Informed Cities Forum 2011 Shared intelligece for the Urban Century Joe Ravetz

The informed city & the intelligent city –applying foresight for creative action

27 October 2011

Joe Ravetz

Centre for Urban & Regional EcologyUniversity of ManchesterUniversity of Manchester

www.manchester.ac.uk/cure

Contents

1. What is a city ?

What is urban?

2. From information to

knowledge to

intelligence

Actually I’m not

sure who is best

suited to our kind

of problem

intelligence

3. Application – urban

climate intelligence

4. Putting it together

5. Examples from

cities

6. Conclusions & way

forward

1. What is a city?

What is ‘urban’?

What is ‘urban’?

Metro-scape - peri-urban –edge city – rural-urban region...

Global network of hubs, clusters, gateways

What is ‘urban’?Community of

specialised urban typesContinuous cycles of growth

& decline

Wow so this is what really goes on – gamblers are playing cards or Monopoly with the

whole city

The stakes are high –you can double your money, but the next minute you can lose everything - houses, factories, offices, whole cities … all laid

to waste

What is urban? Multiple games

And look at those poor people –

scraping together their last few coins to hand over to the

gambler man

to waste

Actually I don’t think they’re very happy about that…. they have to go

hungry just so that the game can go on.

To play the REAL city game ... we need a Monopoly board with more layers... Firstly, the global circuit – elite investors fly in, place their bets, take the rewards, and run

Then there’s what

And for many the city is a

place of security in buildings –they don’t move around so much

But what really counts is the

‘moral economy’ –

What is urban? Multiple systems

Then there’s what cities are supposed to do, in the circle of production & consumption –making stuff and

selling it

‘moral economy’ –family, community, sense of doing the

right thing

Meanwhile the town hall tries to togovernance - fix things and manage

health & education, but

Lastly don’t forget that cities exist in a global

ecology - at the moment not very

happily

• many systems combine into an “urban” system.

• Each has different drivers, actors, factors, etc.

• Each can be supportive or destructive of other systems.

• Many inter-connections – but

Global-local financial

system

Urban fixed capital

& infrastructureUrban production

– consumption

What is urban? Multiple systems

• Many inter-connections – but much division & fragmenting

• sustainable development -different systems working together in synergy.

• E.g... social cohesion + inward investment + strong governance + ecological improvement =

• Needs creative action, shared intelligence

& infrastructure

Urban social-

cultural system

Global-local

ecology system

Urban governance

& services system

– consumption

system

2. Information, knowledge,

intelligence, synergicity

From information to intelligence

experience in sustainable cities since Rio 1992

L.A. 21 ???Urban foresight???

Intelligence Intelligence

Intelligence

Is this a real debate or just a game which is played??

foresight???

POLICY & STRATEGY

INDICATORS

MONITORING

Knowledge

Information

Data

Knowledge

Intelligence

Are the policies connected to economic / political powers?

Are the indicators showing real progress – & can we define this?

Are we only measuring what is easy to measure?

Deliberation

“Intelligent adaptive system”

Intelligence Intelligence

Intelligence

“Intelligent city”



From information to intelligence

experience in sustainable cities since Rio 1992

“synergy city”

Deliberation

Learning

Gathering

Processing

system”

“Complex adaptive system”

“Complex system”

“technical system”

Knowledge

Information

Data

Knowledge

Intelligence

“Know”

“Information city”

“Monitored city”

city”

“Knowledge city”

Connected thinking

Firstly we need to think in a more connected way. Linear thinking is ok for problems with clear solutions… like, how to

build a road from A to B.

So tell me … what’s this ‘Synergy-city’ thing

about?

( LINEAR THINKING = “THE ANSWER” )

So what’s wrong with that?

A >>>>>> B

For more complex & controversial issues you need a more ‘relational’ kind of

thinking – more about the ‘synergy’. So you ask - why do we need more roads - what kind of city do we want – how do people

think & feel?

Connected thinking

Well … either you start from a pre-made theory & filter out reality to fit… or you start from reality, & adjust the

theory to suit.

…but isn’t that really difficult –too many things are connected to other things? Where do you

start?

theory to suit.

Hmm … so can you use this to design real cities?

Of course… to start you build the shared intelligence ... Then

the whole community is the designer & policy-maker, creatively turning problems to opportunities…

Urban foresight – a way forward?

Foresight can be

seen as a cycle of

about 3 stages -


But in the urban

case, these are

often pulling in

different directions

Research Stakeholder & capacity Research

& future studies agenda

Strategic planning & management agenda

& capacity building agenda


• Why is the 'urban‘ foresight /

future studies different to

other foresights?

• E.g.... energy / emissions

studies are focused on

• Urban systems –

fragmented, incoherent,

controlled by external forces

• Urban governance – gap

between political & other studies are focused on

technical factors (based on

physics / engineering):

• But - urban is not only

technical systems (landuse,

buildings, etc), - but

relationships (work-home,

community / household, local

/ global, etc).

between political & other

boundaries

• Urban policy – often lacking

the resources & levers of

control:

• Context – austerity,

unemployment, social

exclusion & disorder, geo-

political insecurity

Multiple questions &

relational system levels

Discourse / worldviews /

values

Factors / themes

Multiple interactions &

relational thinking

Urban foresight with mapping of relational systems

Synergicity –emergence &

co-evolution of creative action,

strategic thinking, shared

intelligence“Why”

“what”

Emotional / community / Social

themes

Actors / stakeholders

Sectors / places / policies

‘Vectors’ / processes / interactions

Factors / technology /

regime

“what”

“who”

“where”

“how”

“which”

Material / exchange / enterprise

Functional / technological

power & institutions

Life-support / species relations

Technical

Economic

Ecological

Political

3. Application – urban climate

change agenda

Boundaries & horizons Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of

displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political)

CITY

CITY-REGION

REGION

Example – urban climate policy - overview

“Eco-intelligent city”

“urban climate transition”

“urban climate policy”

SYNERGY

FORESIGHT

PROCESS

Key systems in urban climate issues

External outputs / impacts

Shorter term - cost /

security / disruption

Longer term: - energy

supply / climate

impacts / market shifts

Structural pressure:

obsolescence of urban

form & function

External drivers / pressures / inputs

Shorter term: climate

robustness / resilience

Structural shifts: re-

thinking of urban activity,

form & function

Longer term: re-

engineering of buildings

& infrastructure

Technical

Economy

Governance

Socio-cultur

Example – urban climate policy – overview 2

Environmt

Economy

Environmt

Economy

Governance

Em

er

ge

nt

FORESIGHTPROCESS

Environmt

Economy

Governance

Socio-cultur

Governance

Socio-cultur

Governance

Socio-cultur

SUPPORT SYSTEMS - METHODS & TOOLS

SYNERGY -INTELLIGENCE

MAPPING OF PROBLEMS

Renewable resources, local &

regionalBio-mass &

bio-fuel

Global atmosphere with carbon storage and climate balance

Fossil fuel extraction industry – national / global

Carbon

Technical-environment mappingMapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of


Fossil fuel reserves

Energy conversion &

power distribution

Urban buildings &

infrastructure as carbon sink

bio-fuel energy

Carbon embedded in goods & products

Carbon stored / embedded in

waste to landfill or

Carbon emissions

responsibility via energy demand

Carbon net trade balance of imports /

exports

Carbon sequestration in soil & biomass

CITY

CITY-REGION

REGION

Renewable resources as

multi-functional landuse

Bio-mass & bio-fuel

Global atmosphere as common asset &

insurance

Technical-environment intelligence

Looking for synergy in technical pathways, multi-function actions, shared resources , industrial symbiosis, integrated production-consumption chains

Fossil fuel reserves as conversion

strategy

Zero CO2 closed loop

systems

Building renewal & renovation as CO2

management

landusebio-fuel energy

Industrial symbiosis & closed loop

design

Strategic carbon storage resource

Carbon emissions

responsibility via energy demand

Carbon net trade balance of imports /

exportsCITY

CITY-REGION

REGION

Government Energy / trans

services

Social technology enables networks, initiatives, debates, wikipedia type info

Mortgage holders & investors monitor carbon flows &

trades on financial basis

City / region authorities monitor

carbon flows, investment & urban management on an

area basis

ESCO management & investment programmes with real time energy /

carbon analysis

BASELINE & BENCHMARKING

DECISION SUPPORT

MANAGEMENT & TRADING

Up

str

eam

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Do

wn

str

eam

Technical-environment information system

services

Design & construction

Buildings & stock

Finance & markets

Social enterprise

Utilities & infrastructure

Householders & consumers

‘Carbon intelligence’

Householders keep online climate activity profile. Climate bonus points can be traded.

Buildings, stocks & types with online climate profile,

georeferenced & searchable

Online library of building types, ages, conditions,

energy technology opportunities

Real-time metering & load management

enables smart infrastructure with

intermittent sources.

Up

str

eam

Infr

astr

uctu

r

Do

wn

str

eam

Carbon intelligence

Governance & political ecology mapping

Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of


‘developed’ urban

conflict with global commons

‘developed’ urban

conflict

Local conflicts in resource providers

Local conflicts in hinterland

Local conflicts in extended

urban area

Local conflicts

inner urban areas

conflict with under-developed resource providers

Urban-inter-urban

conflicts

Urban / inter-

regional conflicts

Governance & political ecology intelligence

Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of


Policy:

hierarchical &

technocratic:

within defined

Policy: responsive

& inter-connected:

multi-level & multi-

functional

From -“ORGANIZED

GOVERNMENT”

To - “SELF-ORGANIZING

GOVERNANCE”

within defined

units & sectors

Public:

fragmented &

passive recipients

functional

Regulation system: 1-

way information flow:

(with occasional

election feedback)

Public: pro-active,

entrepreneurial,

resilient & self-

organized

Governance

system - co-

production of

shared intelligence

Social & community

Public services

Government

Civic sector

Design & technology

Inefficient &

bureaucratic

Chasing money &

prestige

Fragmented & self-

interested

Fragmented &

under-skilled

Institutional relationships

Economic relationships

Social / cult relationships

Economy stakeholder mapping

Impotent & short

termist

Finance sector

Utilities

Primary resources

Producers

Construction

Inter-mediaries

Households

community technology

Old business model

based on extract &

dump

Materialistic &

short termist

Privatized firms

maximizing share

value Inefficient & backward

loookingInterested in profit not

quality

Short termist &

profit seeking

Social & community

Public services

Government

Civic sector

Design & technology

Public procurement to kickstart markets & build critical mass

Innovative financial mechanisms to enable

micro-finance etc

Municipal green bonds provide low cost capital upfront, offset by surcharge on local taxes:

extended CERT

ESCOs & securitization /

investment schemes for forward investment

Social agencies manage effects on social housing & neighbourhood

Institutional relationships

Economic relationships

Social / cultural relationships

Economy stakeholder intelligence

Finance sector

Utilities

Primary resources

Producers

Construction

Inter-mediaries

Households

community technology

Sustainable resource management programme for all building materials &

supply chains

neighbourhood facilities

Households opt-in to the improvement

scheme with guarantees on reduction of net

expenditure. Utilities act as inter-mediaries & ‘deem’ the energy savings as an upfront capital sum

Building contractors join area consortiums, working to efficiency performance

standards

Efficiency equipment manufacturers gain from innovation programme &

economies of scale

Upstream ETS auction revenues used to capitalize the re-engineering

programme

Huh.. believe that, you believe

anything. They’re just trying to scare

us

Have you heard this one? they’re telling us we’ve got 100 months to save the planet

Socio-cultural – discourse

Huh.. believe that, you believe anything. The scientists are just trying to scare us so they get more

funding

Have you heard this one? they’re telling us we’ve got 100 months to save the planet


But what if the scientists are right and the arctic ice is melting and the

deserts are advancing, and...and..

So – we’ve got the technology,... when the price is right we’ll use

it.

Well I’m not about to change my lifestyle – I’ve

worked hard for all this and I’m not going to hand it over to some green-bugged hair-shirted eco-

But what if the climate crunch adds up with the credit crunch, food crunch, population

crunch etc... Won’t we all have to change our

lifestyles?


hair-shirted eco-crazy

Well I’m not about to change my lifestyle – I’ve

worked hard for all this and I’m not going to hand it over to some green-bugged hair-shirted eco-

But what if the climate crunch adds up with the credit crunch, food shortages, population, terrorism etc... Won’t we all have to change

our lifestyles?


In fact have you heard of this thing

sus… sus… sustainability??

That’s precisely it!! It’s a global media

conspiracy to keep people like you & me in suspense

& paranoia

hair-shirted eco-crazy

Bureaucracy

gone mad

(“Red Ken”)

“We would all

be better off”

Govt will give

us £3 billion

Good for those

without cars

Pollution &

climate change

“just look at

Barcelona”

Socialism - back

door


Inconvenience

Cost – can’t

afford it

gone mad

“Public trans”

no thanks

“we already

pay our taxes”

“Public trans” should

sort it out

Roads will be

better too

“Public trans”

(for losers)

“Freedom of

the road”

Cost of running

the scheme

Dynamic / action

Strategy

Opportunity

Agenda

Socio-cultural mapping

Abstracted / formal

Embedded / tacit

Static / cognition

Problem

Agenda

Issue System analysis

“Questions”

“Answers”

Foresight for synergicity

Processes -

• Foresight futures strand –

aims to enhance shared

intelligence, shared learning

Results –

• Multi-actor, multi-lateral, multi-

level entrepreneurial action....

e.g. local partnerships, strategic intelligence, shared learning

etc ...

• Foresight capacity strand

– aims to enhance

intellectual capital &

synergy

• Foresight strategy strand

– aims to apply these to

governance & policy (public

/ private / civic.. )

e.g. local partnerships, strategic

networks

• Creative responses to

transitions and building of

resilience & adaptive capacity

• Creative entrepreneurial /

participative mode of

governance with strategic

intelligence.

4. Putting it together

One Planet City Pathways(agendas for institutional economy transformation)

a) Public sector: stewardship procurement pathway: for stability & strategic planning:

b) Financial sector: stakeholder finance

Government

Civic sector

Social enterprise

Science & technology

Public services

Public procure pathway

stakeholder finance pathway: re-engaging capital with communities, employees & environment:

c) Science & technology sector: Innovation / enterprise pathway: opportunity seeking

Households

Infrastructure

Tertiary services

Secondary industry

Primary resources

Overseas

Finance sector

Stakeholder Finance pathway

(Innovation & social

enterprise pathways not

shown)

Innovation pathway

One Planet City Pathways(agendas for institutional economy transformation)

d) Business sector: service chain pathway: advance investment & leasing model along the supply chain:

e) Civic sector: social enterprise pathway:

Government

Civic sector

Social enterprise

Households

Finance sector


Public services

Service

Fair trade pathway

enterprise pathway: mobilizing the energy & commitment of citizens & communities:

f) Development & trade sector: fair trade pathway: engaging with overseas development & global strategy.

s

Infrastructure

Tertiary services

Secondary industry

Primary resources

Overseas

sector

Social enterprise pathway

Service chain

pathway

Local development intelligence

example of local food scheme at www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk

Municipalities Farmers

Landscape

owners &

managers

factors of success:

• Space for creative action & debate

• Public / private / social collaboration & investment

Education &

health

SMEs &

tourism

Local

democracy

NGOs & social

enterprise

Local markets

& investment

• Multi-level self-organizing governance systems

• Knowledge and learning networks

• Innovation & enterprise culture

• Policy intermediation and enabling of inter-mediaries


Landscape

owners &

managers Climate adaptation

strategies

Climate benefits

Local development intelligence

example of local food scheme at www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk

Education &

health

SMEs &

tourism

Local

democracy

NGOs & social

enterprise

Local markets

Local renewable

energy

Climate resilience

through social

cohesion

Reduction in food

chain miles &

processing impacts

Relational view

Discourse / worldviews /

values (‘WHY’)

Factors / themes ‘WHICH’

ICT application of synergy mapping

www.suregen.co.uk

Informational view

Weak links

Strong links & synergy

within a level

New potential

links between

levels

Emergence of

collective intelligence between

levels Specific items on

Social learning environ

ment (SLE) which

builds up links

Actors / networks

/stakeholders (‘WHO’)

Sectors / places

(‘WHERE’)

‘Vectors’ / processes /

opportunities (‘HOW’)

Factors / technology /

regime (‘WHAT’)

items on the

platform

ICT – social-tech templates(i.e. these are templates / apps which customize standard platforms for workbench

applications… )

Factors

(SLE-wiki)

Discourse

(youtube)

Policy themes /

options

Social-tech

platforms

Social-tech

‘templates’

Media template

for urban issues

Social-tech

community

knowledge

“library”

(SLE-wiki)

Actors –

(facebook)

Places

(PPGIS)

Dynamics

(Ebay etc) Social valuations

/ priority choice

GIS policy layers

GIS analytics /

functions

Social forum /

themesSocial forum /

places

Policy best

practices / library

Social auctions /

crowd investment

This is like a combination template,

to be fitted to each type of

organization / role: containing links

to the specific templates. A series of

prototype mockups could be

mounted with dummy links…

Each type of knowledge

level tends to have its

own community…

Factors

Discourse

(youtube)

Case study a) street

home zone

Images /

stories /

media

(external) Coordination

images /

stories /

media (newly

created)

To external

users

Social-tech platforms

Factors

(SLE-wiki)

Actors –

(facebook)

Places

(PPGIS)

Dynamics

(Ebay etc)

Local spatial

analysis –

opports /

constraints

Social forum

on local

needs &

ideas

Policy &

practice

review

Value testing

by virtual

auction /

priority

choice

Spatial

design

options &

limits

Social forum

on options &

priorities

Investment

testing with

financial /

social value

auction

Coordination

with funding /

other policy

levels

created)

Social forum

on events /

meetings /

issues

Social

investment -

sale of

certificates

project go-

ahead

Factors

(SLE-wiki)

Discourse

(youtube)

Case study b) town centre regeneration

(with multiple forums including investors / landlords)

Policy & practice review

Images / stories / media

(external) Coordination with funding / other policy

levels

images / stories /

media (newly created)

To external usersSocial-tech

platforms

Actors –(MULTIPLE)

(facebook)

Places

(PPGIS)

Dynamics

(Ebay etc)

Local spatial analysis –opports /

constraints

Social forum on local

needs & ideas

review

Value testing by virtual auction /

priority choice

Spatial design options &

limits

Social forum on options & priorities

Investment testing with financial /

social value auction

levels

Commercial investment for

common assets

project go-ahead

Investors forum needs

& ideas

Investors forum options & priorities

Investors forum business case

5. Examples

Greater Manchester

• Greater Manchester Policy Exchange was based on a scheme with aims:

• Develop a model Foresight process, around knowledge transfer and mutual learning

• Some short term improvements are possible, depending on resources:

• Policy / research theme analysis report, produced prior transfer and mutual learning

between research & policy

• Provide a platform for research dissemination and policy organizational change

• Pave the way for specific research-policy collaborations in the future

•

analysis report, produced prior to workshop

• Policy / research theme briefing produced after the workshop

• Development of on-line resources, links to researchers & projects, links to teaching programmes etc.

Greater Manchester - themes

• Climate change / low carbon economics & markets

• Air quality, transport, health:

• Water quality, resources,

• Resource efficiency and waste

• Environment & economic development

• Environment & regeneration

• Environment & finance sectors

• Environment & retail sectors

• Land use and land quality

• Feeding the city-region

• Constructing the city-region

• Mobilising the city-region

• Peak oil and the city-region

• Sustainable tourism, leisure

• Sustainable events

• Sustainable consumption & production:

• Environment & public services

• Environment & demographic & social change

• Environment & new technology

• Environment & Education

• Multi-cultural social cohesion & the environment

Alternative models

• Café Scientifique model: this might enlarge and extend the GMEC policy exchange main meetings so far: general introductions / overviews & agenda setting from both sides

• Institutional model : (e.g. Malmo): a dedicated partnership organization, with funding & specific mission for active research-policy and teaching-training-policy agenda setting from both sides

• Foresight model: (as trialled at the GMEC first session): this aims at participative stakeholder-focused technically informed exploration of a multi-level theme or policy question. (e.g. UK foresight at the OSI).

teaching-training-policy collaboration, on a number of levels, organized around the core theme of ‘sustainable urban development’.

• Thematic model (e.g. Freiburg): focused on a thematic cluster of research programmes & projects in sustainable urban development

Possible risks & barriers

PRACTICAL

• Cost of doing anything in finance / human resource

• Universities are not organized to meet policy requirements, and work on different level.

• STRUCTURAL

and work on different level.

• Policy-makers go to consultants if they need expert & timely advice ‘to order’

• Uncertainties for all public organizations & priority of short term survival.

University of British Columbia

• Social Capacity building model: (e.g. UBC, Vancouver): a combined programme of knowledge resources / technical tools / learning processes / research

• This example also ties in a large scale physical demonstration of a low carbon zero waste campus: organized in 2 parallel streams - campus as a living laboratory of processes / research

programmes / stakeholder capacity building programmes:

• based on ‘relational knowledge’ concept (i.e. that useful knowledge is a co-production process more than a report on a shelf or paper in the library).

as a living laboratory of sustainability (CLL), and university as agent of change in the community (AOC) (www.sustain.ubc.ca).

University of British Columbia

Channels Modes of Engagement Evaluation

• Monitoring

Pu

bli

c E

ve

nts

/ S

oc

ial

Me

dia

Content

• Attend• Join• Subscribe

Mobile Applications

Gre

en

es

t C

ity

20

20

Go

als

Workshops

Q1. Who is invited and who participates?

Q2. How do they participate? Q4. What are their policy preferences?

• Monitoring• Voting• Survey• Interviews

Pu

bli

c E

ve

nts

/ S

oc

ial

Me

dia

• Subscribe• Play• Express• Converse• Contribute• Create

Tabletop Games

Online Fora

Performance Art

Public

Gre

en

es

t C

ity

20

20

Go

als

Q3. How do different media support their engagement?

6. Conclusions

Intelligent cities in practice

• GOALS - Shared intelligence – creative innovation networks: plus responsive structures & organizations

• ENTREPRENEURIAL INTELLIGENCE: looks for added value in social / ecological / financial innovation

• PARTNERSHIP • RESOURCES –

emerging forms of network / ‘meshwork’ governance & investment

• PROCESSES -Institutions, policies, programmes, to enable & promote creative innovation.

• PARTNERSHIP INTELLIGENCE : look for opportunities in ‘communities of interest’ - organizations & networks

• COGNITIVE INTELLIGENCE: enhance functional information & learning for shared tasks: ( ICT /social tech can help…. )

Applications - urban intelligence

Wow - so this is

eco-intelligence in

action !! .. and

how does it work?

Basically it’s about

connections. We connect

between different parts

of the ecological cycle.

Then we connect these

with different layers of

the economic system.

Ok but - who

gets to decide

on these

connections -

and what if

there are

winners or losers?

The whole city decides,

in a deliberative eco-

intelligence foresight

network …. With this we

can begin to reduce

extreme differences of

wealth and poverty, with

a better balance of

economic, social and

ecological systems.

Thank you... (thinking in progress)

“World’s largest feasibility study” – linking spatial, economy, environment,

society, governance.

“World’s largest organization strategy” –

shared intelligence for the relational economy

“Environment and the City” - critical

perspectives on the urban environment around the world

End

Applications of Wi-We approach

FORWARD PLANNING: apply to institution / program /

S.T.I. POLICY:

systems

S.T.I. POLICY: apply to research programmes, research methods, knowledge

systems Strategic knowledge

Strategic policy

From action towards shared intelligence

FUTURE

longer term change

PAST

shorter term change

RISK MANAGEMENT: apply to risk / hazard /

vulnerability / resilience

apply to institution / program / project management systems

Exploring potential wild cards: with ,

with shorter/ longer ‘wild situations’

Scanning for relevant weak signals:

exploring ambiguous information on wild

cards

Strategic policy

Strategic management

"Urban Foresight as a Tool to Help Decision-making"

• 1. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui

identifier des enjeux de long terme

alors que nombreux sont ceux qui

pensent que la difficulté de

percevoir le changement lointain

s'accroît ?


1. Long term vs short term

• Focus on futures / prospectives / wild cards to explore the dynamics of the short term.... Create multi-functional / multi-actor value chains which link short to long term• 2. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui

construire des visions collectives

pour un avenir commun dans des

métropoles de plus en plus

peuplées mais qui nous

paraissent pourtant de plus en

plus anonymes ?


articuler ces enjeux de long terme

et ces visions collectives pour

construire des stratégies crédibles

et appropriables par les grands

décideurs ?

which link short to long term

2. Collective vs anonymous?

• Creative thinking emerging from fragmented communities to find opportunities on multiple levels

3. Grassroots vs higher levels?

• urban foresight for collaborative strategy ... which builds value chains between decision-makers & others ... ‘meshworks’ from networks.

Actors

Governance & public

sector Social sector

Financial sector

Whose problems / opportunities?

sector sector

Infra structure

Energy / carbon

sector

Consumers &

citizens

Business sector


Sectors Which parts of the economy & society are

involved?

Farming & food chain

Financial services

Procurement (public

services)Non-profit /

Construction &

engineering

Retail & distribution

food chain

Transport

Energy & utilities

Households (final

demand)

Non-profit / social sector

Manufacturing

Factors

Fiscal policy

framework

International

agreements

Energy /

What are the driving forces / pressures / underlying conditions?

Communitframework

s carbon markets

Employment & skills

Innovation &

technology deployment

Community & social enterprise

Public attitudes

Investment for

infrastructure

Specific issues

Strategy issues:

• Energy / carbon scenarios & modelling

Market issues:

Infrastructure issues

• Embedded energy / CHP

• Grid smartening

• Public transport

• Electric carsMarket issues:

• Carbon pricing for policy

• ETS

• CRC

• Labelling / benchmark / footprinting

• Public procurement

• Electric cars

Social issues

• Public attitudes & awareness raising

• Resources & enabling

• Household investment & return

Scenario modelling e.g.

Implications

Scientific knowledge for policy:

• Energy / carbon

modelling & boundary

Policy knowledge for science:

• Organizational

dynamicsmodelling & boundary

analysis

• Opportunity &

scenario modelling

• Upcoming technology

& innovation

dynamics

• Structures of

responsibility &

decision making

• Investment & return

• Needs & opportunities

Issue / knowledge mapping

• This aims at a practical

output & outcome

• Follows a ‘mapping’

approach in subgroups….

(as encouraged by

• What are the key ‘issues’ ? – (questions,

debates, uncertainties,

dilemmas)

• What do we need to (as encouraged by

facilitators )

• This responds to inputs:

10 minute briefings from

experts on each side.

Each briefing should

focus on 3 strands -

• What do we need to know from the ‘other side’ ?- (i.e. policy /

research)

• How to take these issues forward ? -(practical actions)

Example – climate adaptation agenda 1

• Building up a ‘mapping’ of this complex agenda

• Starts with the practical - the city-practical - the city-region and its buildings (housing / commercial)

• Thinks about climate impacts

• Thinks about driving forces


• Adds on specific climate change pressures

• Adds on ‘responses’ –design, planning, design, planning, engineering, infrastructure, building usages


• Adds on external context – economic, social, political…

• Adds on underlying factors – social, factors – social, cultural, organizational, etc…


• Identify the areas where policy has good knowledge

• Identify the areas where policy needs where policy needs better knowledge


• Explore issues where research has good knowledge

• Explore issues where research needs better research needs better knowledge


• Putting it together –identify areas of opportunity for exchange & further actionaction

• Specific policy issues, e.g.green infrastructure, Indicator 188 etc

• Specific research issues, e.g. social resilience, critical infrastructure, stock management etc.

Climate mitigation agenda

• Built environment issues (planning,

housing, property,

construction,

infrastructure)

• Trends, targets and challenges: (global

targets & agreements,

national / regional

targets, risks, resilience, infrastructure)

• Economic and social issues (environment sector,

carbon markets,

lifestyle &

community)

targets, risks, resilience,

innovation

• “the greatest market

failure in the world” ..

• “100 months to save the

planet”…

• “4 degrees by 2060 ?”

Em

erg

en

t (‘

an

tici-

pati

ng

’)

Scenario development:

Success / normative

scenario: apply Road-mapping / policy scenario:

Foresight methods & Wi-We resources

longer term

change shorter term

Scoping futures: generate wild cards to test boundaries:

confirm & validate with weak signals

development: apply wild cards

as checks on reality &

robustness

scenario: apply wild cards as

reality & robustness

checks

policy scenario: scan weak signals for

opportunities & threats

Strategic planning:

continuous Wi-We scans to

enhance shared intelligence

Scoping capacities: scan weak signals to

assess resources, Strengths & Weaknesses

Explore potential for

capacity development, with wild card

Develop opportunities

with combined Wi-We reality

testing

Form strategies & action programs

with weak signals of Opportunities

& Threats

Ongoing resource development with

periodic Wi-We scans for shared

intelligence

Concept map

Learning / foresight / synergicity

Technical CO2 mapping

Technical CO2 intelligence

What is a city? What is an urban

system

Economic & value mapping

Governance & institution

Socio-cultural mapping

Systems of data / information / knowledge /

intelligence

Economic & value intelligence

Governance intelligence

Socio-cultural intelligence

Policy integration – local examplewww.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk


Landscape owners & managers

ROLE OF ECONOMIC PLANNING ….

• Public / private /

social collaboration &

investment

Education & health

SMEs & tourism

Local democracy

NGOs & social enterprise

Local markets

investment

• Knowledge

networking

• Innovation &

enterprise

• Enabler & facilitator:

• Steward of resources:

Policy integration – climate benefitswww.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk


Landscape owners & managers Climate

adaptation strategies

Climate benefits

Education & health

SMEs & tourism

Local democracy

NGOs & social enterprise

Local markets

Local renewable energy

Climate resilience through social

cohesion

Reduction in food chain miles & processing

impacts

“INTELLIGENT ADAPTIVE SYSTEM”

“COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM”

“COMPLEX SYSTEM”

Co-intelligence

Co-evolution

Co-production

Synergicity – capacity for emergence of creative action, strategic thinking & shared intelligence

Synergicity & relational thinking

Who / what /

why levels STEEP

levels

External outputs / impacts

(Co-dependency)

Shorter term

pressure

Longer term

change

Structural

shifts

External drivers /

pressures / inputs

RELATIONAL SYSTEM

Robustness / resilience

for shorter term

Adaptive capacity

for longer term

Conscious & strategic

innovation

Responses & feedbacks

Cultural theory

certainty style & risk

aversePUBLIC SECTOR: HIERARCHISTS

CONSUMERS & FATALISTS

General outline of human types in cultural theory. (‘NGO’ = ‘non governmental organization’). Source: adapted from Douglas & Wildavsky 1986; Thomson 1994.

collectivist approach

NGO SECTOR: EGALITARIANS

PRIVATE SECTOR: PIONEERS

uncertainty style & risk

individualist approach

Synergicity & relational thinking

• CONCEPT:

• Synergicity –

“collaborative capital” –

co-evolutionary capacity

for creative action,

• METHOD:

• Relational-Emergent Mapping (REM) for analysis

of problems, & creative

solutions. for creative action,

strategic thinking &

shared intelligence. (i.e.

‘capacity to move towards

synergy in working

together & thinking

together’).

•

solutions.

• ‘relational’ systems – based

on inter-connections and

inter-dependency;

• ‘emergent’ systems – based

on capacity for self-

organization & co-evolution

towards shared intelligence.

Greater Manchester

• Each of the major environmental problems is challenging – there are many unresolved questions & controversies – scientific, social, economic and political;

• unique opportunity for the research universities to contribute to the test bed of Greater Manchester: and likewise for the policy experience to contribute to the social, economic and political;

• Greater Manchester has one of the largest concentrations of environment / climate / energy expertise in Europe. It is also aiming to be a leader in environment / sustainability policy.

experience to contribute to the research capability.

• The GM Environment Commission Policy Exchange programme is a first step towards a longer term model for collaborative learning and knowledge-based innovation, between researchers & teachers, and policymakers & stakeholders in the city-region.

Informed Cities Forum 2011 Shared intelligece for the Urban Century Joe Ravetz

Technology

urban policy

intoan urban system

edge city ruralurban

real city

intelligent city

losewhole city

informed city

multiple systems