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Information and Communication Technologies in the next decade: Strategic issues Jean-Pierre CONTZEN IST,Lisboa March 19, 2004

Mar 29, 2015

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Information and Communication Technologies in the next decade: Strategic issues Jean-Pierre CONTZEN IST,Lisboa March 19, 2004 Slide 2 Information and Communication Technologies in the 21 st Century (1) The importance of ICTs in the development of the Knowledge Based Society of the 21 st Century is undisputable. Nations that wish to promote human development and to remain integrated in the world stream must master the ICTs, at least in some strategic areas. The evil of the Digital Divide adds to the problems related to achieving a balanced development of nations within a globalized environment. Slide 3 Information and Communication Technologies in the 21 st Century (2) Some benefits of ICTs: Well harnessed information technologies can enable countries to leapfrog, share experiences, and promote cross-fertilization of ideas (World Development Report 1998-1999: Knowledge for Development) Provide better access to the worlds knowledge, facilitate education and training Stabilize people in their homeland Slide 4 Information and Communication Technologies in the 21 st Century (3) Some benefits of ICTs (cont.): Accelerate economic development: e-business should not be the monopoly of the more affluent countries. ICTs allow the offer for a thinking force on the world market. Augment social services, notably in the health field. Tele-medicine has a tremendous potential Slide 5 Information and Communication Technologies in the 21 st Century (4) Some benefits of ICTs (cont.): The example of India in the promotion of e- business: The ICICI Mumbai-based private bank offers ATM services to people owning more than 22$ per month. No card, fingerprint recognition. The State Bank of India has computerized its 11,600 branch offices Slide 6 Information and Communication Technologies in the 21 st Century (5) Some benefits of ICTs (cont.): Contribute to food security through IT based land management and agro-ecosystems modeling. Foster cultural development and provide an element of leisure to all people. Slide 7 Information and Communication Technologies in the 21 st Century (6) Some misdeeds of ICTs: Threat to national cultures. Vulnerability to Cyber-crime. Threat to privacy. Propagation of low cultural value messages (pornography, www.restrooms.org, etc)www.restrooms.org Computer software replacing judgment and knowledge. Increase of the inequality for those who dont master ICTs. Slide 8 Mastering ICTs (1) What are the strategic issues for a further spread of ICTs in the future, notably to lower income countries? The race for ever increased performances and miniaturization should be accompanied by a similar race for cost reduction. Is the user-friendly 10 $ computer an utopia? The three essential areas of hardware, software and applications have to progress in parallel. Slide 9 Mastering ICTs (2) Hardware: Components requiring further developments: Processors Memories of all types Input/Output interfaces (telecoms, voice actuation, optical converters) Communication links, land or space Energy supplies Slide 10 Mastering ICTs (3) Hardware (cont.): Future computer systems and infrastructures: In the long term, will optical, quantum and DNA computers supersede the current electronic systems? A way to remove soft errors in semiconductor memories? In the shorter time, will computers further shrink in size? Does the evolution in notebooks and mobile platforms lead to the end of the desktop? Will the wearable computer be a reality in a few decades? Slide 11 Mastering ICTs (4) Hardware (cont.): Future computer systems and infrastructures (cont.): Will the mainframe return at the expense of servers? The server market was significantly down in the last two years while the mainframe maintained its position. Slide 12 Mastering ICTs (5) Hardware (cont.): Future computer systems and infrastructures (cont.): Will computing power, in all its aspects of data acquisition, processing and storage, be available one day on-line just as water, gas or electricity provided by utilities? Will grid technology that constitutes already an inevitable technology for e-Science lead to the generalized concept of utility computing? Slide 13 Mastering ICTs (6) Hardware (cont.): The requirement for grid technology: reducing computing time The example of a 0.1 degree grid for ocean dynamics simulation over long periods of time: for a century of evolution, it requires 28 days computing on the most powerful machine available today, the Earth Simulator (Japan). With most of the current CPUs devoted to scientific computing, it would require 850 days. The objective for the future is a Peta scale grid : One Petaflops for operations and 10 Petabytes of storage. Slide 14 Mastering ICTs (7) Hardware (cont.): An example of grid technology: the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) computing grid. One single LHC detector (ATLAS) will produce, after 2007, 2 Petabytes per second of raw data; filtering leaves 320 Megabytes per second of data, requiring a yearly storage of 10 Petabytes. The data from the LHC will be stored on 10 000 commodity servers with 1 Terabyte of storage. On-demand access to LHC data will be provided world- wide. Slide 15 Mastering ICTs (8) Hardware (cont.): Communication infrastructures: the battle for broadband access. Is it essential? 100 pages file: 34 Mb/s = 0.5 s; 64 kb/s = 30s Color photo high quality: 34 Mb/s = 1.5 s; 64 kb/s = 15min. 5 min. full screen video: 34 Mb/s = 25 min.; 64 kb/s = 9 days The tools available for broadband: satellite, coaxial cable, optical fibers, local radio, copper wire with ADSL Slide 16 Mastering ICTs (9) Hardware (cont.): Communication infrastructures: the access to Internet for all: Develop broadband networks but NOT at the expense of geographical coverage that remains the priority Reduce the cost of utilization Wireless networks Solve the energy supply problem Slide 17 Mastering ICTs (10) Hardware (cont.): Computing and Communications together: the do-it-all cell phone: Internet access Credit card Photo camera: Camera cell phones have exceeded in sales already in 2003 the digital still cameras! Slide 18 Source: STERN 10/2004 Slide 19 Mastering ICTs (11) Hardware (cont.): Computing and Communications together: the competition between the laptop, the Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) and the cell phone: NORTEL Canada currently saves 22 M$ on a 4.7 M$ investment by asking employees to make phone calls on soft phones rather than cell phones Current Microsoft based smart phones synchronize e-mail diary and contacts like a PDA. The competition will be essentially on prices (P800 smart phone as expensive as fully equipped PDA) Slide 20 Mastering ICTs (12) Software: The battle for free, open source software. The example of Thailands government program The growth in efficiency in parallel supercomputing, going beyond several tens of Teraflops Complex modeling: Bioinformatics will equal defense and climate/weather applications in terms of requirements Slide 21 Mastering ICTs (13) Software (cont.): The increased attention devoted to I/O interfaces such as speech The expansion of virtual reality The evolution towards the semantic web The improvement of artificial intelligence, robotics, expert systems, pattern recognition Slide 22 Mastering ICTs (14) Software (cont.): The development of data handling, storage and retrieval, the need for data mining The development of tools for the digitalization of peoples own memorabilia: Google your self , visual diary of people. The exchange of information using peoples own languages. Slide 23 Mastering ICTs (15) Software and hardware: All the developments previously described require a sustained attention being given to the question of standards. Standard interfaces, standard protocols constitute the necessary condition for the transparency of the future computing environment and for the future of the global cell phone. Is it an area where too many organizations are dealing with the issue? Slide 24 Mastering ICTs (16) The most important applications for economic and social development: E- learning E- health E-elderly care E- business E- agriculture E- risk management E- government Slide 25 Analyzing the Digital Divide (1) Only a handful of nations can pretend mastering all the ICTs just described. The exponential development of these technologies increases the difficulty for the other nations to maintain their active involvement in the process. Four aspects of the digital divide: The concentration of supercomputing power The inequality in Internet use The uneven growth of e-Commerce The language issue Slide 26 Analyzing the Digital Divide (2) In the world, among the 500 best equipped sites (based on total capability of supercomputers, operations and memory), 51% are in the US. Together with the European Union and Japan, they concentrate more than 90% of global supercomputing. (source: www.top500.org) 20 nations provide more than 90% of the worlds active Internet users (see next table). The Internet use per capita varies from 0.7 in Sweden to 0.0007 in Nigeria. (source: CIAs World Fact book 2003) Slide 27 Analyzing the Digital Divide (3) CountryPopulationInternet users United States280.5 M165.7 M Brazil176 M13.9 M Nigeria129.9 M100 000 France59.76 M16.97 M Sweden8.9 M6.02 M Oman2.7 M120 000 Armenia3.3 M30 000 Slide 28 Analyzing the Digital Divide (4) Such aggregate figures are useful but do not reflect the digital divide within the countries. In India, for example, 60% of the 2 million Internet users are concentrated in 3 States: Maharastra, Delhi and Tamil Nadu. Slide 29 Analyzing the Digital Divide (5) The total e-Commerce in 2003 will amount to about 4 Trillions $, with a predicted growth to 6.8 Trillions $ in 2004. 59% are in the US, 21% in Western Europe and 18% in the Asia Pacific region. 2% are left for the rest of the world. (source: Forrester Research, Inc; http://glreach.com) Slide 30 Analyzing the Digital Divide (6) In te