September 2018 Innovative investment solutions that deliver David Kingsley, Managing Director, Man Group Confidential. For the attendees of the Alexander Forbes IFA Symposium 2018 only. Not for public distribution.
September 2018
Innovative investment solutions that deliverDavid Kingsley, Managing Director, Man Group
Confidential. For the attendees of the Alexander Forbes IFA Symposium 2018 only. Not for public distribution.
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Overview
The revolution in technology and data is assisting and advancing investment management
Managers that invest in researching and developing new quantitative techniques can unlock new sources of potential returns
At Man we have been able to apply these to a range of different alternative strategies
Our clients are already benefitting from their diversification potential and efficiency of implementation
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Man
As at 30 June 2018.
Any descriptions or information involving investment process or strategies are provided for illustration purposes only, may not be fully indicative of any present or future investments, may be changed at the discretion of the investment manager and are not intended to reflect performance. There is no guarantee of trading performance and past performance is no indication of current or future performance/results. See Important Information at the beginning of this document.
1. Combined AUM of Man AHL and Man Numeric.
Source: Man Group Database. 2
Expertise and technology seeking to offer high quality investment strategies
Man runs approximately USD 57 billion1 in systematic
strategies
Researching, developing and trading systematic strategies
since 1987 – with emphasis on diversification
26 years’ experience of risk oversight and portfolio
construction helps implement strategies at high capacity
Robust approval process and fiduciary oversight
Alpha Expertise
We believe that state-of-the art systematic strategies
necessitate state-of-the art technology at all stages
Aim to keep trading costs at an absolute minimum
Man’s alternative strategies are therefore executed in-
house, on equal footing with other strategies
Pioneer in systematic trading for more than 30 years
Over 400 markets traded daily, with 40 counterparties
Execution Technology
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Revolution #1: Computing Power
Source: Thomas Scherer, “50 Years of Moore’s Law”, elektor May 26 2015, https://www.elektormagazine.com/articles/moores-law/6631. 3
“Moore’s Law”
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Today’s phones are more powerful than supercomputers of 30 years ago
The iPhone X is easily more powerful than the Cray 2
CPU 250 GFLOPs
Memory: 256 GB
4Source: Campbell R. Harvey, Duke University
2017 iPhone X (A11 Bionic)Cray 2
The world’s fastest supercomputer: 1985-1990
CPU: 1.9 GFLOPs*
Memory: 2GB
Weight: 5,500 pounds
Cost: $32 million (current $)
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1997 - $100
2000 - $10
2004 - $1
2018 - $0.04
Revolution #2: Data Generation & Storage
Source: Man Group database; IBM, BIG DATA + MAINFRAME, 2014, https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/community/files/form/anonymous/api/library/054c2ab9-ea33-4c70-b0c6-b5bb2482a098/document/7de665ff-2327-41a8-b7b0-5f0bba97356f/media/BIG%20DATA%20%2B%20MAINFRAME.pdf; McKinsey Global Institute, Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition and productivity, June 2011, 5
90% of data that exists today generated in last 2 years
Year 2020: IBM projects 35 zettabytes (1 ZB = 1 billion TB)
McKinsey projection: 40% growth per year
Man AHL data library
Holds: 1.5 trillion price ticks
Peak rate: 120,000 ticks per second
22 Jan 2016: 2.2 billion price ticks
Nov 2015: 1.2 billion / day
Jun 2015: 800 million / day
Cost per GB of storage
1981 - $300,000
1987 - $50,000
1990 - $10,000
1994 - $1000
1997 - $100
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The growth of data represents both a challenge and an opportunity
1. Source: Patrick Cheesman (via EE Times: Digital Data Storage is Undergoing Mind-Boggling Growth, Dr. Lauro Rizzatti, Verification Consultant 14/9/2016). 6
Less resourced investors may struggle to harness the growth of data. We believe the real opportunity is in the areas with high
barriers to entry. These can be intellectual, financial or operational.
The explosion of data¹
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Exabyte
s(b
illio
ns o
f G
B)
Structured data Unstructured data
“Between the dawn of civilization and
2003, we only created five exabytes;
now we're creating that amount every
two days.”
Hal Varian,
Chief Economist at Google.
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Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
A unique collaboration between Man Group plc and Oxford University
Opened Summer 2007
Vision to become the world leading center for research in quantitative finance
Research focus: Machine Learning in alternative investments
Ongoing collaborations with Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, Statistics
Man Research Laboratory
Embedded commercial research laboratory
Staffed by employees working on dedicated research projects
Strong focus on quant
Source: Man Group. 7
Leverage machine learning in investment
The Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance
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What is Machine Learning?
Source: Man database, Google 8
Machine learning is a collection of statistical algorithms that allow machines to
learn about the environment and to interact with it.
Historically, machine learning algorithms have been developed in Engineering,
Computer Science, Robotics or Artificial Intelligence departments of
universities.
These algorithms leverage on large amounts of data and are
capable of uncovering non-linear relationships that a human
would find hard to detect.
Where can we find machine learning today?
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What is Machine Learning?
Source: Google 9
Take face recognition, for example
Combine with next slide
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Technology provides opportunities for quantitative managers and …
Quantitative manager challenges
Invest in new sources and higher volumes of data
Develop new quantitative techniques
Invest in speed
Illustrative example. For informational purposes only.
Source: Man Group proprietary database. 10
Linear Combination
Short-term trend
Conventional trend following suggests a
neutral position
+-
+
-
Long
-te
rm tre
nd
Machine Learning algorithm may suggest a
long position
Machine Learning
Short-term
trend
+-
+
-
Long
-te
rm tre
nd
Long position
Neutral position
Short position
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… and technology provides opportunities for both quantitative and
discretionary managers
Discretionary manager challenges
Analyse and improve decisions of human investment managers
Focus on skills that they have, remove other exposures
Deliver customised data to investment managers
Factor chart: Data from August 2011 to March 2018. For illustrative purposes only. Please note that the attribution data is not intended to represent actual past or simulated past performance of an investment product and does not take into account sales and redemption charges where such costs are applicable. Source: Man Group proprietary database. 11
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17
Gro
ss p
erf
orm
an
ce
att
rib
utio
n
Specific Country Market Industry Style
Removing factor exposures has been shown to improve discretionary returns
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
At Man we found discretionary managers had
little alpha from country, market, industry or
style selection
Technology allows those factor exposures and
risk budgets to be spent better
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Innovative investment solutions
1. Represents slippage based on one of Man AHL’s Flagship Programmes using Momentum. Man AHL executes futures and FX flow using algorithms developed internally since 2002. External broker algorithms largely used for benchmarking Man AHL’s Alpha Programme’s futures slippage yield is the realized annual cost during 2014 since inception on 3/3/2014, executed as part of strategies with AUM of USD 4.2bn. Man AHL executes a random portion of its trades using four broker algorithms for benchmarking purposes. The algorithmic slippage is the realized slippage of broker algorithms for Equities, FX and Fixed Income and reported broker realised slippage for Fixed Income and Commodities.
Any descriptions or information involving investment process or strategies is provided for illustration purposes only, may not be fully indicative of any present or future investments, may be changed in the discretion of the investment manager and are not intended to reflect performance. See Important Information at the beginning of this document.
Source: Man Group Database.
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In-house trading platform seeks to help protect clients’ returns from hidden costs
Man has almost three decades of experience in developing systematic trading
methodologies
Institutional scale helps sustain investment in our in-house developed global
execution systems
Continuous R&D to improve platform and rigorous benchmarking with external brokers
Man’s Execution Costs1
Futures Markets
27
50
63
0
20
40
60
80
Bps
9
20
33
0
10
20
30
40
Bps
FX Markets
Man Internal Execution
Best Broker Algorithm
Worst Broker Algorithm
Why Execution Matters: Total Cost of Accessing a Market
Commissions
Settlement costs
Custodian costs
Administration costs
Bid/offer spreads
Timing
Market impact
Return decay
HFT Interference
Pre-trade impact
Signal gaming
T R
A D
I N
G C
O S
T S
EXPLICIT
IMPLICIT
HIDDEN
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Conclusion
The revolution in technology and data is assisting and advancing investment management
Managers that invest in researching and developing new quantitative techniques can unlock new sources of potential returns
At Man we have been able to apply these to a range of different alternative strategies
Our clients are already benefitting from their diversification potential and efficiency of implementation
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Important information
This information is communicated and/or distributed by the relevant Man entity identified below (collectively the “Company”) subject to the following conditions and restriction in their
respective jurisdictions.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and may not be shared by all personnel of Man Group plc (‘Man’). These opinions are subject to change without notice, are for information
purposes only and do not constitute an offer or invitation to make an investment in any financial instrument or in any product to which the Company and/or its affiliates provides
investment advisory or any other financial services. Any organisations, financial instrument or products described in this material are mentioned for reference purposes only which
should not be considered a recommendation for their purchase or sale. Neither the Company nor the authors shall be liable to any person for any action taken on the basis of the
information provided. Some statements contained in this material concerning goals, strategies, outlook or other non-historical matters may be forward-looking statements and are based
on current indicators and expectations. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update or
revise any forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in
the statements. The Company and/or its affiliates may or may not have a position in any financial instrument mentioned and may or may not be actively trading in any such securities.
This material is proprietary information of the Company and its affiliates and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without prior written consent from the
Company. The Company believes the content to be accurate. However accuracy is not warranted or guaranteed. The Company does not assume any liability in the case of incorrectly
reported or incomplete information. Unless stated otherwise all information is provided by the Company. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Unless stated otherwise this information is communicated by Man Solutions Limited which is registered in England and Wales at Riverbank House, 2 Swan Lane, London, EC4R 3AD.
Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.
This material is proprietary information and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without prior written consent. Any data services and information
available from public sources used in the creation of this material are believed to be reliable. However accuracy is not warranted or guaranteed. © Man 2018.
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