Innovative Policy and Technology Foresight in Korea 2011. 5. 3 Suk Joon KIM, Ph.D. President Science and Technology Policy Institute Republic of Korea.

Innovative Policy and

Technology Foresight in

Korea 2011 . 5. 3

Suk Joon KIM, Ph.D.Suk Joon KIM, Ph.D.

PresidentScience and Technology Policy Institute

Republic of Korea

2

ContentsContents

Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies

Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight

Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement

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Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators

Source: Bureau of Statistics.

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population(1000) 25,012 32,241 38,124 42,869 45,985 48,874

GDP(US$, Billion) 2.0 8.1 63.8 263.7 511.8 1,014.3

Growth Rate of GDP(%) 1.2 8.8 -1.5 9.2 8.5 6.2

GDP per capita(US$) 79 254 1,645 6,147 10,841 20,753

Trade Balance(US$, Million) -311 -1,149 -4,787 -4,828 11,786 41,172

Exports(US$, Million) 33 835 17,505 65,016 172,268 466,384

Imports(US$, Million) 344 1,984 22,292 69,844 160,481 425,212

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STISTI(Science, Technology and Innovation(Science, Technology and Innovation) Statistics and Outputs) Statistics and Outputs

Source: Ministry of Science and Technology.* R&D / GNP ** year of 2008

1963 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009

GERD(US$, Million) 4 33 428 4,676 13,849 31,288

Gov’t-funded vs. Private-funded(%) 97 : 3 71 : 29 64 : 36 19 : 81 25 : 75 29 : 71

R&D Expenditure/GDP(%) 0.25* 0.38* 0.77* 1.87 2.39 3.57

No. of Researchers(FTE, Persons) n.a. 5,628 18,434 70,503 159,973 309,063

No. of Applications for Domestic Patents 771 1,846 5,070 25,820 102,136 163,523

No. of Applications for U.S. Patents 3(1964) 3 8 225 3,786 23,584**

No. of Articles Published on SCI Journals n.a. n.a. 236(1981) 1,587 12,472 35,569

No. of Industrial Laboratories n.a. n.a. 46(1981) 966 7,110 16,719**

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ExportsExports

Source: Korea Int’l Trade Association, Korea Customs Service.

Item %

1 Iron Ore 13.0

2 Tungsten Ore 12.6

3 Raw Silk 6.7

4 Anthracite 5.8

5 Cuttlefish 5.5

6 Live Fish 4.5

7 Natural Graphite 4.2

8 Plywood 3.3

9 Rice 3.3

10 Bristles 3.0

[1960s]Natural Resource

[1980s]Light Industries; Heavy and Chemical Industries

[2000s]High-tech. Industries; Heavy and Chemical Industries

1960 1980 2009

Item %

Textiles 28.8

Electronics 11.4

Iron/Steel Products 9.0

Footwear 5.2

Ships 3.5

Synthetic Fibers 3.3

Metal Products 2.3

Plywood 2.0

Fish 2.0

Electrical Goods 1.9

Item %

Ships 10.2

Wireless Telecom. Equipment 8.1

Semiconductor 6.7

LCD 6.4

Automobile 6.2

Petrochemical Products 6.1

Automobile Parts 3.0

Broadcasting Equipment 1.6

Special Ships 1.4

Computers 1.4

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Technological Needs/EffortsTechnological Needs/Efforts

Source: Hwang, Yongsoo (2007).

Industry forIndustry forPromotionPromotion

TechnologicalTechnologicalNeedsNeeds

TechnologicalTechnologicalEffortsEfforts

1960s1960s 1970s1970s 1980s1980s 1990s1990s 2000s2000s

LightIndustry

Heavy and Chemical Industry

Technology-Intensive Industry

New Industry Including ICT

Knowledge-Intensive Industry

OperationTechnology

Equipment-embodied

Technology

ProductionTechnology

Critical/Essential

Technology

CreativeTechnology

Importation/Learning of

Turnkey-based Foreign

Technologies

Absorption/Assimilation

of ForeignTechnologies,

ReverseEngineering

Modificationof Foreign

Technologies,Fostering ofEndogenousTechnology

Development

Broadening/Deepening of

DomesticR&D Efforts

Strengtheningof Future-oriented

R&DEfforts

ImitationImitation InnovationInnovation

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ContentsContents

Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies

Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight

Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement

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577 Initiative577 Initiative

Input 5%Investment

Reach to 5% of GDP on GERD

Process7

Focused Areas

① World-class human resources ② Basic & fundamental research ③ SMEs’ innovation ④ S&T globalization ⑤ Regional innovation ⑥ S&T infrastructure ⑦ S&T culture

* SMEs : Small-and Medium-sized Enterprises

Perfor-mance Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the world

① Key industrial technologies

② Emerging industrial technologies

③ Knowledge-based service

technologies

④ State-led Technologies

⑤ National issues-related technologies

⑥ Global issues-related technologies

⑦ Basic & convergent technologies

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R&D –R&D – Concentrate on 7 major technology areasConcentrate on 7 major technology areas

We will concentrate on the development of 90 technologies in the 7 major technology areas

Area(# of tech.) Technology (partly shown)

1. Key Industrial Tech. (12)• Environment-friendly automotive Technology• Intelligent Production System Technology

2. Emerging Industrial Tech. (20)• Cancer diagnosis and treatment Technology• Medical apparatus development Technology

3. Knowledge-based Service Tech.(3)• Converging Contents and Knowledge Service Technology• Advanced Logistics Technology

4. State-led Tech.(20)• Satellite Development Technology• Super-long Bridge Construction Technology

5. National Issues- related Tech.(10)• Immune Disease and Infectious Disease Response Technology• Insect Pest and Disease Prevention and Control Technology

6. Global Issues-related Tech.(18)• Next-Generation Fuel Cells & Energy Storage and Conversion Technology• New and Renewable Energy Technology

7. Basic & Convergent Tech.(7)• Drug Delivery Technology• Nano-based Functional Materials Technology

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Goals –Goals – Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the worldBecome one of 7 major S&T powers in the world

Output index

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Tech. Foresight as a STI Policy InstrumentTech. Foresight as a STI Policy Instrument

Technology Foresight is utilized to inform on-going decision-making through the better understanding of advances in S&T and its interaction with the future society, in long term perspectives

Rapidly changing business & tech. env

Climate Changes.

Fast ageing society

Globalization & Newly rising economy

Wild Cards

Challenges (under Korean context)

Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight

Society

Technology

Economy

Ecology

Politics

Value

FreshWater

Security

Meet EnergyDemand

NewBusiness

BasicResearch

North Korea

Issues

Enhancing

S&T

Competitiveness

Enhancing

S&T

Competitiveness

Trends

STI Policy/StrategyFormulation

- Design Innovative S&T System

- Identify Strategic Research Area• key technologies

STI Policy/StrategyFormulation

- Design Innovative S&T System

- Identify Strategic Research Area• key technologies

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ContentsContents

Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies

Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight

Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement

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Chronology of Technology Foresight ActivitiesChronology of Technology Foresight Activities

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Tech. Foresight Activities and STEPI CapabilityTech. Foresight Activities and STEPI Capability Technology Foresight Activities in Korea (partly shown)

Technology Foresight Research in STEPI Main facilitator of the 1st(1993) and 2nd(1998) Korean TF Key partner institute for the 3rd (2003) and 4th (2010) Korean TF Providing TF tutorial for the developing countries through ART and TAP since 2001 Currently (in 2011)– Carrying out theme-based TFs in energy and environment area– Dissemination the foresight knowledge through ‘Future Horizon’(quarterly magazine) and ‘STEPI Foresight newsletter’(bi-weekly)

Year Ministry Theme Time Horizon Major Method

2006 Ministry of Information and Communication

Foresight for Information Technology 2030 Delphi

Ubiquitous Korea +15 yrs Panel

2006 Ministry of Health and WelfareFuture Trends in Health care and Life Science

+15 yrs Delphi

2006 Ministry of EnvironmentFuture Trends in Environmental Technology

+15 yrsEnvironmental

Scanning Delphi

2007 Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (MOCIE)

Industrial Technology 2030 Panel

2008-09 Ministry of Knowledge EconomyMajor 5 IT area (SW/Platform/Network/Terminal/convergence)

2020 Delphi

2010 Ministry of Knowledge Economy 2030 IT Convergence Technology 2030 Delphi

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4th Korean S&T Foresight : Framework4th Korean S&T Foresight : Framework Identification of future technology alternatives Technology Solution and its realization timing (Delphi Survey) Future Scenario and Strategic Policy Options

* courtesy of KISTEP

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ContentsContents

Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies

Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight

Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement

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From Foresight to STI Policy : From Foresight to STI Policy : Green TechnologyGreen Technology

Results of Forward Looking Activity

Results of Forward Looking Activity Other Future ReportsOther Future Reports

MegatrendMegatrend Limited naturalresource

Limited naturalresource

Shortage ofclean waterShortage ofclean water

Low carbon society

Low carbon society

High energy demand

High energy demand

OECDWorld Resource InstituteEU Foresight ReportStern Review(UK)IEA, etc.

The 2nd & 3rd Tech ForesightS&T Vision 2040National Vision 2030Industry Vision 2030Green Growth Vision etc.

ImplicationImplication

- Strengthen national competiveness through proactive measures for future energy & environment challenges

- Upgrade national innovation system for sustainable growth

- Nurture new economic growth engines in energy and environment industry through advances in Future science and technology

New and Emerging Technologies in Energy and Environment Area

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Green Technology(GT) Strategy in KoreaGreen Technology(GT) Strategy in Korea

Main Contents of GT R&D Master Plan by NSTC

Source : GT R&D Master Plan, 2009. 1. 13

Direction for Investment into GT DevelopmentDirection for Investment into GT Development

• Double R&D expenditure by ’12• Increase of Basic R&D to 35%

• Selection of Key GTs based ongrowth and green impacts

Increase of GT R&D Investment Increase of GT R&D Investment 27 GTs for focused development 27 GTs for focused development

Convergence

Green Tech

Increase of

Basic R&D

Make existing

Industries green

Enlarging GT

R&D Infra

Strategy for GT Development

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From Foresight to STI Policy : From Foresight to STI Policy : Information Tech.Information Tech.

Forward looking Activity in Korea

Forward looking Activity in Korea Other Future ReportsOther Future Reports

Megatrends Convergence Convergence VirtualizationVirtualization All things ConnectedAll things

Connected

Each Country’s TF results(USA , EU Framework etc.)Gartner, IBM, Nielson, Economist, wired, IFTF etc.

The 2nd & 3rd Tech ForesightS&T Vision 2040National Vision 2030IT TF 2020 (2007)IT Convergence TF 2030(2011)

- Maintain current competiveness in IT Manufacturing but it needs to widen IT value chain to Service and Contents- Focusing on convergence with other industries- Promote mass creativity based on IT Solution

Implication

SmartSmart

New and Emerging Technologies in Information Technology Area

20

New IT StrategyNew IT Strategy

Source : Ministry of Knowledge Economy(2008) “New IT Strategy”

Vision Advancement of Industrial StructureAnd Solution of Social Problems

Advancement of Industrial StructureAnd Solution of Social Problems

Objectives

IT + Service Industry

Converged Product

Embedded SW

IT Converged Processor

Green IT(Environment-friendly/Energy)

LED Industry

Life + IT

Health Bio + IT

Network/ Wireless Comm.

Semiconductor/Display

IT Components & SW Industry

• Convergence of IT & other industries - Creation of High Added- Value and Improvement of Productivity

1. IT Industry Convergent with other Industries

• Construction of Industrial

Basis for High Oil Prices &

Aging Phenomenon

2. IT Industry solvingEconomic & Social

Problems

• Consolidation of Cooperation

among Enterprises and

Enhancement of Components

& SW Competitiveness

3. IT IndustryAdvancing Higher

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ContentsContents

Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean S&T Plans and Policies

Korean Technology ForesightKorean Technology Foresight

Linking Foresight to STI Policy : CasesLinking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Korean STI Development and AchievementKorean STI Development and Achievement

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Lessons Learned (1/2)Lessons Learned (1/2)

key instrument for STI policy/strategy formulation

by addressing long-term future challenges and societal issues

<National strategic technology selection procedures: 18 years of experiences>

→ Implemented into 5yr National S&T Basic Plan

→ Priority setting for strategic research area : 7 areas/90 technologies

→ Sector-based STI strategy and success: GT, IT (LCD, LED, IT Service)

key linkage in fusion and convergence technology paradigm

→ it helps to build new networks and linkages across fields

→ Facilitate the adoption of inter-disciplinary thinking over long term horizon

Increasing Importance and success of Tech. Foresight in Korean STIIncreasing Importance and success of Tech. Foresight in Korean STI

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Lessons Learned (2/2)Lessons Learned (2/2)

Strategic technology selection and focused investment Essential for emerging economy’s S&T development with scarce resources both in Human capital and S&T infra,

Based on Korea’s experience, it is highly recommended to adopt strategic tech. selection procedure with tech. foresight for effective national STI policy/strategy formulation

Build-up national champions in strategic target S&T areas Along with global fusion and convergence technology paradigm shifts, strategic national target S&T areas should be raised up as national champions in cooperation of domestic indigenous enterprises.

Implication for Emerging Economy for Adopting Tech. ForesightImplication for Emerging Economy for Adopting Tech. Foresight

Thank you !!Thank you !!