Innovation Leadership Skills for the High-Tech Economy - Demand, Supply and Forecasting Tobias Hüsing, empirica Eriona Dashja, empirica High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe Conference – Brussels, 26 th January 2017
Innovation Leadership Skills for the High-Tech Economy -
Demand, Supply and Forecasting
Tobias Hüsing, empirica Eriona Dashja, empirica
High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe Conference – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Contents
• e-Skills forecast: IT Professionals
• e-Leadership definition
• Quantification
• e-Leadership forecast
• Conclusions
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Latest Forecast, Dec. 2015
7,900,000
8,049,000
8,239,000
8,444,000
8,641,000
8,812,000
8,964,000
7,535,000
7,676,000
7,767,000
7,868,000
7,973,000
8,090,000
8,209,000
365,000373,000
472,000
576,000
668,000
722,000
756,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Job
s a
nd
de
ma
nd
po
ten
tia
l
EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario
Demand Potential Total
Jobs Total
674,000jobs added
jobs potential
Old Forecast of 2015
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
8,396,000
8,556,000
8,728,000
8,867,000
9,022,000
9,174,000
8,033,000
8,186,000
8,318,000
8,472,000
8,574,000
8,675,000
363,000
370,000
410,000
395,000448,000
500,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
9,000,000
9,500,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Job
s a
nd
de
ma
nd
po
ten
tia
l
EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario
Demand Potential Total
Jobs Total
642,000jobs added
jobs potential
Broad definition (Eurostat) of ICT specialist workforce
New Forecast Scenario, Jan. 2017 Annual averages: • Demand growth 1.8% • 128,000 job creation • 215,000 replacement Why is the gap in 2020 down to 500k? • Supply improvements
+109k jobs = 43% of effect
• Demand effects -137k demand = 54% of effect
• Different definition and other factors -10k gap = 4% of effect European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Supply of IT Skills is growing
Supply forecast has increased, especially on the training (VET) side, education (HE) stagnating
62.000
50.000
63.000 65.000 67.000 72.000
133.000 135.000
122.000 123.000 114.000 115.000 114.000 111.000
103.000 104.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vocational
Tertiary
VET = Vocational Education and Training HE = Higher Education
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
4-year growth averages (2011 to 2015) -
signs of skill polarization
8.3%
3.9%
0.4%
1.7%
-0.1%
7.4%
3.5%
Management, architecture and analysis
Core ICT practitioners - professional level
Other ICT practitioners - professional level
Core ICT practitioners - associate/technician level
Other ICT practitioners - associate/technician level
Mechanics and servicers
Total
e-Skills Forecast - Summary
• Estimated gap narrowing – in part due to better supply
• Polarization: middle skills might get under pressure
• Continuous education and training gain more relevance
• Overall demand keeps growing despite offshoring and automation (growing sophistication and professionalism)
• Labour market over decades met demand through lateral (“outsider”) entries, mending the gap, but still...
• ... a conflict between the growing need for increased IT professionalism and work-around practices is prevailing
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
e-Leadership Definition
© empirica 2016 European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Quantification
• Sectoral: IT-intensity and size of firm determine a certain average number of innovation leaders
Estimation based on the structure of the economy
• Survey based: asking about involvement of workers in successful digital innovation
• Functional: Assigning innovation leadership probabilities to job statistics
9 European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
e-Leaders in Europe: around 600,000
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017 10
155,000
High growth SMEs 140,000
28
,00
0
ICT ICT intensive Low ICT intensity
Smal
l
Me
diu
m
La
rge
12
,00
0
54,000
130,000
75,000
• Analysis of online job postings (Jobfeed database )
• Search algorithm to find ads fitting all the criteria of the e-leadership definition
• DE, UK, FR, NL, AT
• November 2015 snapshot
• Assume 50% publish rate
• Assume EU total ~= 5 countries * 1.5
• 16,500 vacancies for e-leaders – Equals vacancy rate of 2.65%
(compare: total business economy: 1.8%, ICT: 2.9%)
Strategy
Trans-
formation
&
Innovation
Business
Demand: Counting Job Adverts
© empirica 2016
Digital
Leadership &
&
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
600.000 521.000
422.000
16,500
616.500
694.000
805,000
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Demand Forecast for e-Leadership Jobs
Expansion demand since 2016 Replacement demand since 2016 Jobs held by 2016 workforce Demand total
383,000 173,000
Demand Forecast e-Leadership Jobs Scenario Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Supply Scenarios Given Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)
e-leader generation capacity / year
Vacancies 2020
Vacancies 2025
Over-supply 2020
Over-supply 2025
30,000 53,000 112,500 0 0
40,000 13,000 22,500 0 0
42,500 3,000 1,000 0 0
45,000 0 0 5,000 2,000
50,000 0 0 10,000 7,000
60,000 0 0 20,000 17,000
Given 3% demand growth, optimum capacity generates 40,000 to 50,000 e-leaders per year
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Quantification - Summary
• Estimates based on the definition of e-Leadership • No data available from statistical offices • Status quo ~ 600,000 • Open vacancy data, some assumptions applying, as a demand metric • Future demand evolution based on scenarios only • At 3% demand growth, 40k to 50k new e-leaders annually needed
– Graduate figures from executive education (HE and business schools) are far from being even close to this order of magnitude
– Supply emerges mainly trough cross-functional experience, corporate leadership programmes and other on-the-job development.
• Significant scope for improvement of e-leadership talent development strategies, at enterprise as well as at national and EU economy level
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Other Indicators As Proxy
Innovation leadership
pipeline
Innovation leadership skills base
pool
Business structure
Innovation
Technology usage
Innovation leadership
skilling
Innovation leadership policy and stakeholder
Input Throughput Output/Outcome
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
e-Leadership Measurement
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017 16
8,0
6,2
5,9
5,5
5,5
5,5
5,5
5,0
4,7
4,6
4,6
4,6
4,3
4,3
4,1
4,0
4,0
3,8
3,7
3,6
3,5
3,3
3,3
3,2
3,2
3,2
3,2
2,2
4,4
IE UK DK NL FI BE MT AT SE FR DE ES EE PL LU SI HR HU LT PT BG CZ GR IT SK LV CY RO EU
Input & leading indicators - education, graduates and juniors, policy
2016 2015
7,5
7,4
7,2
7,1
7,0
6,8
6,4
6,4
6,1
5,9
5,9
5,8
5,6
5,5
5,1
4,9
4,6
4,4
4,4
4,2
4,1
4,0
4,0
3,9
3,8
3,8
3,4
3,2
5,3
SE NL FI UK LU BE DE IE DK FR AT EE MT SI CZ LV LT HU ES SK CY PT IT PL HR BG RO GR EU
Outcome & lagging indicators - senior professionals & leaders, business & innovation environment
2016 2015
Accomplishment vs. Preparedness Plotting For The Mid-Term Outlook
© empirica 2016
Innovation Leadership Skills Outlook
AT
BE
BG
CY CZ
DE
DK
EE ES
FI
FR
GR
HR HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK
EU
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00
e-L
ead
ers
hip
Pre
par
ed
ne
ss
e-Leadership Accomplishment
At risk of Stagnating
Potential to Leap
Dedicated to Lead
Risk of Complacency
IE PT DE
PL AT LV
ES HU CZ
MT EU SE
DK IT LU
HR LT
GR BE
BG CY
UK SK
FR
FI
EE
SI
RO
NL
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Conclusions
• Unless massive surveys are undertaken, useful to rely on indicator scoreboard as proxy measurement
• Preparedness > accomplishment: best outlook on growing their e-leadership skills maturity. Examples: – Ireland (Strengths: executive education and LLL),
– Malta (Policies and initiatives),
– Denmark (Graduates & junior practitioners, LLL),
– Spain (Executive education),
– Poland (Education programmes, graduates)
• Accomplishment > preparedness: Look out for complacency!
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
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