod.CO2 energy plantsCO2 plant dryining

CO2 Pflanze

CO2 purchase feedstuffCO2 energy animals

CO2 animal production

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

UHOH Emissions INRA (1) Emissions INRA (2) Emissions

ktC

O2

INRA/UHOH comparison:Baseline emissions by sources

Common emission coverage

UHOH: 5092 ktCO2eq INRA: 5115

ktCO2eq

0,000

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Tax (EUR/tCO2)

Ab

atem

ent

(ktC

O2)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

INRA estimates of marginal abatement costs

BW

Germany

EU-15

-80 -60 -40 -20 0

01

00

02

00

03

00

04

00

05

00

06

00

0

Per-tC net impact on revenue (minimum tillage, population-weighted)

EUR/tC

Nu

mb

er

of f

arm

s

Mean: StdVar: Min: Max: N: Total:

Sample -4.3 EUR/tC 12.1 EUR/tC -86 EUR/tC 8.6 EUR/tC

561 farms -0.49 10^6 EUR

Total -3.8 EUR/tC 11.9 EUR/tC -86 EUR/tC 8.6 EUR/tC

22728 farms -13.4 10^6 EUR



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Land Use Change until 2100 for B1Intensity map: (affected) ha x C-uptake

Existing forestAfforestationDeforestation

National Economic Models

FASOM


AROPAj

Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC



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Basic Modeling

Processing

Markets

Feed Mixing

Other Resources

Grazing

Labor

Pasture Land

Natl. Inputs

Forestland

Water

Livestock Production

CropProduction

Export

DomesticDemand

Import

Biofuel/GHGDemand

ForestProduction

Cropland

Mitigation Strategy Equilibrium

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Car

bon

pri

ce (

$/tc

e)

Emission reduction (mmtce)

CH4N2O

Ag-Soil sequestration

Afforestation

Biofuel offsets

Example with 5 biofuel plants

Cars Fuel (MW)Bio

(ODT/year)

461500 185 521100

514300 206 580800

1E+06 463 1307600

462300 185 522100

362800 145 409700

Cost in €/GJMEOH

Cost in € / lMEOH

Summary

• Detailed Biophysical Models– Yield Impacts– Environmental Impact Assessment

• Integrated from Farm – Global Agriculture/Forestry/Energy Model

Conclusion

• No free lunches– transfer from Energy sector

• Trade-offs (Ammonia vs N2O, Minimum tillage vs. Pesticides)

• Heterogeneity in biophysical and economic responses.

• Use economic instruments or very well planned traditional (supported by precise scientific tools)

INSEA Integrated Sink Enhancement Assessment – FP 6 Michael Obersteiner DG AGRI Bruxelles 13 th Sept. 2005.

Documents

common platform slide

standards common database

forecasting slide

eu ghg emissions

ghg response

crosscompliance slide

manure application

energy sector climate