Inland Transport CO Emissions- Situation and Status in Thailand

Inland Transport CO2 Emissions-

Situation and Status in Thailand

Malee Uabharadorn, PhDOffice of Transport and Traffic Policy and Panning

Ministry of Transport

23 September 2013

UNESCAP Bangkok, Thailand

Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning: OTP, Ministry of Transport, THAILAND

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Thailand NAMA Development

Green Economy with Energy Sector

Fuel Substitution in Transportation

Environmental Sustainable Transportation

Source: Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT)

NAMAs under UNFCCC

(Unilateral NAMAs)

Domestic NAMAs

Internationally

Supported NAMAs

• Two kinds of NAMAs have been defined under UNFCCC:

Domestic means (unilateral NAMAs) and Internationally supported

to cover NAMA costs (supported NAMAs).

• A third option would credit emission reductions and make

them tradable on the carbon market (credited NAMAs), which is

not clear today.


Thailand NAMAs is the Climate Change Policy Management which clarify on Climate Change and National

Development Strategies

NAMAs should be clearly focusing on the

Measured, Reported, and Verified (MRV)


Thailand’s NAMAs is not the new GHFs…..but

� Currently, Thailand has proposed

regulations/standards on energy efficiency and 25% targeted in Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP). These could be NAMAs.

� Feed-in Tariff (FiTs) in Thailand since 2007 is

policy instrument to promote RE, and can be a part of NAMAs.

� Policy-based Instrument will be a part of

Thailand’s NAMAs; ….Carbon Tax Collection


Thailand NAMAs is supporting to build up;1. The private co-investment in low-carbon development.2. To create the new investment on Renewable Energy(RE) and Efficient use of Energy (EE).3. Thailand NAMAs can apply as the multi-sector strategy by importing the Government Policy which includes


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Con cept developm ent

Outpu t : N A M A Concept / N A M A Concept N ote

2. NAMA Implementation Phase

Concept elaboration

3. NAMA Operation Phase

Concept evaluation

Thailand’s NAMAs: Best Practices and ProcessT

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Answer from Ministry of ENERGY only…

CO2 Countermeasures in Thailands NAMAs Estimated budget (M Baht)

Renewable Electricity Generation (DEDE) 224,600a

Energy Efficiency in Buildings and Industries

(DEDE)4,800b

Bio-diesel in the transport sector (DEDE) 890c

Environmental Sustainable Transport (OTP) 990,000d

Sources: aEstimated from subsidy spent on feed-in tariffs (DEDE).

bEstimated from budgets spent on energy efficiency promotion (EPPO).

cEstimated from budgets spent on bio-diesel promotion (DEDE), Excluded R&D.

dReport on Environmental Sustainable Transport (OTP-MOT).

Estimated budgets spent on NAMA actions in the NAMA period (up to 2020)

Thailand NAMAs…where the budget comes from?


NAMA WEB Registry is online in 2013: Voluntary baseVoluntary baseVoluntary baseVoluntary base�Financial matching: develop vs developing countries

�UNFCCC NAMA Registry is voluntary web-based

“match-making” platform for developing countriesto propose NAMAs by seeking International support

� NAMA CO-ordinator and supporting country may request more additional detail documents to

make it’s own understanding on CO2 Emission to

creating more understanding on (NAMA actions

and NAMA MRV) by access to UNFCCC NAMA Registry


� Sept 2012, there were 54 NAMAs in 25 countriesat different stages of development.

�� More than 75% of all NAMAs are “national initiatives”, involving plans (47%), programs (20%), and projects (15%)


UNFCCC NAMA “Pipeline”

•The majority of NAMAs was based in Latin America (46%), Africa (42%), whileonly 12% were located in Asia.

NAMAs by regions


Thailand Sectoral distribution of NAMAs, Oct 2012


Energy,

69.57%

Industrial Process,

7.15%

Agriculture &

Livestock, 22.64%

Forestry, -3.44%Waste Management,

4.07%

Source: Thailand’s Second National Communication, (ONEP, 2011)

Development of Thailand NAMAsThailand CO2 emissions by sectors in 2000

IncludingTransport

1. Renewable Electricity (AEDP25%)

2. Energy Efficiency in Buildings & Industries

3. Bio-fuels for transportation (AEDP25%)

4. Environmental Sustainable Transport


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EE REEnergy conservation Energy RenewableTarget to EE 20 years:

Reduce Energy’s Intensity (EI)of the energy usage

By reduction to 25% within 20 yearsBy the year 2020 must increase Energy Saving

38,200 ktoe

Target to AEDPProportion of renewable energy:

total energy usage to 25% within 10 years

In the form of Electricity, Heat, and Biofuels


Final Energy Consumption (ktoe)

Sectoral Energy Consumption in Thailand in the BAU 2020


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Total CO2 emissions (kt-CO2)

367 Mt

331 MtPDP2007 Forecast: BAU

Recent Forecast in 2013

Note :

PDP = Thailand’s Power Development Plan.

CO2 Emissions in the BAU 2020


RenewableEnergy

Adder price (Baht/kWh)*

20% target(2011 )

25% new target 2012-

2021

1.Biomass 0.3-0.5 3,700 MW 3,630 MW

2.Biogas 0.3-0.5 120 MW 600 MW

3. Waste 2.5-3.5 160 MW 160 MW

4. Wind 3.5-4.5 800 MW 1,200 MW

5. Hydropower 0.8-1.5 324 MW 1,608 MW

6. Solar 6.5 500 MW 2,000 MW

7.Others - - 3 MW

Total Capacity 5,604 MW 9,201 MW

Source : Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) 2012. Department

of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE, 2012).

Premium FiTs for RE electricity generation

in AEDP 25% (2012 updated)

10$/t-CO2

Domestic vs Internationally Supported NAMAsAbatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)


Increasing the percentage renewable energy

Original target New target

9 Million Litres/day

9 Mil liter/dayEthanol Remain as ever

5.97 Million

Litres/day 7.2 Mil liter/dayBiodiesel Increase 1.23Mil liters/day

Targeted support to use B10

25 mil liters/day

3 mil

liters/day

New energy replaces to Diesel

(BHD)

decrease 22 mil liters/day

Currently suitable to the development

of bio-fuels

- 1,200 ton/dayCompress

Biogas (CBG)Increase new target

Encourage CBG to substitute NGV In Transport sector

With total 200 stations ( 6 ton/day)

Adjustment on proper AEDP


NAMAs CO2 Countermeasures CO2 reduction in 2020

(kt-CO2)

RE Power (Low MAC) 2,568Domestic

NAMAs

Sub-total 2.6 Mt-CO2

Internationally

RE Power (High MAC) 13,456supported

NAMAs


Total Domestic and Supported NAMAs 16.0 Mt-CO2

Potential of CO2 Mitigation in 2020

AEDP 2012 - RE power


Potential of CO2 Mitigation in 2020 Large Buildings and Industries


(kt-CO2)

Domestic

NAMAsEE Industries (Low MAC) 4,762

EE Building Codes 5,909


Supported

NAMAsEE Industries (High MAC) 9,743




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(kt-CO2)

Domestic

NAMAsTransport/Ethanol (AEDP) 5,069

Transport/Biodiesel 1st Gen 5,022


Supported

NAMAsTransport/Biodiesel 2nd Gen 14,459



Potential of CO2 mitigation in 2020


Potential of CO2 Mitigation in NAMAsEnvironmental Sustainable Transportation

by OTP

1. Modal shift2. Fuel economy improvement3. Sustainable transport system


(kt-CO2)

Environmental Sustainable

Transport12,000


Total Supported NAMAs 12.0 Mt-CO2

Supported

NAMAs



kt-CO2 % % %Scenario I (High Potential) Scenario II Scenario III

RE Power (MAC) 2,568

EE Industries (MAC & Large) 4,762

Building Codes (Large) 5,909 80% achieved

Domestic Transport/Ethanol 5,069

NAMAs Transport/Biodiesel 1st Gen 5,022

Sub-total (Mt-CO2) 23,330 6.35 6.35 5.08

RE Power (MAC) 13,456

Inter. EE Industries (MAC & Large) 9,743 50% achieved

Supported Transport/Biodiesel 2nd Gen &

CBG for transportation

14,459 50% achieved

NAMAs Environmental Sustainable

Transport (BCDBEGH IDJ)

12,000

Sub-total (Mt-CO2) 49,658 13.51 11.55 8.39

Total Domestic and Supported NAMAs 72,988 19.86 17.90 13.47

Total emissions in 2005 (energy only) 192,724

Total emissions in 2020 (energy only) 367,437

Scenarios of CO2 Mitigation in Thailand NAMAs


Year DoPED* Energy Intensity(toe/1000 USD)

CO2 Intensity (t-CO2/USD)

2005 68.82 0.280 0.696

2020 BAU 69.24 0.274 0.564

2020 NAMA +10.7% -17.9% -18.3%

* DoPED: Diversification of primary energy demand


“Thailand will endeavor to lower CO2 emissions in the range of 7-20% in 2020……..compared to the BAU”

CO2 Counter-measures

• RE: Biomass, biogas, hydro, Solar, Wind,

Waste-to-energy etc.

• EE in Industries, Buildings, Transportation

• Bio-Fuels and alternative energy sources

• Environmental Sustainable Transport System

Thailand’s NAMAs


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Mega Project on Thailand Infrastructure Development

with USD 67 Billion

28.90%17.89% 52.16%

Source: Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning: OTP

Customs 418

Source: OTP

The Infrastructure Development Programs

Encourage energy security by

deloping transport connecting

with the neighboring countries

New urban communities

emerging by using efficiency

energy tith fossil fuel reduction

Source: OTP

Million tons

3rd version of PDP2010

Diesell/Renewal energy

Natural GasImport CoalLigniteNuclear


2.2 e ��)� 2 �� g�$ Country Strategy

Energy Saving from Thailand Transport Infrastructure Development

USD 67 Billion“ h�i�j#k% l'm��)� ��"�i"��n�� ”

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Reduce the LOST

from using the

fossil fuel not less

than 100,000

Million Baht/year

Outcome: Support transport energy efficiency, reduce the import and usage of FOSSIL FUEL

Rural Highways

Motorways

BTS

Railway double track

Mass Rapid Transit

Source: OTP

OTP: Sample on Testing Analysis of Vehicle Emissions

Emissions of pollutants released by Transport sector in 2011,

Based on outputs from the transport models,

National Model (NAM) and Extened Bangkok Urban Model (eBUM)

Emission NAM eBUM

Hydrocarbon (HC) 0.04 0.03

Carbon monoxide (CO) 0.26 0.15

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) 0.24 0.11

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 39.21 18.21

Unit: M tonnes

Remark: Results shown are directly output from Transport Model, These figures have to be further clibrated against the Ministry of Energy’s figure

Inland Transport CO Emissions- Situation and Status in Thailand

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