Ingrid Schoon London, Institute of Education

Ingrid SchoonLondon, Institute of Education

Llakes ConferenceLondon, 5-6th July 2010

Planning for the future: Changing education expectations in three British cohorts

Education Expectationsexpression of personal identity: projecting

oneself into the future (future possible self)reflect subjective assessment of the amount

of education one realistically predicts to attain.

can help to chart a life course, provide direction for spending time and energy during the school years

are one of the strongest predictors of future educational and occupational attainments

(Hanson, 1994; Marini, 1978; Schoon, 2006; Sewell et al., 1970)

Education Expectations in Times of Social ChangeGeneral increase in expectations for further

education The ambitious generation (Schneider &

Stevenson, 1999)

A new norm: Further education for all? (Rosenbaum, 2001)

Possible explanations

Changing social backgrounds Changing parental expectations for their

children Increased gender equalityIncreasing investment in education (school

engagement)

Research QuestionsHow have educational expectations

changed since 1970s?Have gender differences diminished?Has the impact of social background on

school attainment and education expectations decreased in later born cohorts?

Is there a new norm emerging?

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Lives in Context Three British Age Cohorts born in 1958,

1970, 1990:From ‘Golden Age’ to ‘Crisis Decades’ Changing labour marketExpansion of the education systemIncreasing participation of women in the labour

market

→ how does changing social context influence transition behaviour?

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1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2008

1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS): n=17,415

Birth Age 7 Age 11 Age 16 Age 23 Age 33 Age 42 Age 44 Age 50

1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70): n=16,571

Birth Age 5 Age 10 Age 16 Age 26 Age 30 Age 34

Era of liberalisation

Revival of Feminist movement

End of baby boom

Oil crisis

New technologies

Onset of recession Credit Crunch

Collapse of housing market

Second wave of recession

Onset of recovery

LSYPE: n=21,234

Age 13 14 15 16

1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2008

1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS): n=17,5

Birth Age 7 Age 11 Age 16 Age 23 Age 33 Age 42 Age 46 Age 50

1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70): n=16,571

Birth Age 5 Age 10 Age16 Age 26 Age 30 Age 34 Age 38

Era of liberalisation

Revival of Feminist movement

End of baby boom

Oil crisis

New technologies

Onset of recession Credit Crunch

Collapse of housing market

Second wave of recession

Onset of recovery

LSYPE: n=21,234

Age 13 14 15 16 17 18

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Understanding Lives in Context: A Life Course ApproachEmbeddedness of human development in a

changing socio-historical contextDevelopment as life long process: Accumulation

of experiencesSocial change and its influence on timing of

transitionsLinked lives: transgenerational approachIndividual agencyReciprocal interactions between individual and

context

(Bronfenbrenner & Ceci, 1997; Elder, 1998)

Comparative MeasuresSocial Origin:

parental social class, parental educationAcademic attainment in mid childhood

NCDS: math and reading at age 11 BCS70: math and reading at age 10LSYPE: math and reading at age 10 (Key stage 2)

Own Education Aspirations (age 16):Expects further education beyond age 16

School Motivation (age 16)5 item scale (School is boring, I like

homework, ...)Parental Aspirations (age 16)

parents want child to continue education post 169

Educational aspirations of young people

NCDS boys

NCDS girls

BCS boys BCS girls LSYPE boys

LSYPE girls

0102030405060708090

100

% expect to continue education after age 16

Series1

Born 1958 1970 1989/90Age 16 1974 1986 2005/6

Parental educational expectations for their child

NCDS boys

NCDS girls

BCS boys BCS girls LSYPE boys

LSYPE girls

0102030405060708090

100

% expect child to continue education after age 16

Series1

Child Born 1958 1970 1989/90Age 16 1974 1986 2005/6

Parental Expectations that a child will continue full time education after age 16 by gender and parental education.

12

%

born: 1958 1970 1989/1990

Age 16 1974 1986 2005/6

Teenage expectations for further education by gender and parental education.

13

%

born: 1958 1970 1989/1990

Age 16 1974 1986 2005/6

Predicting Education Expectations: Logistic Regression

Controlling for academic attainment at age 10 (math, reading) and school motivation at age 16

Model 1 (Odds Ratio)Cohort (NCDS=base)

BCS70 2.9

LSYPE 33.6

Gender (male = base)

Female 1.2

Mother Education

Father Education

Parental Expectations

R2 (Nagelkerke) .55

Predicting Education Expectations: Logistic Regression

Controlling for academic attainment at age 10 (math, reading) and school motivation at age 16

Model 1 (Odds Ratio)

Model 2 (Odds Ratio)Cohort (NCDS=base)

BCS70 2.9 3.1

LSYPE 33.6 21.6

Gender (male = base)

Female 1.2 1.1

Mother Education 1.3

Father Education 1.4

Parental Expectations 15.4

R2 (Nagelkerke) .55 .70

Pathway model (Schoon, 2010)

Academic Attainment

Parental Education

Education Expectation

School Motivation

Parental expectation

Age 10 Age 16

Covariates: 3 age cohortsNCDS BCS70 LSYPE

Parental Education <-> ACA .57 .54 .58

Parental Expectation <-> Teen Expectation

.80 .84 .64

Parental Expectation <-> School Motivation

.47 .35 .29

School Motivation <-> Teen Expectation

.42 .39 .31

Pathway coefficients: 3 age cohorts

NCDS BCS70 LSYPE

Parental Education -> Teenager’s Expectation

.32 .37 .15

Parental Education -> School Motivation

.14 .11 .05

Parental Education -> Parental Expectation

.38 .39 .18

ACA -> Teenager’s Expectation

.51 .29 .39

ACA -> School Motivation .24 .16 .11

ACA-> Parental Expectation

.43 .30 .37

Findings (1): Social Inequalities Association between social background and

academic attainment remains for all three cohorts

Direct influence of social background on parental and teen expectations has reduced fro the later born cohort

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Gender Differences

Covariates: 3 age cohortsNCDSmen

NCDS women

BCS70men

BCS70 women

LSYPEmen

LSYPE women

Parental Education <-> ACA

.59 .54 .54 .54 .55 .57

Parental Expectation <-> Teen Expectation

.83 .78 .83 .84 .66 .58

Parental Expectation <-> School Motivation

.44 .38 .41 .32 .32 .29

School Motivation <-> Teen Expectation

.47 .46 .44 .35 .32 .34

Pathway coefficients: 3 age cohortsNCDSmen

NCDS women

BCS70men

BCS70 women

LSYPEmen

LSYPE women

Parental Education -> Parental Expectation

.39 .38 .35 .45 .16 .06

Parental Education -> School Motivation

.11 .17 .17 .08 .02 .02

Parental Education -> Teen Expectation

.31 .33 .32 .42 .08 .11

ACA-> Parental Expectation

.45 .42 .40 .20 .34 .38

ACA -> School Motivation

.26 .23 .13 .19 .15 .16

ACA -> Teen Expectation

.54 .47 .36 .23 .39 .32

Findings Dramatic increase in education

expectations among teens and their parents Massive cohort effectGirls more ambitious than boys Parents have higher expectations for their

daughters Role of parental education and previous

academic attainment has reduced for the later born cohort, suggesting emergence of a new norm

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ConclusionChanging norms and expectations: further

education for allReversal of gender stratificationHigh expectations may mask lack of

motivation and academic capabilityRaising expectations is not enough:

Need for guidance and information about how to realise one’s ambition

Parents have to carry financial responsibility

Danger of increasing marginalisation of disadvantaged young people, especially men

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ReferenceSchoon, I. (2010). Planning for the future.

Changing education expectations in three British cohorts. Historical Social Research, 35(2): 99-119

Thank you

[email protected]

Thank You

[email protected]

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