Innovative Hydrologic Products and Services from the National Weather Service Gregory P. Shelton Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS West Gulf River Forecast.

Innovative Hydrologic Products and Services from the

National Weather Service

Gregory P. SheltonService Coordination Hydrologist

NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center – Fort Worth, TX

Tracy HowiesonHydrologic Services Program Manager

NWS Southern Region Headquarters – Fort Worth, TX

http://water.weather.govNWS Hydrologic Services

Overview Education/Outreach

Turn Around Don’t Drown® High Water Mark Signs Partnerships

Products/Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Decision Support/Customer Involvement Decision Support Services Societal Impacts Research

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Turn Around Don’t Drown®

Campaign to raise public awareness of flood hazards while driving

DOT Approved Road Signs Sign Guidelines can be found at:

http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov/SHSm/warning.pdf http://tadd.weather.gov/road_signs.shtml

Available Signs: Incident Sign (magenta) Warning Sign (yellow)

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Turn Around Don’t Drown® Signs deployed along flood prone roads Example of Campaign Activities

NWS Sign Deployment Oklahoma Floodplain Managers Association (OFMA)

Tennessee Sign Deployment Grant Opportunities for Emergency Managers, etc.

• Walmart• State Farm Insurance

TADD Information http://tadd.weather.gov/tadd-resources.shtml

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High Water Mark Signs Campaign to raise community awareness of

local flood risk Signs can be deployed anywhere in the

community Signs communicate ways to receive river

information

HWM Information: http://www.weather.gov/os/water/high_water/

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Example Sign

Wadley, AL

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Current Sign Locations

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Utilizing Partnerships Increased need for outreach and education in

the Hydrologic Services Program Service Coordination Hydrologist

Liaison with stakeholders and partners

Actively engage partners Texas Flash Flood Coalition Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy

UNESCO - University of Iowa

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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Overhaul of NWS Hydrologic Services

Mississippi Flood of 1993, Red River of the North Flood of 1997

Service and Science Enhancements River Forecast Services

Longer-range ensemble forecast technique to quantify forecast certainty Projected completion in 2014 (2553 of 4011 forecast points as of 04/2010)

Flash Flood Services Higher resolution modeling for fast responding rivers Advanced tools to better identify risk and improve warning accuracy and lead time

Inundation Mapping Services Depict spatial extent and depth of flood waters near NWS forecast points 47 points as of (04/2010) Partnerships with FEMA, USGS, States, River Authorities, etc.

Dissemination Services http://water.weather.gov

Outreach Biannual survey of key customers administered by CFI Group

CSI for 2008 – 80 ( Government average – 68) National Flood Safety Awareness Week (launched 2005) Partnership with The Weather Channel® to develop educational videos

Water’s Fury (2004) Cyclone: Second Wave (2007)

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AHPSWeb Portal

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Precipitation DataNational 24-Hour Precipitation Best Estimate Static zoom to states/regions Various time scales from 1 day to 1 year Normal, Departure from Normal, and Percent of Normal graphics

Experimental Hourly Precipitation Best Estimate Google API maps Various time scales from 1 – 120 hours www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

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River Information

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River Information

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Probabilistic Forecasts

90 day Exceedance Probability Weekly Exceedance Histogram

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90 Day Exceedance Example

Conditional stages higher than “observed” stages…therefore

wetter than normal

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Weekly Histogram Example

12 out of 50 times the stage increased above the simulation starting stage (25%)

38 out of 50 times the stage decreased from the starting stage and the starting stage was always the maximum

At 12z 9/17/2008SOLT2 was 26.26ft

75% chance of being above flood stage 3 months from now

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Flood Inundation Mapping Map types

Predefined Levels Flood Categories Current Forecast

Overlays Street maps Aerial photos

Map Tools Zoom Mouse over for water depth Export to multiple formats

(including shapefiles)

Current forecast zoomed to forecast point

Flood categories zoomed to nearby neighborhood

Full map with aerial photo and predefined height displayed

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Trinity River at DallasCurrent Observation:38.38 FT at 11 UTC on 9/14/09

Forecast Stages

Current forecast ordinates plotted

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NWSChat Before Chat…

Phone and e-mail Are the right people getting the right information in a timely

manner?

Why Chat? Augment existing communications by bringing

stakeholders into the decision making process through a one many concept

Who’s Chatting? Emergency Management, Federal, and Regional entities

(i.e. public safety officials, USACE, USGS, river authorities)

How are we Chatting? https://nwschat.weather.gov

Click on Request NWSChat Account Sign up for an account and create a user ID

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Example – Partner CoordinationDiscussion between NWS and Harris County Flood Control District (City of Houston) on potential rainfall and impacts

USGS relaying stream flow measurements from the field and coordinating on additional locations

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iNWS Prototype system to provide NWS alerts on

mobile devices Community Leaders and Government Partners

inws.wrh.noaa.gov Viewable from computer and mobile devices Alerts based on customer preference Alerts now include river observations and

forecasts

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Societal Impacts WAS*IS (Water and Science – Integrated

Studies) Social science into the weather/water enterprise to

improve response to warnings/emergencies Customer involvement in NWS policy and

product development Numerous local, regional, and federal projects

Designed to elicit feedback/input from customers Drive new initiatives

Effectively communicate risk Ensure customers needs are known and

addressed

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Summary Education/Outreach

Improving awareness and preparedness Products/Services

Providing information before, during, and after events

Decision Support/Customer Involvement Ensuring the right information is being

communicated

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Questions/Comments? Gregory Shelton

Service Coordination Hydrologist

NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center

817-831-3289 x323

[email protected]

Tracy HowiesonHydrologic Services Program Manager

NWS Southern Region

817-978-1100 x120

[email protected]