INTERNATIONAL PROJECT ON INNOVATIVE NUCLEAR REACTORS AND FUEL CYCLES (INPRO) INPRO Task 1 “GLOBAL SCENARIOS” Presented by Vladimir KUZNETSOV INPRO Section INPRO Dialogue Forum 11 “Roadmaps for a transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems”
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INTERNATIONAL PROJECT ON INNOVATIVE NUCLEAR
REACTORS AND FUEL CYCLES (INPRO)
INPRO Task 1
“GLOBAL SCENARIOS”
Presented by Vladimir KUZNETSOV
INPRO Section
INPRO Dialogue Forum 11 “Roadmaps for a transition to
globally sustainable nuclear energy systems”
IAEA 2
Services and Training Offered for NES
Strategic Planning Tools
• INPRO offers training on nuclear energy system
(NES) strategic planning tools:
• NES Assessment (NESA) using the INPRO Methodology
helps develop a more detailed technical perspective of
actions needed to improve sustainability – a “gap”
assessment
• NES Scenario Analysis helps develop a dynamic picture
view of NES strategy and sustainability outcomes
• Key Indicator evaluation and analysis helps better
understand and communicate benefits and risks
associated with still immature innovative NES
IAEA
Nuclear Energy System (NES)
Strategic Planning: 3 linked Parts
3
National Energy Planning:
How does nuclear energy fit
into the national energy mix?
Nuclear Energy System
Assessment (NESA):
INPRO Methodology of
sustainability assessment
What are the gaps?
Nuclear Energy System
(NES) modelling and the
‘GAINS Framework’: How
do we get from here to
there and beyond?
IAEA
INPRO methodology: Key Indicator approach
(IAEA-TECDOC-1575)
4
IAEA
INPRO TASK 1 “GLOBAL SCENARIOS”
Objective:
To develop, based on scientific
and technical analysis, global
and regional nuclear energy
scenarios that lead to a global
vision of sustainable nuclear
energy in the 21st century
5
Paper 15483 Session 8.04 ICAPP 2015
3-6 May 2015, Nice, France
Global Scenarios: Heterogeneous world model introduced in GAINS
Non-personified, non-geographical
groups of countries with different
policies regarding the fuel cycle
back end:
NG1-recycling strategy;
NG2-direct disposal/reprocessing
abroad strategy
NG3- looking for minimal NFC
infrastructure: disposal or reprocessing
abroad
INPRO COLLABORATIVE PROJECT ON GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE OF
INNOVATIVE NUCLEAR ENERGY SYSTEMS WITH THERMAL AND FAST
KIND: Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty treatment
• In the framework of the KIND approach, uncertainties can be examined through a
sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty can be objective like KI value and subjective like
indicator weight or method parameters. The sensitivity analysis should explore impact of
changing in key indicators, weights and method parameters, for example value/utility
function on ranking results. Application of uncertainty analysis methods requires more
information about system features and experts’ preferences but, at the same time, may
greatly enhance the decision-maker capabilities to incorporate in the analysis of the
uncertainties of both the objective (in indicator values) and subjective (in weights) nature.
Illustration of ‘Linear weight’ approach to weights
sensitivity analyses
To implement this method the expert should choose
an indicator for a weight sensitivity analysis and
analyze how the ranking alternatives will change
with a weighting factor changing from 0 to 1 (other
weights are automatically changed proportionally
holding the weight sum equal to unity).
This approach may be implemented for the
weighting factors on each level of the objectives
tree: the high-level aggregated objectives, an
assessment area level, and indicators level.
Case study on comparison of hypothetical INESs
• Demonstration of procedures for multi-criteria comparative analysis was performed on the
numerical examples of the 2 and 5 hypothetical INESs comparison. • 15 KIs were used
• Evaluation of 15 KIs is performed using 10 and 5 scoring scale (for 2 and 5 INESs, correspondingly)
Application of KIND approach to comparative evaluation
of scenarios (GAINS and SYNERGIES)
Intermediate conclusions of KIND
The KIND approach could be a useful tool to support communication to
decision makers.
The KIND methodology based on a key indicator set with judgment aggregation
and uncertainty analysis methods, employing indicator scales and utility
functions, was found to be very flexible and applicable to a variety of tasks,
including comparative evaluations of not only INS, but also, NES evolution
scenarios, NES and non-nuclear energy sources and, potentially, evolutionary
NES. For each of these applications an individual key indicator set needs to be
developed.
It was noted that a top level aggregated score is typically of little use to
communicate key differences between evaluated systems. More productive
communications could be achieved at lower aggregation levels using graphic
presentations taking into account uncertainties in the comparison
Intermediate Conclusions of KIND
Taking into account the above said, the project could develop a detailed
guidance and a software tool for application of the KIND methodology,
completed with necessary justifications and verifications. As comes to
key indicators sets, only a guidance on development, and the
examples, of such sets for particular tasks could be provided, leaving
final definitions to interested Member States.
E-learning
Training on Nuclear Energy Sustainability: Users’ Guide for Modelling
Nuclear Energy Systems with MESSAGE
(D-NG-T-5.2, approved for publication, in print)
Users Guide, developed jointly
with PESS, provides a step-by-
step guidance to create
mathematical models
representing nuclear energy
systems to the level of detail as
necessary.
The User Guide presents three
demonstration cases including
modelling a nuclear energy
system based on thermal and fast
reactors with fully closed fuel
cycle.
MESSAGE model allows to assess:
Optimal Schedule for introduction various reactor technologies and fuel cycle options
Infrastructure requirements
Nuclear material flows and wastes
Investments, and other costs
E-learning
Training for nuclear energy sustainability
Distant lecturing on INPRO Methodology for Nuclear Energy System Assessment, September-November, 2014, State Engineering University of Armenia
• INPRO overview • Introduction to INPRO methodology and NESA • Economic analysis of energy options • INPRO Analytical framework for the analysis of transition scenarios to sustainable nuclear
energy systems • Overview of MESSAGE, DESAE, NFCSS • INPRO area of Economics; • INPRO areas of Infrastructure, Safety of nuclear reactors , Environment and Waste
management
E-learning
Training for nuclear energy sustainability
Distance INPRO training on State-of-the-Art Methods and Tools for Sustainability Assessment of Nuclear Energy Systems, February-May, 2015 ,
to the Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering (INPE) of the National Research Nuclear University (NRNU MEPhI) in the Russian Federation, and higher education institutions and nuclear industry organizations in Belarus (State University and Republican Unitary Enterprise "Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant") and Kazakhstan (Nuclear Technology Safety Centre and Institute for Strategic Studies).
• Introduction to INPRO. The concept
of sustainable development and the INPRO methodology .
• INPRO methodology and NESA • Economic analysis of energy options • GAINS framework ; Overview of
nuclear fuell cycle modelling tools • Lectures from NRNU MEPhI