Informing policy development for sustainable and productive food production systems in dry areas. Kamel Shideed

Informing Policy Development for Sustainable and Productive Food Production Systems in

Dry Areas

5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture and 3rd Farming Systems Design Conference

26-29 September 2011, Brisbane- AustraliaK. Shideed, ICARDA

Outline of the Presentation

Context of global food production

Status of water availability and on-farm WUE in Dry Areas

Pathways and interventions to improve efficiency in Dry Areas

Informing policy development

Policy and research implications

Global Food Security Challenges

In light of the growing impacts of climate change, there is a need to produce 70-100 % more food to meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices (FAO)

More than 1 Billion people suffer from food insecurity and malnutrition (IAASTD, 2009)

These challenges are amplified by increased purchasing power and shifts in consumers’ preferences in many

countries Barriers to food access and distribution, particularly in poorest countries NR degradation Climate change Expensive energy

Despite recent innovations and technological advances, this combination of drivers poses complex challenges for global agriculture to ensure food security

Dry areas face the alarming NR limitations and degradations, particularly water scarcity.

The goal of agricultural sector is NOT only to maximize productivity, but to optimize it in terms of production, rural development, environmental and social outcomes.

Relationship between Food Production and Poverty

Source: FAO. 2o11. Save and Grow. FAO, Rome

Growth in cereal yields and lower cereal prices significantly reduced food insecurity

Proportion of undernourished population declined from 26% to 14% between 1967-71 and 2000-2002

Crop Production: Area Expansion and Yield Growth

Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland. K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC

70% of the increase in crop production between 1961 and 2005 was due to yield increase

23% to the expansion of arable land

8% to crop intensification

Area growth dominated in Sub-Saharan Africa

World Grain Balance (Consumption Exceeds Production)

Source: USDA

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mill

ion

Tons

Production Consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Ave

rage

ann

ual g

row

th r

ate

(%)

maize

rice

wheat

Source: World Development Report 2008.

Productivity Growth is Declining

Cereal Productivity: Net Food Importing Countries Lag Behind World Averages

Source: Adapted from FAO, 2008b.

9

Since the mid-1970s, CGIAR funding levels have stagnated

In $

mil

lio

ns

Causes of Declining Productivity Growth: Decreased Investment in Agricultural R-4-D

Status of water availability and on-farm WUE in Dry Areas

Natural Scarcity of Water in Dry Areas

1.1

2.7

5.4

5.6

8

13

20.3

34.5

35

0 10 20 30 40

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Western Europe

East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe & Central Asia

North America

Latin America & Caribbean

Australia/New Zealand

Reg

ion

ARWR per capita (1000m3/yr)

Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita

Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)

1.4

2.2

3.2

6.2

8

9.4

10.3

25.1

72.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Latin America & Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

Australia/New Zealand

Europe & Central Asia

North America

East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)

Western Europe

South Asia

Middle East & North Africa

Reg

ion

Percent

Percent of total renewable waterresources withdrawn

Most countries in dry areas are facing increasing water scarcity

MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region

Highest water withdrawn in dry areas

Future projections of population growth suggest further decrease in per capita water availability in dry areas (from 1100 m3/yr to 550 m3/yr in 2050)

Increased competition on water More research investment for

efficient, sustainable , and equitable water use

Water Poverty Index (WPI) and HDI for non-tropical dry-area countries

Access to water and food in developingcountries and countries in transition

Implications of Water Scarcity on Human Poverty and Access to Food

Water poverty contributes greatly to the low HDI (human poverty) of poor countries in dry areas

Direct relationship between access to water and access to food and feed security

Irrigation accounts for 80-90% of all water used in dry areas

Increasing competition on water is expected to reduce agriculture share to 50% by 2050

Relationship between Food Security and WPI in Dry Areas

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WPI FoodSI,x100

Water Poverty Explains 43% of the Food In-Security

Status of On-farm WUE

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70

90

Rabi

a Radwan

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Al Ghor

Beni s

weif

Nubaria

Ninav

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Far

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WU

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Factors Affecting Water Allocation Decisions Are

Own-crop price and acreage Cross-crop prices and acreages Irrigation technology Crop choice Farmers’ perceptions on crop water requirements Amount of rainfall Socio-economic characteristics

Wheat FWUE in Selected Areas in WANA

Fixed, allocate-able input model

Variable input model Behavioral model

FWUE = the ratio of the required amount of water for a target production level to the actual amount of water used.

FWUE = 1 perfect efficiency

> 1 under -irrigation

< 1 over -irrigation

Main Results of On-farm WUE and their Implications

A wide gap between required and actual water application, implying high potential for saving water (e.g., 40-60% in wheat production).

Producers perceive water as a fixed input in the short run, but allocatable among competing crops on the farm

Crop choice, crop prices, planted areas, irrigation technology appear to be strong determinants of water allocation in the short run among competing crops.

Water prices, since they were highly subsidized, did not

have a major quantitative impact on water allocation.

Pathways and Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas

Pathways to Improve Efficiency

Source: Carberry, P., et al., 2010 and Keating et al., 2010.

3 pathways Remove system

inefficiencies (B to D) Invest in

breakthrough technologies that increase the efficiency of resource use while reducing risk (D to C)

Invest in breakthrough technologies that offer greater return for the same level of risk (D to F)

Options to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas

5 Interventions (among others) Closing the yield gap

Investing in technology development and promotion (e.g., CA)

Sustainable intensification of production systems

Investing in water saving technologies Investing in agricultural R-4-D

Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 1. Closing the Yield Gap

Identifying Potential Gains (Wheat in Syria)

Large gap between potential and actual yields

The need to better understand causes for yield gaps

Opportunities for increasing food production

Potential Land Availability vs. Potential for Increasing

Yields

Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland. K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC

Type 1: Little land for expansion, low yield gap

Type 2: Suitable land available, low yield gap

Type 3: Little land available, high yield gap

Type 4: Suitable land available, high yield gap

Adoption of Conservation Agriculture in WA:

CA is spreading rapidly in WA.

Adoption has grown from near-zero to more than 27,000 ha in four years

Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas:

2. Conservation Agriculture

Driving Forces for Adoption

• Soil-moisture conservation, thus improving WUE & reducing the likelihood of crop failure

• Cost savings (fuel, labor, seeds)

• Better understanding of the impact pathway

• Effectively linking R to D (PP partnership)

• Active participation of farmers

• Enabling policy environmentAusAID/ACIAR supported project on conservation agriculture in Iraq and Syria

Integrated agricultural production systems for the poor and vulnerable in dry areas (CRP1.1):

Two main target systems:

o Most vulnerable systems

o Systems with the greatest potential for impact

Objectives:

Sustainable productivity growth and intensified production systems at the farm and landscape levels

More resilient dryland agro-ecosystems that can cope with climate variation and change

Less vulnerable and improved rural livelihoods

Agricultural innovation systems that improve the impact of research and development investments

Five Dryland Regions: West Africa Sahel and dry savannas, East and Southern Africa, WANA, Central Asia, South Asia

Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 3. Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems

Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas:

4. Water Saving Technologies (SI)

Curve water and yield(wheat z1 )

y = -0.00061x2 + 2.89495x + 3321.20559

R2 = 0.73139y = -0.00037x2 + 2.16536x + 3037.50960

R2 = 0.629880

10002000300040005000600070008000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Water (m3/ha)

yield

(KG/Ha

)

sprinkler zone 1 surface zone 1 Poly. (sprinkler zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1)

Poly. (surface zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1)

With Improved SI Technology: • Produce more

food under the same level of water applied

• Prevent the excessive use of water

Estimates of TE, IE and cost efficiency under SI, wheat farms in Syria- 2010

Irrigation methodz

N Technical efficiency (%)

Irrigation water efficiency (%)

Irrigation water technical cost efficiency (%)

Surface 186 70 66 89

Improved 142 89 75 91

Total Farms 328 78 69.9 89.9

Potential to increase wheat yield by 22% Potential to reduce the amount of water use by 30% potential to reduce total cost of production by 10% Even among farmers using improved technology (sprinklers), there still 25%

gap in irrigation water efficiency that need to be closed

Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas: 5. Investing in Agricultural R-4-D

R-4-D improves food security through sustainable productivity growth

R-4-D gives high returns to investment (65%)

However, R-4-D has experienced significant under investment (e.g., CGIAR)

Importance of science and technological innovation to: Meet growing demand for food Maintain market competitiveness Address poverty Adapt to and mitigate cc

Role of Science and Technology in Sustainable Food Production Systems

Source: Austin (2010)

Science is essential but not sufficient to ensure productivity growth and food security

Importance of Socioeconomic and environmental factors

Informing Policy Development

Informing Policy Development

Significant challenges to developing policies that support the development of more sustainable land use and efficient production systems (Pretty, et al, 2010)

The complexity and often lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers

Political- economy factors can be crucial, particularly for management of NR

Providing policy makers with new research information is necessary, but not sufficient to foster adoption of recommendations by politicians

There is a need to seek improved dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy

There is a need to ensure that policy decisions are informed by scientific

knowledge and priorities.

It is, also, important that research should be focusing on priorities that influence current and future policy frameworks and be relevant to the needs and priorities of farmers

Adoption paths with Policy-oriented Research

Alternative adoption paths due to research

Without policy, adoption would have accelerated slowly.

Adoption faster and reached higher ceiling level under policy

Policies to Encourage Adoption of Water Saving Technologies: Water User Charges

Despite the benefits of ISI, the TSI is still practiced by many farmers (78% of wheat farmers) with an average irrigation water application rate of 2600m3/ha.

What can the government do to encourage adoption? One option is to introduce “Water User Charges”

Impact of Water User Charge on Water Use and the Adoption of ISI (wheat in Syria)

User Charge ($/m3)*

Profit Maximizing Application Rate (m3/ha)

Actual Use by Farmers (m3/ha)

0 2375 2686

0.11 2075 (sprinklers)

Water demand elasticity = - 0.16

0.20 (82% increase)

1800 (13% decrease)

* User charge is charging a specific level of “water user charge” for every cubic meter applied in excess of the recommended application level of 1800 m3/ha

Promotes the conservation of scarce groundwater

Substantial increases in water charges to make farmers apply the recommended level of water (demand is highly inelastic)

Importance of extension to reduce the actual water use to its profit maximizing level

Economic of Improved Technology (Shift from TSI to ISI)

Item TSI +surface canal

TSI +sprinklers ISI + sprinkler

MP (kg/m3) 0.36 0.69 1.39

Yield (kg/ha) 4387 4829 4555

Adoption rate (%)

55 23 22

Irrigation water application (m3/ha)

2600 1870 1480

Additional profit ($/ha/yr)

162.0 235.5

Huge reduction in the amount of water applied, Big saving in the amount of diesel, total 49.8 B liters per year, value =$20M/yr

Policy and Research Implications

Policy and Research Implications

Future agriculture should increase output and efficiency of resources use

Huge potential of technological innovation to improve food security

The need for supportive policies and institutions to enhance the adoption

The challenge is to inform the development of

enabling policies

Policy and Research Implications- continued

Importance of land tenure in the adoption of soil-conserving and NRM technologies (the need for secured land tenure)

Investments in dry areas generate not only economic benefits, but important environmental and social gains

Policies create most of the conditions that lead to greater resource-use efficiency

Well designed, and implemented policies are the key to efficient use of scarce resources, growth in farm income and protection of the environment

Key policy messages:

Enabling policies to enhance the uptake and adoption of improved technologies (e.g., CA, water saving technologies)

Water valuation and pricing above a specific level of water use (water user charges)

Supporting R-4-D and Extension Increased investment in agriculture, particularly dry areas

Putting-it-all Together

Closing the yield gap and achieving sustainable productivity growth involves not just transferring known technologies and practices to farmers, but

“Putting in place the institutional (and Policy) structure—especially well-functioning input and output markets, access to finance, and ways to manage risk—that farmers need to adopt the technology” (Keating et al., 2010)

The President of India (left) wants research partnerships to be expanded.

Rainfed agriculture – ICARDA’s core expertise – accounts for 40% of farmland in India.

“Dryland farming is of great importance for global food security as well as for a second Green Revolution in India”

--- H.E the President of India, Smt. Pratibha Patil

Perspectives of Policy Makers/World Leaders for Dry Areas

Thank You for Your Attention

Water resources are misused and are not managed sustainably, thus contributing to scarcity

CWANA Ranking according to WPI - Selected Countries

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Water Poverty in Dry Areas

Potential Availability of Uncultivated Land in Different

Regions

Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland. K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC

More than half of land potentially available for expansion of cultivated area is located in ten countries, of which five are in Africa

Concluding Remarks

Next Revolution in Food Production: Bridges yield gap & develops breakthrough innovations (technologies)

Removes inefficiencies in production and resources use

Targets sustainable productivity growth

“Knowledge- intensive” NOT “input/resource intensive”

Addresses food and nutritional security

Goes beyond cereals and diversify to include high-value crops

Deals with sustainability and environment

Based on intensification and integrated system approach (agro-ecology, agro-forestry, and conservation agriculture)

Requires enabling policy, institution and market environments

Addresses social inequalities

Main Elements of Sustainable Food Security

What involves? 4Es Efficiency Environment Equity Enabling policy and market environments

How? R-4-D & E Partnerships Increased investments in agriculture Conductive policies for efficiency gains Risk management systems Connectivity (knowledge and markets) Capacity development

Informing Policy development

Food security concerns led to policy debate Current ag. Policies in developing

countries are inadequate, and ineffective in protecting the fragile NR base

Land degradation and water scarcity are occurring rapidly, in both dryland and irrigated systems

It is hard to protect and conserve communal owned NR (rangeland & water)

The need to inform policy development through “conceptual influence”

Food Price Inflation and Volatility:A Wake-up Call for Leaders and Institutions

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-1130

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Agricultural Price In...

Price Index, July 2008 = 100 (Prices through to end January 2011)

Agricultural Price Index

Grain Price Index

Links between Rainfall and GDP Growth (Ethiopia)

Source: The World Bank. 2009. Making Development Climate Resilient. Report N0. 46947-AFR

Agriculture is most vulnerable sector

There is close association between GDP growth and rainfall (in Ethiopia)

Indicates the importance of rainfed farming and high dependence on agriculture