The Future of Airport Capacity in the UK CRITICAL THINKING AT THE CRITICAL TIME™ FTI Consulting LLP • 1 “At 344 pages in length, the report examines multiple facets of government policy and offers numerous recommendations as to the future of this key driver of economic growth but its findings are likely to be summarised in just two words: “Heathrow expansion” The independent Airports Commission has today (Wednesday 1 July) published its long-awaited report into the future of aviation capacity in the United Kingdom. At 344 pages in length, the report examines multiple facets of government policy and offers numerous recommendations as to the future of this key driver of economic growth but its findings are likely to be summarised in just two words: “Heathrow expansion”. Upon examination of three proposals for boosting air capacity – a second runway at Gatwick, an extended northern runway at Heathrow and a new third runway to the North West of Heathrow Airport – the Commission unanimously selected the latter option as offering “the greatest strategic and economic benefits – providing around 40 new destinations from the airport and more than 70,000 new jobs by 2050.” The extension of the existing northern runway was ruled out on the grounds of failing to match either the economic or capacity benefits provided by a new, third runway. The Commission were keen to stress that the recommendation in respect of a new, North Western runway were different to those proposed in the past. With the site being located further to the west than previous proposals, the Commission hoped to mitigate some of the fears that exist about the impact of excessive noise and pollution upon West London and the Home Counties. A ban would continue to be maintained on flights between 23:30 and 06:00, with a further recommendation that the government rule out any further expansion of the site to include a fourth runway. Further recommendations were made in respect of the need for roughly £5 billion in road and rail upgrades to the airport in order to provide greater ease of access to the airport and mitigate challenges regarding excessive traffic in West London. INFRASTRUCTURE SNAPSHOT The Future of Airport Capacity in the UK
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The Future of Airport Capacity in the UK
CRITICAL THINKING AT THE CRITICAL TIME™ FTI Consulting LLP • 1
“At 344 pages in length, the report examines multiple facets of government policy and offers numerous recommendations as to the future of this key driver of economic growth but its findings are likely to be summarised in just two words: “Heathrow expansion”
The independent Airports Commission has today (Wednesday 1 July) published its long-awaited
report into the future of aviation capacity in the United Kingdom.
At 344 pages in length, the report examines multiple facets of government policy
and offers numerous recommendations as to the future of this key driver of
economic growth but its findings are likely to be summarised in just two words:
“Heathrow expansion”.
Upon examination of three proposals for boosting air capacity – a second runway
at Gatwick, an extended northern runway at Heathrow and a new third runway to
the North West of Heathrow Airport – the Commission unanimously selected the
latter option as offering “the greatest strategic and economic benefits – providing
around 40 new destinations from the airport and more than 70,000 new jobs by
2050.”
The extension of the existing northern runway was ruled out on the grounds of
failing to match either the economic or capacity benefits provided by a new, third
runway.
The Commission were keen to stress that the recommendation in respect of a
new, North Western runway were different to those proposed in the past. With the site being located further to the west than previous
proposals, the Commission hoped to mitigate some of the fears that exist about the impact of excessive noise and pollution upon West
London and the Home Counties. A ban would continue to be maintained on flights between 23:30 and 06:00, with a further
recommendation that the government rule out any further expansion of the site to include a fourth runway. Further recommendations
were made in respect of the need for roughly £5 billion in road and rail upgrades to the airport in order to provide greater ease of
access to the airport and mitigate challenges regarding excessive traffic in West London.
INFRASTRUCTURE SNAPSHOT
The Future of Airport Capacity in the UK
The Future of Airport Capacity in the UK
CRITICAL THINKING AT THE CRITICAL TIME™ FTI Consulting LLP • 2
Business backing
A survey published last year by the Institute of Directors (IoD)
showed that only 3% of business leaders believed the UK’s
current airport infrastructure was sufficient to ensure the UK’s
long-term economic growth. 61% of IoD members favoured
Heathrow expansion, compared to 39% who chose Gatwick.
As such, the Commission’s findings have been met with an
enthusiastic response from the business community.
IoD Director General General Simon Walker has said the
government should “move quickly” on the issue and that
“there can now be no further delay from politicians” on the
matter. The British Chamber of Commerce’s Director General
John Longworth has called for an “irreversible government
commitment to a new runway at Heathrow by the end of 2015,
with planning complete and diggers on the ground by the end
of this parliament in 2020”.
A glimmer of hope for Gatwick?
While much of the attention on the report will be focussed
upon the recommendation to press ahead with a new runway
at Heathrow, it is important to note that the report did not seek
to rule out or discourage expansion at Gatwick either.
The airport’s proposal was praised by the Commission from
the perspective of boosting capacity for short-haul European
flights yet was seem as failing to deliver on the objective of
boosting London’s connectedness to rapidly-growing markets
in Asia.
Gatwick's Chief Executive, Stewart Wingate described the
airport as still being “very much in the race” and sought to
draw attention to the “very significant environmental
challenges at Heathrow such as air quality and noise impact”.
The end of “Boris Island”
Arguably the most prominent opponent of Heathrow expansion
in recent years has been the Mayor of London Boris Johnson.
Supported by his Deputy Mayor Kit Malthouse (now the
Member of Parliament for North West Hampshire), he has
instead supported a proposal for the construction a new
airport in the North Kent Thames Estuary.
While the Mayor and his advisors claim the new airport would
provide a significant boost for job creation and allow for the
gradual shifting of flights away from the densely-populated
West London area, financial and planning considerations
mean the plan has never received particularly serious
consideration at the heart of government.
Even with the “Boris Island” airport proposal now dead in the
water, the Mayor is unlikely to back down from his opposition
to Heathrow expansion. In comments issued from City Hall
this morning, he described the suggestion as “catastrophic”.
He can be expected to use his new position as Member of
Parliament for Uxbridge and South Ruislip to oppose
expansion on the floor of the House of Commons, as well as
from City Hall.
For those in the press who have been desperately looking for a
“wedge issue” between the Prime Minister, Chancellor and
Mayor, this may well be it.
Cabinet tensions
Boris Johnson is not the only senior figure to oppose Heathrow
expansion.
Indeed, it is likely that the issue will cause ructions around the
cabinet table with the International Development Secretary
Justine Greening and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond both
staunchly opposing the plan. In the case of Greening, her
departure as Transport Secretary in September 2012 was
partly linked to her staunch views on the issue; no doubt
influenced by pressure from constituents in her affluent, West
London constituency of Putney.
London Mayoral race: threat or opportunity for
the Tories?
The debate about the future of Heathrow Airport has long been
a controversial one – particularly amongst Conservatives –
and will have wide-ranging implications for the party’s mayoral
primary.
During his campaign to be elected as Member of Parliament
for Richmond Park in 2010, the now-frontrunner for the party’s
2016 Mayoral nomination Zac Goldsmith pledged to resign his
seat and force a by-election in the eventuality that the party